Random Fandom

Dear Josh Byrnes,

On behalf of the Arizona Diamondbacks community of blogs -- a small, huddling mass of people crowded around the back door bumming a cigarette -- welcome to Phoenix. You have been selected to replace the only General Manager the Diamondbacks have ever known. To be honest, this isn't really like replacing Pope John Paul II or FDR, but you probably knew that.

If this were a movie, my role here would be played by Christopher Plummer or Donald Sutherland, a tossed-off glorified cameo of indiscriminate quality (could be good, could be crap). Or perhaps more like the Will Ferrell character in Wedding Crashers, retiring at the top of his game, which was sort of a bad one, when you stop to think about it. And was there a better 20 minutes of moviegoing this year than the start of that movie? Shame the rest of the movie sort of petered out from there, isn't it?

But I'm getting off track here. This isn't a movie, this is a tired trope of journalists and bloggers -- the open letter to the New Guy In Town -- and I'd better get going.

First things first.

The best Mexican food in Phoenix is at Carolina's Mexican Food, conveniently just a couple miles southeast of the ballpark. I will not brook any disagreement on this. (I personally can't avoid the Oaxaca Special, but your tastes may vary.)

Oh, this is supposed to be baseball-related?

I wouldn't presume to tell you how to do your job -- shocking, I know, for someone who writes his thoughts for free on the Internet -- but I'll make the following requests:

1. Don't trade Gonzo -- don't even try. I've said many times before that Luis Gonzalez is my favorite Diamondback. That's not why I'm asking you not to trade him. I'm asking you not to trade him because whatever you get in return won't be worth the aggravation and fan disgust. Gonzo is the tangible link to the 2001 World Championship team, very visible in the community, and generally considered to be a nice guy. His declining skills won't generate much interest from other teams, but trying to generate that interest will just irk a fan base that does not need another reason to tune out. Plan a bunch of retirement-related functions and soirees that make it clear to the fans (and to Gonzo) that the team has no intent on having him around after 2006.

2. We need pitching. You, uh, know that already. I just wanted to convey to you how desperately we need pitching. Keith Foulke in 2005? Would've remained on the Diamondbacks staff all year. We'd've been overjoyed to have him here.

3. We're not idiots. OK, you're probably a bit sensitive to the use of the word "idiots," but I'm talking about the fans. There's lots of talk about Phoenix fans are fickle. But even after a 51-win season last year and an uninspiring 77-win campaign this year, Arizona still ranked 20th in baseball in average attendance. (That would be a difference of less than 300,000 fans below the World Champion White Sox.) Over time, you can build an even greater bond with the team. It will take time, but it can be done. (Now, the press, who automatically tagged you stat-boy nerd, as if being scouting director for the Indians was just some sort of internship, is another matter.)

So, good luck finding a house and remember, any time you want more free advice, I'm happy to provide it.

As I noted a couple days ago, given Jeff Moorad's apparent willingness to run the Diamondbacks, I'm not sure the selection of a GM is quite so important. (Important, but not so important. See -- no "so" in that first part. Critical analysis, eh?)

But Geoff over at Ducksnorts thinks the writing's on the wall, and that Kevin Towers will be on his way shortly. Geoff is not distressed, but I don't think he's happy about the prospect from a Padres perspective.

If true, should we be happy about it?

(Semi-)retirement means you get to take the long view regarding things that the daily posting grind is less forgiving of.

The flurry of Royce Clayton-ish news last week is an example.

First, Moorad says he's gonna make Royce Clayton a contract offer. Horrors! Then we find out it's one year for $1.5 million. Frankly, I could live with that. It's a million that could probably be spent elsewhere (to get a front-line pitcher, for example), but maybe Brandon Webb's resurgence this year really was tied to an irrational confidence in Clayton's abilities. And then we find out that Clayton rejected the offer. Even better. I think.

And there you go, a week's worth of blog entries in about a paragraph.

Or I could've spent all week trying to figure out how to write a satirical entry combining both Doug Eddings and the Vikings cruise on Lake Minnetonka. OK, I actually did spend all week trying to figure that one out, but rather than posting something weak I just let it go.

GM search? Does it really matter? Really? 'Cause it seems like Moorad's running the show.

And last night's homerun? Wow. At this point, I think America will cheer for whichever team wins that series in the World Series. The White Sox, even with their own troubled history, swept through the playoffs so blandly efficiently (and with every close call going their way) that America didn't get to cheer for them. Whichever National League team wins will have had to come through some serious setbacks.

October is a glorious time in Arizona, with the weather temperate and activities galore. I'm grooving right now to the New P***ographers' new album, Twin Cinema. (The drums on "Streets of Fire" near the end of that CD are just awesome.)

Good things abound. And the great thing about sports is that it helps put things into perspective and realize that good things abound.

I hope that Astros fans will be able to see that at some point, though today probably isn't the day to point it out to them.

Every few months I update my links and then feel compelled to post about it.

Why? I don't know.

In any case...

Adds:
CardNilly -- It's one thing to ask for a link exchange (which CardNilly's proprietor has not done) -- it's another to link to a site on a regular basis. That really won't get you anywhere with me, but having read his posts, and found them enjoyable and insightful, I figured his (St. Louis) Cardinals blog was a timely addition.
DeadSpin -- Sports roundup and gossip. Plus, they linked to me, too, without even asking.
Jack's Sports Humor -- Yeah, there are a number of SportsOnion-type sites. But none of those are run by a college friend. Who's the funniest guy I know.

Drops:
West Coast Bias -- I'd been meaning to drop the site for a while now, and when I checked the other day, the site had just vanished. Best of luck to you, Ryan, in Colorado or wherever you are.
TwinsGeek -- A day or so after I "retired" from the blogging world (so to speak), John Bonnes did so with far more permanence, more class, and more humor than I. John's blog was the original inspiration for this blog, so it is with sadness I'm removing him from my links.

Boy, you tell people that you don't feel like writing much anymore, and what happens?
Somebody -- somebody with actual readers -- thinks you're the third-best Diamondbacks blog.

So do I respond to this bit of external validation with a newfound devotion to my craft and a ironclad promise to never again refer to the music of the band Semisonic?

Er, no.

The great thing about deciding to scale back my writing is that I can lay in wait until something so inspiring or preposterous catches my eye that I can't help but share my foolish thoughts with the rest of the world.

And then take my sweet time before actually putting those thoughts on electrons.

So, Thursday's Arizona Republic included an article noting that pitching coach Mark Davis and first-base coach Brett Butler didn't have their contracts renewed. The article contained the following paragraph:

Butler said Melvin called him Wednesday morning and told him, " 'I hate to do this, but the organization is going in a different direction,' but that everything I did was fine."

I responded to this incredible paragraph by doing ABSOLUTELY NOTHING. I tell ya, folks, it felt great.

But eventually I got over that.

Jim already covered this in some detail last week, and I agree -- I can't think of a managing position with less authority than first-base coach. Holding batting gloves and saying "good hit" or "good walk" doesn't exactly seem like it's a position with major leverage. Saying that the "organization is going in a different direction" to a first-base coach is akin to the mailroom boss at Intel telling the weekend mail clerk upon his removal that the "organization is going in a different direction." Sure, in some (very) small way, the success of Intel requires a functioning mailroom, but it stretches credibility to assume that there are different mailroom approaches. (Or, rather, more than one correct one -- "let's sort the mail by the postage amount" seems a foolhardy approach.)

Now this is not to diminish the possibility that a first-base coach might actually have some value, both before and during the games. Working with young outfielders such as Terrero and Tracy, Butler could've had some impact there. Arizona's caught-stealing percentage dropped by 10% from 2004, from way above NL-average to just below, so in theory that could be counted in Butler's favor. The Diamondbacks had 15 more sacrifice hits (not flies) this year, but who knows how many opportunities they had, and whether Butler actually improved the team's bunting.

Which brings up my larger point, which is that we on the outside have no good idea as to what makes a good -- or bad -- member of a managerial staff. I would guess that Mark Davis worked with pitchers to improve their skills, fix problems, and gave advice to Melvin as to when a pitcher should be pulled and which pitcher should replace him. But is that all he does? And even if that's the correct list, how in the world can we evaluate his success or lack of success? (And, if pitching coaches are important, go ahead and name one whose name isn't Leo Mazzone or Mel Stottlemyre.) Likewise, first-base coaches must have some criteria upon which they could be judged, but we don't have the relevant data available to us.

I suspect that the "firings" are more about chemistry with Bob Melvin than anything else. Which is not the best basis to make a hiring decision. But it can't be the worst, either.

Last year I unveiled a feature so popular that it literally made the Internet crash.

OK, nobody really paid any attention to it, but then again, it had nothing to do with the Metrozoids, Jennie Finch, or Mark Grace cursing, so why should they?

Being firmly in Billy Beane's camp regarding the general crapshoot nature of the playoffs, in lieu of making my own playoff predictions, I had my 3-year-old daughter predict the playoffs. Seeing as she picked Boston the entire way, maybe she has a special gift.

So at some point Wednesday night (prior to the end of the Sox-Sox Game 2), I asked my daughter who she thought would win each of the first-round series.

I'm sorry these are late, but if you're actually gambling on baseball playoffs and using the ramblings of a 4-year-old girl as a crucial decision-maker, you have far bigger problems than my tardiness:

St. Louis - San Diego: St. Louis (and considering she's actually been to San Diego, I considered that as mortal a lock as existed)
Atlanta - Houston: Houston
Chicago - Boston: Chicago (though she first said Boston, then changed her mind. Clearly the closest series to her way of thinking.)
Los Angeles - New York: New York

So there ya go.

Closing time
Time for you to go back to the places you will be from.
Closing time
This room won't be open 'til your brothers or you sisters come.
So gather up your jackets, and move it to the exits
I hope you have found a friend.
Closing time
Every new beginning comes from some other beginning's end.

-- "Closing Time," Semisonic

Here we are at the end of another season. For fans in other cities, the season goes on, hopes and dreams intensified. For the rest of us, we watch with varying degrees of detachment.

The Arizona Diamondbacks shouldn't be terribly disappointed in their season. A record of 77-85, an improvement of 26 games from last year, and second place in the division is nothing to be disappointed by, even if the division challenged writers to come up with new words to describe the division's awfulness. (My entry: "crap-arrific!")

Losing the final game of the season 3-1 to the Giants Sunday only put a small damper on what had unexpectedly become a decent end to the season, capped by a season-high seven-game winning streak. The Pythagorean record, disfigured by a bullpen that liked to collapse in tandem, is none too good, but once you take a look at the second or third-order Pythagenport records, well, they still weren't good, but they weren't that bad, either.

You would expect that a team which improved by 26 games would have a new influx of bloggers ready to micro-analyze each and every move that was and wasn't, but that wasn't the case with the Diamondbacks. Last spring, when I started this blog, there were several prolific Diamondbacks bloggers, enough to inspire me to compare them to the Scooby gang.

This year? Whew. We did gain a new blogger in Devin, who helped keep the MVN D-Back blog, Out in the Desert, alive, if sporadically. William continued his excellent and exhaustive summaries of the Diamondback minor league system at Baby Backs: The Next Generation. And whether it's incredible devotion or the fact that he signed over his soul to Blez and won't get it back unless he posts for every game, Jim's AZ Snake Pit was and is the single essential Diamondbacks blog.

Where does that leave me then? While I never started this blog for readership, the fact that my readership has gradually declined over the summer is best seen as an indicator that I'm just not having much fun writing the blog this way anymore. I feel like I'd fail some blogging self-examination ("Moody? Check. Prone to ranting? Check. Disappears for days at a time? Check.") And I haven't written anything that I'm anywhere near as proud of this season as I did last season. I still think my Randy Johnson/Rush piece amidst last summer's trade rumors, tossed off fairly quickly, easily trumps anything I've done since Opening Day 2005.

I started the blog because I like baseball and I like writing. I still like baseball and I still like writing, but over the past year my work life and my home life have become so busy (in good ways) that I can no longer proceed in the same half-assed manner I've been blogging. I'm jealous of people like Jim, Rob, Jon, or Ryan, who -- like me -- appear to have both gainful employment and a family life and yet -- unlike me -- are able to produce enjoyable and insightful text on a regular basis.

This is not the last post ever on this blog. Heck, this may not even be the last post this week on this blog. (Find out by using your friendly RSS aggregator such as Bloglines.) But by writing this post, I am giving myself permission to stop writing, to feel like I have to write something, even if it's worthless drivel. And maybe, in time, I'll figure out how to get back to posting well-written pieces about Arizona Diamondbacks baseball and other cultural diversions.

Until then, thank you for reading.

Sure, plenty of other teams have exciting victories over teams out of playoff contention on Thursday, but while people care about Chicago's or Boston's or New York's victory, nobody cares about Arizona's.

A sweep of the Dodgers. In LA. Again.

Yeah, well, that and $8.50 will get you in to see Serenity. (No, I'm not one of the long-time fans. But it's intriguing enough in a slow movie year that I might actually go see the movie.)

But now that the Diamondbacks have reached the 75-win level I predicted many months ago, albeit due to a large amount of luck and placement in an anemic NL West, it's time to prove me wrong.

Go for 78 wins, Diamondbacks. Don't play any of your regulars -- they're playing in San Francisco, where I can't imagine anybody will be disappointed that they might miss their chance to see the return of Royce Clayton. But prove me wrong. Sweep the Giants. Finish a strong second in the division -- you could still end up just 2 games out of first, 9 games ahead of the Giants and 10 games ahead of the Dodgers.

And look to 2006.

OK. So the Padres came back last night. For a while there, amidst the Webb-Weaver duel in LA, the tantalizing possibility of climbing to within 4 games of the Padres floated out there like a chocolate dog in the Land of Chocolate.

Alas, it was not to be. The Padres won. Even though Brandon Webb won a 2-0 game over the Dodgers, thanks to Chad Tracy's 25th home run of the year (Goal # 5 accomplished; Goal # 6 accomplished with just 2-3 more hits in his last 20 or so ABs), just one more Diamondbacks loss or Padres victory would finally put an end to the Diamondbacks playoff "hopes." (And I use that term very loosely.)

The most frustrating thing for me about this past week or so is that the Diamondbacks really needed to do this, oh, in June. Winning 7 of 9? That might've triggered some fan interest. As it was, apathy ruled.

Oh, and in the category of "Where The Heck Is That Coming From?," this from Will Carroll (registration required):

"Brandon Lyon appears headed for Tommy John surgery, something he probably wishes he'd had two years ago…"

I have never heard this before. Anyone care to shed some light on this?

Yeah, I know I said not to look at the standings. But it's hard when the stupid Padres won't get their stupid act straight and win a stupid series against the Diamondbacks, who everybody thinks are just about the worst team in baseball.

Except that we're not. (Yeah, I'm lookin' at you, Los Angeles Dodgers of Los Angeles. And, yes, I figured that the expiration date on those "City Name Nickname of City Name" jokes was just about here, and therefore I wanted get one last shot in, no matter how pointless and, I'm sure, unoriginal.)

I actually still read the Sports section first thing each morning, even if I knew who won.

I have a life, people! (Or, rather, I did last year when the Diamondbacks were eliminated in, oh, May.) I've been looking at my upcoming schedule -- my social calendar, as it were -- and I am just full booked up here. Have been since Labor Day -- heck, since long before Labor Day.

Do I have time to read the Sports section obsessively? No. Do I look like someone who wants to be trapped in front of the television when the weather is cooling off and my daughter has soccer practice? No. Do I seem like the person who would pad this rant out to a third question to reinforce the "rule of three"? Er...

And so while I'm happy that we successfully attained my goal numbers 1, 2, and 4 with our series victory over the Padres (with goal numbers 3 and 5 through 9 still possibilities), the fact that #10 -- making the playoffs -- is still possible is both giddy and annoying.

I love extra-inning victories. For our team. But it's almost October, and it's time for us Arizonans to escape our hermetically sealed air-conditioned environments and reacquaint ourselves with the outside world.

Still, I just have one thing to say for tonight, and that is, Go Giants!

Old habits die hard.

If Javier Vazquez wins the award for Most Frustrating Diamondback in 2005, Alex Cintron definitely placed 2nd in the balloting. Playing behind the least-preferred starting D-Back position player, Royce Clayton, Cintron responded to this challenge and opportunity by... doing not much.

VORP? Clayton: 10.2; Cintron: 8.7 (though on a per-PA basis, Cintron is higher)
Win Shares? Clayton: 10, Cintron: 5
Win Shares Above Baseline? Clayton: 0, Cintron: -1

I'm not this huge Royce Clayton fan, but there's very little reason for Diamondbacks management not to seriously consider an extension for Clayton, given the weak free-agent class and the relative inflexibility the Diamondbacks will have financially (because, look, Gonzo, Ortiz, and Vazquez aren't going anywhere). If you are a risk-averse management, why wouldn't you invest the extra million per year for Clayton, who probably will be much more willing to shepherd Stephen Drew into the starting slot for 2007?

This meditation is prompted by Alex Cintron's 12th-inning 3-run moon shot Thursday night to give the Diamondbacks a 7-4 win over the Dodgers. If Cintron had done that more often this year, we might not be looking at Clayton next year.

Now, if you're looking for the epitome of clutch this year, look no further than yet another "C" player (up to this year, in more ways than one), Tony Clark (who, er, hit his 30th homerun last night). In an intriguing BP article yesterday (subscription required), James Click estimates that, based on Win Expectancy (a context-sensitive metric evaluating performance), Tony Clark has added 5 wins to the D-Backs, 4th best in the entire league. And, even more relevant to the concept of clutch, the difference between his overall performance (as measured by VORP) and his Win Expectancy is 3rd-best in the league.

What makes this all slightly bittersweet is the knowledge that "clutch-ness" doesn't continue from year to year. Which means that in 2006, we'll probably be seeing a lot more outs from Clark, and fewer clutch homeruns.

Oh, and did I mention the DIAMONDBACKS SWEPT THE DODGERS?!

*******************

So here are my team goals for the last 9 games of the season, ranked in probability order, greatest to least:

1. The renaming of Bank One Ballpark doesn't lead to something incredibly stupid.
2. No champagne in the visitor's lockerroom -- all it will take is one win by the Giants or the Diamondbacks this weekend, and the Padres won't clinch the NL West here in Arizona.
3. The Diamondbacks reach 75 wins -- 'cause it's what I predicted at the start of the season.
4. The Diamondbacks don't get eliminated by the Padres this weekend -- would require a Diamondbacks series win. Definitely possible.
5. - 9. Assorted random individual goals -- Chad Tracy hits .300, gets his 25th homerun; Counsell hits his 10th HR, Glaus gets 40 HRs and 100 RBIs.
10. The Diamondbacks go to the playoffs. (Yeah, it ain't gonna happen, but still, if you said the Diamondbacks would -- even technically -- be in the playoff hunt with less than 10 games to go at the beginning of the season, you'd've taken it.)

Why not?

I mean, San Diego lost 20-1 to the Rockies Tuesday night. Sure, the Diamondbacks have lost 3 games by 10 runs. And 1 by 12. Oh, and 1 by 13. Oh, and yeah, who could forget the 3 games lost by 14 runs. And -- my personal favorite -- 1 loss by 15 runs.

But, hey, at least not 19 runs.

And for all the naysayers regarding Diamondbacks attendance this year, the Diamondbacks managed to draw nearly 24,000 fans to a game between two-sub .500 teams who can barely sniff the playoffs. The White Sox -- located in a much larger metropolitan area and featuring a game between the probably-playoff-bound White Sox and the hottest team in the league -- could draw just 26,000. Glad to see Chicago's got your back, Sox.

OK, now that I have that out of my system...

It's not like it was an overwhelmingly D-Backian crowd at last night's 4-1 victory over the Dodgers. Every time the camera panned to the crowd for, say, a foul ball, the Dodger fans were plentiful and colorful.

Shame they had to go home disappointed, thanks to Javier Vazquez, who definitely wins the award for Most Frustrating Diamondback. Because for every outing like Tuesday night's, where he appears to be worth most of his eight-figure salary, he has another outing in which the league minimum would appear to be a reasonable salary. It makes the Diamondbacks' offseason more difficult (although "more difficult" also means "more interesting," from a blogger's perspective).

Not that the Diamondbacks appear to be looking yet at the offseason, as Alex Cintron was the only non-typical-starter to start last night's game. I gotta tell, while 100 AB isn't the best base for player evaluation, it's a lot better than 20 AB. Free Andy Green!

I come not to bury Gonzo, but to praise him.

Congratulations to Luis Gonzalez for receiving the 2005 Branch Rickey Award for his humanitarian efforts this year and over the years.

The award was timely, because it comes on the heels of what is new for Gonzo -- trade talk.

On the afternoon of July 3, Gonzalez was named to the All-Star Game. At the time, Gonzo was hitting .302, with an OPS of .874. While I could've made strong arguments for Brandon Webb, Tony Clark, or Craig Counsell to make the All-Star Team based on their first-half performance, there was nothing wrong with Gonzalez' selection. But since that afternoon? Hitting .224 with an OPS of .705. Not a collapse of Ortiz-ian proportions, but certainly not worth $10 million or so per year.

So now people are beginning to openly discuss the possibility of Gonzalez's trade. Jim, who has weathered these arid days of September much better than I have blogging-wise, gives his typically cogent summary of the situation (hey, how's that for a pull quote! -- "typically cogent"), all but pleading for a trade.

And the problem is that it's not going to happen. This isn't Randy Johnson, an expensive Hall-of-Famer, who really wanted to leave. It's not even Matt Williams, a fringe Hall-of-Fame candidate who was uncermoniously trashed for not wanting to uproot his family to Colorado.

This is Luis Gonzalez, Face Of The Franchise. Gonzo doesn't want to leave. The organization might want to move him, but who, realistically, needs Gonzo and would be willing to pay part of his salary, say, $3 or $4 million? St. Louis, maybe? Anaheim? I think those are the only two teams willing to pay that much for a 3rd or 4th outfielder that Gonzo might be willing to go to (and given the whole Gonzo-La Russa history, the Cardinals probably aren't set there).

And here's where the analysis leaves the ballfields and board rooms and enters unquantifiable territory like the human heart. Meaning, if the Diamondbacks enter a protacted and public trade dance, and ultimately fail, how does that affect public perception of the team? It's not like these Diamondbacks have captured the Valley's heart, and with a resurgent Suns team, a fun Coyotes team, and the Cardinals getting a stadium, getting rid of the one player with a well of goodwill with the public might not even be a wise move in the board room.

Look, I've made it clear that Gonzo is my favorite player, and I'd much rather see him play one final year here in 2006. I recognize, however, that Gonzo's skills do appear to be declining, and that 2006 should be a year of 300-400 PAs for him, with a lot of player-mentoring and newspaper puff pieces on his schedule.

But setting aside my biases, I think the potential risks -- on and off-the-field -- significantly outweigh the benefits.

So, uh, I haven't posted much lately. You might be wondering, has he been benched like Royce Clayton should be for the rest of the season (if only to let other talent show their stuff)? No, like Russ Ortiz' 2005 season, there's just no stopping me. Unfortunately.

It's a confluence of things, really. Busy times at work. Busy times at home. Lackluster team on the field.

Or maybe it's just all the Buddhist texts I've been reading recently. Attachment is not highly prized by Buddhists. Open-mindedness and mindfulness is. It's probably hard to be a fan of a particular sports team if one is Buddhist. I'm not Buddhist, but the readings have put me into a mindset that let me appreciate these last few games for what they are -- games with little to no significance.

Do I wish the Diamondbacks had won Tuesday night, instead of getting flummoxed by ex-Diamondback Chris Capuano and the Brewers, 3-1? Sure. But I'm breathing out that stress. I tell you, my mantra has been, "2005 is over. 2006 is here."

Stop looking at the standings, I tell myself. Over and over and over. 17 games to go, basically 90% of the season finished.

It makes for a less-than-compelling blog. But also for a better-adjusted blogger.

Not focusing very well on the current moment right now -- I'm spending my time counting down the days to season's end.

That was made easier thanks to the five minutes of Thursday's 12-inning 8-7 Diamondbacks loss to the Pirates that I actually saw. Those five minutes included
a) Wilson's incredibly long at-bat against Worrell, eventually leading to a Troy Glaus error, and
b) Bay's homerun.

That's the kind of five minutes that you're willing to look past in April and May, those carefree months when hope springs eternal and blog postings here are consistent. But in September, with a team whose elimination from the playoffs is all but mathematical, that's the kind of five minutes that causes you to turn off the TV in what passes for disgust in these perspective-filled days and move on to something new.

Which is really too bad, because I should be talking about Dustin Nippert's first big league game, one in which he pitched decently, giving up 3 runs and 5 hits in 5 innings. Even if Nippert had pitched horribly, we should still celebrate his appearance. Playing in the Show, man. It's the kind of work-related ritual most of us don't get to experience. But his decent performance gives us Diamondbacks just a little more hope for the future.

There's still room to get on the bandwagon for 2006-2008. Get on board now for the most comfortable of seats.

(Until then, we get to enjoy a Diamondbacks-Rockies series which begins with a game in which we're starting a former Rockies pitcher and they're starting a former Diamondbacks pitcher. One takes amusement where one can at this point.)

In my favorite scene from the excellent 1993 movie version of The Fugitive, Harrison Ford's Richard Kimble, trapped at the edge of a sewer drain, pleads with Tommy Lee Jones' Marshal Sam Gerard -- "I didn't kill my wife!," Kimble says. "I don't care," says Gerard, with just a hint of exasperation.

I love Jones' delivery in that line (as did Oscar voters, since he won the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor that year). Gerard has one task -- bringing in Richard Kimble -- and the little details, such as innocence, are unimportant. His eyes are on the ball.

And, thankfully, the Diamondbacks' eyes appear to actually be on the ball. Heading into Tuesday's game against the Pirates, the Diamondbacks were 8 games out with 24 games to play. Even with some very questionable baserunning by Luis Terrero and Chad Tracy (talk about not keeping eyes on the ball), the Diamondbacks eked out a 12-inning 4-2 victory over the Pirates.

But that's not why I'm happy -- no, I'm happy because Terrero, Alex Cintron, and Conor Jackson all started yesterday's game. We can concoct all sorts of fantasy discussions of how the Diamondbacks could climb back into the NL West race (and, believe me, I've been there), but hopefully this is a sign that the Diamondbacks are willing to put the remote chances of making the playoffs this year on ice with a view to figuring out how (or if) they can make it there next year.

There is no reason why there shouldn't be three non-veterans in the non-battery portion of each and every lineup for the last 23 games of the season. Tony Clark has been, without a doubt, the team's MVP this year -- but Conor Jackson should be getting a ton of at-bats against both lefites and righties. Cintron and Terrero need starts to figure out if they should be around next year. Can Andy Green be a suitable 25th-man? A Clark-Counsell-Clayton-Glaus infield in any of these final 23 games would make virtually no sense to me.

The Diamondbacks thankfully seem to be willing to try some youth on the pitching end as well, starting Dustin Nippert tomorrow night.

By using the call-ups, the Diamondbacks will reap the added benefits of resting the rest of their lineup, which, with the exception of Tracy and Snyder, cannot be associated with the phrase "spring chicken." 2006 could be a special season (read: the Diamondbacks might actually make the playoffs), but that's much more likely if the Diamondbacks realize 2005 won't be.

And besides, the Diamondbacks are still 15 games below .500 -- why not try something new?

Back.

I'd been gone for a week, far enough way to have the Diamondbacks' scores in the paper reduced to a one-sentence summary and box scores in their tiny font sizes. While the Diamondbacks agonized through a sweep by the Mets, I was in a much cooler place, drinking beer with friends and watching our kids run around together. We went to museums, to playgrounds; we caught up on jobs, mutual friends, and movie reviews. We ate lots of unhealthy food. We had fun.

In other words, I picked a great time to excuse myself from blogging about this team. (Thanks to Balls, Sticks, and Stuff, who kindly linked to me during the Phillies series -- sorry I provided your readers no analysis, and sorry we brought in the real Diamondbacks to face you guys as opposed to the fake ones we used against the Mets.)

And then on Monday, that same out-of-town newspaper starting using very large font sizes to talk about Hurricane Katrina. As the week has gone on, the stories get increasingly dark and worrisome. I found out that my mom, who had gone to New Orleans with her friend to take her friend's son back to Loyola University, was woken up by the son at 12:30 Saturday night/Sunday morning and told to just get the hell out of town NOW. (The son is still wandering around Louisiana, communication very difficult.) My mother-in-law hasn't heard yet from all her relatives around Biloxi and Gulfport. Her childhood home is almost certainly Not There Anymore. (And, unrelated to all this, I saw a young woman carrying a folded American flag through the airport Tuesday night.)

So I'm finding it hard to muster any enthusiasm for blogging about the Diamondbacks right now. Clearly there are reasons to be excited -- it's September 1, after all, and it's always fun to see the callups (I'm particularly happy that Andy Green will finally make it back up here.) But there are times when the darkness of the outside world exceeds the light that sports provides. For me, for now, that's where I'm at.

Did you know that "Live" is playing after the Diamondbacks-Phillies game on Saturday? You didn't? Then where in the world have you been living this past week? Under a FREAKIN' ROCK?

Really, people, I don't think the Diamondbacks could be hawking that concert anymore if John and George were coming back from the dead to join Paul and Ringo after a Mets game.

Speaking of which (hey... not a bad segue, if I do say so myself), at least last night's 4-1 Diamondbacks loss to the Mets didn't make me nauseous, a condition the Reds series threatened. Brandon Webb pitched well, but Tom Glavine -- he of a sub-2.00 ERA at BOB -- pitched great, and it was basically all over after the first inning.

Oh, yeah, there were those double-plays by Glaus and Gonzo in the 7th and 9th innings. Those didn't help, either.

***************

I haven't weighed in thus far on the "is the NL West worth winning" question that's been going round Diamondback-ville (and exactly which side of the tracks does that reside?). So here, in brief, is my view.

TRY TO WIN THE THING!

I understand the desire to see Conor Jackson get more playing time, but it's not like Tony Clark is having some so-so, Clayton-like season. Clark is our most consistent hitter this season, and has generated almost as much offense as Troy Glaus in half the at-bats.

I could understand if the Diamondbacks played in any other division and were 10 games out. But they're not. They're 4 games out with 36 games to play. Most of those games come against divisional opponents. The Diamondbacks can, without a doubt, win this division. Will they? I don't think so. But would it surprise me? Not really.

And all that fear that people will merely remember the NL West champion as the worst champion ever? Forgotten by next year, if not sooner -- the Atlanta Braves have hardly developed a reputation as playoff world-beaters.

I like Conor -- I think he'll have a good major league career. But his major league development can wait another 2 or 3 weeks if need be.

How much more of this must we endure? It's like the starting rotation has finally been infected with the inconsistency virus that has plagued the offense and bullpen since the start of the season. What was that movie -- 28 Days Later? You know, where a single drop of blood transmits a virus (named "Rage), turning the recipient into a snarling, murderous extra from a George Romero movie in, like, 30 seconds?

Brandon Webb and Claudio Vargas and Tony Clark must be holed up somewhere in Glendale, ready to fire away at, say, Brad Halsey.

A day after their 12-game road trip ends disastrously in Cincinnati (4-8, somehow still only 4 games behind the Padres), the Diamondbacks return home to face the Mets and the Phillies.

And it's all I can do to not ignore it all completely.

My virus is apathy -- and it's catching.

OK. She baked me a cake.

The Diamondbacks pounded the St. Louis Cardinals 9-2 Thursday night and once more moved to within 3 games of the San Diego Padres. The Diamondbacks had that rare trifecta of good starting pitching (Claudio Vargas, whose summer dominance is both wholly unexpected and totally appreciated), good relief pitching (3 innings with just one hit), and good offense (14 hits, including two homeruns from Gonzo). I'm ignoring those 5 double-play balls. Never happened.

So while I'm not ready to buy my playoff tickets yet (it was amusing to hear Jeff Munn talk about how Thursday night's game was the "last regular season game for the Diamondbacks here at Busch Stadium"), I guess the team has kept me interested at least through this weekend's series against the Reds, a series that the Diamondbacks have a much better shot of winning.

And, with just about a quarter of the season left to play, I thought it was worth taking a look at the remaining schedules for the Diamondbacks, Padres, and Dodgers. (Percentages are Pythagenport records as of this morning.)

Diamondbacks
3 @ Reds (.452)
4 vs. Mets (.545)
3 vs. Phillies (.516)
3 @ SD (.469)
3 vs. SF (.411)
3 @ Pittsburgh (.428)
3 @ Rockies (.383)
3 vs. Brewers (.488)
3 vs. Rockies (.383)
3 vs. LA (.425)
3 vs. SD (.469)
3 @ LA (.425)
3 @ SF (.411)

Non-Divisional weighted record: .490

Padres
3 @ Atlanta (.552)
3 vs. Houston (.528)
3 vs. Rockies (.383)
3 vs. D-Backs (.446)
4 @ Brewers (.488)
3 vs. Rockies (.383)
3 @ LA (.425)
3 @ SF (.411)
3 vs. Nationals (.469)
4 @ Rockies (.383)
3 @ D-Backs (.446)
4 vs. SF (.411)
3 vs. LA (.425)

Non-Divisional weighted record: .475 (includes extra Rockies series, extra Rockies/SF games)

Dodgers
4 @ Florida (.523)
3 vs. Rockies (.383)
3 vs. Houston (.528)
3 @ Cubs (.517)
3 @ Rockies (.383)
3 vs. SF (.411)
3 vs. SD (.469)
3 vs. Rockies (.383)
4 @ SF (.411)
3 @ D-Backs (.446)
4 vs. Pittsburgh (.428)
3 vs. D-Backs (.446)
3 @ SD (.469)

Non-Divisional weighted record: .472 (includes extra Rockies series, extra SF game)

For what it's worth, then, the Diamondbacks have a slightly harder row to hoe from here on out. But the difference over 5 series is worth less than a win, almost minimal. And considering that each team has home-and-home series with each of its divisional rivals, it's less than minimal. While this weekend's Reds series is obviously important, it's the Padres series 10 days from now that I'm focusing on.

Working out this morning, I heard the Gin Blossoms' "Hey Jealousy," which I am nominating for Best Song Ever From Arizona. (I'm not clear who exactly is running this award, but that's an unimportant detail.) Seriously -- an incredible hook, great guitar work, and wonderful lyrics about someone who feels like a loser and desperately wants or needs love. I loved the song the first time I heard it 12 years ago, and I've loved it ever since. (You want to nominate some other song? Let me know in the comments below. Stevie Nicks doesn't count because Fleetwood Mac did all their work in LA.)

The song and its lyrics about a relationship doomed to failure spoke to me this morning as I thought about the Diamondbacks in the wake of their second straight anemic game against the Cardinals, a 5-0 loss Wednesday night. I'm trying not to get caught in the over-analysis of small sample size. Yes, it's the fourth loss in a row for the Diamondbacks, but the Diamondbacks this year have shown a repeated tendency not to go on the kind of skid the Padres suffered through (let alone one of Royalsian length). This week is starting out just like last week -- two losses in a row (while the Padres split their first two games) -- so I'm hopeful that tonight's game will be like last week, yielding a win for our team heading into a series against a team without the best record in baseball. After all, Diamondbacks ace Claudio Vargas takes the mound tonight. (Yes, I said "Diamondbacks ace Claudio Vargas," a phrase which Google has no record of. But over the past 30 days, Vargas' ERA of 1.83 is more than twice as good than any other starter.)

How many times does it take for somebody to hurt you in little (or big) ways before you move on to someone or something else? Now, clearly we're Diamondbacks fans, and so the "someone" is really the 2006 Diamondbacks, not some other team. But like that one great golf shot out of ten (or twenty, in my case), the 2005 Diamondbacks do something well just often enough to keep you hooked.

So here it is -- are the Diamondbacks going to make one final effort to go straight, or is it time to write them off?

****************

Oh, a shout-out to CardNilly, a Cardinals blog (natch) kind enough to link here. An amusing writing style -- check it out to see how the other (better) half lives.

Complete lyrics to "House of Jealous Lovers," by The Rapture:

House of jealous lovers
House of jealous lovers
House of jealous lovers
House of jealous lovers

Shakedown

House of jealous lovers
One hand ties the other
House of jealous lovers
House of jealous lovers

Shakedown

House of jealous lovers
One hand ties the other
House of jealous lovers
House of jealous lovers

1,1
2,2
3,3
4,4
5,5
6,6
7,7
8,8

Written out like that, it's not exactly William Shakespeare. It's not even Trip Shakespeare. But pulsing through the headphones from my iPod shuffle during an early-morning workout, it is a great song. (And, truly, it is -- one of the best singles from the past 5 years, dance-punk at its best.)

Sometimes things are more than the sum of their parts. Tuesday's St. Louis Cardinals, for example. Scott Seabol, a 30-year-old journeyman whose major league experience prior to 2005 consisted of a 2001 cup of coffee with the Yankees, batting 6th? Mark Grudzielanek batting cleanup? And yet, these Cardinals rapped out 15 hits against the Diamondbacks in the D-Backs' 8-2 loss to the Cardinals Tuesday night.

Meanwhile, our own Diamondbacks managed just 5 hits against Jeff Suppan and generally looked bad. I'm not quite sure what it is -- the top 6 Cardinals have a VORP of just 31.8 greater than the top 6 Diamondbacks, the equivalent 3 wins not a significant component of the 19 more wins the Cardinals have. The Cardinals looked good in every way the Diamondbacks looked bad -- getting timely hitting instead of double plays, turning two instead of turning the game as one local radio wag called it into "Kelly Stinnett Souvenir Night." Things haven't clicked much for the Diamondbacks lately. And their pitching? Currently they have a total of 55 Win Shares, or barely 18 wins attributable to the pitching staff. Now, that's still better than 2004, when the pitching staff only had 57 Win Shares for the entire year. Given that there's still a quarter of the season left to play, another 18 or so Win Shares is not unreasonable. But still, I expected the pitching staff as a whole to do better...

One would hope that a relaxing vacation and time off would have recharged my literary abilities so that I could discuss the National League West.

No such luck.

I'm tapped out for metaphors. My simile well is dry.

The Week That Was

Record: 2-4 (2nd place, NL West, 3 games behind San Diego)
Runs Scored/Runs Against: 5.25-6.25
Transactions: Kelly Stinnett off the DL, Michael Gosling down to Tucson (8/9); Brandon Lyon and Russ Ortiz off the DL, Koyie Hill and Mike Koplove down to Tucson (8/13).

I've always liked Koplove, and I think he's being punished for being put in situations with baserunners but he's shown too much inconsistency this season for me to quibble too much with the selection (as opposed to Bruney, Groom, or Worrell). Glad to see Lyon back, of course; the jury is still out on Russ Ortiz and his performance Saturday night was, while not a disaster, not a stunning success either.

The offense showed signs of resurgence, while the pitching was, typically, inconsistent. And the basepath management (see Terrero's hidden-ball trick and Gonzo being thrown out at the plate twice in the same game) left much to be desired. (Let's put it this way, I'm not sure I could've identified the 3rd-base coach before this week, that's how silent -- in a good way -- Tosca's work has been thus far.)

And somehow the Diamondbacks are still just 3 games behind San Diego.

The Weeks That Will Be

6 on the road (3 each at St. Louis and Cincinnati)
7 at home (4 against the Mets, 3 against the Phillies)

It certainly doesn't get any easier here in the next couple weeks. St. Louis is, of course, the class of the National League once again while the Reds aren't quite as bad as their record might suggest. Still, with Halsey, Webb, and Vargas, the team's best rotation pitchers recently, a series win, while unlikely, is not wholly unreasonable.

Last week Jim suggested that my hope the team would go 6-6 on the road trip was overly optimistic, and I can't say that he'll probably be wrong. My hope that the team might remain 3 behind the Padres is every bit as likely though, so it's a compromise position. With the Padres playing the same schedule we just finished playing (3 each at the Marlins and Braves), it's certainly not inconceivable that the Diamondbacks would end up 3 games behind the Padres by next Monday morning.

3 behind. Wow.

It's not supposed to be like this, you know. This Diamondbacks squad is just supposed to roll over and give up. Go on a nice 9-game losing streak that finally ends any of these delusions of playing meaningful games in September.

They're not done yet, folks.

Oh, sure for seven innings today it sure looked that way. Wasting a great performance by Brandon Webb, unable to push their lumpy mashed potatoes across the plate, let alone runners.

And then -- BOOM! -- Chad Tracy with a homerun to tie the game and -- SUPERBOOM! -- Troy Glaus with a 2-run homerun. Valverde throws the high heat (97 MPH on at least one pitch) as the new "official" closer in the ninth, and the Diamondbacks escape with a 3-1 win over the Marlins.

With the Padres win, the Diamondbacks are still 4 games out of first, but they're heading into an Atlanta series without a pitcher that puts absolute fear into me (though Jorge Sosa's record and ERA are somewhat daunting). Of course, the Braves could probably say the same thing about our squad.

I'll try to follow the games, but it may be hard, to say nothing of blogging. Back on Monday.

In the meantime, have a good weekend and Go Diamondbacks!

You probably think this is a post about Luis Terrero, don't you? Picked off third in Wednesday's 10-5 Diamondbacks loss to the Marlins, the victim of the hidden ball trick played to perfection by Marlins third baseman Mike Lowell.

And you'd be wrong.

Look, clearly Terrero deserves criticism for being fooled by the play, which effectively ended the Diamondbacks' eighth inning, which otherwise would have continued with the D-Backs having runners on 1st and 3rd, trailing by just one run.

But what about Brad Halsey, giving up 8 hits and 6 runs in just 5 innings of work -- is he hitting "the wall"? What about the defense -- 4 errors? What about Tim Worrell, whose nickname -- "The Grandfather" -- inspires fear and trembling in exactly nobody, and certainly not the Marlins, who teed off for 3 hits and 3 walks in in just 2/3rds of an inning? Maybe they, uh, deserve more of the blame for a 10-5 loss, than a man who went 2 for 3 with a walk and got caught by the Roger Clemens of the hidden ball trick -- Mike Lowell was the last man who pulled it off, late last season.

If the Diamondbacks don't make the playoffs this year, I don't think that was the turning point, as was stated by The Republic.

This not paying attention to the matters at hand applies also to the denizens of this fabulous Internet, who have stopped by this fair Diamondbacks blog by the bushelfull, in search of any information they can track down about Mark Grace's profanity and expletive-laced discussion during Tuesday's broadcast. Nothing in the history of this blog can match the intensity of interest in finding out what Mark Grace said. Not "Last of the Metrozoids," not the Diamondback blogger's best friend, the once- and future-Diamondback Casey Daigle (or "Mr. Jennie Finch," as he was known) could match this. It's been my equivalent (on a very small scale, of course) of Ashlee Simpson on "Saturday Night Live," Janet Jackson at the Super Bowl, Paris Hilton at, well, anywhere.

You people.

It's like you've never heard anybody cuss before. Knowing Gracie like we do (in other words, barely at all), I think we can feel confident that there were words that included the letter "f." C'mon, this was a guy who said, hoisting the 2001 World Champsionship Trophy, "Party at Gracie's house! Everyone's invited!" You can't really be surprised that Grace would swear, would you? And it's not like you can't hear swear words other places on your TV dial.

Keep your eyes on the #@$@^! ball, people.

... and out of mind.

The advantage of watching the Diamondbacks lose 5-0 to the Florida Marlins in Miami Tuesday night is that it's real easy to not watch the Diamondbacks. 4 PM starts are easy to ignore, as are 3-hit performances by your favorite squad of ballplayers.

It's quite difficult to find positives from such a shellacking... oh, wait, the bullpen pitched 3 innings of scoreless ball. There you go. Of course, it's akin to a stellar performance by the junior varsity in a preseason game. It means something, but not much. The only other news from the game is that Conor Jackson didn't hit 2 homeruns in his start. But we didn't expect that to happen every start, now did we?

Javier Vazquez's less-than-stellar performance makes me dwell on his future with the team. Vazquez is scheduled to make, what, $12 or $13 million next year? Could the Diamondbacks put that money to better use in the free-agent pitching market in the offseason? After a merely adequate season such as this one, could the Diamondbacks get anyone of value in return for Vazquez's $25+ million 2-year contract? Would Vazquez be happy with any team that could offer the Diamondbacks someone valuable? And with Vazquez's merely adequate season, he's likely to not bother to declare himself a free agent, as he has the ability to do later this offseason. (Then again, with the slim free-agent pitching pickings, he might very well be able to get a similar contract for more years with a team of his choosing.) For many reasons, it would've been better for everyone concerned if he'd gone 13-7 rather than 9-11.

Many roster moves -- Stinnett off the DL, Gosling down to Tucson, the upcoming Ortiz activation and likely Hill return to Tucson. Plus, the Republic speculates that Brandon Lyon could be coming off the DL as early as this weekend. Add to those moves upcoming activations of Villarreal and Estes, and if I were in the Diamondbacks' bullpen, I wouldn't be making close friends anytime soon.

How many times this season have the Diamondbacks been faced with a series that would truly show what kind of team they were? That they really weren't very good, the doubters would say.

Plenty.

Let's see... there was late April... and I think early June... and the series against the Padres after the All-Star Break... and probably a couple others in there (I'm on vacation, so I'm not required to be thinking at full speed right now.)

And how did the Diamondbacks respond? Well, invariably they responded with indifference. Maybe we'll play well for a while, and we definitely won't completely tank (so there, doubters), the Diamondbacks would seem to say, but they'd never "carpe diem" either.

And so here we are, almost in the middle of August, and the Diamondbacks face yet another Myers-Briggs of a road trip in which we'll find out what kind of team they are -- really, we mean it this time.

And I have every reason to believe that the Diamondbacks, just as they've shown a disturbing tendency to play down to the level of their opponents this season (the Pirates, the Royals, the Reds, and, this past weekend, the Rockies), with a record not far under .500, have also shown the ability to play with, well, good teams. So I actually think they'll make it out of this road trip at 6-6 or 5-7.

San Diego had a good series against the Nationals, so it's hard to tell whether they're completely cured once more, or if that was just luck. But the Diamondbacks could leave for its next road trip to San Diego on August 29 no further out of first than they are now (3 games out) and it would surprise me no more than if they traveled there 8 games out.

Unlike last year, where we knew what we had with the Diamondbacks (and it wasn't good), this year we're tossed enough flashes of brilliance that we're left wanting, even though we all expected this team to win around 75 games. As managers of expectations, the Diamondbacks aren't very good this year.

Starting Lineup, Aug. 4, 2004 vs. Florida Marlins
McCracken, LF
Alomar, 2B
Bautista, RF
Hillenbrand, 1B
Tracy, 3B
Terrero, CF
Cintron, SS
Brito, C
Johnson, P

Starting Lineup, Aug. 4, 2005 vs. Houston Astros
Counsell, 2B
Clayton, SS
Gonzalez, LF
Clark, 1B
Glaus, 3B
Green, RF
Terrero, CF
Hill, C
Halsey, P

The end result in both games was the same -- an atypically easy victory for the Diamondbacks -- 11-6 against the Marlins and 7-3 last night against the Astros.

But look at the lineups. With the exception of Terrero in centerfield, not a single player is the same. They're all better. OK, Brad Halsey, as nice a surprise as he's been this year, is not as good as Randy Johnson was last year. But the position players? I'll take the 2005 lineup every time.

(Yes, that goes for shortstop. Cintron's VORP was 5.9 for the whole year, while Clayton's already at 6.3. Cintron was 8 Win Shares below baseline for the season as a whole; Clayton's right at baseline. I understand the argument for giving Cintron more playing time this year -- he's certainly playing better than last year -- but Clayton v.2005 is clearly contributing more to the team than Cintron v.2004.)

Even Terrero v.2005 is arguably better than Terrero v.2004 (2004 season: -3 WSAB, 2.5 VORP; 2005 YTD: 0 WSAB, 0.0 VORP).

This year's squad gives fans a reason to go to the ballpark. This year the bullpen regularly has a chance to blow a lead, as opposed to the rare opportunities afforded to it last year. This year the team's getting enough runners to make grounding into double plays a problem.

They still probably won't make the playoffs, but this year feels so much better than last year.

***************************

In the end, the safe choice was the actual choice: Bob Gebhard as interim GM. I don't have much of an opinion on the hiring -- there don't seem to be any big red flags in Gebhard's career, and I think the influence of the General Manager is overrated anyway. My one concern is that Gebhard views the next two months as an audition. While that's obviously a good thing, the potential problem is if the standards by which he's judged revolves around deal-making. I trust that Diamondbacks management is smart enough to not use such a blunt performance standard -- especially after the trade deadline has passed -- but we're fans. We're used to worrying over nothing.

***************************

I would normally wait until I had a collection of random posts to note this, but my friend/fellow UNC alumnus/accountant-turned-actor-writer Jack has started a sports humor blog. Jack and I (and many others) played hours of "office horse" with a Nerf hoop. We developed many arcane rules and rituals associated with a "sport" that allowed a fair amount of personal expression ("under the right leg while hopping and singing your favorite Led Zeppelin song in Ethel Merman's voice"). Blogs are the 21st-century equivalent of office horse with a Nerf hoop.

Jack's the funniest guy I know and has more sports trivia crammed into his head than is probably healthy, so I'm expecting lots from his blog. Early returns are good (I particularly enjoyed the line about "A Streetcar Named Desire"). Do check it out.

***************************

A weekend series against the Rockies. The Diamondbacks should win -- should sweep -- but they've been here before and failed miserably. (The Pirates, anyone?) Still, I have hope.

Enjoy the weekend, folks, and Go Diamondbacks!

When you open up the local newspaper in the morning and the sports page headline that wakes you out of your fuzzy-headedness is...

'Disappointing'

in, oh, about 48-point font, you know that it was Not A Good Game.

(And, no, it was not. Defensive miscues and an offense that nearly made Ezequiel Astacio look like Roger Clemens Part II.)

So rather than ramble on about that, a few words about Joe Garagiola, Jr.

How should we view Joe's tenure? Predictably, the reaction ranges from unthinking adultion (really, how can you praise Joe for recovering from the Wally Backman debacle without, er, mentioning that he helped get the team into that debacle?) to unfettered criticism all over the internet, with very little in between.

The "black-or-white" approach much journalism (and especially Internet journalism) takes leaves me very cold. It's why I've never really worried about the relative lack of give-and-take on this site -- I'm happy giving my opinion, well-considered or not, without the shouting that takes the place of dialogue on many sites.

My main issue with Joe's critics is that he never seems to get any credit for the moves that turn out well. Gonzalez for Garcia? Nobody could've ever predicted that. Signing Randy Johnson? Well, duh. Drafting Stephen Drew? Well, duh. Good drafts? Mike Rizzo's doing. Winning the World Series? All Buck Showalter's doing.

Meanwhile, Joe gets 100% of the blame for moves that turn out poorly. The Schilling trade. The Sexson trade. Every trade, in fact.

I have no problem saying that a particular move went well or turned out horribly. The Schilling trade, that was bad. That Gonzalez-Garcia trade, that was great. You get the idea.

But how much of the credit or blame should Joe get for any move? To begin with, the constant muddling of actual results and expected results (particularly from injuries) makes things more difficult to analyze, and it's easy for critics to say "no way could we have expected Gonzo to do what he did" while also saying "we could've told you Lyle Overbay would be a reeeeally good batter." Injuries obviously make things harder to analyze.

More complicated to factor into any evaluation are the boundaries any GM has to work within. Does the owner have any special requirements or preferences for players? How much say does the manager really have? Are you supposed to do everything yourself, or can you get credit for listening to others? What is the budget? Are you building a team merely to win or also to sell tickets?

That last question is really important to me, because most analysis I've read presumes the sole goal of a General Manager is to win the most ballgames or win the most playoff games, and I can't believe that that's the case. A GM needs to put together a squad that meets a variety of needs -- winning, sure, but also financially successful, entertaining, and appealing.

There are other aspects of Joe's criticism on the Internet that bug me, but this has already gone on long enough. I'll just say that while I don't think Joe was one of the top General Managers in the game, he certainly wasn't the worst. The team went 627-614 during his tenure. For a team that wasn't in existence when Joe took over, that's not bad.

So the proprietor of this fine blog finally made it out to a 2005 Diamondbacks game last night, joining nearly 32,000 fans at the BOB to watch the division-leading Diamondbacks take on Roger Clemens and the Houston Astros.

Want to know why there weren't more fans at the game?

BECAUSE THEY WERE STUCK AT THE TICKET WINDOWS!

Seriously, I bet there are people outside BOB this morning still trying to get tickets to last night's game.

My daughter, exhibiting tremendous patience (probably because she didn't want to do anything to jeopardize her shot at the promised cotton candy), and I waited in line to buy tickets for 40 minutes. I don't know if it was the library's "Read Your Way To The Ballpark" promotion (which got my daughter into the game for free), or computer problems, or people who were somehow trying to pick out the perfect seat when the game was in the 2nd or 3rd inning. But by the time I got our tickets, walked all the way around to right field, bought the cotton candy, and swiped my Diamondbackers card, it was the top of the 4th inning.

So I missed the only semblance of offense the Diamondbacks could muster against Clemens. Aside from the slight hope engendered in the bottom of the 6th, the D-Backs looked way overmatched against Clemens. Just bad.

Which isn't too say that the Astros looked much better against Claudio Vargas, who actually struck out 9 batters (as compared to Clemens' 8). But the Astros were slightly luckier with the placement of the batted balls and the timing of those hits, and by the time my daughter and I headed down to the play area at the end of the sixth inning (already an hour past my daughter's typical bedtime, it was 2-1 Astros.

I got out of the parking garage just in time to hear Lamb's homerun to put the game away, 3-1 Astros and pull into our driveway just as the first few drops of rain began to rearrange the dust on the windshield.

I tried to explain to my daughter who the big stocky guy who looked like a typical 43-year-old running out a bunt but was an amazing pitcher was (showed her his picture in the Republic this morning), and why we were sad when Gonzo seemed to have some difficulty with the Biggio double that drove in the go-ahead run.

But best of all, after peppering me with the same question or two about why "the guy" was out when the other guy "caught the ball," she explained perfectly to my wife that "when the guy catches the ball before it hits the ground, the guy who hit the ball is out."

She's a ways away from writing for Sports Illustrated, but it was still cool. Made the ticket lines and the 3 innings of actual baseball worth it...

Last week I thanked the Diamondbacks for not doing much in the prior week or so while I was mostly out-of-pocket.

The Diamondbacks must have taken that as a challenge, because I dare say this was the most exciting week of the 2005 season, with implications for the next two weeks, two months, and beyond.

So let's begin.

The Week That Was

Record: 4-3 (tied for first with the Padres for 1st place in the National League West. Don't laugh. 1st place is 1st place. No snickering.)
Runs Scored / Runs Against: 3.4 - 3.2 (high/low scores dropped)
Transactions: IF/OF Conor Jackson called up from Tucson; OF Jose Cruz Jr. DFAed (7/27). Cruz traded to Boston for RHP Kyle Bono and IF Kenny Perez (7/31); received LHP Buddy Groom from the New York Yankees for PTBNL (7/31).

The change in attitude surrounding the team from the beginning of the week is amazing, thanks almost entirely to the Padres continued flailing. I expect it to end eventually, but the D-Backs haven't exhibited anything remotely resembling this skid this year. So it's not that the Diamondbacks are poised to win the division, but they did just thump the Cubs badly in Chicago. Forgive me if I'm expressing something I've not had much chance to do since starting this blog early last year.

Glee.

We got something for Cruz. DFAing Cruz was sufficient for it to be a good move, generating opportunities for the young hotshots. The fact that we got two young players -- even if they turn out to be nothing more than organization filler -- is icing on that particular cake.

Groom is YARRPPOW! -- Yet Another Random Relief Pitcher Plucked Off Waiver. Well, technically speaking, the Diamondbacks had to trade somebody for him, but PTBNL are generally organization filler, not somebody we'll be watching on highlight reels in years to come. The D-Backs' record in plucking pitchers off the waiver wire this year has been mixed -- thumbs up to Vargas; thumbs down to, er, Kerry Ligtenberg -- but at least the D-Backs have not felt the need to trade for what are essentially interchangeable parts. The only potential downside is whomever the D-Backs will have to release/send down to Tucson to clear room for Broom on the roster. As of this writing, the Diamondbacks hadn't made that decision public.

The fact that so many teams were potential buyers this year made it much easier for the Diamondbacks to sit tight knowing that the price for anybody with the dubious possibility of aiding a dubious playoff run would be far too high. Not that there was any indication that Jackson and Quentin would be traded, but the sheer number of bidders drove their comparative value way below what they're worth.

As for the team on the field, the starting pitching continues to be an unexpected strength. The offense continues to struggle (Sunday's outburst notwithstanding). The bullpen continues to make betting on this team's games a losing proposition, maddeningly inconsistent.

The Weeks That Will Be

6 games at home (3 each against Houston and Colorado)
6 games on the road (3 each against Florida and Atlanta)

Clearly, this is the time for San Diego to once again make ground on the Diamondbacks as the D-Backs play 3 pretty good teams and 1 collection of random AAAA players + Todd Helton. And if the Diamondbacks go 5-7, the Padres could easily go 7-5 and pick up a couple games. But the D-Backs and the Padres play a very similar schedule in August, with only the fact that we play the Mets and Phillies at home while the Padres play them on the road, and they play the Pirates and Nationals instead of the D-Backs' playing the Cardinals and Reds separating the two. It is very possible that the Diamondbacks could stroll into Petco Park on August 29 in the same place they are now -- tied for first.

6 games below .500, but tied for first.

Let's see... rumors that Tony Clark is negotiating to sign an extension. I'd prefer that they not. Not that Clark doesn't deserve some extra money for this season. He leads the team in VORP. Not in VORP/PA -- flat VORP. He's fifth on the team in Win Shares. I'd gladly give him an extra $1 million. I'd just rather give it to him this year rather than next year when his luck will likely run out and he'll be taking up a roster spot best given to Quentin or Drew (see below). I can understand the need for having a veteran available to come off the bench, but as we saw with Carlos Baerga, these "out-of-nowhere" seasons usually go back to where they came from.

As for real news, Stephen Drew is now playing in AA Tennessee. Clearly Jerry Gil, if he wasn't already thinking of a career change (go for pitcher), should be, and if Sergio Santos is thinking of buying a home in Arizona, it should be purely for investment reasons. Drew will be at the major league camp next spring and I would guess has a 50/50 shot at making the major league squad. That is, assuming, he performs as well as he has thus far.

As for Joe Jr., well, give me a little while to think about that one. But in brief, while he clearly wasn't the best GM ever, I don't think he merits the utter contempt most internet denizens give him...

52-55.

First place, National League West.

If you'd told any Diamondbacks fan on April 1 that on August 1 their team would be 3 games below .500, they would've been happy. That translates to about 79 wins for the season as a whole, above all but the most optimistic of projections.

If you'd told any Diamondbacks fan on April 1 than on August 1 their team would be tied for first place in the National League West, they would've smiled and nodded politely, while slowly edging their way to the door, ready to bolt.

How in the name of Luis Emilio Gonzalez did the Diamondbacks end up here?

Well, sometimes it's better to be lucky than good, Mr. Bickley, and let us now pause a moment to thank the gods of hubris for letting the Diamondbacks play in the same division as the San Diego Padres. After the All-Star Break, the San Diego press essentially said that the division was the Padres' to lose.

A statement which the Padres have taken to heart.

They are 3-13 since the All-Star Break -- and two of those wins came against the Diamondbacks.

The Diamondbacks, meanwhile, went 9-8. Nothing spectacular, but nothing craptacular, either.

Apparently "nothing craptacular" is enough to keep you in this thing this year.

Of course, the series against the Cubs might very well have been the most encouraging all year for D-Backs fans. Taking 3 of 4 on the road against a decent Cubs squad. Scoring 25 runs. Getting great starting pitching. The Friday 4-3 loss to the Cubs was difficult, as I watched the game through to the Diamondbacks finally breaking through in the eighth inning, missing the heartbreak of the collapse in the bottom of the ninth. (Oh, for consistency -- one way or the other -- from Bruney). But they came back and held on 3-2 Saturday.

And then Sunday's game was one of those fun games where you turn on the TV every so often because you're doing other work, and every time you turn it on, the team you're cheering for has increased its lead. I didn't see a single one of the 5 homeruns, but I didn't care. 13-6. Take that, Mr. Pythagorean!

There's more to talk about -- Cruz's trade, Clark's rumored extension, Conor's arrival, a virtual YARRPPOW (Yet Another Random Relief Pitcher Plucked Off Waivers) -- but I'll get to that tomorrow.

For today, let's savor the fact that for at least another 24 hours, the Diamondbacks will be in first place in the National League West.

Hahahahahahaha!

I'd like to thank the Diamondbacks for being on autopilot during the past couple weeks. It's vastly reduced the amount of guilt I've had for not posting much during the vacation/family visits/busy time at work over the past couple weeks.

So the Diamondbacks clip along at .500 or so, just like the .500 or so team they are.

Let's see... what happened in my absence...

-- The Diamondbacks are 2 games out of first in the National League West. I'm just stunned.
-- Kata for Worrell. Typically the Diamondbacks have been picking up their interchangeable relievers via the waiver wire, so a trade seems like a little much. But Kata clearly didn't have any future with the team, so it's best for him, too. Good luck to him.
-- Dan Bickley ranting wildly on the Diamondbacks. Don't know exactly who ticked Bickley off so much that he felt the need to slam the team after ignoring them for the first 100 games of the season, but they must have said something nasty. Which is not to say that Bickley was wrong -- this team is more lucky than good -- just that it's like somebody calling the glass half empty who hadn't even asked for the water in the first place.
-- Lance Cormier. Sigh. Perhaps that "National League Rookie of the Year" thing was premature. Overworked? Perhaps. The glass-half-full approach would be to say it's just a slump, much as Halsey worked through in June. But I have no idea if that's correct.
-- Jim points out that I'm the only "indie" Diamondbacks blog left.

Which of course brings to mind this quotation from the ne plus ultra teen movie of the '80s, Say Anything...

Lloyd: I got a question. If you guys know so much about women, how come you're here at like the Gas 'n' Sip on a Saturday night completely alone drinking beers with no women anywhere?
Joe: By choice, man.

Enjoy the weekend, folks.

Well, I guess Conor Jackson's off the trading block.

Jose Cruz, Jr., designated for assignment; Conor Jackson, up from Tucson.

Now, there are many in the D-Back fan community who have been screaming for these moves loudly while fearing that Jackson -- "our precious" -- would be traded away for kibble.

I was not part of that community then, and am not of that community now, particularly as it related to the trading aspect. There had been absolutely no indication that management planned on trading Jackson (or Quentin or Santos) all season long.

Now, DFAing Cruz, I'm OK with. I -- along with just about every other Diamondback fan -- was OK with the Cruz-Fossum trade. It seemed an acceptable price to pay for a CF with just one year on his contract. Because of Cruz's back spasms, his production was limited (though, it should be noted, far better on a per-PA basis than Terrero). So the trade, based on the results, is bad. Given that the D-Backs still owe about $1.4 M on his contract (I can't imagine Cruz would refuse an assignment to Tucson for that reason alone), I wouldn't be surprised if they were willing to pay a million or so of his salary just to get some A-ball pitching prospect in return.

But I don't know if Jackson is likely to provide the D-Backs with enough offense to spark a playoff run. Keep in mind the team is still 5 games below .500.

I'd have preferred to keep Jackson in Tucson a little while longer so we could see Luis Terrero on an everyday basis for a month. We still don't have a really good sense of Terrero -- another 100 plate appearances might have helped us decide what the organization should do with him next year.

On the whole, I'm OK with this. (But with three lefties now in the outfield, if Terrero can't get into the lineup against a lefty pitcher, his fate here in Arizona must be sealed.)

More thoughts from events during my vacationary exile tomorrow.

I'm on vacation.

I hope the D-Backs aren't.

This is an odd time to be cutting back on posts, as this has been generally acknowledged to be the most crucial 10-game stretch of the season. "Most crucial" only because it occurs in mid-July, and this team still could end up being an 85- or 65-win team.

Given this weekend's series against the Padres, though, 75 wins seems most likely. A split series against the Padres. In other words, the Padres can't begin celebrating yet, but neither should us D-Back fans start keeping open the first week in October. 10-7, 4-1 Padres, 6-1 Diamondbacks on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. The offense, after hitting miserably in the BOB bandbox, goes to pitcher-friendly Petco and hits the snot out of the ball (except against Jake Peavy, and they almost never hit well against Peavy). Well, Luis Gonzalez is still in a big funk. Oddly enough, though, Chad Tracy borrowed Gonzo's bats this weekend and he hit his first multi-homerun game of his career. Glad to see the bats are working for somebody.

I don't expect a lot of major changes this week, but by next week, who knows what we'll have to gossip about.

I'll be around, but don't expect to post much.

Enjoy the monsoon.

Going to the gym in the heat and -- gasp! -- humidity of a pre-6 AM Phoenix July morning, grasshoppers scrambled to get out of my way as I walked in from the parking lot. You wouldn't even see them in front of you until they just flew away. They're in our house, too, though I think that's because we had part of our roof replaced recently and they probably snuck in that way.

In any case, they're slightly annoying, though harmless.

Unless they come in huge bunches.

Then it's some sort of plague thing and you probably should start reading religious texts of your personal preference.

So what does this have to do with Thursday night's 6-0 Diamondbacks domination of the San Diego Padres?

Well, perhaps this is nitpicking (OK, it is nitpicking), but I'd still like to see more run-clumping. The Diamondbacks were like grasshoppers on the basepaths last night -- every time you turned around, it seems like there were another couple D-Backs out there. 11 hits, 7 walks, 3 HBP. Sure there wasn't a passed ball on a third strike or something in there, too? All of a sudden, 6 runs doesn't sound quite so impressive. Green grounding out weakly to the right side in the, uh, fifth inning. Gonzo grounding out weakly to the right side in the, uh, seventh inning.

I'm really glad we won 6-0. But we could've easily won 10-0.

And until the Diamondbacks start clumping those runs, the team won't be much scarier to the rest of baseball than those grasshoppers in the parking lot.

It's, uh, been a while since I've done one of these. Life happens, no? But with the freedom granted by the All-Star Break, I feel like I can move forward with this last 44.4444444% of the season (excluding the playoffs - 'cuz we're gonna make the playoffs, RIGHT?) with new bloggy energy.

Or is that groggy energy?

Or froggy energy? ("Hi ho, dere, Kermit THE Frog here to talk to you about O! B! P!")

Or smoggy energy? (Hello, monsoon, time for you roll on in.)

Maybe it's not bloggy energy, maybe it's DELUSIONAL ENERGY.

The Week That Was
Heading all the way back to last week...
Record: 2-5 (2nd place in NL West, 5 1/2 games behind San Diego)
Runs Scored - Runs Against: 2.0 - 4.0
Transactions: DFA'ed LHP Javier Lopez, bought LHP Armando Almanza from Tucson (7/5); placed LHP Shawn Estes on 15-day DL retro to 7/6, recalled RHP Brandon Medders from Tucson (7/7).

Yeah, so that offense imploded, didn't it? Luis Gonzalez celebrated being named to the All-Star Team on the afternoon of July 3rd by going 3-for-30, with just a walk and HBP to add to those totals. Admittedly the Cardinals' pitching staff is pretty good, but the Diamondbacks shouldn't have looked so bad, especially against the anemic pitching of the Reds. The good news, of course, is that the pitching looked decent, with the whoulda-thunk-it combo of Claudio Vargas and Michael Gosling filling in nicely for Ortiz and Estes.

The Weeks That Will Be
4 on the road at San Diego
6 at home (3 versus Florida, 3 versus Atlanta)

Well, this is it, right? After these ten games the Diamondbacks will either be right at .500 within spitting distance of the Padres (not that I'm advocating that sort of thing, I'm a pretty peaceful fellow), or 8 games behind and 8 games below.

So here it is, do you hope for the Diamondbacks to do poorly this series because you don't want the Diamondbacks to trade away the talent they have for an unlikely run at a playoff spot? Sort of a sad question, frankly.

Look, if Conor Jackson gets traded for a bag of beans while the Diamondbacks are 8 games out, yeah, then I'll be ticked off. But the question isn't, "should Conor Jackson be traded," it's, "should Conor Jackson be traded for X person." I'm sure most people would be happy with an Albert Pujols-for-Conor Jackson trade (well, maybe not Cardinals fans). And even if a trade happens with the Diamondbacks out of likely playoff contention, any trade could potentially be made with an eye toward 2006. Santos for a CF? Depending on how good the CF is, I could live with it.

Well, there goes the Diamondbacks' home-field advantage in the 2005 World Series.

What? They're not going to be there anyway? Oh, phooey!

In lieu of anything substantial to say, here's a review of the team's first 55.5555555555% of the season.

First Base: Tony Clark and Chad Tracy have combined for a VORP of 38.6, 3rd in baseball for first-basemen (7th overall in NL) behind Derrek Lee and Albert Pujols. I would have to say they've exceeded expectations, no? I suspect that we've found the Tony Clark sweet spot -- too much, and he might break down. 19 Win Shares, or 11 above baseline.

Second Base: Craig Counsell (and Matt Kata) have combined for a VORP of 16.8 and 15 Win Shares (Counsell leads the team in WS), 7 above baseline. Counsell's cooled down a bit from his hot start, but he's still been effective in the leadoff spot and plays good defense.

Shortstop: Royce Clayton and Alex Cintron have combined for a stunning VORP of 4.2, with Royce's offensive contributions below zero. The 7 Win Shares, 2 below baseline, confirms that neither is stellar with the glove, either. I think defensively Clayton's presence has helped Webb (even if he just thinks it helps him), but I'm all for Cintron getting increased time in the second half to advertise him in trade or to season him for one more half-season before Santos and/or Drew join in mid-2006.

Third Base: A VORP of 22.7 (highest on the team) and 12 Win Shares, 5 above baseline, for Mr. Glaus. Good numbers, about what we expected, though not what we hoped. He's been relatively healthy thus far, but we'll see how he responds to the accumulation of aches and pains throughout the second half. There are lots of opportunities to mix up the infield occasionally to get Cintron and Clark more at-bats.

Left Field: Gonzo has a VORP of 20.2 and 13 Win Shares, 6 above baseline. He seems perfectly recovered from his 2004 surgery. Which makes him an adequate defensive player, barely. Gonzo responded to being named the D-Backs' sole All-Star by having an 8-game offensive tailspin, but should be back.

Right Field: Shawn Green has a VORP of 18.5 and 11 Win Shares, 4 above baseline. OK numbers, better than we feared, but not better than we (or Diamondbacks management) hoped. If Green displays his traditional strong second half, we'll be pleased; if he shows signs of continued aging, calls for Quentin and Jackson to be called up will become louder.

Center Field: Centerfielders, centerfielders everywhere, and not a single one meriting much confidence. Cruz, Terrero, McCracken, and Hairston (yes, he's more of a LF, but this is the catch-all category) have been middling at best. A combined VORP of -2.7 and 5 Win Shares, 4 below baseline make this the "lost position." The sad part is that Cruz started out well (and is the only CF with positive numbers here), but injuries have obviously taken their toll. Time to give Terrero more starts -- with three older starting OFs, he's a great candidate to get at least a couple starts a week in various positions. (Even if it's just to display him for trading purposes.)

Catcher: Snyder, Hill, and Stinnett have combined for a VORP of 3.4 and 4 Win Shares, 2 below baseline. Somehow I don't feel as bad about this, basically because Snyder's already a decent defensive catcher and will develop offensively. Definitely not a strength, but nowhere near as worrying as CF and SS.

Rotation: The six pitchers in the rotation -- Webb, Vazquez, Estes, Halsey, Vargas, and Ortiz -- have combined for a pitching VORP of 46.2 and 33 Win Shares, 16 above baseline. The lion's share of that comes from shoulda-been All-Star Brandon Webb and Javier Vazquez. Vazquez isn't pitching as well as he was in May, but it's OK. Estes has been a pleasant surprise; Halsey and Vargas haven't disappointed our low expectations, and Ortiz... well, let's not go there. But, overall, this is a better rotation than last year.

Bullpen: Oh boy. Lance Cormier has a pitching VORP of 15.7 and 7 Win Shares, 6 above baseline. The rest of the bullpen has a pitching VORP of -24.8 and 10 Win Shares, 7 below baseline. Clearly, some of the worst offenders of the bullpen are no longer there, as the D-Backs continue their low-risk, low-reward strategy of plucking castoffs from the waiver wire. But as long as the rotation is tiniest bit shaky and the offense sputters, we'll be forced to endure a bullpen of little consistency.

There you have it. Nothing you didn't know already, but consolidated in a tiny format. Print and enjoy.

Swept at the hands of the Cincinnati Reds? Thankfully, that didn't happen.

Tony Clark, who ranks second in the team's VORP, even though he's had just half the at-bats of everybody else, hit his 13th homerun of the year off of Eric Milton, who had looked absolutely lights out for 6 2/3 innings. Michael Gosling (MLB ERA as a starter: 3.54; MLB ERA as a reliever: 7.36) pitched 5 2/3 innings of scoreless ball.

2005 National League Rookie of the Year Lance Cormier got the win. Yes, I'm going to beat that horse into the ground, but seriously, look at the VORP -- the only two NL people ahead of him (Clint Barmes and Ryan Church) are injured.

Oh, and today's free article on BP's Predictratron? That was my idea, thankyouverymuch.

On to the All-Star Break.

I prefer the mad dash -- The Bounce, for whatever reason, looks dorky to me.

But it was nice to see the Diamondbacks mob Luis Gonzalez at home plate and do The Bounce after Gonzo's walk-off homerun off Ray King in the Diamondbacks' 2-1 victory over the Cardinals Thursday night. After spoiling a great Claudio Vargas outing by giving up the tying run in the top of the 8th, National League Rookie of the Year Lance Cormier pitched a solid 9th inning, then was the lucky beneficiary of the win.

So after two games in which the Cardinals looked every bit like the favorites to win the World Series and the Diamondbacks looked every bit like the softball team for your corner Circle K, the D-Backs came back with two closely fought games, avoided the sweep, and remained in 2nd place in the NL West. 5 1/2 games out, yes, and 7 1/2 games out in the wild card race, but 2nd place nonetheless.

One wonders if Vargas will soon lose the magic he's shown recently, as have a number of other D-Back pitching pickups did thus far this year (Javier Lopez, anyone?). But with news that Shawn Estes is heading to the DL, Vargas' spot in the rotation seems secure for awhile now. And, frankly, Brad Halsey has more to worry about when both Estes and Russ Ortiz come back.

So now the Diamondbacks are 3 games below .500 with the Cincinnati Reds coming into town. I've said this before when bad teams come into town, but we should sweep this series. And the D-Backs have let me down (Royals, anyone?) But, really, a sweep of the Reds is doable (unlikely, perhaps, but doable), and going into the All-Star Break with a .500 record would be waaaay satisfactory.

My daughter has recently taken up "Chutes and Ladders." Despite our best attempts to de-emphasize winning (we have "first winners," or we play other games in which the playing, not the winning, is the key), our daughter has shown a competitive streak that would make Lou Piniella blush. (Luckily, she's not old enough yet for an allowance, otherwise she'd be complaining that it wasn't sizeable enough.) Yesterday morning we played and she cried when I won two games in a row.

Now, I'm sensitive to this and while I think that it's important that Margaret Anne lose occasionally, I'm also not averse to throwing a match once in a while.

The problem with "Chutes and Ladders" is that you can't throw anything -- it's purely random. Spin the spinner, move the desired number of spaces and, if applicable, climb up the ladders or slide down the slides. There's no pattern -- sometimes you cycle through the same set of ladders and chutes, sometimes you hit it lucky and zoom right up to the top.

(Sometimes, if you're really bored, you note that there are 10 chutes that lose a collective 243 spaces while there are just 9 spaces that gain a collective 210 spaces. And then you understand why baseball holds such an allure for you.)

So it is this year with the Diamondbacks. Their even keel -- never reeling off too many wins or losses -- is exceeded by just four teams: Atlanta, Detroit, Pittsburgh, and Toronto. Those four teams are the only ones whose longest winning or losing streak is just five games. Arizona's is six (a winning streak, incidentally). It makes it hard to see any pattern, to get excited (one way or the other) about the team and its prospects.

********************

You turn on the radio in the morning and you hear some strange press conference with men in British accents. It takes you awhile to figure out what's happened, and when you do, your day immediately dims. Hey, that's really sad for those families. I've been at those Tube stops. What an incredibly up-and-down 24 hours for London... I think these events hit people harder because unlike natural disasters or disease or traffic accidents somebody planned for this to happen. That idea seems to upset the natural order of things (or at least my natural order).

So I'll simply applaud the beauty of last night's suicide squeeze (an unfortunate phrase to use in this light) play by the Eckstein and Taguchi and of a well-pitched effort by both sides in a 2-1 Diamondbacks loss to the Cardinals.

Patterns can be fun, but sometimes it's better to enjoy the trees than to look for the forest. Baseball is a game of joy. Of hard work and disappointment, too, to be sure, but of joy.

And so is Chutes and Ladders.

"We are trying to come up with other ways to say ['you're fired']. For instance, if someone is from Idaho, I could say, 'You're back in Boise for apple-picking time.' " -- Martha Stewart on her upcoming Apprentice show

In the elegant dance of Arizona Republic newspaper sections my wife and I perform every morning at the breakfast table, the Business section (or whatever it's called) is the wallflower, unchosen unless needed to (e.g., the wife is finishing up the "Arizona Living section). Every now and then, however, there's an article that makes my day.

Or maybe just a quotation.

Seriously, isn't that, like, the worst catch-phrase ever?

Perhaps it's got some merit, though. Let's see, for Javier Lopez, designated for assignment on Tuesday (replaced by pitcher-of-the-week Armando Almanza) and born in San Juan, Puerto Rico, perhaps Martha would say, "you're too common for the wealth of the big leagues and barely the 52nd-best player in the organization, let alone 26th -- you're back in San Juan."

Or something like that.

Feel free to vote off your least-favorite Diamondback in faux-Martha-pseudo-Donald style in the comments below.

(And, yes, I'm ignoring Tuesday's 7-1 Diamondbacks loss to the Cardinals. 'Cause this was more fun, anyway.)