Monday, July 15, 2013
More opportunities to hit a HR
One of the "unfair" things about baseball is that the batting order makes it so that each lineup slot gets an average of 18 fewer plate appearances than the previous slot, per 162 games. (*) Schoenfield asks:
One thing working against Davis, however, is that Buck Showalter continues to hit Davis fifth in the order, choosing to bat Adam Jones cleanup between lefties Nick Markakis and Davis. That will cost Davis plate appearances over the season -- an estimated 30 over the entire year, if he was hitting third instead of fifth -- and those 30 missing PAs could be the difference between 59 and 62. With Matt Wieters not having a great year behind him, Davis may also start receiving more walks (although July has produced his lowest walk rate of the season, so pitchers haven't been pitching around him).
If I remember right, Larussa moved McGwire to the 2-hole to try to maximize his plate appearances near the end of the season. (Easy enough to confirm, for someone out there.) If Davis' true talent level is somewhere between .06 and .07 HR / PA, and with 66 games to go, the difference between batting third and fifth is .222 x 66 x .065 = 1 HR. Is it worth it to chase a statistical record, by slotting players as if you can just move them around, even if players may have a preference, thereby cancelling out the advantage of the extra PA? And, aren't there any players on the team to worry over, besides this statistical (non-team) chase? We're talking about upsetting whatever balance is supposed to exist among his players, in order to give one of his players one extra HR (at the cost of his other players something else).
(*) Math question: can someone tell me why the answer is always "average of 18", regardless of how m?any innings there are in a game?
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