References contributed by usersubmitted
- (2013). The base countries are Australia, Belgium, France, Germany, India, Malaysia, South Africa, the U.K., and the U.S. The base country can change as it has happened to Ireland, for example. Its base country was the U.K. until the mid-1970s, and changed to Germany since Ireland joined the European Monetary System (EMS). To construct the crisis dummies in three-year panels, we assign the value of one if a crisis occurs in any year within the three-year period.
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- Ahmed, S. and A. Zlate. 2013. “Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies: A Brave New World?†Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System International Finance Discussion Papers, #1081. Washington, D.C.: Federal Reserve Board (June).
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Aizenman, Joshua and Hiro Ito. 2014. “Living with the Trilemma Constraint: Relative Trilemma Policy Divergence, Crises, and Output Losses for Developing Countries†Journal of International Money and Finance 49 p.28-51, (May). Also available as NBER Working Paper #19448 (September 2013).
Aizenman, Joshua and Hiro Ito. 2016. “East Asian Economies and Financial Globalization in the Post-Crisis World†NBER Working Paper 22268 (May 2016).
Aizenman, Joshua, Menzie D. Chinn, and Hiro Ito. 2010. “The Emerging Global Financial Architecture: Tracing and Evaluating New Patterns of the Trilemma Configuration,†Journal of International Money and Finance 29 (2010) 615–641. 24 Caballero, Ricardo, Emmanuel Farhi, and Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas. 2008. “An Equilibrium Model of ‘Global Imbalances’ and Low Interest Rates,†American Economic Review, 98(1) (March): 358-393.
Aizenman, Joshua, Menzie D. Chinn, and Hiro Ito. 2011. “Surfing the Waves of Globalization: Asia and Financial Globalization in the Context of the Trilemma,†Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, vol. 25(3), p. 290 – 320 (September).
Aizenman, Joshua, Menzie D. Chinn, and Hiro Ito. 2016. “Monetary Policy Spillovers and the Trilemma in the New Normal: Periphery Country Sensitivity to Core Country Conditions,†Journal of International Money and Finance, Volume 68, November 2016, Pages 298–330. Also available as NBER Working Paper #21128 (May 2015).
Aizenman, Joshua, Yin-Wong Cheung, and Hiro Ito. 2015. “International Reserves Before and After the Global Crisis: Is There No End to Hoarding?†Journal of International Money and Finance Volume 52 (April 2015), Pages 102–126.
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- Banking crisis – It is from Aizenman and Ito (2014) who follow the methodology of Laeven and Valencia (2008, 2010, 2012). For more details, see Appendix 1 of Aizenman and Ito (2014).
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Calvo, G. and C.M. Reinhart, 2002, “Fear of Floating,†Quarterly Journal of Economics No. 117 Vol. 2, pp. 379-408.
Chinn, Menzie D. and Hiro Ito. 2007. “Current Account Balances, Financial Development and Institutions: Assaying the World 'Savings Glut',†Journal of International Money and Finance, Volume 26, Issue 4, p. 546-569 (June).
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- Currency crisis – It is from Aizenman and Ito (2014) who use the exchange market pressure (EMP) index using the exchange rate against the currency of the base country. We use two standard deviations of the EMP as the threshold to identify a currency crisis.
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Eichengreen, Barry and Ricardo Hausmann. 1999. “Exchange Rates and Financial Fragility,†Paper presented at the symposium New Challenges for Monetary Policy, August 26–28, Jackson Hole, WY.
Eichengreen, Barry, and Poonam Gupta, 2014, “Tapering Talk: The Impact of Expectations of Reduced Federal Reserve Security Purchases on Emerging Markets, mimeo (UC Berkeley: January).
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Eichengreen, Barry, Andrew Rose and Charles Wyplosz. 1996. “Contagious Currency Crises: First Testsâ€, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 98(4), pp. 463−484.
- Estimates 1992-1994 1995-1997 1998-2000 2001-2003 2004-2006 2007-2009 2010-2012 2013-2014 IDC Sample Real Global Fin. Global Cross-link 0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1 % of Sig.
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- Estimates 1992-1994 1995-1997 1998-2000 2001-2003 2004-2006 2007-2009 2010-2012 2013-2014 IDC Sample Real Global Fin. Global Cross-link 46 Figure 2: Continued (iv) CE: REER ïƒ PH: EMP (v) CE: REER ïƒ PH: Stock market price change 47 Figure 3: Proportion of Significant 𜸠̂’s (i) CE: Policy Interest Rate ïƒ PH: Policy Interest Rate (ii) CE: Policy Interest Rate ïƒ PH: REER (iii) CE: REERïƒ PH: REER 0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1 % of Sig.
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- Estimates 1992-1994 1995-1997 1998-2000 2001-2003 2004-2006 2007-2009 2010-2012 2013-2014 LDC Sample Real Global Fin. Global Cross-link 0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1 % of Sig.
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- Exchange market pressure (EMP) index –It is defined as a weighted average of monthly changes in the nominal exchange rate, the international reserve loss in percentage, and the nominal interest rate. The nominal exchange rate is calculated against the base country that we use to construct the trilemma indexes (see Aizenman, et al., 2008). The weights are inversely related to each country’s standard deviations of each of the changes in the three components over the sample countries. ) % (% ) ( [ ) (% , , , , , b t i t b t i t i t i r r i i e
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Forbes, K. J. and F. E. Warnock, 2012. Capital Flow Waves: Surges, Stops, Flight, and Retrenchment. Journal of International Economics, 88(2), 235-251.
Forbes, Kristin J. and Menzie D. Chinn. 2004. “A Decomposition of Global Linkages in Financial Markets over Time,†The Review of Economics and Statistics, August, 86(3): 705–722.
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- Hung, J. H. 2009. “China’s Approach to Capital Flows since 1978†In Y.W. Cheung and K. Wang, ed. China and Asia: Economic and Financial Interactions, Routledge Studies in the Modern World Economy.
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Ito, H. and C. Rodriguez. 2015. “Clamoring for Greenbacks: Explaining the Resurgence of the US Dollar in International Debt.†RIETI Working Paper 15-E-119 (October).
Ito, H. and M. Kawai. 2012. “New Measures of the Trilemma Hypothesis and Their Implications for Asia.†ADBI Working Paper 381. (February 2012).
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Laeven, L. and F. Valencia. 2010. “Resolution of Banking Crises: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly,†IMF Working Paper No. 10/44. Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund.
- Laeven, L. and F. Valencia. 2012. “Systematic Banking Crises: A New Database,†IMF Working Paper WP/12/163, Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund. 26 Laeven, L. and F. Valencia. 2008. “Systematic Banking Crises: A New Database,†IMF Working Paper WP/08/224, Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund.
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Obstfeld, M., J. C. Shambaugh, and A. M. Taylor. 2005. “The Trilemma in History: Tradeoffs among Exchange Rates, Monetary Policies, and Capital Mobility.†Review of Economics and Statistics 87 (August): 423–438.
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Saxena, Sweta C. 2008. “Capital Flows, Exchange Rate Regime and Monetary Policy,†BIS Papers No 35. Basle: Bank for International Settlements.
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