Compass Points

I find it frustrating that when you comment on a Facebook post that needs to be corrected because it is soooo wrong, that all you see on your timeline (and presumably all your friends see) is that you commented on that ill-written, stupid post and NOT what you said about it. To see what you said, your friends would have to click on the post and scroll down to find your comment.

I commented on a post about Bill Nye appearing on The Last Word With Lawrence O'Donnell

What I said was that Bill Nye (The Science Guy) is dead wrong to assume there is a consensus among the scientific community on AGW/Climate Change.

Yes, the climate is changing. It always has and always will.

Has CO2 been proven to be the cause of global warming? Not yet. CO2 levels have been going up. Global temperature has been level for the last 15-17 years. And the scientific computer models Nye loves so much didn't predict that plateau nor can they explain it.

Why have those pushing huge changes in our life style only targeted North America, Europe, and Australia vis-a-vis reducing CO2 emissions when other nations/continents produce more and continue to increase their production of so called greenhouse gases? Have they even noticed or acknowledged that the US has reduced its CO2 output since the Kyoto Treaty wasa passed? And, despite not signing that worthless piece of paper, is the ONLY nation to successfully reduce its CO2 emissions? (You can thank fracking and the boom of natural gas production for that, not windmills or solar energy.)

From what I've seen of those following and supporting AGW and Climate Change, I'm not impressed with their scientific abilities. As con artistis and scammers however....

I've not been posting much here on Compass Points.

So much has been happening in politics that I find vile and disruptive to our freedoms that I can't begin to express my anger without growing frustrated. Between the Gang of 8's immigration push,  the IRS, the EPA, the NSA, the DOJ and the rest of the DC alphabet soup, can see little hope of our survival as a nation remotely resembling that the Founding Fathers established.

Our President picks and chooses the laws he wants to enforce (despite that being one of the prime responsibilities of the Executive Branch) and creates more by decree. Through the creation of czars and a Whitehouse that sets an onerous example of dictatorial aloofness, bureaucrats have taken on roles they were never meant to assume. Rules and regulations promulgated by cabinet level (or lower) appointees have choked our economy and infringed upon our freedoms.

Bengahzi, Fast and Furious, delay after delay on the XL pipeline for naught but political purpose, data gathering on private citizens, stonewalling the applications of Tea Party groups seeking tax exempt status--so as to prevent them from participating in the 2012 elections, various actions that will shut down inexpensive power generating stations in the name of Anthropogenic Global Warming (or Climate Change)--in a world that hasn't warmed in 16 years or more, a continued push for gun control headed by men from cities with deplorable illegal gun use.... I could go on and on.

And, instead of reporting the truth and focusing on the scandals embroiling out nation, the main stream press and 24-hour news channels are going all in on one distraction after another in an effort to protect the narratives(read "asses") of the Democrat Party.

All in all, things will be getting worse before they get better. I just hope that mass demonstrations will be the most that will be needed to right the wrongs being done. If it needs to--or is forced to--go beyond that, we are in a world of trouble.

There have been quite a few folks in the blogsphere mentioning a paper , prepared for the Climate Institute, titled A Climate of Suffering: The Real Cost of Living with Inaction on Climate Change. It was written up in The Sydney Morning Herald by Erik Jensen Health in an article titled: Mental illness rise linked to climate.

Health says:

RATES of mental illnesses including depression and post-traumatic stress will increase as a result of climate change, a report to be released today says.

The paper, prepared for the Climate Institute, says loss of social cohesion in the wake of severe weather events related to climate change could be linked to increased rates of anxiety, depression, post-traumatic stress and substance abuse.

As many as one in five people reported ''emotional injury, stress and despair'' in the wake of these events.

Three things to note here:

1- The paper was prepared FOR and paid FOR BY one of the leading proponents of anthropogenic global warming so it is not surprising it would tout some harmful affects from global warming.

2- This is Australia we are talking about here. The might just think THIS was a documentary. Or maybe THIS.

3- Given Al Gore's recent rants and off-the-deep-end statements (see here and here), they may be right. The man is unhinged.

[UPDATE: Anthony Watts of Watts Up With That? posted on this fallacious little article linking mental illness to climate change here. He points out that the move from a northern state to Florida--even for a week's vacation at Disney World--would have a magnitude larger affect than global warming has had in the last century. As he also points out, this is not a new linkage. "This is recycled crazy from 2008. Climate change and mental health [by] Prabhat Kumar Chand* and Pratima Murthy" and Mr. Watts concludes:"Sounds familiar, there might be plagiarism afoot, better send in John Mashey. o_O"]

A number of years ago, Terry and I went to Nantucket Island with a teaching buddy of mine, Tom, and his wife. We took his car out on the ferry and stayed at a B & B that was a short walk from the center of town. He and I went birding along the coast while the ladies went to town and peeked in the store windows. A good time was had by all and I would do it again in a heartbeat.

It was a cold, cold winter and there was lots of snow on land and ice in the water. Looking down from the lighthouse on the Atlantic side we could see ice floes with seals on them heading south. Tom got all concerned that if the harbor on either the mainland or the island froze up, we could be stuck for longer than we wanted to be. That didn't happen (dammit!) largely because the Coast Guard ice breaker in the area wouldn't let it and because the frequent movement of the ferries back and forth prevented the ice from getting too thick between trips.

I mention this story because of what's happened in the Baltic Sea:

50 ships stuck in Baltic thick ice

STOCKHOLM, March 5 (Xinhua) -- The Swedish Maritime Administration said on Thursday that about 50 vessels are stuck in the thick ice in the Baltic sea off Sweden's east coast.

Among the vessels, there are six large passenger ferries which are in total carrying more than 2,000 passengers, the administration said in a statement.

Two of the ferries, including the large Isabella passenger ferry carrying 1,322 passengers and crew, have been freed.

Four other vessels, including the Amorella, another passenger ferry with 753 passengers and 190 crew members aboard, are still stuck.

I don't imagine there's much in the way of provisions on these ferries. Those who board are not expecting more than a cruise of a few hours, not days. Should they have to remain where they are much longer, I'm sure either food drops will have to be made or evacuation via helicopter and/or hovercraft will occur.

How is this possible in these days of AGW fear mongering? (Remember, the Arctic Ocean is supposed to be experiencing record low ice levels according to the computer models. In fact, the ice extent has increased every year since 2007.)

Sweden has suffered an unusually harsh winter this year, with temperatures across the country almost continuously lying well below freezing since December.

Where's Denmark again? Oh yeah, it's on the northern shores of the Baltic Sea just to the west of Sweden.

I'm betting right about now the folks in Copenhagen are wishing they had never heard of the IPCC and Al Gore.

Watts Up With That posts a flashback article from 1989 in which scientists for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration say that the U.S. Temperature data shows NO WARMING since 1895.

A quote:

WASHINGTON, Jan. 25— After examining climate data extending back nearly 100 years, a team of Government scientists has concluded that there has been no significant change in average temperatures or rainfall in the United States over that entire period.

While the nation’s weather in individual years or even for periods of years has been hotter or cooler and drier or wetter than in other periods, the new study shows that over the last century there has been no trend in one direction or another.

The lead scientist was Dr. Kirby Hanson. Of course, he and Dr. James Hansen are quoted as saying that this study does not rule out global warming.

Tying themselves in knots even in 1989.

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Also on WUWT today is another example of twisting in the wind. Spring, sprang, sprung Three weeks ago in the UK's Daily Telegraph there was an article about spring arriving three weeks early, on average. (Three weeks early would be around now.) Today there's another talking about how spring will be late this year.

When you hop aboard a band wagon, it's important to know if it has any finite destination or if it's simply going in circles.

Terry made it back to the Aerie last night from Princeton where she had two days of classes with the Princeton Pleaters SAGA chapter. She says she had a fine time visiting with her Mom and daughter in Linden and with the folks she knew in Princeton.

The instructor for the classes she took was from just outside Sydney, Australia. having experienced the near blizzard and two feet of snow, she swears she will not be coming back unless it's 55 degrees and sunny.

Terry took off this morning for more stitching. This time with a local group from EGA.

Friday she's off to Baltimore for another stitching soiree. When that ends she'll head further south to visit for a few days with her aunt and cousin in Sumter, South Carolina.

Have needles will travel, is her motto.

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I finally got the official notice of recall for my Tundra in today's mail. Called the dealership's service department and I'm scheduled for 1 o'clock this afternoon to have the accelerator mechanism "corrected" so I don't accidentally speed off at mach 1 or something. It will take me almost as long to drive to the dealer's as it will to have the service performed. Then, of course, I have to drive home. Figure a 2:1 ratio for travel time: service. *sigh* The joys of rural living. Everything's twice as far as you think.

UPDATE: Just got back. It's 1 hour and 15 minutes each way. It took just 30 minutes to do the repair. The ratio of time traveled to time for repair was closer to 5:1. *double sigh*
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On the positive side, the weather seems to have taken a break. March has entered as a lamb--at least for now and at least for here. Temperatures are going to "soar" into the mid 30s today and there's no more than a snow shower or two on tap. Those two storms AccuHunch was trumpeting last week appear to be either further east or further south than anticipated. Hence, Maine and the Carolinas will get snow but we won't.

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Another "oops!" moment in the IPCC report. Remember how they were saying hurricane frequency and strength were directly tied to Global Warming? How as the earth got warmer we would see more and stronger hurricanes? Well, a recent peer reviewed study (a real peer review, BTW) says it ain't so.

Hey! Good news! Al Gore surfaced. (Well, he didn't actually surface. And if he had it would have been more like he "breached", if you catch my drift.) He didn't even make an appearance. No, he put his thoughts on the printed page and mailed it in.

His op-ed in the NYT on Saturday: We Can’t Wish Away Climate Change; is the usual rant about how we can't put off doing something to avert world wide apocalypse. If we don't act now to relinquish control of our world economies to a central power structure (ruled, or at least owned, my me and my friends) then we're all gonna die!!! If you really, truly believe, then send a SASE and $20 to the address below and I will send you a personally signed certificate of you're carbon neutrality. (Okay I made that last sentence up.)

As his house of cards is crumbling around him, Al is getting desperate. he admits there were two (2) mistakes in the IPCC report. (No mention of the other 18 in the report or of those in his books and documentary), so perhaps there is some hope for Albert. They do say the first step is to recognize your mistakes. Ah, who am I kidding, after the 2000 election, Al has gone off the deep end. He is Dr. Evil, the Mad Plotter, and Wile E. Coyote, Super Genius all wrapped up in one. He thought he had a means to real power and wealth but he orders his science from Acme and it's now become dross.

True Believers are looking at the poor science behind the IPCC report and are starting to realize that they've been, well, gored. He's been asked to answer questions in Congress. He won't go without a subpoena. He knows the meaning of the word perjury and would have to tell the truth as he doesn't have the high political position that saved his previous boss from jail time.

It's time for this snake oil salesman, con artist, plotter to fold up his tent and fade into the Tennessee hills--if they'll have him.

UPDATE: Interesting post on Powerline by John Hinderaker: Global Warming Fraud: The Big Picture

If you've been following the saga of climategate over the last few weeks you've heard about numerous shenanigans, manipulations, and down right lies that went into the ICCP report upon which huge amounts of cash and power were dependent. You may have read (in the British press because that of the good ol' USA seems to have dropped the ball on this story) that even the head of the Climate Research Unit at East Anglia, Phil Jones, is now admitting that there has been virtually no warming occurring over the last fifteen years or so.

Yet, here in the states, some of our political critters continue to beat the drum against man caused global warming. You know that doesn't exist. (Sort of like being gung-ho to go out a fight dragons while riding your unicorn.) I credit their obstinacy to that power and cash I mentioned above.

In all the hullabaloo there is one person who has not spoken up. One prime figure leading up to the Copenhagen climate meeting who was constantly in the papers, giving speeches, haranguing "deniers" for their "false" beliefs. The man who dubbed global warming "An Inconvenient Truth."



Just where in the world is Al Gore anyway?
And why isn't the press banging down his door to ask him questions?

Climate talks deadlocked as clashes erupt outside

The 10-day-old climate talks ran into disputes and paralysis as they entered a critical stage Wednesday, just two days before President Barack Obama and more than 100 other national leaders hope to sign a historic agreement to fight global warming.

Poorer nations stalled the talks in resistance to what they saw as efforts by the rich to impose decisions falling short of strong commitments to reduce greenhouse gases and to help those countries hurt by climate change. Conference observers said, however, that negotiators still had time to reach agreements.

It's all about the money. The poorer nations want to milk the "richer" nations for all they can get. They won't necessarily use it to do anything "green" but they will make sure the ruling classes in each of their countries get a good chunk of change from each concession made by the more wealthy countries.

The eco-mob in the streets doing all the protesting and enjoying the occasional whiff of tear gas mixed with freezing temperatures and snow will get nothing but frostbite and memories.

Frankly, if I were in charge of crowd control, I would have pulled out a few fire trucks with large capacity tanks. I wouldn't need to use the high pressure hoses, just a gentle spray. Getting wet at 32 degrees F can do a lot to discourage a mob.

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Then there's this harbinger of failure at home and abroad:

Sen. Kerry wavers on backing for cap-and-trade bill in Copenhagen

“I can’t tell you the method or the means, amount, by which we might price carbon. I can’t tell you that. We have not resolved that issue yet,” Kerry said at a press conference after his speech at the international climate summit.

He expressed confidence that the Senate will follow the House in approving a major climate and energy bill, but linked the Senate’s success to international negotiators reaching a deal this week in Copenhagen.

“Success in Copenhagen is really critical to success next year in the United States Senate, in the Congress,” he said.
(emphasis added)

Perhaps the Flip-Flop Champeen of the World is starting to see the writing on the wall. Going into this conference, it was the actions of the EPA that would produce action at Copenhagen. Suddenly, the rolls have been reversed. Action in Copenhagen will create a climate (no pun intended) wherein the Congress will act. From the above, it doesn't sound like that Cozy Copenhagen Cooperation will be forthcoming.

They came thisclose to pulling it off, and would have done so if not for the dilligent work of a few and the luck of having all those CRU files leaked.

...he sees it all slipping away. The power. The fame. The glory. The money.But mostly the money.

The snow must have prevented some of the delegates from taking global warming seriously.

Gore calls for July summit to finish climate treaty...in Mexico City where even the Goracle might have a tough time making it cold and snowy in July.

"I do not believe that we can wait until next November or next December," said Gore,

Yeah, he's got to do something before even more folks understand the workings of the IPCC and the mere 60 insider scientists driving the entire "crisis" with faulty computer models and select data. Otherwise, all that $$$ he's invested in carbon credits won't be worth the paper it is printed on.

"I will ask my fellow US citizens who share my sense of urgency to join me in asking President Obama and the leadership of the US Senate to set a deadline of April 22, 2010 -- the 40th anniversary of Earth Day -- for final action on the US legislation," Gore said.

Good luck with that, Al. The final action most every American is seeking is a swift and final burial of Cap & Tax. And maybe a bit of evisceration of the EPA's declaration of CO2 among the gases "harmful to mankind."

Of course, Al couldn't let a speech go by without calling his opponents names:

Gore said that only "reckless fools" reject the science behind global warming.

The problem is that there is warming and there is Anthropogenic Global Warming. There are many who will agree that the former is happening to some degree but who will say that there is little or no proof that AGW is happening and to assume we humans can stop the warming is over reach at best and pure hubris at worst.

Gray, dreary day at the Aerie today. It wasn't supposed to be like that but it happened. The temperatures hovered between 30 and 36 degrees while the cloud cover allowed no peek at the sun. And tonight we are supposed to be getting some light rain/snow showers. I'm going to start taking screen shots of the forecasts every day. Each forecast seems to have a shelf life shorter than a fresh mushroom on the counter top. Twelve hours and they get mushy. Twenty-four and they're a pile of useless goo. last week there was little precipitation on the drawing board, now every day has some form of precip. Yeah, it's only 30 or 40% chance but still, it can get depressing as we approach the Winter Solstice, aka the shortest day of the year.

Accu-hunch has already started to hype a possible storm moving up the coast later this week. Like hurricane's they've put up three possible tracks starting off the Florida Gulf Coast. One goes out to sea and produces little or no effect on shore. One is closer and will produce some rain along the coast. The third moves north very close to the shore and will spread snow all along the Appalachians.

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I noticed that Al Gore is in Copenhagen. I also notice that there's a forecast for about 6 inches of snow within the next day or two. And the temperature will be at or below 32 degrees F through the weekend.

Algore also is reported to have said that the Arctic Ice Cap will disappear with in the next five to seven years. Well, that gives us an idea as to why Gore flunked out of divinity school. You do not set a firm date for the apocalypse or the coming of the messiah when you want to keep your followers. For when that date comes and goes without your prophecy coming true, you're in deep doo-do.

UPDATE: The scientist Gore quoted as his source says he has no idea what Gore is talking about as he, the scientist, never made such a prediction. Don Surber as amended his post to include that quote. It's good for a laugh.

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The feeders in the yard are really attracting a crowd. In addition to lots of mourning doves, chickadees, juncoes, goldfinches, blue jays, white-breasted nuthatches, hairy and downy woodpeckers, and red-bellied woodpeckers, we had a small flock of turkeys come by yesterday and the day before we had three red-winged blackbirds. Gray squirrels are also increasing in number now that there's snow on the ground. There were nine of them out there this morning. Everybody wants a free lunch.

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I got all the small pieces of the wooden quilt square glued down this afternoon. Now it's a matter of attaching the backer board and frame pieces. That should take me about an hour. Then I can clean up as much of the saw dust as possible before starting the next project, perhaps something using the scroll saw.

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That's about all I've got today. The BS going on vis-a-vis global warming, health care, stimulus, job's created and saved, etc, is just too upsetting to deal with right now.

That's what we are faced with right now. Choosing just one or even two things going on in our world economically, politically, socially, or scientifically is damn near impossible. There are just too many to choose from.

You've got Obama's jobs summit attended by unions and not chamber of commerce members and now with a NEW! and IMPROVED! Jobs Program (no thanks to the GOP who created this mess, he says). And, as an added bonus, despite having rung up a gazillion dollars in debt in less than a year, President Obama wants us to spend our way out of the current recession.

There's Harry Reid over there saying stupid things--but that's not news.

The best and the brightest are protecting us at the TSA. They're just not doing so well at protecting their manuals. You know, the ones on screening procedures at airports.

And Rep. Charlie Rangel (who occasionally forgets to pay his tax bills, what property he owns--and what islands it's on--and how many rent controlled apartments he has) is meeting with Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner (who also forgets to pay his taxes on occasion) to reform our tax code. You can't make this stuff up.

We've got international leaders (?) meeting in Copenhagen to hammer out a deal on Anthropogenic Global Warming while a hell of a blizzard rips through the heartland of the USA. One U.N. representative says the period from 2000 to 2009 may well be the "warmest decade on record."

Dr. James Hansen trying to pump up the hype on AGW ("We're all gonna DIE!") Oh, and he wants to promote his book while he's at it. The man really should be fired from NASA.

The EPA saying CO2 (necessary for plants and a natural by product of all living things on earth) at 0.03 % of the atmosphere is such a dire, foul substance that it must be regulated as a hazard to human life.

I refuse to bring up Tiger Woods' peccadilloes. Or the cancellation of "As The World Turns" after 76 years on the tube.

Or this out of North Carolina: NC woman accused of selling moonshine at day care. I bet the little nippers took long naps.

Or this story out of Germany: Coffee tax collection costs dwarf revenue (At first glance I thought it was a story about demitasse, it is not. It's about spending more to collect taxes than, well, the taxes amount to. Stupidity knows no bounds.)


So I'll stick to the weather.

Speaking of which: Must have been cold in Boise, Idaho: Boise firefighters rescue boy whose tongue was stuck to metal pole. ya know, you can show kids that this happens--and that it hurts--over and over again but there's always going to be some fool to come along with a triple-dog-dare-ya and WHAM! next thing you know it's time for a little warm water and gentle pulling.

Here at the Aerie, we are looking at 2-4 inches of snow turning to freezing rain with a 1/10 of an inch of ice accumulation before it switches to all rain tomorrow. (I hope they're right about that! Could be a first this week...but it is only Tuesday/Wednesday.)

ADDED: The End of the Line for Climate Hysteria? Read the whole thing.

The AGW meme must be imploding big time:

Gore cancels on Copenhagen lecture – leaves ticketholders in a lurch

Or maybe Gore just didn't want the whole thing to be snowed out.

Remember, this is the man with a Nobel Prize and an Oscar for his hype work and a bank vault full of weregelt from his proselytizing. This is also the man who has said repeatedly that "the science is settled" and refuses to debate any one of the many, many scientists who believe he is in error.

Thank goodness for Florida 2000!

(as seen at Watt's Up With That)

Under the heading of "Be careful what you wish for..."

Antarctica may heat up dramatically as ozone hole repairs, warn scientists

The hole in the Earth's ozone layer has shielded Antarctica from the worst effects of global warming until now, according to the most comprehensive review to date of the state of the Antarctic climate. But scientists warned that as the hole closes up in the next few decades, temperatures on the continent could rise by around 3C on average, with melting ice contributing to a global sea-level increases of up to 1.4m.

Let me first say that I sincerely doubt that the ice cap will melt if the average temperature rises just 3 degrees C. It will still be freakin' cold! They don't get many days above 0 degrees C on Antarctica but they get an awful lot of them at minus 20 and minus 30 degrees C.

My second thought is if the temperature did rise, wouldn't that allow for more evaporation and eventually precipitation? The place is a desert now getting only a meager amount of snow each year. More precipitation would mean more snow replacing the melting ice on the edges of the continent.

Third, wasn't it just a few short years ago that scientist screamed that we had to do something to shrink the ozone hole or we would all fry under the sun's brutal UV rays?

Yeah, I thought so.

A perfect example of why no one should be jumping to "do something" about AGW. Which doesn't exist. Or any global warming which hasn't existed for the last 11 years picture of polar bears on ice floes or not.

Oh for crying out loud! Let's just call these: "Stuck on Stupid!"


Boxer: Hackers should face criminal probe over 'Climategate'
This in response to a call by Sen. Inhofe to investigate the scientists for possible fraud since they 1) fudged data, 2) destroyed the original data, 3) violated FOI laws, 4) apparently trashed the peer review process, etc., etc., etc.

Sen. Kerry sees 'definite Republican votes' for climate change legislation
(But he's not naming names. sounds like a strawman to me. "They" will vote for it so you should to.)

Obama Science Adviser Urges Climate Action Amid Uproar

The adviser, John Holdren, said scientists generally are capable of defensiveness, bias and "misbehavior." But he said the meaning of some of the statements in the emails isn't clear, and that the significance of others has been exaggerated.

Human activity is "beyond any reasonable doubt" the primary cause of warming temperatures, Mr. Holdren said.

Mr. Holdren's comments drew a unanimously supportive response from Democrats

I guess there's too much power and money to let a little thing like fraudulent "science" get in the way.

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Perhaps the folks still clinging bitterly to their AGW should listen to some real scientists. This is especially true for Senators Kerry and Boxer as well as Carol Browner (one of Omaba's czars dealing with global warming) who has said she will stick with the 2500 scientists promoting Anthropogenic Global Warming. Most of whom have either direct connections to the East Anglia Climate Research Unit or who have used the same fudged data.

Flawed climate data

Steve [McIntyre] and I [Ross McKitrick] showed that the mathematics behind the Mann Hockey Stick were badly flawed, such that its shape was determined by suspect bristlecone tree ring data. Controversies quickly piled up: Two expert panels involving the U.S. National Academy of Sciences were asked to investigate, the U.S. Congress held a hearing, and the media followed the story around the world.

The expert reports upheld all of our criticisms of the Mann Hockey Stick, both of the mathematics and of its reliance on flawed bristlecone pine data. One of the panels, however, argued that while the Mann Hockey Stick itself was flawed, a series of other studies published since 1998 had similar shapes, thus providing support for the view that the late 20th century is unusually warm. The IPCC also made this argument in its 2007 report. But the second expert panel, led by statistician Edward Wegman, pointed out that the other studies are not independent. They are written by the same small circle of authors, only the names are in different orders, and they reuse the same few data climate proxy series over and over.

Go read the whole thing for a clearer definition of "circle jerk."

CLIMATE CHANGE 'FRAUD'

THE scientific consensus that mankind has caused climate change was rocked yesterday as a leading academic called it a “load of hot air underpinned by fraud”.

Professor Ian Plimer condemned the climate change lobby as “climate comrades” keeping the “gravy train” going.

Professor Plimer wrote Heaven and Earth: Global Warming, The Missing Science wherein he goes into great detail as to what the climate "experts" missed in their investigation into global warming as they rushed to pronounce it "Anthropogenic" (man-made) in nature and that "the science is settled." (BTW Professor Plimer freely admits the Earth has warmed over the last 18,000 years and, more specifically since around 1800 AD. That's what happens after an ice age.)

Jon Stewert on Climategate



If you've lost Jon Stewert, you've lost the battle.

Just say no to Copenhagen and Cap and Tax

Experiments

Step three of the Scientific Method is to perform an experiment to test your Hypothesis. That sounds easy but it is anything but. To have a valid test you must control all but one of the variables. In the laboratory and for a basic experiment that may be possible but once you’ve opened the door and gone into the real world it can get complicated very, very quickly.

Let’s say you wanted to test the Hypothesis: “Increased temperature will cause Joshua trees to grow more robustly as measured by the thickness of the rings in the trunk at chest height.”

First you must control for all the things that might affect the growth of the tree: water, amount of sunlight, gases in the air, nutrients in the ground, organisms in the ground, etc. In the lab you might be able to start with a closed cabinet in which you’ve placed a sterile loam soil. Controlled amounts of nutrients (fertilizer) could be provided. Controlled amount of water could be provided. The amount of “sunlight” can be controlled by artificial lights. The very air within the cabinet can be controlled by hermetically sealing the dang thing. Make ten or more of these cabinets all of them identical in content. Use genetically identical seeds or cuttings of the tree species to be tested. NOW you can vary the temperature in each of those cabinets so each is, say two degrees C different ranging from 0 degrees C on up to 20 degrees C. To ensure things are truly like the natural world, you turn all the temperatures down in all the cabinets to -5 degrees C for six months out of every twelve.

Oops, better do three of each--just in case.

So you’ve got 36 or so identical cabinets in which everything is identical except the temperature. There are three that are at 0 degrees C, three at 2 degrees C, three at 4 degrees C, etc., etc., up to three at 20 degrees C. Easy.

Now all you have to do is monitor your cabinets for a couple of years for your trees to grow several new rings. Then you take core samples from each tree (or cut them in half to take a disk out) at chest height and measure the thickness of those rings. Did the trees produce thicker rings (more growth) at higher temperatures?

Regardless of your results, you submit your paper describing your experiment and its results to a peer reviewed journal so others can examine your work and duplicated it if they so desire.

That’s the way it’s supposed to be.

Now, take your experiment outside. Can you control the numerous variables? Unlikely. The genetic variability in the trees alone is a problem. Add the variability of soils, sunlight, yearly differences in precipitation, disease and insect infestation, etc. and you’ve got one heck of a head ache.

Yet that is precisely what some of the scientists at the Climate Research Unit have tried to do in reverse. They are trying to say that increased growth in tree rings is indicative of higher temperatures. (Or, conversely, smaller growth rings are indicative of colder temperatures.) From this they have constructed a computer model to predict the future.

The problem is, as I understand it, they have used a small sample of trees from a limited number of very localized sites. A group of trees, it must be noted, that confirms their hypothesis when certain “corrections” have been made. (Larger samples were available and other researchers have used them to refute the hypothesis.) And they then produced a computer model that can’t account for recent past temperatures. Oops!

UPDATE: About those computer models: Climategate Computer Codes Are the Real Story

"I think there’s a good reason the CRU didn’t want to give their data to people trying to replicate their work.

It’s in such a mess that they can’t replicate their own results."

Western MT cold breaks records

Missoula's official low temperature of 10 degrees Saturday broke a 36-year record. Kalispell was just 5 degrees, well below the previous record of 16 degrees set in October of 1987.
...
The winds are expected to blow up to 25 miles per hour, creating wind chill of up to 20 below for the Flathead and Mission valleys, and around 10 below in the Missoula Valley.

Cold temperatures threaten seed potato crop

Record-low temperatures in southwestern Idaho are threatening to destroy at least a portion of this season's crop of seed potatoes.

Spuds still in the ground could be saved by a layer of snow; a dusting had fallen on Bozeman and the surrounding region by Sunday.
...
Temperatures on Saturday evening dipped to 17 degrees; the last time it was this cold, this early, in southwestern Idaho was more than two decades ago, in 1985.

Going 'cold turkey' on Columbus Day

Sunday's very chilly 44-degree high was more typical of Thanksgiving than just before Columbus Day, and it followed fall's first widespread hard freeze that dropped Sunday morning lows into the middle and upper 20s except for areas very close to the lake. O'Hare International Airport's 29 degrees was the coldest since April 2, when it dropped to 28, and Rockford's 25-degree low broke a record dating back to 1987, when it was 26. The Chicago area, along with much of the Midwest and Plains, has been locked in a chilly pattern since late September with little prospect for warming in the short term. Snow covers much of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, and up to 5 more inches are expected Monday.

Rockies, fans feel the chill at Coors Field

Nearly four hours into the game, the weather had frosted even the most hot-blooded of fans. From the middle innings on, a steady stream of human icicles headed out through the exits.
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All this bravado, though, does not mean Rockies fans took the cold lightly. This was, after all, a game with a first-pitch temperature of 35 degrees. A game so cold — it beat out the previous coldest postseason baseball game by at least 3 degrees, depending on whose reading you believe — it turned everyone, even the most die-hard Philadelphia Phillies fan, a little purple.

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And this Columbus Day morning it's just 32 degrees at 7 AM here at the Aerie. Of course, it's colder down in the valley (cold air sinks) than it is here at 2100 feet. There is a light frost on the Tundra's and Jeep's windshields, however, and the house's heating system is pumping hot water through the pipes.

Weather.com says we should get up to around 53 today. The average high is 63 degrees.

The Wisconsin State Journal reports: Gore upbeat on climate bill

Former Vice President Al Gore shared his optimism about the "shifting momentum" of the climate change debate with about 500 environmental journalists Friday in Madison.

Missing from the report is any mention of the weather in Madison this weekend. Saturday, according to weather.com they had a high of 41 degrees (average for October 10th is 63) and a low of 29 degrees (average is 41). To repeat: The high was the average low. This morning, at 7:45 AM local, it's 29 degrees in Madison.

The man is doubling down in his push for cap and trade.

The man is an idiot.

And let us not forget that it was a record 17 degrees in Denver on Saturday. The old record low for October 10th was 25 degrees. They didn't just break the record, they shattered it.