Mariners Analysis

Is Melvin the problem?

Lots of talk about Melvin right now, but how much can we pin the horrific start to the manager? How much better would the M's be if Lou were the manager?

It's hard to see how a more experienced manager could get Ichiro to play like he did two years ago, or Olerud to stop the aging process, or Pinero to pitch better, or....

The slow start is clearly pinned on the players. While I fault Melvin for his use of the bullpen, where roles don't seem to be clearly defined, this is not causing this team to play at a .300 clip. The primary blame clearly lies on the players, who are simply not producing at their expected level.

So in order of importance I put the fault on the slow start clearly on the players. I secondly blame the front-office for not adjusting to an aging team with obvious holes that were not filled. And a distant third I blame an inexperienced manager who should have never been given the go ahead to learn on-the-job while managing this team.

If Melvin is a big-league caliber manager, he should be considering changes if the M's keep losing. If I don't see these changes, then Melvin becomes a bigger problem then he is today.

Downward spiral continues for M's

It's hard to even watch these games. There are so many easy outs on this team it must be equally demoralizing to the pitchers as it is to the fans. I have a feeling the bats will eventually come alive and string some nice games together. The question is how many games under .500 will they be when they do.

The Seattle Mariners are one of the worst teams in baseball right now. It's been a while since we could say that, and I think the window for this team just closed shut in the first month of the '04 season. A team that won 116 games in 2001 is about to be ripped apart, and never achieved its goal of getting to the world series. I just can't see a team with aging veterans like Martinez, Olerud and Wilson generating enough passion to turn this season around. I look for the M's to start talking about "getting younger" after starting the season praising its veterans. Count on it.

Perhaps the most surprising start to this season has the been the bullpen. Before the season I thought the M's did a nice job of putting together one of the strongest in baseball- with Shiggy and Soriano setting up Eddy, and Mateo coming off a nice season, who could have imagined the problems we see today. I also agreed 100% with jettisoning Rhodes and Nelson, who both suffered huge drop-offs in production last year.

BTW, can anyone make heads or tails about Melvin's bullpen use? I can't tell in what situation a particular player comes in, and when they come out. It seems to be musical chairs after the 6th inning. In defense of Melvin, the players haven't been doing their job, but I still question his calls to the 'pen. He had better get this straightened out quickly or it will be Exhibit A among fans on why Melvin has to go. More on this to come...

Terrible bullpen, worst starting ERA in the AL, no power, poor defense, no speed, lousy batting average... I can't think of a single positive start to the season, with the possible exception of Wilson, who we know will end up hitting .260 if he's lucky by the end of the year.

What can we say, the team stinks. About the best we can hope for is a situation like the Washington Huskies men's basketball team had this year- last in the Pac-10, and then reel off a huge winning streak to turn around the season.

Is this team capable of putting together a winning streak?

M's offensive woes predictable in 3-1 loss to Baltimore

While the beat writers are focusing on the poor luck of the Mariners this season- they hit when they are behind, they don't hit when they get good pitching- the offensive problems are completely predictable.

This team is not scoring runs because it has no power-- which we knew was a problem all along!!

The M's are so dependent on stringing together hits to score runs, with the piss poor batting averages on this team what we saw last night in a 3-1 loss to Baltimore is hardly surprising. Can anyone remember the last extra-base hit for this team? When will we see Ichiro standing on second again?

The front office put together an aging, slow club with little power potential. This team will only go as far as their pitching will take them, and we should expect to see plenty of great pitching performances this year go for naught due to this teams everyday players.

Let's face it, when Dan Wilson is your best hitter, you're going to see problems like we saw last night.

Jarvisgate?

The recent stories confirming what many of us feared- that Jarvis was on the roster due to idiotic upper management problems- is reason to question Melvin's management skills, or the gall of the front office.

We can now confidently say that Jarvis was on the roster for completely non-baseball reasons. The M's didn't want to eat the salary, so they foolishly forced the coach and staff to keep a player they didn't want. This is idiot move #1

We can only imagine the eruption that would occur if Mt. Piniella was still active in the NW. The closest scenario I can think of quickly would be when Luis Ugueto was forced on Lou as a Rule-5 project.

But Lou's not here, so let's put ourselves in Melvin's shoes for a second. You know Jarvis stinks, you know the person who signs your paycheck is telling you to play him, and you are in the final guaranteed year of your contract. (I think at this point we all know why the M's didn't hire Dusty Baker.) Melvin, being the perfect company man, took it in the tailpipe and went into opening day with Jarvis in the 'pen.

Now if we were in Melvin's shoes, what would WE  do with Jarvis?

The answer is very straightforward. You bury him so deep on your bench he only sees time in hopeless games, and at the first sign of trouble you yank him. He is the LAST person who sees quality pitching time.

But is this what Melvin did? No, he played him regularly, and he was often the first long reliever off the bench. Remember the 3 home runs Jarvis gave up? He gave up huge runs in key games preventing possible comebacks in the first weekend of the season!! IMO, Julio Mateo was an outstanding reliever last year. Yet Jarvis logged more innings than Mateo. How in the world can Melvin justify playing Jarvis over Mateo??? Idiot move #2

So is Melvin a terrible manager, or is the front office not only telling the coaching staff who plays, BUT WHEN??

Either way, how likely is a turnaround this season with either a bad manager, a bad front office, or both??

And how will players react when they hear the front office was willing to sacrifice games early over some ego in the front office surrounding the Cirillo situation??

This situation stinks, M's fans. There is no way around it, and if you're not fired up over it you have even less passion than what we're seeing on the field.

Freddy Garcia to the Yankees?

With the M's off to one of the worst starts in franchise history, it cannot go unnoticed to the Mariners front office that another team is off to a slow start- the Yankees.

While the Yankees are not hitting, it is reasonable to assume Giambi, Jeter, Williams etc... will break out of their slump. It is the Yankees pitching woes that should be intriguing to both M's fans, and their front office. While both Brown and Vazquez have been effective, Mussina and Contreras have struggled mightily. The Yanks don't even have a viable 5th starter, which goes to show how little $180 million will get you these days.

So while I wouldn't expect Garcia to be in pinstripes next week, I do expect the rumors to begin immediately. A quick check of the Yankees farm system shows little to interest M's fans, and the Yankees starting line-up doesn't offer any rising young stars the M's would covet.

This is where Bavasi can establish himself as an effective GM. Can you say three-way trade M's fans?

If the M's are creative, something they have not shown themselves to be in the past, they can use the current crisis in NY to their advantage. While not many teams are willing to make a trade this early in the season, you start laying the groundwork early. Like now.

It's time for Bavasi to have Cashman's number speed-dialed in his phone. If you have some ideas on who the M's should target (Beltran?) let's hear 'em!

Jarvis to minors

Kevin Jarvis, who should have never been on this club, was sent to the minors today. As was mentioned earlier in the year, it was a complete embarrassment to the organization that he was on the opening day roster.
I'm a firm believer that you must allow for players in the minors to think they have a realistic chance of making it in the show. When you take a roster spot from one of your kids for one reason- money, and are willing to lose games in the hope you might get a taker later in the season, you deserve to see a game like yesterday.

I hope Lincoln was watching yesterdays game and thought, hmmm.... maybe we could have at least interviewed   Baker last year. LOL

M's defense improved?

With everyone jumping all over the M's defense during the first 10 games, I want to hear why the M's pitchers have been so effective the past four games. Is it in spite of the defense? Has the defense improved somehow? I thought Franklin's ERA was going to jump without Cameron (3.15 today), so who forgot to tell him?

As I've said before, defense is not going to be the reason the M's don't make the playoffs. Is it worse than last year? Yes. But I would rate defensive issues below an aging lineup, no position player development and lack of power, just to name a few.

Mariners win in marathon

It's hard to know how long last nights 14 inning marathon would have gone on if a Mariner hit with RISP was required. After all, it's not often you see two teams strand 33 runners in a 2-1 game, and have it end on a balk!! I had to leave in the 10th as the kids had school the next morning, but it will be a game I remember for some time.

But that's what makes baseball fun- some games you see something you'd never imagine possible.

Some highlights include outstanding pitching by Garcia. He didn't have his best stuff, but he battled and really mixed up his pitches. His pitch count was really high early in the game, and I thought he'd be done after 5, but he settled down later and seem to get stronger as the game went on. Big kudos to Wilson who I thought called a great game.

With the offense struggling all night, it's easy to be overly critical, but I'll just say it was impossible to watch last nights game and not be reminded of last year- good pitching, lousy hitting, no power.

Now standing at 5-8, the M's can start to see a little light at the end of the tunnel. As I have mentioned before, the number of improved teams this year make it hard for a team to run away early. Even the mighty Yanks and Red Sox are hovering around the .500 mark.

Harden has struggled early, while Franklin has shown signs of taking his game to the next level. The key will be the bullpen, as both were decimated last night. Let's hope Franklin can eat up some innings, and Melvin tells the hitters to take pitches and work the count against Harden.

Looking forward to it already.

Mariners start Oakland series tonight
While it was nice to see Seattle beat Texas twice over the weekend, and provide a glimmer of hope, the series really illustrated what we all know-
This team relies entirely on pitching to win games.

With the possible exception of Oakland, I can't think of another AL team that depends as much on its starting pitching to win games. When Moyer and Pinero pitch well, as they did this weekend, they win. When they pitch poorly, as they both did their first two starts, the M's lose. We can talk defense, speed and power all we want, but it all comes down to pitching for the Mariners.

The optimist looks at the weekend and says the M's are starting to get clutch hits, and the pitching is coming around. The half-empty crowd says the M's scored a handful of runs against one of the worst pitching staffs in baseball, and expect to see empty sees grow at Safeco.

The series starting tonight against Oakland will tell us a lot about these M's. It will tell us if Freddy is able to bounce back from a bad start and continue to impress in a contract year. It will tell us if Franklin is continuing to prove he is one of the best #4 starters in baseball.

But it won't tell us the M's need good pitching to win- because we already knew that.

If ever there was at time for the M's to be pissed, today is the day. Making Chan Ho Park look like a Cy Young candidate is as low as you are going to get as an offense.

I'm sure fans remember last year when Park had his only decent game of the year against the M's. I know many fans have said it is not time to panic- I say that time is now.

If you lose tonight and tomorrow at home against the Rangers, you then have to face the A's starting Monday. I don't know if Rhodes will be as generous as he was last time- are we looking at a 3-12 start for the M's?

Mariners Win!
It's been too long since we were able to say that! Even Sunday's win was a little hollow; after all, it was against Rhodes, so it wasn't a "real" win. I mean c'mon, M's fans know better than anyone Rhodes blows it in the 9th when the pressure is on.
I have to hand it to Franklin. He pitched exactly his game- throw strikes, and trust your stuff. He deserved this win, and with better luck last year he could have had a Paul Abbot (17-4) season. You know, average pitcher who doesn't beat himself, and puts the ball in play.
This is the type of win this team could build on. Let's see if the improved pitching continues...

M's start season with highest ERA in AL

So much for predicting the M's would win last night. They were thoroughly outclassed in every possible way, and are clearly deserving of the 1-7 start. It was painful to watch, but if you are an M's fan, you have to admit the Angels are simply better (even with suspect starting pitching every 4th and 5th day).

It is hard to see this team pulling it together and beating Oakland or Anaheim for a postseason berth. While you can't win the division in April, you can sure lose it, and this season is slipping away. They need to quit playing Anaheim ASAP!

While the M's have the worst ERA in the AL, it is surprising to see Anaheim have the second worst. But when you look deeper, it makes sense- Anaheim has scored more runs than anyone in the AL (55) and played 4 games against Texas (who is second in the AL with 49). Things don't look to get any better for the M's, as you look at their schedule and it's hard to see where the easy wins will come during the next month. As I explained earlier, there are few "patsies" this year and the M's will have to come ready to play for every series. No room for "building arm strength" in the majors- got that Bob?

On the positive side, your division rivals are going to face improved teams as well. I don't see Anaheim or Oakland winning at a ridiculously high winning percentage, so if the M's can hang around .500 by the All Star break, they might be closer to the leaders than you think. They need to get some confidence back, and fix some glaring problems that have surfaced:

• Teams are running on our catchers at will. Anaheim has exposed a Seattle weakness, and every team will be watching those tapes and running. Currently 0-10 and counting.
  
• We have no speed. Ichiro is not stealing bases, and beyond that we have no team speed, even on the bench. Who votes for replacing Jarvis with a speed runner from our farm system?
  
• Hasegawa has given up 5 runs this year- it took until August 22nd of last year to give up 5 runs. If they cannot fix the bullpen fast, this team will continue to blow leads and sink the season. All we need is to look back on the Ayala years to remember how demoralizing a bad bullpen can be.
  
• Inconsistent starting pitching. No team wins the division when your 1, 2 and 4 pitchers stink.
  
• .... I could go on with 10 other things, but you can say that about every 1-7 team.

Let's see if Franklin can pull it together tonight and help eat up some innings- but against the Angels line-up, would we be anything but homers for thinking he will?

M's start season with highest ERA in AL

So much for predicting the M's would win last night. They were thoroughly outclassed in every possible way, and are clearly deserving of the 1-7 start. It was painful to watch, but if you are an M's fan, you have to admit the Angels are simply better (even with suspect starting pitching every 4th and 5th day).

It is hard to see this team pulling it together and beating Oakland or Anaheim for a postseason berth. While you can't win the division in April, you can sure lose it, and this season is slipping away. They need to quit playing Anaheim ASAP!

While the M's have the worst ERA in the AL, it is surprising to see Anaheim have the second worst. But when you look deeper, it makes sense- Anaheim has scored more runs than anyone in the AL (55) and played 4 games against Texas (who is second in the AL with 49). Things don't look to get any better for the M's, as you look at their schedule and it's hard to see where the easy wins will come during the next month. As I explained earlier, there are few "patsies" this year and the M's will have to come ready to play for every series. No room for "building arm strength" in the majors- got that Bob?

On the positive side, your division rivals are going to face improved teams as well. I don't see Anaheim or Oakland winning at a ridiculously high winning percentage, so if the M's can hang around .500 by the All Star break, they might be closer to the leaders than you think. They need to get some confidence back, and fix some glaring problems that have surfaced:

• Teams are running on our catchers at will. Anaheim has exposed a Seattle weakness, and every team will be watching those tapes and running. Currently 0-10 and counting.
  
• We have no speed. Ichiro is not stealing bases, and beyond that we have no team speed, even on the bench. Who votes for replacing Jarvis with a speed runner from our farm system?
  
• Hasegawa has given up 5 runs this year- it took until August 22nd of last year to give up 5 runs. If they cannot fix the bullpen fast, this team will continue to blow leads and sink the season. All we need is to look back on the Ayala years to remember how demoralizing a bad bullpen can be.
  
• Inconsistent starting pitching. No team wins the division when your 1, 2 and 4 pitchers stink.
  
• .... I could go on with 10 other things, but you can say that about every 1-7 team.

Let's see if Franklin can pull it together tonight and help eat up some innings- but against the Angels line-up, would we be anything but homers for thinking he will?

Freddy Garcia vs. Ramon Ortiz

For some reason I have a good feeling about tonights game. I look for the M's to win- even though they have shown no reason for me to have any optimism after the first 7 games.

I wonder if Lincoln and company have a hard time rooting for Garcia, knowing this is almost certainly his last season with the M's?

M's 1-6 after losing again to Anaheim
Didn't the M's look like two different teams last night?

In the first five innings, I saw the M's hitters taking pitches, making the opposing pitcher up the pitch count, being patient. I really thought I was seeing the M's teams I've been following the past 4 years. Joel was pitching much better, and you could see his confidence growing with every inning.

But everything came crashing down after Vladimir Guerrero hit that 2-run home run, golfing it out of here like he had a 7-iron instead of a bat. You could see Pineiro barking at Wilson that he couldn't believe Vlad got to that ball, and at the same time upset that he didn't have the ball up in the strike zone like Wilson wanted. After the game, Melvin was upset that the pitch was low, apparently referring to a spring game that the M's saw how Guerrero hits low pitches.

But you can't fault Pineiro for this, and I think this makes Melvin look stupid. The scouting report on Guerrero is that he is a free swinger who has the ability to hit for power from all over the strike zone. When Guerrero hits a pitch from his shoe tops over the fence, you tip your hat to a great hitter and move on. There's a reason Anaheim gave all that money to Guerrero, and we saw first hand last night why it paid off. I simply can't fault Pineiro for that pitch- he is learning what plenty of NL pitchers have learned over the years. Vladimir Guerrero is one of the best hitters in all of baseball, and he can change the momentum in a game single-handedly.

Did you notice the momentum immediately change after that? The Angels are now the team who expect to rally, who expect the key hit. The Mariner's use to market how this team couldn't care less there are two outs- that team is now the Angels. The Mariner's suddenly looked ordinary, and the place went wild in the late innings, looking like Safeco used to a few years ago.

It's as if the Angel's and M's switched personas.

And the M's are 1-6 and have the worst record in baseball.

Offseason moves
While we wait to see how Joel pitches tonight against Anaheim, I thought I'd look back at the moves the M's made, and the moves they didn't make over the offseason.
After the World Series, there were several areas that needed to be resolved before '04:
- Who is going to be your GM (would Gillick return)?
- Would Kaz return as the closer? (rumors he was interested in returning to Japan)
- How to fix the second-half collapse that doomed the M's to watching the postseason on TV the past two years.

The rumors around Gillick leaving had been on-going for several years, usually centered on the fact his wife remains in Toronto and Gillick was ready to return home. It was somewhat a surprise when Gillick announced he was indeed leaving, but not retiring from the game, and was open to future opportunities.

Right after the World Series, rumors intensified that several Japanese clubs were interested in negotiating with the M's to acquire Kaz. Usually where there is smoke there's fire, and we all know how this turned out. Too bad the M's couldn't have anticipated this better and used the money freed up to pursue free agents.

But the biggest news during the offseason was of course following who the M's pursued, and who they didn't pursue. With the collapse yet again during the year, the M's brass knew they had to make changes. The question was where to begin.

When you looked at the club, it was pretty obvious where they had options, and where they didn't. First and second with Olerud and Boone was locked up, as was Ichiro in right. Beyond that, anything should have been open for improvement.

Going into the offseason, I really felt the M's were going to sign Matsui as their new shortstop. In fact, I would have said there was an 80% chance, given all the positives.
- Young (M's are aging rapidly)
- Hits for power
- Great defense
- Doesn't require giving up draft picks to sign
- Great speed
- Great marketability with the Asian market
- Continues original idea to convert Guillen to third with Cirillo gone

However, not only did the M's not sign Matsui, they didn't even really become a serious player. There were rumors that Matsui did not want to play with Ichiro, but I haven't seen anything that officially verifies this, and don't believe this would prevent the M's from signing him. Given the reasonable price tag that Matsui signed with the Mets, it really made the lack of interest even more puzzling.

Instead, the M's announced they were focused on Tejada. Of course if you compared the two, it is not hard to see why the M's like Tejada over Matsui- he is a proven commodity, excellent leader in the clubhouse, and would show the fans the M's are not afraid to make a big splash in free agency. Of course the M's front office had to know that Tejada would not come cheap, and they appeared to be gambling the market would be soft and they could sign him far below market value.

As we now know, Tejada signed with Baltimore when the M's refused to pay top dollar for one of the top free agents in baseball. By putting all their eggs in Tejada, the M's suddenly seemed to go into a reactionary mode that made little sense to M's fans. Rather than looking at the available free agents and creating a new plan, the M's looked at the next available shortstop and reacted- acquiring Omar Vizquel from Cleveland. When the team needs to get younger and find a power bat, the M's trade for a 36 year old infielder coming off major injuries with no power!

Fortunately for the M's, Omar failed his physical. However, this led to plan D- the next best shortstop available was Rich Aurilia, so they traded Guillen to Detroit and signed Aurilia. Hard to call this an upgrade, but the M's went ahead, numbers be damned. The fact that Aurilia had remarkably similar numbers to Guillen, was older, and cost more money seemed to matter little to Bavasi, who is counting on Aurilia to build off his career year of 2001.

Combined with the signing of Ibanez in left, the M's had a new shortstop and a new left fielder, which contributed to the notion of shaking up the team that had faded the last two seasons.

What was interesting, but hardly surprising to those who follow the M's front office, was the complete lack of attention the M's showed to other free agents. Javy Lopez hit 43 home runs last year for Atlanta, but the M's had no interest, letting him sign with Baltimore after they outbid them for Tejada. Jose Cruz Jr., who would be a huge fan favorite and carried a modest price tag, was seemingly ignored. Vladimir Guerrero, the best free agent of them all- never considered. Pudge, looking for a 4 year deal- no chance. Jose Guillen, take your power and your arm somewhere else.

I find it crazy the M's are looking at Jason Kendall from the Pirates- no power, high price tag, injury prone, long contract, require giving up prospects, and yet never seriously considered Lopez.

I'd much rather have Matsui at short, Cameron or Winn in center, Carlos Guillen at third, Cruz or Jose Guillen in left, and possibly Lopez behind the plate. This is well within the budget, and wouldn't have required any long term contracts.

Bavasi better have a much stronger offseason next year if he wants to keep up with Anaheim and Oakland- or else expect to see a lot more empty seats at Safeco.

Why the M's will struggle to win 90 games this year (and why the Yankees won't win 100)
During the offseason, the American League saw a number of clubs make significant upgrades over the winter. Teams I would say are clearly better include:

Baltimore

Detroit

Anaheim

Tampa Bay

Toronto

Teams I would say are at least as strong as last year on paper, and are playoff caliber include:

• New York
  
• Boston
  
• Oakland
  
• Kansas City
  
• Minnesota
  

This isn't to say all these clubs will be good, but on paper they seem to be at least as good, and probably better than last year. The only teams you really wonder about are Cleveland, Texas and Chicago, who have the possibilty of being worse off than last year. ( I actually think Texas might be a surprise pick this year to improve, but you can't prove it after they gave away Alex to the Yanks over the offseason.)

If you look at the M's, you'll have a hard time convincing me the team is "better" this year than last. In fact,, I bet if you could ask Bavasi he'd take last years 93 wins in a heartbeat and take his chances.

The problem is that with very few "patsies" this year, teams are going to have a hard time racking up easy wins. Even the Yankees will have a hard time reaching 100 wins, simply because they have to play much more competitive teams this year. The order in the AL East may not change this year, but the level of play is FAR higher.

That is one reason the M's won't repeat 93 wins, and why the Yanks will struggle to reach 100, even with a $180 million payroll.

Through the first 6 games of the season, I notice a lot of M's fans are focusing on the defense. Given the M's were the last team in the majors to win a game, and by virtue of a 1-5 start are looking up at teams like the Rangers, Brewers, Reds and Tigers, clearly something is wrong.

But I think fans are making a mistake if they believe watching Cameron in a Mets uniform is the root of the problem. Let's look at what we know-

• M's fans are spoiled after watching Griffey and Cameron play center the last decade
  
• M's pitchers have had a Gold glove center fielder behind them for as long as baseball mattered in Seattle
  
• The M's had the fewest errors of any team in history last year, and missed the playoffs
  
• Even with a Gold glove in center, the M's were as likely to miss the playoffs as make it since '95
  
• Randy Winn played center in the majors for 5 years, and is not playing out of position
  

Rather than focus on the missing defense, the real problem, IMHO, is the way the team was put together in the offseason.
First, look at Randy Winn as a ballplayer. He is, by most accounts, an average outfielder. He doesn't hit for power, average defender, decent speed and makes $5 million per year. As a total package, Winn is decent but doesn't really stand out in any particular area.
Second, look at Cameron. Best center fielder in the AL, good power, good road numbers, fan favorite; bad strikeouts, bad Safeco numbers.
By replacing Cameron with Winn, we all knew what we were getting- less defense, less power; higher Safeco average, additional $2 million.
The problem was who we replaced Winn with in left field- Ibanez. Winn and Ibanez are remarkably similar as ballplayers, and it is a stretch to call Ibanez a significant upgrade over Winn (unless like Bavasi you believe Ibanez will hit .380 in Safeco).

So defense is worse in '04, we knew that going in. But it has very little to do with the 1-5 start. Put Andruw Jones or Mike Cameron in center, and this team is still 1-5. What are bigger problems?
* Jamie Moyer's first two starts have been awful- pitches high in the strike zone, can't spot his change-up
* Joel's velocity is down, and has struggled throughout spring with this location
* Bullpen, a previous strenght, has been terrible (primarily due to injury)
* The AL in general is significantly better this year, while the M's at best maintained, and likely are worse than last year
* Started the season against Anaheim and Oakland, two playoff caliber teams

Realistically, the M's should be 3-3 or 2-4 at this point, and defense, while a concern, is far down the list of things for fans to get worked up over. Edgar's health, lack of power, and inability to develop position players or get help during the season, are just a few I'd place over Winn's ability to play center.

Defense, in general, is the least of my concerns with the M's.

It's good to see the M's get their first win of the year, courtesy of our good friend Arthur Rhodes. If not for Billy signing Rhodes, the M's might still be winless!

I have to say I was shocked when I heard during the offseason the A's gave Rhodes a 3 year contract at over $9 million to be their closer. This is the same Rhodes who failed miserably when thrust into the closers role for Seattle last year. The same reliever who pitched terribly in the second half of '03 and was responsible for some huge momentum killers last hear- I seem to remember a grand slam last year that really deflated the M's. And of course how could any M's fan look back on Rhodes career with Seattle and not clearly recall two things: 1) Omar and the earring incident 2) Rhodes facing David Justice in the post season.

But thankfully Billy chose to focus on the positives, and signed Rhodes anyway. I will be shocked if Rhodes is still the closer by the end of the year, and blown away if Rhodes is closing meaningful games at the end of his contract . I suppose Billy will justify the contract by saying he couldn't afford to keep a top-shelf closer and sign Chavez. I understand when you are a small market club you have to make sacrifices somewhere, and thankfully one of those sacrifices gave up a two run lead yesterday in the 9th!

Well Freddy pitched well, but the M's lose 5-1 after Shiggy allows 5 runs in the 9th.

The M's complete lack of power was on display again, and already people are questioning Melvin- should Freddy have come out so early (94 pitches), why didn't Hasegawa start the 9th etc...

I thought the M's should have gone after Dusty last year, and fans really have to wonder if the M's would have made the playoffs last year with him instead of Melvin. (I'll bet Baker could find a place to play Bradley, dontcha think?)

It's still early in the season, but the fears us fans had early in the year were on full display-

• have I mentioned the no power?
  
• defense is worse than last year (although the M's are better than what we've seen so far)
  
• Melvin will make calls that lead to second guessing all year
  
• when Ichiro doesn't hit, the offense stalls; he's hitting .154 after today's game
  

The Mariners are better than what we've seen, but having to play the Angels, A's and Rangers is not going to be easy. Franklin goes against Redman tomorrow down in Oakland- I look for the M's to be embarrassed and bounce back.

Joel's struggles in spring training look to have carried over to the regular season, as the M's lose 10-7 to Anaheim. After being down 8-0 early in the game, it was nice to see the bats come alive and make a game of it.

It was not good to see Jarvis back in the game, where he gave up yet another run. I cannot see why we are carrying 12 pitchers and have to watch Jarvis give up runs and kill any momentum we were building.

The defense is not clicking right now, and that's not helping any either.

The theory that Safeco is not a hitters park and balls don't carry early in the season isn't working. Either Anaheim is really playing over their heads or that theory is incorrect. They aren't just hitting home runs- they are hitting doubles against the wall, hard fly balls etc. Let's hope Freddy doesn't run into his usual problem of having a big inning by giving up the long ball...

I notice on the M's official site that over half who voted on predicted victories (52% as of today) think they will win over 95 games this year, and only 10% agree with me that 86-88 is more likely.

I hope they are right :)

Wow, opening night really showcased the Mariners upcoming season. Things we already knew include:
* If Ichiro doesn't get on base, the Mariners "offense" stalls. No power means the M's rely on stringing together multiple hits. It can literally take 3-4 hits in an inning to drive in a run- if Ichiro or Winn's speed isn't on base, I can't see this team scoring many runs.
* Kevin Jarvis does not belong on this team, and is an embarrassment to the front office. If Jarvis doesn't give up three runs, the M's might have felt they were still in the game.
* This team needs solid starting pitching- we cannot outslug teams, and if the starting pitching has a bad night, we are in trouble. This team will contend only if all five starting pitchers keep them in games.
* Ichiro has not learned plate discipline. I'm sure everyone saw the count 3-2, and Ichiro swing at a ball so low it had grass stains during his second time at the plate.
* The fans are restless. People who are surprised to hear fans booing our new shortstop need to get out more. Fans have invested a lot of time and money in the past few years, and they expect more from the front office. Those boos were directed right at Lincoln, Bavasi and crew- I have no doubt. If Jose Cruz Jr. was our new left fielder and dropped a ball, he would be given some slack. Not so 32-year old castoffs on one-year contracts who remind no one of Tejada or Matsui. Don't take it personally Rich, but the front office had a terrible off season and you are in the crosshairs.

Let's hope Joel can right the ship tonight- it's a long season, go M's!