- _____ (1999), Preferential trading and welfare: The small-union case revisited. Mimeo, Univ. Maryland.
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- _____ (2004b), Evaluación Acuerdo Comercial Chile – México. Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores, Chile.
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- 1. Static welfare effects of a PTA: The simplest case Given an initial situation where there are tariffs on imports,35 a PTA reduces one source of economic distortion by decreasing tariffs among members, but increases another distortion, the geographic disparity in tariffs (discrimination against suppliers from different sources). Thus, a PTA can create trade, improving welfare by shifting production from high-cost domestic producer to lower-cost PTA partner. But it can divert trade, reducing welfare by shifting the source of supply from the lowest-cost supplier (a non-member) to a favored PTA member. The simplest way to introduce these concepts is a model with infinite supply elasticity and zero demand elasticity, as is Figure 1, taken from Panagariya’s (2000). Let us assume that there are three regions: country A, country B and region C (the rest of the world).36 Countries A and B engage in a PTA. The analysis is carried out from A’s viewpoint.
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- • Publications available for sale should be ordered from the Distribution Unit, ECLAC, Casilla 179-D, Santiago, Chile, Fax (562) 210 2069, E-mail: publications@eclac.cl. These publications are also available on the Internet: http://www.eclac.org/ and http://www.cepal.org Name: ............................................................................................................................................ Activity:......................................................................................................................................... Address:......................................................................................................................................... Postal code, city, country:.............................................................................................................. Tel.:...................................Fax: ........................ E.mail address: ................................................... ZZZ
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Adams, Richard, Philippa Dee, Jyothi Galo & Greg McGuire (2003), The trade and investment effects of Preferential Trading Arrangements – Old and new evidence. Australia Productivity Commission Staff Working Paper, Canberra, May.
- Agama, Laurie-Ann & Christine A. McDaniel (2002), The NAFTA Preference and U.S.-Mexico Trade. U.S. International Trade Commission. October Armington, P.S. (1969), The geographic pattern of trade and the effects of price changes. International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, 16(2).
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Baier, S.L. & J. H. Bergstrand (2001), The growth of world trade: Tariffs, transport costs and income similarity. Journal of International Economics, 53(1).
Balistreri, Edward J. & Russell H Hilberry (2004), Trade frictions and welfare in the gravity model: How much of the iceberg melts?. Colorado School of Mines. August.
Berg, Andrew & Anne Krueger (2003), trade, growth and poverty: A selective survey. International Monetary Fund Working Paper WP/03/30. February.
Berrentoni, Daniel y MartÃÂn Cicowiez (2005), El acuerdo de libre comercio Mercosur-Comunidad Andina de Naciones: una evaluación cuantitativa. CEPAL, Serie Estudios EstadÃÂsticos y Prospectivos. No 33, Santiago de Chile.
- Bhagwati, Krishna and Panagariya (1999), Trading blocs: Alternative approaches to analyzing Preferential Trade Agreements. The MIT Press, Cambridge and London.
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- C 0.0247 0.0410 0.6022 0.5495 DUM_BOL-0.2281 0.0697-3.2713 0.0019 DUM_MEX 0.0885 0.0713 1.2406 0.2200 DUM_OUTLIERS 0.2696 0.0166 16.2134 0.0000 R-squared 0.8372 Mean dependent var-0.0017 Adjusted R-squared 0.8283 S.D. dependent var 0.5279 S.E. of regression 0.2187 Akaike info criterion-2.9743 Sum squared resid 2.6318 Schwartz criterion-2.8334 Log likelihood 8.0236 F-statistic 94.2596 Durbin-Watson stat 1.5436 Prob(F-statistic) 0.0000 Source: Author estimates, over Comtrade data, for products included in the first digit 0 of SITC Rev.2. CEPAL − SERIE Comercio internacional N 57 55 Table 5 DATA DISCREPANCY FOR CHILEAN EXPORTS 1986 – 2001 LS // Dependent Variable is LN_MX_CHL Sample: 1 64 Included observations: 59 Excluded observations: 5 Variable Coefficient Std. Error T-Statistic Prob.
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- C 0.0440 0.0977 0.4507 0.6539 DUM_ARG-0.0933 0.1732-0.5389 0.5921 DUM_MEX-0.0926 0.1692-0.5472 0.5864 R-squared 0.0079 Mean dependent var-0.0017 Adjusted R-squared-0.0276 S.D. dependent var 0.5279 S.E. of regression 0.5351 Akaike info criterion-1.2010 Sum squared resid 16.0357 Schwartz criterion-1.0954 Log likelihood-45.2872 F-statistic 0.2225 Durbin-Watson stat 1.8462 Prob(F-statistic) 0.8012 Source: Author estimates, over Comtrade data, for products included in the first digit 0 of SITC Rev.2. Table 2 DATA DISCREPANCY FOR CHILEAN EXPORTS 1986 - 2001 LS // Dependent Variable is LN_MX_CHL Sample: 1 64 Included observations: 59 Excluded observations: 5 Variable Coefficient Std. Error T-Statistic Prob.
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- C 0.1177 0.0968 1.2158 0.2292 DUM_BOL-0.3031 0.1658-1.8285 0.0728 DUM_MEX-0.1662 0.1658-1.0028 0.3203 R-squared 0.0589 Mean dependent var-0.0017 Adjusted R-squared 0.0253 S.D. dependent var 0.5279 S.E. of regression 0.5212 Akaike info criterion-1.2538 Sum squared resid 15.2108 Schwartz criterion-1.1482 Log likelihood-43.7291 F-statistic 1.7532 Durbin-Watson stat 1.9423 Prob(F-statistic) 0.1826 Source: Author estimates, over Comtrade data, for products included in the first digit 0 of SITC Rev.2. Table 4 DATA DISCREPANCY FOR CHILEAN EXPORTS 1986 – 2001 LS // Dependent Variable is LN_MX_CHL Sample: 1 64 Included observations: 59 Excluded observations: 5 Variable Coefficient Std. Error T-Statistic Prob.
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- C 1 610.4160 453.1943 3.5535 0.0005 LN_CHL_GDP_PC 16.7297 5.7112 2.9293 0.0037 LN_DISTKM-1.3273 0.2995-4.4310 0.0000 LN_OTH_GDP_PC 0.5091 0.1567 3.2487 0.0013 YEAR-0.8708 0.2495-3.4898 0.0006 AR(1) 0.5488 0.0601 9.1386 0.0000 R-squared 0.4316 Mean dependent var-0.1402 Adjusted R-squared 0.4196 S.D. dependent var 2.7388 S.E. of regression 2.0866 Akaike info criterion 1.4954 Sum squared resid 1 031.8510 Schwartz criterion 1.5817 Log likelihood-520.4970 F-statistic 35.9898 Durbin-Watson stat 2.0922 Prob(F-statistic) 0.0000 Source: Author estimates, over Comtrade data, for products included in the second digit (00) of SITC Rev.2. CEPAL − SERIE Comercio internacional N 57 59 Table 9 ESTIMATE OF A SIMPLIFIED GRAVITY MODEL FOR CHILE SITC Rev2 01 LS // Dependent Variable is LN_TONS Sample: 3 998 Included observations: 410 Excluded observations: 586 after adjusting endpoints Convergence achieved after 3 iterations Variable Coefficient Std. Error T-Statistic Prob.
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- C 10.5638 6.5063 1.6236 0.1052 LN_CHL_GDP_PC 0.4571 0.7933 0.5762 0.5648 LN_DISTKM-1.0835 0.2071-5.2313 0.0000 LN_OTH_GDP_PC-0.2305 0.1304-1.7680 0.0778 AR(1) 0.3479 0.0444 7.8318 0.0000 R-squared 0.2595 Mean dependent var 2.4644 Adjusted R-squared 0.2521 S.D. dependent var 3.0878 S.E. of regression 2.6703 Akaike info criterion 1.9765 Sum squared resid 2 887.8170 Schwartz criterion 2.0255 Log likelihood-981.9451 F-statistic 35.4743 Durbin-Watson stat 2.1385 Prob(F-statistic) 0.0000 Source: Author estimates, over Comtrade data, for products included in the second digit (01) of SITC Rev.2. Table 10 ESTIMATE OF A SIMPLIFIED GRAVITY MODEL FOR CHILE SITC Rev2 02 LS // Dependent Variable is LN_TONS Sample: 3 1106 Included observations: 591 Excluded observations: 513 after adjusting endpoints Convergence achieved after 3 iterations Variable Coefficient Std. Error T-Statistic Prob.
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- C 23.3671 4.5524 5.1329 0.0000 LN_CHL_GDP_PC-1.9481 0.5498-3.5433 0.0005 LN_DISTKM-1.3609 0.2725-4.9939 0.0000 LN_OTH_GDP_PC 0.4453 0.1838 2.4226 0.0160 R-squared 0.1099 Mean dependent var 0.1829 Adjusted R-squared 0.1017 S.D. dependent var 2.7201 S.E. of regression 2.5781 Akaike info criterion 1.9062 Sum squared resid 2 166.8350 Schwartz criterion 1.9522 Log likelihood-778.7682 F-statistic 13.4136 Durbin-Watson stat 0.7996 Prob(F-statistic) 0.0000 Source: Author estimates, over Comtrade data, for products included in the second digit (00) of SITC Rev.2. Table 8 ESTIMATE OF A SIMPLIFIED GRAVITY MODEL FOR CHILE SITC Rev2 00 LS // Dependent Variable is LN_TONS Sample: 3 506 Included observations: 243 Excluded observations: 261 after adjusting endpoints Convergence achieved after 6 iterations Variable Coefficient Std. Error T-Statistic Prob.
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- C 7.3536 4.5169 1.6280 0.1040 LN_CHL_GDP_PC 0.6485 0.5295 1.2246 0.2212 LN_DISTKM-0.5724 0.1707-3.3534 0.0008 LN_OTH_GDP_PC-0.6774 0.0845-8.0187 0.0000 AR(1) 0.1849 0.0374 4.9427 0.0000 R-squared 0.2116 Mean dependent var 1.1806 Adjusted R-squared 0.2067 S.D. dependent var 2.9442 S.E. of regression 2.6223 Akaike info criterion 1.9357 Sum squared resid 4 483.4280 Schwartz criterion 1.9698 Log likelihood-1 563.1130 F-statistic 43.7363 Durbin-Watson stat 2.1566 Prob(F-statistic) 0.0000 Source: Author estimates, over Comtrade data, for products included in the second digit (03) of SITC Rev.2. Table 12 ESTIMATE OF A SIMPLIFIED GRAVITY MODEL FOR CHILE SITC Rev2 04 LS // Dependent Variable is LN_TONS Sample: 3 2341 Included observations: 1087 Excluded observations: 1252 after adjusting endpoints Convergence achieved after 3 iterations Variable Coefficient Std. Error T-Statistic Prob.
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- C 7.5207 4.2128 1.7852 0.0745 LN_CHL_GDP_PC 0.9640 0.4930 1.9555 0.0508 LN_DISTKM-1.7603 0.1773-9.9255 0.0000 LN_OTH_GDP_PC 0.4052 0.0937 4.3243 0.0000 AR(1) 0.1462 0.0322 4.5369 0.0000 R-squared 0.1176 Mean dependent var 2.9536 Adjusted R-squared 0.1143 S.D. dependent var 3.4944 S.E. of regression 3.2886 Akaike info criterion 2.3855 Sum squared resid 11 701.6800 Schwartz criterion 2.4085 Log likelihood-2 833.9110 F-statistic 36.0508 Durbin-Watson stat 1.7943 Prob(F-statistic) 0.0000 Source: Author estimates, over Comtrade data, for products included in the second digit (04) of SITC Rev.2. CEPAL − SERIE Comercio internacional N 57 61 Table 13 ESTIMATE OF A SIMPLIFIED GRAVITY MODEL FOR CHILE SITC Rev2 04 LS // Dependent Variable is LN_TONS Sample: 3 2341 Included observations: 1087 Excluded observations: 1252 after adjusting endpoints Convergence achieved after 4 iterations Variable Coefficient Std. Error T-Statistic Prob.
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- C-0.0562 0.0442-1.2724 0.2086 DUM_ARG 0.0069 0.0777 0.0887 0.9296 DUM_MEX 0.1716 0.0776 2.2110 0.0312 DUM_OUTLIERS 0.2733 0.0182 15.0191 0.0000 R-squared 0.8055 Mean dependent var-0.0017 Adjusted R-squared 0.7949 S.D. dependent var 0.5279 S.E. of regression 0.2391 Akaike info criterion-2.7966 Sum squared resid 3.1434 Schwartz criterion-2.6558 Log likelihood 2.7831 F-statistic 75.9340 Durbin-Watson stat 1.3336 Prob(F-statistic) 0.0000 Source: Author estimates, over Comtrade data, for products included in the first digit 0 of SITC Rev.2. 56 Due to Chile lack of reporting to Comtrade, 2002 and 2003 could not be included in the database. The commodity classification used was SITC Rev. 2, as the HS spans a significantly shorter period.
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- C-0.1197 0.0948-1.2629 0.2119 DUM_BRA 0.3932 0.1623 2.4220 0.0187 DUM_MEX 0.0711 0.1623 0.4382 0.6629 R-squared 0.0973 Mean dependent var-0.0017 Adjusted R-squared 0.0651 S.D. dependent var 0.5279 S.E. of regression 0.5104 Akaike info criterion-1.2955 Sum squared resid 14.5905 Schwartz criterion-1.1898 Log likelihood-42.5009 F-statistic 3.0181 Durbin-Watson stat 2.0288 Prob(F-statistic) 0.0569 Source: Author estimates, over Comtrade data, for products included in the first digit 0 of SITC Rev.2. Table 6 DATA DISCREPANCY FOR CHILEAN EXPORTS 1986 – 2001 LS // Dependent Variable is LN_MX_CHL Sample: 1 64 Included observations: 59 Excluded observations: 5 Variable Coefficient Std. Error T-Statistic Prob.
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Casacuberta, C., G. Fachola & N. Gandelman (2004), The impact of trade liberalization on employment, capital, and productivity dynamics: Evidence from the Uruguyan manufacturing sector. Inter-American Development Bank, Rsearch Network Working Paper R-479. February.
- CEPAL − SERIE Comercio internacional N 57 35 Levinson, James (1996), Firm heterogeneity, jobs and international trade: Evidence from Chile. NBER Working Paper 5808, October.
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- CEPAL − SERIE Comercio internacional N 57 53 As an illustration of a data discrepancy analysis, consider the results of applying (3-3) for Chilean exports to Mexico and other Latin American countries, for 1986-2001,56 as provided in Table 1 to Table 6. The constant (C ) is used to isolate the general effect of a potential reporting bias by Chile, while dummies are used to isolate potential reporting biases of specific partners.
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CEPAL, Haar, Jerry, Catherine Leroy-Beltrán & Oscar Beltrán (2004), Efectos del TLCAN en la competitividad de la pequeña empresa en México. Comercio Exterior, v.54, No 6, June Head, Keith & Thierry Mayer (2002), Ilusory border effects: Distance mismeasurement inflates estimates of home bias in trade. CEPII Working Paper N 2002-01. January.
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- Ex-post evaluation of the employment effects of a Preferential Trade Agreement: methodological issues, illustrated with a reference... 54 Table 3 DATA DISCREPANCY FOR CHILEAN EXPORTS 1986 – 2001 LS // Dependent Variable is LN_MX_CHL Sample: 1 64 Included observations: 59 Excluded observations: 5 Variable Coefficient Std. Error T-Statistic Prob.
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- The case of large countries PTAs is not reviewed here, as most Latin American economies, and certainly Chile, can be classified as being close to the small country case. Suffice to say that, for large countries, PTA trade diversion may well be welfare increasing, due to the improvement in their terms-of-trade.45 45 Cf. Panagariya (2000), pp. 302 ff.
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- ZZZ 52 La deslocalización de funciones no esenciales de las empresas: Oportunidades para exportar servicios. El caso de Chile, JoaquÃÂn Piña (LC/L.2390-P), N de venta: S.05.II.G.133 (US$ 10.00), septiembre del 2005. ZZZ 53 Implicaciones del Término del Acuerdo sobre los Textiles y el Vestuario (ATV) para el Norte de América Latina, Mikio Kuwayama y Martha Cordero, (LC/L.2399-P), N de venta S.05.II.G.145 (US$ 10.00), octubre del 2005.
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- ZZZ 54 Implementing Trade Policy in Latin America: The Cases of Chile and Mexico, Sebastián Sáez, (LC/L.2406-P), N de venta: E.05.II.G.153 (US$ 10.00), September 2005. ZZZ 55 Trade Policy Making in Latin America: A Compared Análisis, Sebastián Sáez, (LC/L.2410-P), N de venta: E.05.II.G.156 (US$ 10.00), November 2005. ZZZ 56 Export Promoting Policies in CARICOM Main issues, effects and implications, Esteban Pérez, (LC/L.2424-P), N de venta: E.05.II.G.171 (US$ 10.00), November 2005. ZZZ 57 Ex-post evaluation of the Employment effects of a PTA: Methodological Issues, Illustrated with a Reference to Chile, Gabriel Gutiérrez, (LC/L.2439-P), N de venta: E.05.II.G.185 (US$ 10.00), December 2005. ZZZ • Readers wishing to obtain the above publications can do so by writing to the following address: ECLAC, Division of International Trade and Integration, Casilla 179-D, Santiago, Chile.
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