Monday, March 27, 2023
NHL Draft, using the Gold Points
There is a rather clever standings model proposed by Adam Gold (@winunlimited). If we apply a small variation: a team, starting at the all-star break, declares whether they will forego a run at the Stanley Cup, and instead make a ran for the top draft pick (Connor Bedard, let's say).
At the all-star break, courtesy of data provided by the kind and generous @domluszczyszyn, eleven teams had almost no shot at the Stanley Cup. Those teams would all declare they are giving up on the Cup and are all-in on the Draft (aka, the Bedard sweepstakes). Every game now counts toward the Draft.
The wonderful thing about the Gold points (besides the amazingly great name so we're lucky that Adam is named Gold) is that every win counts toward something. Tanking is a thing of the past.
Two games after the All-star break, the Sabres would also likely declare themselves for the Draft. The Sabres went on a decent run there for a while, winning 5 of 6, and so was able to get into the Gold Standings pretty well, even though they will end up having a couple of fewer games than the rest. At some point in early to mid March, the Capitals would also have declared.
If things went as above, this is how the Gold Standings look:
Gold TEAM
30 Vancouver Canucks
29 Arizona Coyotes
24 Ottawa Senators
23 St. Louis Blues
21 Detroit Red Wings
20 Buffalo Sabres
20 Chicago Blackhawks
20 Montréal Canadiens
19 Anaheim Ducks
19 Columbus Blue Jackets
17 Philadelphia Flyers
12 San Jose Sharks
7 Washington Capitals
As you can see, the Canucks and the Coyotes would be fighting for Bedard (or whoever they want). And every game becomes important. And this is true whether you go for the Cup or not.
The Predators and Flames would be the next teams to try to figure out when they'd declare for the draft.
One note: while I said "all star game", we'd probably have to make it something like "after 50 games" or something. At the all-star break, games played ranged from 48 to 54, so naturally, you couldn't use the date, since the number of future games would not be the same when everyone has the chance to declare. Just a matter of selecting the game number. You don't want it too early. Probably 41 games (halfway point) is the fewest games before you declare for the Draft.
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