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Effects of climate change on snowpack and fire potential in the western USA

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Abstract

We evaluate the implications of ten twenty-first century climate scenarios for snow, soil moisture, and fuel moisture across the conterminous western USA using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model. A decline in mountain snowpack, an advance in the timing of spring melt, and a reduction in snow season are projected for five mountain ranges in the region. For the southernmost range (the White Mountains), spring snow at most elevations will disappear by the end of the twenty-first century. We investigate soil and fuel moisture changes for the five mountain ranges and for six lowland regions. The accelerated depletion of mountain snowpack due to warming leads to reduced summer soil moisture across mountain environments. Similarly, warmer and drier summers lead to decreases of up to 25% in dead fuel moisture across all mountain ranges. Collective declines in spring mountain snowpack, summer soil moisture, and fuel moisture across western mountain ranges will increase fire potential in flammability-limited forested systems where fuels are not limiting. Projected changes in fire potential in predominately fuel-limited systems at lower elevations are more uncertain given the confounding signals between projected changes in soil moisture and fuel moisture.

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Acknowledgements

This work was made possible in part through grant GS277A-B from the Northwest Climate Science Center to the University of Washington. The authors would like to thank Charles Luce, Anne Nolin, and an anonymous reviewer for their helpful comments and insights.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, 201 More Hall, Box 352700, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA

    Diana R. Gergel, Bart Nijssen & Matt R. Stumbaugh

  2. Department of Geography, University of Idaho, 875 Perimeter Dr., MS 3021, Moscow, ID, 83844, USA

    John T. Abatzoglou

  3. Department of Geography, University of California Los Angeles, 1255 Bunche Hall, Box 951524, Los Angeles, CA, 90095, USA

    Dennis P. Lettenmaier

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  1. Diana R. Gergel
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  2. Bart Nijssen
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Correspondence to Bart Nijssen.

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Gergel, D.R., Nijssen, B., Abatzoglou, J.T. et al. Effects of climate change on snowpack and fire potential in the western USA. Climatic Change 141, 287–299 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-1899-y

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