Wednesday, March 13, 2013
NHLPA math fail
When the NHLPA agreed to the new CBA of 50% of revenue instead of 57%, this automatically meant a 12% rollback in wages. In their last full-season, they earmarked 8.5% of their wages for escrow. This means that NHL and NHLPA should have agreed to withholding 20% in escrow. (Either that, or rollback everyone's wages by 12%, and earmark 8% in escrow.)
But they didn't do that:
The NHL and NHL Players' Association have agreed to change this season's escrow rate to 20 percent, sources confirmed to ESPN.com.
That's up from the 10 percent rate both sides had agreed upon in late January shortly after the season began.
Pierre Lebrun, usually a smart cookie, instead says this as the explanation:
The change comes as a result of lower than originally projected NHL revenues for the lockout-shortened season.
No, that's not true. At all. Last year, they collected 3.3 billion, and without the lockout, we would have expected them to be at 3.5 billion for the 2012-13 season. But, the lockout has knocked out 41% of the REGULAR season, and probably about 35% of the revenue stream (0% of playoffs ?are knocked out naturally, so, we'd expect them to lose less than 41%). So, if the 3.5 billion was the original expectation, then probably about 65% of that is the expectation for the shortened-season. That means maybe 2.3 billion$ is our expectation. And what did I see published last week? 2.4 billion$. So, revenue expectations are in-line.
NHPA agreeing to 10% escrow was just delaying the inevitable sticker shock to its member. Most players have no idea how escrow works, and this just makes it worse.
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