NCAA Hoops Today

Arizona has been a magnet for coaches who change their minds in the last few years. But this time, it looks like (at least for now) they have a new head coach (again). Sean Miller slept-over it and finally decided to join his former boss, Herb Sendek, in the Pac-10. Not only that, but he is going to become Herb's bitter rival, at Arizona.

It will certainly test their relationship, but both seem to be even-keeled type of guys, so I highly doubt they are going to really turn into Ratzilla vs Roy Williams.

All things considered, this is a great hire for the Arizona program. Three years ago, this would not have been a great hire, because Arizona was at the top. But after three years of confusion and uncertainty, Arizona lost its top-tier program. It almost became "yet another Pac-10 team".

However, Sean Miller is a good hire in that he will slowly but steadily build this program, he is going to load up with a 10-man rotation, and probably run and gun a little bit more than his Xavier team.

We tip our hat to Wake Forest and Xavier for working together to set up the brand new Skip Prosser Classic. The late Skip Prosser coaches at both places and was one of the most respected college basketball coaches and teachers of all time. The first game in the 10-year series will take place in the 2009-2010 season.

Free throws you say? OuCH! Outside shooting you say? OUCH! Shot selection you say? OUCH! Highly-touted kitten bumping into walls and defenders? OUCH!

There will be growing pains for this year's Memphis team, before they can reach a point where they can reach their potential as dictated by their experience and talent level. Conference USA teams, start watching this tape over and over, it's your chance to beat the 2008 NCAA co-champions!

Xavier is what Gonzaga should have been, but with not as much "buzz". They win consistently, they have post-season success, they build teams, not a collection of all-stars, and things like that. There is no "t" in Xavier, but there is a "t" in team. And that's what they are!

Our favorite Xavier team is probably the 2004 Elite 8 team of Thad Matta, this is the team that was ROBBED of an NCAA Final Four appearance because the ZEBRAS gave the Dookies every single 50-50 call in that unforgettable Elite 8 game.

You can get a two hour preview of the NCAA Tourney games on CSTV, today at 2pm pacific (5pm eastern), but you can also get a preview right here. For all the TV stuff, be sure to check our March Madness TV listings.


West Virginia vs Xavier
The first wave of games tips off with a good old rivarly, Bob Huggins vs Xavier. As you may recall, Huggins was the head coach at Cincy, and they had an annual intense rivarly game every year. We now love West Virginia even more, after they beat up the Dookies, and we are planning a blogging celebration for them later today :) And because of that we want West Virgina to win and move along. But Xavier, just like Texas, is one of those crazy teams that can beat anyone and can lose to almost anyone. They already showed early tournament onions by making comebacks against Georgia and Purdue.

But ultimately we think the combination of outside shooting, Joe Alexander, and Bob Huggins toughness will get the Threepointers over the top and send the Musketeers home. And the X-men will have to worry some more, as their head coach may be poached by one of the BCS schools. Indiana is not the only major program looking for a head coach, and the impressive success of Herb Sendek at Arizona State may tempt other Pac-10 schools to go after one of his former assistants. We are talking potentially Oregon, California or USC. But let's leave that for the coaching carousel discussion :)


North Carolina vs Washington State
In the other game, North Carolina will face Washington State. This is the ultimate contrast in style, although the young singer is not a ...dick like his dad, he lets his team run when they have the advantage. We've said all along that Washington State, just like Wisconsin, are operating in a narrow band. They usually beat the teams they are supposed to beat, and lose to the teams they are supposed to lose to.

If you don't think so, be sure to check Washington State's record, courtesy of Ken Pom RPI. They are 0-5 against Sweet 16 teams (UCLA, Stanford), but they beat up NCAA teams that lost in the first week (Baylor, Zags, USC, Oregon). Arizona is an exception because when they had their full complement they were playing like a Sweet 16 team. But injuries and such derailed them. But that's a story for another day.

Ultimately we think that UNC will overmatch Wazoo. Derrick Low may give them some headaches, as neither Lawson or Q are ideally suited to guard him. Kyle Weaver on the other hand will have his hands full having to deal with Ellington on defense and Ginyard and Green on offense. Hansbrough will probably be limited by the Wazoo interior play and defensive scheme, but the combination of Lawson and Green/Ellington, and possibly Deon Thompson's bank shots will be the difference.


Louisville vs Tennessee
This is a game we have a hard time getting a read on. Both teams are deep, both press and run and gun. We would have preferred that this was a Final Four game instead of a Sweet 16 game.

But let's consider Tennessee's history in the NCAA tourney in the Bruce Pearl era and Pitino's history. That does not look favorable for Tennessee, but one could have easily made the same argument for Texas A&M vs Louisville last year at Rupp Arena, and Billy Clyde Gillispie pulled out a tough win at his future home court beating Pitino on his former home court. Or to use Pitino-speak, his former home cot :)

But there's something else that goes against Tennessee: Consider how they did not only in past NCAA tourneys under Bruce Pearl, but also in other tourneys. This year they got blown out by Texas in a pre-season tourney in New Jersey. Last year they lost to Butler in the pre-season NIT. They haven't done well in the SEC tourney either.

Obviously the three point shot can be a determining factor and if there is a big difference in the shots made, we think that the team with that advantage will probably win the game.

Other than Lofton - if he is having a wild shooting game - we don't see any potential matchup advantages for the Vols.

Ultimately we think that Padgett and T-Will will be able to make up for the potential shortcomings of the Cardinals guards crumbling under the Vols pressure, and Derrick Caracter and Earl Clark will be too much for the Vols big men to handle. Louisville will win, we predict, but it could be a very close game.


Western Kentucky vs UCLA
We badly want Western Kentucky to win, but we are afraid that UCLA will be too much. Duke West has been getting a series of "friendly" calls by the zebras, not just the highly visible controversial calls, but also the multiple fouls per possession the UCLA wrestling-forwards commit on screens on offense and double teams on defense.

We have enough material now to convict Ben Howland of ruining the game of basketball. You have two of the fastest guards in the country in Collison and Westbrook, and the most smartest (LOL) big man in Kevin Love, and yet you try to win the games in a slugfest, the same way a desperate low-major coach of a 300+ RRI team is clinging on to dear life. For crimes against basketball, Ben Howland, you have been convicted to lose in the Elite 8, and never make it to the Final Four again :)


Friday's Games
We will be posting our preview and predictions for the four day two games later today! Update! The time is Later! Here is the preview and predictions for day two of the Sweet 16 (Friday).

The battle of Cincy, prefaced by the city's mayor was a tough ugly grinded out affair, with a big scare for Marvin Gentry who got hit by one of his teammates while going for a loose ball. As the ESPN people said, its saving grace was that it was a big intracity rivalry game. They call it the CrossTown ShootOut. Josh Duncan got injured too and left the game.

Xavier did not look good though, especially in the first half, but they did show why they are highly rated at crunch time when they made the plays while Cincy didn't.

This was the first time I had seen either time, and since it was a big rivalry game, a lot of the stuff you may deduce from a typical game gets thrown out the window.

The game however showcases the pros and cons of having a tiny little point guard like Drew Lavender. Both on defense and offense you gain and you lose. This may be something that may bite the X-Men in the NCAA tourney.

And kudos to ESPN for discussing Skip Prosser's tenure at Xavier; it's still hard to digest that Skip Prosser is gone :-(

More on this game at BallHype, RUWT?, and SBRforum, and AOL Sports Fanhouse.

PS> Something a bit strange in the broadcast, with 1 minute 5 seconds left during the timeout, someone approached the Cincy bench and one of the Cincy people in a business suits reached out and pushed him away.