- ̂2 = ??∆−1/2 ?̅ (B4) To decide whether a given auxiliary regressor is a robust determinant of the outcome of interest, Magnus, Powell, and Prüfer (2010) suggest an absolute value of the t-ratio greater than 1 for a variable to qualify as robust. This choice is motivated by the fact that including a given auxiliary regressor variable increases the model fit (as measured by the adjusted R2 ) and the precision of the estimators of focus regressors (measured by a lower MSE) if and only if the t-ratio of the additional auxiliary regressor is in absolute value greater than 1.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Aaronson, D., Rissman, E.R. and Sullivan, D.G., 2004. Can sectoral reallocation explain the jobless recovery?. Economic Perspectives-Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, 28, pp. 36-49.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Ahir, Hites, Bloom, N., and Furceri, D., 2018. “World Uncertainty Index,” Stanford, mimeo.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Aizenman, J., and Pasricha, G. K., 2010. Selective swap arrangements and the global financial crisis: Analysis and interpretation. International Review of Economics & Finance, 19(3), pp. 353-365.
Alesina, A., Spolaore, E., and Wacziarg, R., 2005. “Trade, Growth and the Size of Countries,” Handbook of Economic Growth, ed. by P. Aghion, and S. Durlauf, 1 (23), pp. 1499-1542. Elsevier.
- Alesina, A.F., Furceri, D., Ostry, J.D., Papageorgiou, C. and Quinn, D.P., 2020a. “Structural Reforms and Elections: Evidence from a World-Wide New Dataset (No. w26720).” National Bureau of Economic Research.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Artha, I. K. D. S., and de Haan, J., 2011. Labor market flexibility and the impact of the financial crisis. Kyklos, 64(2), pp. 213-230.
Babecký, J., Havránek, T., Matějů, J., Rusnák, M., Šmídková, K., and Vašíček, B., 2013. Leading indicators of crisis incidence: Evidence from developed countries. Journal of International Money and Finance, 35, pp. 1-19.
- Baek, I. and Bouzinov, M., 2020. Does democratic progress deter terrorist incidents? European Journal of Political Economy, pp. 101951.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Baker, Scott R., Farrokhnia, R.A., Meyer, S., Pagel, M., and Yannelis, C., 2020. “How Does Household Spending Respond to an Epidemic? Consumption during the 2020 COVID-19 Pandemic.” NBER Working Paper 26949, National Bureau of Economic Research.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Bayer, C., Born, B., Luetticke, R., and Müller, G. J., 2020. The Coronavirus Stimulus Package: How large is the transfer multiplier? CEPR Discussion Papers 14600, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
Beck, T. and Demirguc-Kunt, A., 2009. Financial institutions and markets across countries and over time-data and analysis. The World Bank.
Béland, L.P., Brodeur, A. and Wright, T., 2020. The short-term economic consequences of Covid-19: exposure to disease, remote work and government response.
Benmelech Efraim and Nitzan Tzur-Ilan, 2020. “The Determinants of Fiscal and Monetary Policies During the Covid-19 Crisis,” NBER Working Papers 27461.
Berkmen, S. P., Gelos, G., Rennhack, R., and Walsh, J. P., 2012. The global financial crisis: Explaining cross-country differences in the output impact. Journal of International Money and Finance, 31(1), pp. 42-59.
Bernal-Verdugo, Lorenzo E., Furceri, D., and Guillaume, D., 2013. "Banking crises, labor reforms, and unemployment," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, 41(4), pp. 1202-1219.
- Bhagwati, J., 1998. The capital myth: the difference between trade in widgets and dollars.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Bluedorn, J., Aiyar, S., Duval, R., Furceri, D., Garcia-Macia, D., Ji, Y., Malacrino, D., Qu, H., Siminitz, J., and Zdzienicka, A., 2019. "Strengthening the Euro Area; The Role of National Structural Reforms in Building Resilience," IMF Staff Discussion Notes, 2019/005.
Brandao-Marques, L., Gelos, G., Harjes, T., Sahay, R. and Xue, Y., 2020. Monetary policy transmission in emerging markets and developing economies. IMF Working Papers 2020/035, International Monetary Fund.
- Brock, W. A., and Durlauf, S. N., 2001. “What have we learned from a decade of empirical research on growth? Growth empirics and reality,” The World Bank Economic Review, 15(2), pp. 229-272.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Caprio Jr., G., D’Apice, V., Ferri, G., and Puopolo, G. W., 2014. Macro-financial determinants of the great financial crisis: Implications for financial regulation. Journal of Banking & Finance, 44, 114-129.
Caprio, G. and Honohan, P., 2002. Banking policy and macroeconomic stability: An exploration. The World Bank.
- Carvalho, V.M., Hansen, S., Ortiz, A., García, J.R., Rodrigo, T., Mora, S.R., and Ruiz, J., 2020. “Tracking the COVID-19 Crisis with High-Resolution Transaction Data.” CEPR Discussion Paper 14642, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Cecchetti, S. G., King, M., and Yetman, J., 2011. Weathering the financial crisis: good policy or good luck? BIS Working Papers 351, Bank for International Settlements.
- Cepaluni, G., Dorsch, M., and Branyiczki, R., 2020. Political Regimes and Deaths in the Early Stages of the COVID-19 Pandemic. Social Science Research Network 3586767.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Chernozhukov, V., Kasahara, H. and Schrimpf, P., 2020. Mask mandates and other lockdown policies reduced the spread of COVID-19 in the US.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Chronopoulos, D.K., Lukas, M. and Wilson, J.O., 2020. Consumer Spending Responses to the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Assessment of Great Britain. Social Science Research Network 3586723.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Claessens, S., Tong, H., and Wei, S. J., 2012. From the financial crisis to the real economy: Using firm-level data to identify transmission channels. Journal of International Economics, 88(2), pp. 375-387.
Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y. and Weber, M., 2020. The cost of the covid-19 crisis: Lockdowns, macroeconomic expectations, and consumer spending No. w27141. National Bureau of Economic Research.
- Correia, S., Luck, S., and Verner, E., 1918. Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu. Public Health Interventions do not: Evidence from the 1918.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Cuaresma, J. C., and Feldkircher, M., 2012. Drivers of output loss during the 2008–09 crisis: a focus on emerging Europe. Focus on European Economic Integration, 2(12), pp. 46-64.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Deb, P., Furceri, D., Ostry, J. D., and Tawk, N., 2020a. The economic effects of Covid-19 containment measures. IMF Working Paper No. 20/158.
Deb, P., Furceri, D., Ostry, J. D., and Tawk, N., 2020b. The effect of containment measures on the COVID-19 pandemic. IMF Working Paper No. 20/159. 18 Demir, B., and Javorcik, B., 2020. Trade finance matters: evidence from the COVID-19 crisis. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 36(Supplement_1), S397-S408.
Demirguc-Kunt, A., Lokshin, M. and Torre, I., 2020. The sooner, the better: The early economic impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, 9257.
Devereux, J., and Dwyer, G. P., 2016. What determines output losses after banking crises?. Journal of International Money and Finance, 69, pp. 69-94.
Devereux, M. B., Young, E. R., and Yu, C., 2015. A new dilemma: Capital controls and monetary policy in sudden stop economies, No. w21791. National Bureau of Economic Research.
Didier, T., Hevia, C., and Schmukler, S. L., 2012. How resilient and countercyclical were emerging economies during the global financial crisis?. Journal of International Money and Finance, 31(8), pp. 2052-2077.
Duval, R., Furceri, D., and Miethe, J., 2020. Robust political economy correlates of major product and labor market reforms in advanced economies: Evidence from BAMLE for Logit Models. Journal of Applied Econometrics.
Eichhorst, W., Feil, M. T., and Marx, P., 2010. Crisis, what crisis? Patterns of adaptation in European labor markets. Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 61(Supplement), pages 29-64.
Faria-e-Castro, M., 2020. Fiscal policy during a pandemic. FRB St. Louis Working Paper, (2020006) .
Feldkircher, M., 2014. The determinants of vulnerability to the global financial crisis 2008 to 2009: Credit growth and other sources of risk. Journal of international Money and Finance, 43, pp. 19-49.
Fernandez, C., Ley, E., and Steel, M. F., 2001a. Benchmark priors for Bayesian model averaging. Journal of Econometrics, 100(2), pp. 381-427.
- Fernandez, C., Ley, E., and Steel, M. F., 2001b. Model uncertainty in cross‐country growth regressions. Journal of applied Econometrics, 16(5), pp. 563-576.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Foreign Affairs, pp. 7-12. 17 Blanchard, O. J., Faruqee, H., Das, M., Forbes, K. J., and Tesar, L. L., 2010. The initial impact of the crisis on emerging market countries [with comments and discussion]. Brookings papers on economic activity, pp. 263-323.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Fornaro, L. and Wolf, M., 2020. Covid-19 coronavirus and macroeconomic policy. CREI/UPF and University of Vienna Frankel, J.A., 2011. “Are Bilateral Remittances Countercyclical?,” Open Economies Review, 22(1), pp. 1-16.
Frankel, J, and Saravelos, G., 2012. Can leading indicators assess country vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008–09 global financial crisis. Journal of International Economics, 87(2), pp. 216-231.
Frankel, J. A. and Saravelos, G., 2010. Are leading indicators of financial crises useful for assessing country vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008–09 global crisis (No. w16047). National Bureau of Economic Research.
Furceri, D. and Karras, G., 2007. “Country size and business cycle volatility: Scale really matters,” Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 21(4), pp. 424-434.
Furceri, D. and Ostry, J., 2019. Robust determinants of income inequality. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 35(3), pp. 490-517.
- Furceri, D., Celik, S. K., Jalles, J. T., and Koloskova, K., 2020. Recessions and Total Factor Productivity: Evidence from Sectoral data. Economic modelling.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Ghosh, A.R., Ostry, J., and Qureshi, M.S., 2015. “Exchange Rate Management and Crisis Susceptibility: A Reassessment.” IMF Economic Review, 63(1), pp. 238-276. 19 Ghosh, A.R., Ostry, J., and Tsangarides, C.G., 2011. “Exchange Rate Regimes and the Stability of the International Monetary System,” IMF Occasional Paper 270.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Ghosh, A.R., Ostry, J., and Wolf, H., 1997. “Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter?” NBER Working Paper 5874.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Giannone, D., Lenza, M., and Reichlin, L., 2011. “Market freedom and the global recession,” IMF Economic Review, 59(1), pp. 111-135.
- Gopinath, G., 2020. Global liquidity trap requires a big fiscal response. Viewed 10 November 2020, <https://www.ft.com/content/2e1c0555-d65b-48d1-9af3-825d187eec58> Groot, S. P., Möhlmann, J.L., Garretsen, J. H., and de Groot, H. L., 2011. The crisis sensitivity of European countries and regions: stylized facts and spatial heterogeneity. Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, 4(3), pp. 437-456.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Gupta, S., Montenovo, L., Nguyen, T.D., Rojas, F.L., Schmutte, I.M., Simon, K.I., Weinberg, B.A. and Wing, C., 2020. Effects of social distancing policy on labor market outcomes No. w27280. National Bureau of Economic Research.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Hasell, J., 2020. Which countries have protected both health and the economy in the pandemic. Our World in Data, 1.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Ho, T. K., 2010. Looking for a Needle in a Haystack: Revisiting the Cross-Country Causes of the 2008–09 Crisis. Economica.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Ilzetzki, E., Mendoza, E.G. and Végh, C.A., 2013. How big (small?) are fiscal multipliers?. Journal of monetary economics, 60(2), pp. 239-254.
- International Monetary Fund (IMF). 2020. World Economic Outlook: A Long and Difficult Ascent. Washington, DC, October.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Ioannidis, J.P., Axfors, C., and Contopoulos-Ioannidis, D.G., 2020. Population-level COVID-19 mortality risk for non-elderly individuals overall and for non-elderly individuals without underlying diseases in pandemic epicenters. medRxiv.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Jinjarak, Y., Ahmed, R., Nair-Desai, S., Xin, W., and Aizenman, J., 2020. Pandemic shocks and fiscal-monetary policies in the Eurozone: COVID-19 dominance during January-June 2020 No. w27451. National Bureau of Economic Research.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Kavanagh, M. M., and Singh, R., 2020. Democracy, Capacity, and Coercion in Pandemic Response—COVID 19 in Comparative Political Perspective. Journal of Health Politics, Policy and Law.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Kim, J.I. and Ostry, J., 2018. “Boosting Fiscal Space: The Role of GDP-Linked Debt and Longer Maturities,” IMF Discussion Paper 18/04. Forthcoming Economic Policy.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Kopelman, J.L. and Rosen, H.S., 2016. Are Public Sector Jobs Recession-Proof? Were They Ever?. Public Finance Review, 44(3), pp. 370-396.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Kose, M. A., Prasad, E., Rogoff, K., and Wei, S., 2009. Financial globalization: a reappraisal. IMF Staff papers, 56(1), pp. 8-62.
Levchenko, A A., Lewis, L. T., and Tesar, L. L., 2010. The collapse of international trade during the 2008–09 crisis: in search of the smoking gun. IMF Economic review, 58(2), pp. 214253.
Magnus, J. R., Powell, O., and Prüfer, P., 2010. A comparison of two model averaging techniques with an application to growth empirics. Journal of econometrics, 154(2), pp. 139-153.
- Maloney, W. and Taskin, T., 2020. Determinants of social distancing and economic activity during COVID-19: A global view. Policy Research Working Paper Series 9242, The World Bank. 20 McQuade, P. and Schmitz, M., 2017. The great moderation in international capital flows: A global phenomenon?. Journal of International Money and Finance, 73, pp.188-212.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Mitra, S., 2013. Informality, financial development and macroeconomic volatility. Economics Letters, 120(3), pp. 454-457.
Obstfeld, M., Shambaugh, J. C., and Taylor, A. M., 2009. Financial instability, reserves, and central bank swap lines in the panic of 2008. American Economic review, 99(2), pp. 480-86.
- Ostry, J., Ghosh, A.R., Kim, J.I., and Qureshi, M.S., 2010. Fiscal Space. IMF Staff Position Note 2010/11.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Ostry, J., Prati, A., and Spilimbergo, A., 2009. “Structural Reforms and Economic Performance in Advanced and Developing Countries,” IMF Occasional Paper 268.
- Rodrik, D., 1998. Who needs capital-account convertibility?. Essays in international finance, pp. 55-65.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Rose, A. K., 2011. International financial integration and crisis intensity. Macroeconomics Working Paper 23195, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Rose, A. K., and Spiegel, M. M., 2010. Cross‐country causes and consequences of the 2008 crisis: International linkages and American exposure. Pacific Economic Review, 15(3), pp. 340-363.
Rose, A. K., and Spiegel, M. M., 2011. Cross-country causes and consequences of the crisis: An update. European Economic Review, 55(3), pp. 309-324.
- Rose, A. K., and Spiegel, M. M., 2012. Cross-country causes and consequences of the 2008 crisis: early warning. Japan and the World Economy, 24(1), pp. 1-16.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Ruger, J. P., 2005. Democracy and health. Qjm, 98(4), pp. 299-304.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Sala-i-Martin, X., Doppelhofer, G., and Miller, R. I., 2004. Determinants of long-term growth: A Bayesian averaging of classical estimates (BACE) approach. American economic review, pp. 813-835.
- Sen, A. K., 1999. Democracy as a universal value. Journal of democracy, 10(3), pp. 3-17.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Stiglitz, J.E., 2002. Globalization and its Discontents Vol. 500. Norton: New York.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- The CoRisk-Index: A data-mining approach to identify industry-specific risk assessments related to COVID-19 in real-time. arXiv preprint arXiv:2003.12432.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Weill, J. A., Stigler, M., Deschenes, O., and Springborn, M. R., 2020. Social distancing responses to COVID-19 emergency declarations strongly differentiated by income. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117(33), pp. 19658-19660.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Wright, A. L., Sonin, K., Driscoll, J., and Wilson, J., 2020. Poverty and economic dislocation reduce compliance with covid-19 shelter-in-place protocols. University of Chicago, Becker Friedman Institute for Economics Working Paper, 2020-40. 21 FIGURE 1. DISTRIBUTION OF OUTPUT PERFORMANCES (%)—DENSITY PLOTS Panel A. Growth rate for the first semester of 2020 minus the January 2020 IMF Growth Forecast over the corresponding period Panel B. Growth rate for the first semester of 2020 minus growth rate for the first semester of 22 FIGURE 2. OUTPUT PERFORMANCES (%) AND PUBLIC HEALTH Note: Output performance is defined the difference between the observed cumulative real GDP growth in 2020H1 and the cumulative growth that was expected before the onset of the pandemic for the same period—based on the IMF World Economic Outlook 2020 January forecast for 2020H1.