- (A5) The test can be implemented simply by estimating the conventional regression discontinuity parameter from the restricted sample of Di = 1 (all vaccinated sample) following Kim and Lee (2017). Similarly, using the restricted sample of Di = 0 (all unvaccinated sample), we can define and identify selection heterogeneity between never-takers and compliers by testing whether the following difference is zero: E[Xi | Gi = N & Zi = τ] − E[Xi | Gi = C & Zi = τ] = PC τ + PN τ PC τ % lim z'τ E[Xi | Zi = z & Di = 0] − lim z&τ E[Xi | Zi = z & Di = 0] &
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- (A6) Lastly, we assess the external validity of LATE to other compliance groups (Brinch et al. 2017, Bertanha and Imbens 2020). External validity can be defined as independence between potential outcomes and compliance types: Gi ⊥ (Yi (0),Yi (1)) | Zi (A7) If assumption (A7) holds, we can say that the local treatment effect can be also applied to the other compliance groups. In our study, we compare the mean of Yi (1) between compliers and always-takers and the mean of Yi (0) between compliers and never-takers jointly to test whether assumption (A7) holds near the eligibility cutoff. That is, we test jointly for the pair of restrictions: lim z'τ E[Yi | Zi = z & Di = 1] = lim z&τ E[Yi | Zi = z & Di = 1] (A8) lim z'τ E[Yi | Zi = z & Di = 0] = lim z&τ E[Yi | Zi = z & Di = 0] (A9) Note that the term in large parentheses in equation (A8) and (A9) corresponds to the RD estimate for the sample of all vaccinated or all unvaccinated sample, respectively.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- 1Time intervals are given in the data as follows. The first date of each time interval is May 1, 14, 27, June 7, 19, July 1, 13, 26, August 5, 16, September 5, 14, and 27. The first three intervals are before the start date of first dose eligibility for those born in 1961. 2It is difficult to interpret the estimate because it is ambiguous whether it reflects the effect of the second dose or the delayed effect of the first dose.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Abadie, Alberto. 2003. “Semiparametric instrumental variable estimation of treatment response models.” Journal of Econometrics 113 (2): 231–263.
- Agrawal, Virat, Neeraj Sood, and Christopher M Whaley. 2022. “The ex-ante moral hazard effects of COVID-19 vaccines.”Technical report, National Bureau of Economic Research.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Alsan, Marcella, and Sarah Eichmeyer. 2021. Experimental Evidence on the Effectiveness of Non-Experts for Improving Vaccine Demand. National Bureau of Economic Research.
- Although the failure to reject equations (A8) and (A9) could lend support to external validity, the caveat of this test is that it does not have power to test all the sufficient conditions for assumption (A7) because the equality of means does not necessarily imply the equality of distributions (Bertanha and Imbens 2020). Also, the means of Yi (1) of never-takers and of Yi (0) of always-takers are still not identified, and therefore, the test result should be interpreted as weak evidence of external validity.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Aslim, Erkmen G, Wei Fu, Chia-Lun Liu, and Erdal Tekin. 2022. “Vaccination Policy, Delayed Care, and Health Expenditures.”Technical report, National Bureau of Economic Research.
- B Difference-in-differences estimation In this section, we employ an event-study difference-in-differences (DID) framework as an alternative approach to our regression discontinuity method. The eventstudy DID model estimates how the differences in outcomes between those born in 1961 and 1962 evolve over time before and after the start date of the first and second dose vaccination. To do so, we use raw data from the credit card company where individual expenditures are aggregated in about ten-day intervals.1 To be consistent with the credit card data, we also aggregate vaccination rate and air travel data, which are available at the daily level, into the same time intervals.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Belot, Michèle, Syngjoo Choi, Julian C Jamison, Nicholas W Papageorge, Egon Tripodi, and Eline Van den Broek-Altenburg. 2020. “Six-country survey on COVID-19.” Bernal, Jamie Lopez, Nick Andrews, Charlotte Gower et al. 2021. “Effectiveness of the Pfizer-BioNTech and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines on covid-19 related symptoms, hospital admissions, and mortality in older adults in England: test negative case-control study.” British Medical Journal 373.
Bertanha, Marinho, and Guido W Imbens. 2020. “External validity in fuzzy regression discontinuity designs.” Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 38 (3): 593–612.
Brinch, Christian N, Magne Mogstad, and Matthew Wiswall. 2017. “Beyond LATE with a discrete instrument.” Journal of Political Economy 125 (4): 985–1039.
- Bughin, Jacques R, Michele Cincera, Kelly Peters, Dorota Reykowska, Marcin Żyszkiewicz, and Rafal Ohme. 2020. “Make it or break it: vaccination intent at the time of Covid-19.” Available at SSRN 3757618.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Einav, Liran, Amy Finkelstein, Tamar Oostrom, Abigail Ostriker, and Heidi Williams. 2020. “Screening and selection: The case of mammograms.” American Economic Review 110 (12): 3836–3870.
Evans, William N, and John D Graham. 1991. “Risk reduction or risk compensation ? The case of mandatory safety-belt use laws.” Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 4 (1): 61–73.
- Figure A14: Effects of vaccine eligibility on social distancing behaviors at different age cutoffs (credit card data and airline data) Panel A. Average daily offline transactions 1971–1972 cohort 1966–1967 cohort 1961–1962 cohort 1956–1957 cohort 1946–1947 cohort Stacked-up Panel B. Average daily domestic trips 1971–1972 cohort 1966–1967 cohort 1961–1962 cohort 1956–1957 cohort 1946–1947 cohort Stacked-up Notes: These figures show reduced-form effects of outcome variables in credit card data (panel A) and airline data (panel B) around different vaccination eligibility cutoffs (vertical line). The size of the dots corresponds to the number of observations in each bin. The period used for estimating the effects is the first 10–12 days after vaccination became eligible for each cohort.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Goldszmidt, Rafael, Anna Petherick, Eduardo B Andrade, Thomas Hale, Rodrigo Furst, Toby Phillips, and Sarah Jones. 2021. “Protective Behaviors Against COVID-19 by Individual Vaccination Status in 12 Countries During the Pandemic. ” JAMA network open 4 (10): e2131137–e2131137.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Hale, Thomas, Noam Angrist, Rafael Goldszmidt et al. 2021. “A global panel database of pandemic policies (Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker).” Nature Human Behaviour 5 (4): 529–538.
- Hunter, Paul R, and Julii Suzanne Brainard. 2021. “Estimating the effectiveness of the Pfizer COVID-19 BNT162b2 vaccine after a single dose. A reanalysis of a study of ‘real-world’ vaccination outcomes from Israel.” Medrxiv.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Imbens, Guido W, and Joshua D Angrist. 1994. “Identification and estimation of local average treatment effects.” Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society 467–475.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Independent SAGE. 2021. “Maintaining adherence to protective behaviours during vaccination rollout: Summary and recommendations.” The Independent SAGE Report 30 9.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Ioannidis, John. 2021. “Benefit of COVID-19 Vaccination Accounting for Potential Risk Compensation.” Available at SSRN 3773950.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Jones, Sarah P. 2020. “Imperial college london big data analytical unit and yougov plc. 2020.” Imperial College London YouGov Covid Data Hub, v1. 0, YouGov Plc.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Khan, Hibah, Ms Era Dabla-Norris, Frederico Lima, and Alexandre Sollaci. 2021. Who Doesnt Want to be Vaccinated? Determinants of Vaccine Hesitancy During COVID-19. International Monetary Fund.
Kim, Hyuncheol Bryant, and Sun-mi Lee. 2017. “When public health intervention is not successful: Cost sharing, crowd-out, and selection in Korea’s National Cancer Screening Program.” Journal of Health Economics 53 100–116.
Kim, Taehoon. 2021. “Age culture, school-entry cutoff, and the choices of birth month and school-entry timing in South Korea.” Journal of Demographic Economics 87 (1): 33–65.
- Kowalski, Amanda E. 2022. “Behavior within a Clinical Trial and Implications for Mammography Guidelines.” Kremer, Michael. 1996. “Integrating behavioral choice into epidemiological models of AIDS.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 111 (2): 549–573.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Kreps, SE, and DL Kriner. 2021. “Factors influencing Covid-19 vaccine acceptance across subgroups in the United States: Evidence from a conjoint experiment.” Vaccine 39 (24): 3250–3258.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Lee, David S, and Thomas Lemieux. 2010. “Regression discontinuity designs in economics.” Journal of Economic Literature 48 (2): 281–355.
- Lee, Jongkwan, and Hee-Seung Yang. 2021. “Pandemic and employment: Evidence from COVID-19 in South Korea.” Working Paper at http://www.kapf.or. kr.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Lee, Minjung, and Myoungsoon You. 2020. “Psychological and behavioral responses in South Korea during the early stages of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).” International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17 (9): 2977.
McCrary, Justin. 2008. “Manipulation of the running variable in the regression discontinuity design: A density test.” Journal of Econometrics 142 (2): 698–714.
- Mukherjee, Abhiroop, George Panayotov, Rik Sen, Harsha Dutta, and Pulak Ghosh. 2022. “Measuring vaccine effectiveness from limited public health datasets: Framework and estimates from Indias second COVID wave.” Science advances 8 (18): eabn4274.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Nasreen, Sharifa, Hannah Chung, Siyi He et al. 2022. “Effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe outcomes with variants of concern in Ontario.” Nature Microbiology 7 (3): 379–385.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Neumann-Böhme, Sebastian, Nirosha Elsem Varghese, Iryna Sabat, Pedro Pita Barros, Werner Brouwer, Job van Exel, Jonas Schreyögg, and Tom Stargardt. 2020. “Once we have it, will we use it? A European survey on willingness to be vaccinated against COVID-19.” Peltzman, Sam. 1975. “The effects of automobile safety regulation.” Journal of Political Economy 83 (4): 677–725.
- Reiter, Paul L, Michael L Pennell, and Mira L Katz. 2020. “Acceptability of a COVID-19 vaccine among adults in the United States: How many people would get vaccinated?” Vaccine 38 (42): 6500–6507.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Rubin, G James, Julii Brainard, Paul Hunter, and Susan Michie. 2021. “Are people letting down their guard too soon after covid-19 vaccination?” British Medical Journal.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Schwarzinger, Michaël, Verity Watson, Pierre Arwidson, François Alla, and Stéphane Luchini. 2021. “COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy in a representative working-age population in France: a survey experiment based on vaccine characteristics. ” The Lancet Public Health 6 (4): e210–e221.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- SPI-B. 2021. “SPI-B: Possible impact of the COVID-19 vaccination programme on adherence to rules and guidance about personal protective behaviours aimed at preventing spread of the virus.” Task Force for Tackling COVID-19, Ministry of Foreign Affairs. 2020. “All about Korea’s Response to COVID-19.” https://www.mofa.go.kr/eng/brd/m_22591/ view.do?seq=35&srchFr=&%3BsrchTo=&%3BsrchTp=&%3Bmulti_itm_ seq=0&%3Bitm_seq_1=0&%3Bitm_seq_2=0&%3Bcompany_cd=&% 3Bcompany_nm=&page=1&titleNm=.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Thunstrom, L, M Ashworth, D Finnoff, and S Newbold. 2021. “Hesitancy towards a COVID-19 vaccine and prospects for herd immunity. 2020.” Available at SSRN 3593098.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Wright, Liam, Andrew Steptoe, Hei Wan Mak, and Daisy Fancourt. 2021. “Do people reduce compliance with COVID-19 guidelines following vaccination? A longitudinal analysis of matched UK adults.” MedRxiv.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Yamamura, Eiji, Youki Kosaka, Yoshiro Tsutsui, and Fumio Ohtake. 2022. “Gender differences of the effect of vaccination on perceptions of COVID-19 and mental health in Japan.” arXiv preprint arXiv:2203.07663.