Friday, May 10, 2013
Matching relievers to leverage
This blogger has the right idea, but unfortunately, he uses the wrong tool. He quotes James Click from BPro's Between the Numbers, which was released at the same time as The Book, on "FRA". I did not know (or didn't remember) that they had a metric ?called FRA then, and the description offered is not at all the current defintion (which the regular Straight Arrow readers know I've questioned on a few occasions). The description as quoted sounds alot like RE24 that you will find at Fangraphs and BR.com. Now, he did correctly use the LI found at Fangraphs (though you can make a case to go with inLI as opposed to gmLI, but going with gmLI is definitely a good choice).
The other issue is that he used current-season FRA and matched to current-season gmLI. A better way to do this is to take the pitcher's performance over the previous 365 days, and match it to his gmLI of that day. That's alot more work, but at least you will be matching on prior information only. Even so, because we are talking about relievers, random variation will abound.
Anyway, would love to see some aspiring saberists do this work.
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