Kalem Kalendar - August 1, 1912

Kalem Kalendar - August 15, 1913

Billy Sunday was an outfielder for the White Sox, the Pirates, and the Phillies from 1883-1890.  He later became an evangelist.  Some books were written about the man and his mission.

Life and Labors of Rev. William A. (Billy) Sunday - 1908

Spectacular Career of Rev. Billy Sunday by Frankenburg - 1913

The Real Billy Sunday by Brown - 1914

"Billy" Sunday, the Man and his Message by Ellis - 1914

The Sun - September 28, 1919 image from Newspapers.com

I was able to attend the most excellent SABR Black Sox Scandal Centennial Symposium last month in Chicago.  I was able to meet researchers that I've corresponded with over the years, met some (new to me) SABR members, and had a blast learning about the teams involved in the scandalous 1919 World Series.

I've been pondering what might have happened if both teams tried their hardest to win the series.  No dumping of games.  I know that there are many baseball simulators on the market.  Years ago I spent some time playing with Strategic Baseball Simulation, a now defunct (but still free) sim.

I figured I should have some sort of method that was consistent.  I decided to use the starting lineups as described in the RetroSheet box scores.  Would a one game simulation work?  10?  100?  I decided on 1,000 games.  A big enough sample size to satisfy me.

I set the lineups and starting pitchers and let the program make in-game changes. 

Executive Summary: Chicago takes the Series in five games straight.

Results:

Game		Team	W	Avg Sim Score	Sim Notes		Real Score	Real Notes
1	visiting	Chicago AL	594	4 (3.995)	Chic leads Series 1-0		1
1	home	Cincy NL	406	3 (2.965)			9	Cincy leads Series 1-0
2	visiting	Chicago AL	559	4 (3.683)	Chic leads Series 2-0		2
2	home	Cincy NL	441	3 (3.011)			4	Cincy leads Series 2-0
3	visiting	Cincy NL	462	4 (4.034)			0	Cincy leads Series 2-1
3	home	Chicago AL	538	4 (4.024)	Chic leads Series 3-0		3
4	visiting	Cincy NL	330	3 (2.990)			2	Cincy leads Series 3-1
4	home	Chicago AL	670	4 (4.322)	Chic leads Series 4-0		0
5	visiting	Cincy NL	377	4 (3.513)			5	Cincy leads Series 4-1
5	home	Chicago AL	623	4 (4.182)	Chic wins Series 5-0		0
6	visiting	Chicago AL					1
6	home	Cincy NL					0	Cincy leads Series 4-2
7	visiting	Chicago AL					4
7	home	Cincy NL					1	Cincy leads Series 4-3
8	visiting	Cincy NL					10	Cincy wins Series 5-3
8	home	Chicago AL					5

I asked Jacob Pomrenke, the All Knowing High Priest the Black Sox Scandal, if he knew of any other simulated the Series.  He responded that Mike Lynch, of Seamheads.com, wrote a book about 10 years ago: It Ain't So: A Might Have Been History of the White Sox in 1919 and Beyond.  Mike used the Out of the Park simulator to cover the Series and beyond.

Jacob also pointed me to Kenn Tomasch, a Phoenix based sports writer who, just yesterday published an APBA simulation that he ran of the 1919 World Series on his personal blog at Kenn.com.

There's one other paper that Jacob pointed me towards.  David Shiner published a paper (a pdf stored at dropbox) using Bill James's Brock2 projection method to show how the Black Sox players would have fared statistically if they had continued playing in MLB. Note that this does not cover the 1919 World Series itself, however.

My notes: I wanted a quick and easy sim.  I might have been able to tweak the SBS data files a bit more, perhaps by not allowing any player that didn't play in a specific game to be played in that game, but this was for fun, not purely hardcore stats.  I did not include cumulative historical stats for any of the games beyond game one.  I did not take into account rest days, travel days, etc.  Each series of simulated games was run as if the players were fresh, using their regular season (1919) stats.  Each 1,000 game run took about 35 seconds to complete.  Much more time getting the data files prepped and then making a results table.

This showed up on Twitter Wednesday:



It kicked off a bit of discussion, mostly around Tim Keefe.  Charlie Bevis wrote an excellent biography of Keefe for the SABR BioProject.

Charlie has some solid sources and citations.  I thought I'd expand that a bit, giving links to the census (and other) records.  I'm presenting these in chronological order.

1860 US Census:
"United States Census, 1860", database with images, FamilySearch (https://familysearch.org/ark:/61903/1:1:MZC8-J6H : 12 December 2017), Tim Keefe in entry for Pat Keefe, 1860.

1865 Massachusetts State Census:
"Massachusetts State Census, 1865", database with images, FamilySearch (https://familysearch.org/ark:/61903/1:1:MQC2-PQH : 1 June 2018), Timo Keef in entry for Patk Keef, 1865.

1870 US Census:
"United States Census, 1870", database with images, FamilySearch(https://familysearch.org/ark:/61903/1:1:MD31-4W4 : 12 June 2019), Timothy Keef in entry for Patrick Keef, 1870.

1880 US Census:
"United States Census, 1880," database with images, FamilySearch (https://familysearch.org/ark:/61903/1:1:MZCP-R54 : 29 August 2017), Timothy Keefe in entry for E O Brown, 1880; citing enumeration district ED 13, sheet 344A, NARA microfilm publication T9 (Washington D.C.: National Archives and Records Administration, n.d), roll 0805; FHL microfilm 1,254,805.

First Major League Game (August 6, 1880):

The Chicago Tribune (Chicago, Illinois) - August 7, 1880 GenealogyBank.com

1889 Marriage:
"Massachusetts Marriages, 1841-1915," database with images, FamilySearch (https://familysearch.org/ark:/61903/1:1:N4SV-723 : 24 May 2018), Timothy J. Keefe and Clara A. Gibson Helm, 19 Aug 1889; citing Worcester, Massachusetts, United States, State Archives, Boston; FHL microfilm 1,415,227.

Last Major League Game (August 15, 1893):

The Chicago Record (Chicago, Illinois) - August 16, 1893 GenealogyBank.com

1900 US Census:
not found in 1900 US Census

1910 US Census:
"United States Census, 1910," database with images, FamilySearch (https://familysearch.org/ark:/61903/1:1:M2V4-7WG : accessed 15 August 2019), Timothy J Keefe, Cambridge Ward 8, Middlesex, Massachusetts, United States; citing enumeration district (ED) ED 771, sheet 6A, family 112, NARA microfilm publication T624 (Washington D.C.: National Archives and Records Administration, 1982), roll 596; FHL microfilm 1,374,609.

1920 US Census:
"United States Census, 1920," database with images, FamilySearch (https://familysearch.org/ark:/61903/1:1:MXBL-47W : accessed 15 August 2019), Timothy J Keefe in household of Kathernie Keefe, Cambridge Ward 8, Middlesex, Massachusetts, United States; citing ED 79, sheet 16A, line 20, family 341, NARA microfilm publication T625 (Washington D.C.: National Archives and Records Administration, 1992), roll 707; FHL microfilm 1,820,707.

1930 US Census:
"United States Census, 1930," database with images, FamilySearch (https://familysearch.org/ark:/61903/1:1:XQGY-GVW : accessed 15 August 2019), Timothy J Keefe, Cambridge, Middlesex, Massachusetts, United States; citing enumeration district (ED) ED 53, sheet 8B, line 66, family 210, NARA microfilm publication T626 (Washington D.C.: National Archives and Records Administration, 2002), roll 916; FHL microfilm 2,340,651.

Obituary:

The Boston Herald (Boston, Massachusetts) - April 24, 1933 GenealogyBank.com

Funeral Notice:

The Boston Herald (Boston, Massachusetts) - April 27, 1933 GenealogyBank.com

Burial:
"Find A Grave Index," database, FamilySearch (https://familysearch.org/ark:/61903/1:1:QVJ1-17SV : 26 July 2019), Timothy John Keefe, 1933; Burial, Cambridge, Middlesex, Massachusetts, United States of America, Cambridge Cemetery; citing record ID 3640, Find a Grave, https://www.findagrave.com.


There are a few more avenues of research to be shown regarding Tim Keefe.  Some background on his wife, Clara Gibson Helm, his sporting goods venture with William Becannon, and city directories galore.  I'll save those for another post.

In the original Twitter conversation I said (referring to the lawsuit between Keefe and Becannon):

Why am I going down this rabbit hole? Because on some level it is part of the real life story of Keefe. He was more than just base ball stats and census records.

Sometimes, though, you need to start with baseball stats and census records.

Google Books has digitized  many copies of Boys' Life, the organ of the Boy Scouts.  I decided to share the covers that featured baseball.  Baseball related covers continue through 2009, but they just didn't have the charm of the early ones.

August 1912

April 1915

April 1926

May 1927

April 1929

May 1931

May 1932

June 1935

May 1937

July 1938

June 1943

April 1952

August 1959

April 1963

April 1965

March 1966

March 1968

March 1969

March 1970

July 1971

September 1971

March 1972

American Sports Publishing Company published many different athletic books.  In the baseball community, they are mostly known for Spalding's Official Base Ball Guide.  I recently became aware of their Spalding's Official Base Ball Record.

From their own descriptions:

No. 1 - Spalding's Official Base Ball Guide -  The leading Base Ball annual of the country, and the official authority of the game.  Contains the official playing rules, with an explanatory index of the rules compiled by Mr. A. G. Spalding; pictures of all the teams in the National, American and minor leagues; review of the season; college Base Ball, and a great deal of interesting information.  Price 10 cents.

No. 1A - Spalding's Official Base Ball Record - Something new in Base Ball.  Contains records of all kinds from the beginning of the National League and official average of all professional organizations for past season.  Illustrated with pictures of leading teams and players.  Price 10 cents.

I've compiled a listing of the online Base Ball Record books that I could find.  It appears that

1908 – Spalding's Official Base Ball Record | View online (Source: Internet Archive)
1909 – Spalding's Official Base Ball Record | View online (Source: Internet Archive)

1910 – Spalding's Official Base Ball Record | View online (Source: Internet Archive)
1911 – Spalding's Official Base Ball Record | View online (Source: Internet Archive)
1912 – Spalding's Official Base Ball Record | View online (Source: Internet Archive)
1913 – Spalding's Official Base Ball Record | View online (Source: Internet Archive)
1914 – Spalding's Official Base Ball Record | View online (Source: Internet Archive)
1915 – Spalding's Official Base Ball Record | View online (Source: Internet Archive)
1916 – Spalding's Official Base Ball Record | View online (Source: Internet Archive)
1917 – Spalding's Official Base Ball Record | View online (Source: Internet Archive)
1918 – Spalding's Official Base Ball Record | View online (Source: Internet Archive)
1919 – Spalding's Official Base Ball Record | View online (Source: Internet Archive)

1920 – Spalding's Official Base Ball Record | View online (Source: Internet Archive)
1921 – Spalding's Official Base Ball Record | View online (Source: Internet Archive)
1922 – Spalding's Official Base Ball Record | View online (Source: Internet Archive)

This list is meant to complement Sean Lahman's index of online baseball guides, and my list of other online baseball guides.

Tonight, October 7, 2016, the Cubs and the Giants play in the National League Division Series in the Windy City. The teams first met 133 years ago, when the White Stockings hosted the new to the league New York Gothams at Lakefront Park.

The Saint Paul Daily Globe - May 16, 1883 from Chronicling America

Different papers give different bits of information.  Two thousand turned out to see the game.

The Rockford Gazette - May 16, 1883 from GenealogyBank.com

The umpire was Mr. William Furlong.

New York Herald - May 16, 1883 from GenealogyBank.com

But wait.  The Cubs weren't even a team in 1883.  Yes.  And no.  The National League franchise from Chicago was then known as the White Stockings.  According to the Cubs 2015 Media Guide other nicknames for the Cubs over the years have been :

• White Stockings (1876-1894)
• Colts (1887-1906)
• Black Stockings (1888-1889)
• Ex-Colts (1898)
• Rainmakers (1898)
• Orphans (1898-1902)
• Cowboys (1899)
• Rough Riders (1899-1900)
• Remnants (1901-1902)
• Recruits (1902)
• Panamas (1903)
• Zephyrs (1905)
• Nationals (1905-1907)
• Spuds (1906)
• Trojans (1913)
• Cubs (1902-present)

Well, the Giants didn't move to San Francisco until 1958.  Before that they were the New York Giants, from 1885.  The two previous seasons they were the New York Gothams.  Same team.

Back to mid-May, 1883.  The Chicago White Stockings swept the New York Gothams in that first three game series (8-7, 6-2, 15-2).

It wouldn't be until June 2, 1883, when the Chicago club visited New York that they would first lose to the Gothams (7-22).

Times, and names, have changed.