Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

Aguiar, M., Gopinath, G., 2006. Defaultable debt, interest rates and the current account. Journal of International Economics 69(1), 64–83.

Arellano, C., 2008. Default risk and income fluctuations in emerging economies. American Economic Review 98(3), 690–712.

Arellano, C., Kocherlakota, N.R., 2008. Internal debt crises and sovereign defaults. NBER Working Paper Series No. 13794.

Arora, V., Cerisola, M., 2001. How does US monetary policy influence sovereign spreads in emerging markets? IMF Staff Papers 48(3), 474–498.

Artera, C., Hale, G., 2008. Sovereign debt crises and credit to the private sector. Journal of International Economics 74, 53–69.

Börsch-Supan, A., Hajivassiliou, V.A., 1993. Smooth unbiased multivariate probability simulators for maximum likelihood estimation of limited dependent variable models. Journal of Econometrics 58(3), 347–368.

Babecký, J., Havranek, T., Mateju, J., Rusnak, M., Smidkova, K., Vasicek, B., 2012. Banking, debt, and currency crises: Early warning indicators for developed countries. ECB Working Paper No. 1485.

Bolton, P., Jeanne, O., 2011. Sovereign default risk and bank fragility in financially integrated economies. IMF Economic Review 59(2), 162–194.

Bordo, M. D., Meissner, C.M., 2005. The role of foreign currency debt in financial crises: 1880–1913 vs. 1972–1997. NBER Working Paper Series No. 11897.

Borensztein, E., Panizza, U., 2009. The costs of sovereign default. IMF Staff Papers 56(4), 683–741.

Bulow, J., Rogoff, K., 1989. A constant recontracting model of sovereign debt. Journal of Political Economy 96, 155–178.

Calvo, G.A, Leiderman, L., Reinhart, C.M., 1993. Capital inflows and real exchange rate appreciation in Latin America: The role of external factors. IMF Staff Papers 40.

Calvo, G.A., 1988. Servicing the public debt: the role of expectations. The American Economic Review 78(4), 647–661.

Candelon, B., Palm, F.C., 2010. Banking and debt crises in Europe: The dangerous liaisons? CESifo Working Paper No. 3001.

Cappellari, L., Jenkins, S., 2003. Multivariate probit regression using simulated maximum likelihood. The Stata Journal 3, 278–294.

Caprio, G, Klingebiel, D., Laeven, L., Noguera, G., 2005. Appendix: Banking crisis database. In Honohan, P., Laeven, L. (eds.). Systemic Financial Crises: Containment and Resolution. Cambridge University Press.

Chamberlain, G., 1980. Analysis of covariance with qualitative data. Review of Economic Studies 47, 225–238.

Chinn, M.D., Ito, H., 2006. What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions. Journal of Development Economics 81, 163–192.

Citron, J., Nickelsburg, G., 1987. Country risk and political instability. Journal of Development Economics 25(2), 385-392.

Cole, H.L., Kehoe, T.J., 2000. Self-fulfilling debt crises. The Review of Economic Studies 67(1), 91–116.

Cottarelli, C., Forni, L., Gottschalk, J., Mauro, P., 2010. Default in today's advanced economies: Unnecessary, undesirable, and unlikely. IMF Staff Position Note 10/12.

Cuadra, G., Sapriza, H., 2008. Sovereign default, interest rates and political uncertainty in emerging markets. Journal of International Economics 76, 78–88.

Das, U.S., Papaioannou, M.G., Trebesch, C. 2012. Sovereign debt restructurings 1950– 2010: Literature survey, data, and stylized facts. IMF Working Paper No. 12/203.

De Haan, J., Siermann C.L.J, Van Lubek, E., 1997. Political instability and country risk: new evidence, Applied Economics Letters 4(11), 703–707.

Demirgüç-Kunt, A., Detragiache E., 1997. The determinants of banking crises: Evidence from developing and developed countries. IMF Working Paper No. 97/106.

Detragiache, E., 1996. Rational liquidity crises in sovereign debt market: in search of a theory. IMF Staff Papers 43(3), 545–570.

Detragiache, E., Spilimbergo, A., 2001. Crises and liquidity: evidence and interpretation. IMF Working Paper No. 2/181.

Diamond, D.W., Dybvig, P.H., 1983. Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity. Journal of Political Economy 91(5), 401–419.

Dreher, A., Herz, B., Karb, V., 2006. Is there a causal link between currency and debt crises? International Journal of Finance and Economics 11, 305–325.

Eaton, J., Gersovitz, M., 1981. Debt with potential repudiation: theoretical and empirical analysis. Review of Economic Studies 48, 289–309.

Eaton, J., Gersovitz, M., Stiglitz, J.E., 1986. The pure theory of country risk. European Economic Review 30, 481–513.

Eichengreen, B., Hausmann, R., 1999. Exchange rates and financial fragility. New Challenges for Monetary Policy, 329–368. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

Eichengreen, B., Mody, A., 1998. Interest rates in the North and capital flows to the South: Is there a missing link? International Finance 1, 35–57.

Eichengreen, B., Rose, A.K., Wyplosz, C., 1996. Contagious currency crises. Centre for Economic Policy Research Discussion Paper No. 1453.

Eijffinger, S.C.W., Karataş, B., 2012. Currency crises and monetary policy: A study on advanced and emerging economies. Journal of International Money and Finance 31, 948–74.

Enderlein, H., Trebesch, C., Von Daniels, L., 2012. Sovereign debt disputes: A database on government coerciveness during debt crises. Journal of International Money and Finance 31, 250–266.

Foley‐Fisher, N., Guimaraes, B., 2013. US real interest rates and default risk in emerging economies. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. 45(5), 967–975.

Gennaioli, N., Martin, A., Rossi, S., 2014. Sovereign defaults, domestic banks and financial institutions. Journal of Finance 69(2), 819–866.

Grossman, H.I., Van Huyck, J.B., 1988. Sovereign debt as a contingent claim: Excusable default, repudiation and reputation. American Economic Review 78, 1088–1097.

Herz, B., Tong, H., 2008. Debt and currency crises – complements or substitutes? Review of International Economics 16(5), 955–970.

Im, K.S., Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y., 2003. Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics 115, 53–74.

Jahjah, S., Montiel, P., 2003. Exchange rate policy and debt crises in emerging economies. IMF Working Paper No. 3/60.

Kamin, S.B., Von Kleist, K. 1999. The evolution and determinants of emerging market credit spreads in the 1990s. International Finance Discussion Paper No. 653.

Kaminsky, G.L., 2006. Currency crises: are they all the same? Journal of International Money and Finance 25, 503–527.

Kaminsky, G.L., Reinhart, C., 1999. The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-ofpayments problems. American Economic Review 89(3), 473–500.

King, G., Zeng, L., 2001. Logistic regression in rare events data. Political Analysis 9, 137– 163.

Kohlscheen, E., 2007. Why are there serial defaulters? Evidence from constitutions. Journal of Law and Economics 50(4), 713–730.

Kraay, A., 2003. Do high interest rates defend currencies during speculative attacks? Journal of International Economics 59, 297–321.

Laeven, L.,Valencia, F., 2012. Systemic banking crises database: An update. IMF Working Paper No. 163.

Lestano, Jacobs, J.P.A.M., Kuper, G.H., 2003. Indicators of financial crises do work! An early-warning system for six Asian countries. CCSO Working Papers Vol. 200313. University of Groningen.

Levy-Yeyati, E., Panizza, U., 2011. The elusive costs of sovereign defaults. Journal of Development Economics 94, 95–105.

Manasse, P., Roubini, N., 2009. "Rules of thumb" for sovereign debt crises. Journal of International Economics 78, 192–205.

Manasse, P., Roubini, N., Schimmelpfenning, A., 2003. Predicting sovereign debt crises. IMF Working Paper No. 03/221.

Norton, E. C., Wang, H., Ai, C., 2004. Computing interaction effects and standard errors in logit and probit models. The Stata Journal 4(2), 154–167.

Obstfeld, M., 1994. The logic of currency crises. Cahiers Economiques et Monétaires Bank of France 43, 189–213.

Panizza, U., Sturzenegger, F., Zettelmeyer, J., 2009. The economics and law of sovereign debt and default. Journal of Economic Literature. 47(3), 651–698.

Reinhart, C. M., 2002. Default, currency crises and sovereign credit ratings. NBER Working Paper Series No. 8738.

Reinhart, C., Rogoff, K., 2009. This time is different: Eight centuries of financial folly. Princeton University Press, New Jersey.

Reinhart, C., Rogoff, K., 2011. From financial crash to debt crisis. American Economic Review 101, 1676–1706.

Reinhart, C., Rogoff, K., 2013. Financial and sovereign debt crises: some lessons learned and those forgotten. IMF Working Paper No. 13/226.

Rochet, J. C., 2006. Optimal sovereign debt: An analytical approach. Inter-American Development Bank Research Department Working Paper No. 573.

Saiegh, S.M., 2009. Coalition governments and sovereign debt crises. Economics and Politics 21(2), 232–254.

Siklos, P.L., 2011. Central bank transparency: another look. Applied Economics Letters 18(10), 929–933.

Soto, M., 2009. System GMM estimation with a small sample. Barcelona Economics Working Paper No. 395.

Tomz, M., Wright, M.L.J., 2007. Do countries default in bad times? Journal of the European Economic Association 5(2-3), 352–360.

Uribe, M., Yue, V.Z., 2006. Country spreads and emerging countries: Who drives whom? Journal of International Economics 69, 6–36.

Velasco, A., 1987. Financial crises and balance of payments crises: A simple model of the southern corn experience. Journal of Development Economics, 27.

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper