Tuesday, April 29, 2014
Momentum, schmomentum
This is for NHL, but it should apply generally speaking.?
Specifically, I looked at all games tied either 1-1, 2-2, or 3-3, and calculated the likelihood of the home team scoring the next goal, conditional on the previous sequences of goals. ... For example, the home team scores more often after sequence AH than sequence HA (54.3%, versus 52.1%), suggesting a slight increase in goal likelihood for the team that tied the game at 1-1.
However, home teams appear to score more often in 2-2 and 3-3 games when they don’t have any supposed momentum, as opposed to when they do (that’s comparing sequence HHAA versus AAHH, and sequence HHHAAA versus AAAHHH).
The home goal rate after sequence HHAA is 54.4%, for example, while the rate after sequence AAHH is 52.7%. If home teams have momentum after scoring two goals to tie the game at 2-2, they certainly don’t play like it.
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