The Musings and Prophecies of Metstradamus

The Mets finished the first 81 games of the 2024 season with back-to-back unsightly losses to the Astros, with much help (or lack thereof) from a taxed, mediocre bullpen currently without its closer. To be fair, while Houston has not been great for most of this season, they have been good lately, and have also been to seven (7) consecutive American League Championship Series. So let's not lose our minds that the Amazins slipped back under .500 at 40-41. 

More importantly, the Mets spent June putting themselves in great shape for the 2nd half, with a real chance to break out of the large NL wildcard pack. The final 14 games before the All-Star Break include 7 with the nothing special Nats, 4 with the plucky Pirates and 3 with the wretched Rockies. And the first 3 after the break are against the miserable Marlins. I see them winning 12 of the 17 and arriving at 52-46 as the deadline approaches.

With that as a backdrop, here are my Mets Position Player Grades, starting with the order they bat most often:

Lindor: B+  If not for his absolutely putrid start to the season, he would've received an A. He has been the catalyst for this offense and his player's only meeting sure seemed to light a fire under this club. Oh and his defense is still Gold Glove caliber.

Nimmo: A-  He was slow out of the blocks as well, but arrived at mid-season with 13 HRs and 50 RBIs. He's found a real home in the 2-hole and continues to be very good defensively.

JD: A  His production has been terrific and his presence has been even better. Many of the hitters credit him with helping their approach. If only he had been ready sooner, the team might not have slumped so terribly in April.

Alonso: B-  I'm a bit critical here, because I expect so much from the Polar Bear. He has looked better at the plate lately and still hasn't gone on a big hot streak. I expect a big 2nd half from him.

Alvarez: A  He is becoming what everybody hoped... a fantastic hitter, a terrific catcher and a team leader. The team is 23-9 when he plays... and that's not a coincidence. 

Vientos: A  I watched Vientos the past two years when he received at bats here and there and didn't think he could hit enough breaking pitches to be really effective. MY BAD! He has been fantastic and shows no signs of slowing down.

Bader: B+  Excellent defense plus timely hitting has made the acquisition of him a steal. Maybe he just needed to get out of the Bronx!

Marte: B  His offense has been terrific. His arm is still excellent. His tracking of fly balls has been very shaky. He is still a good piece of the puzzle but scares me.

McNeil: F  For most of the season he has hit lazy flyballs or weak groundouts. Would love for him to find his batting stroke but he's running out of time. If he somehow gets back on the beam, this lineup becomes even more ferocious.

Iglesias: A+  Fabulous fielding. Has been outstanding at the plate. And his song is now the theme for the team. OH MY GOD!

Taylor: B  Has done what has been asked of him and like Bader, has had some clutch hits. 

Torrens A-  Pefect backup to Alvarez with good pop and strong defense.

Stewart: D-  He's a faster runner than Vogelbach and he can sorta play outfield. But it's time for him to go.

The pitching staff has been rather schizophrenic, sometimes scintillating, other times exasperating. I'll handle the starters first and then the relievers.

Severino: A  After last year and his first start for the Mets, I expected NOTHING out of him. Thankfully, he has been an ace since then. I think the Mets should extend him NOW.

Quintana: C-  He's allowed 2 earned runs or less in 8 of his 16 starters. In the other 8 starts, he's given up 32 runs in 37.2 innings. He's like Forrest Gump's box of chocolates, you never know what you're gonna gget.

Manaea: B  He's had 12 good-to-great starts and 3 clunkers. It would be nice if he could keep his pitch counts down and go deeper into games. But he's given the team a good chance to win 80% of the time.

Megill: D  His first three starts were good. Four of his last five have been terrible. He has good stuff but once trouble starts he seemingly can't get out of it. 

Peterson: B  Four of his five starts have been very good. He still walks too many batters (13 in 27 innings) but unlike Megill, seems to be able to work out of jams.

Scott: B+  He filled in nicely during May. Looks to have the makeup of a solid middle to back end of rotation starter. I think we're about to find out more about him.

Butto: B+  He filled in nicely during April and May. Looks to have the makeup of a solid middle to back end of rotation starter. I think we're about to find out more about him.

Diaz: D  Returned from last year's injury and looked solid, then terrible, then very good, then very sticky. This team can't make the playoffs without him anchoring the bullpen.

Ottovino: D  Has allowed earned runs in 10 of 33 appearances and has lost his role as setup man. It would really help for him to find it in the 2nd half.

Garrett: C+  Unexpected excellence followed by expected unpredictability. I'm worried we've seen his best pitching already and he's going to struggle more as the season progresses.

Reid-Foley: B  Sometimes I wonder how he gets anybody out. But he's been effective more often than not. He needs to stay healthy.

Houser: F/A  He was putrid as a starter and has been terrific as a long man out of the bullpen. It's like he's two different pitchers. Then again, I've never seen starter Houser and reliever Houser in the same room together.

The final pieces of the puzzle are the GM and manager. 

Stearns: B  He's made some good acquisitions. He's been a little slow to jettison dead weight. His first deadline with the Mets will be fascinating.

Mendoza: B  I liked him a lot at the start of the year. I've been less pleased as the year has gone on. I generally intensely dislike managers and give them nasty nicknames, but we're not anywhere near that yet.

On June 9th, after the Mets had rallied and then held on to beat the Phillies in London, I stepped out on a limb and declared the Mets would make the playoffs. At the time, the Mets were ahead of only the Marlins and Rockies in the NL Standings. But for some reason, I was sure the comeback win was going to spark a run.

I'm not Metstradamus, nor do I play him on TV, but I'm thrilled to say what I envisioned is what has happened. Since then, the Amazins have won 11 of 14 games, including two thrashings of the Yankees vaunted pitching staff. Not only have they climbed back to the .500 level, but they are 4th in the WildCard standings, and more importantly, are even in the loss column with the 3rd place Cardinals and ahead by two of the 2nd place Padres.

The offense has exploded, a polar opposite (with some help from the Polar Bear) from the start of the season. Lindor's move to the leadoff spot has worked fabulously. Moving Nimmo to the two-hole has been excellent. JD has been JD, a stud hitter. Alvarez returned and has again looked like a star. Vientos has come up and hit well. Bader has produced. Pretty much everybody has gone nuts at the plate besides Squirrel. Sadly, I worry he is completely lost. But Iglesias has played well, so I'm certainly not panicked.

The starting pitching has been good, mostly due to Severino, but it seems Quintana and Manaea are hitting their strides as well. I said at the start of the year that Kodai Senga would be the key. If he returns and pitches like an ace, this team will be in great position to make the postseason and be a true threat.

The bullpen has bent but not broken most nights. I expected Diaz to struggle a bit, but then right himself and return to be a very good closer (albeit not otherworldly like 2022). Well, that happened, sorta. With him suspended, let's just say I'd advise the offense to keep scoring 7 runs per game.  

All of the above has combined for a red hot club that believes in itself and is finding ways to win instead of ways to lose. I'm thrilled the Mets are back in a NY groove.

In the last five games, Francisco Lindor has put up a slash line of .278/.278/.611 with a homer and 8 RBI.

The Mets went 1-4 in those games, and the 1 was a direct result of Lindor's walk off hit against the Cubs.

It goes to show how hard it is to carry a team like the 2024 Mets. It's a point that I'm probably going to belabor from now until they're eliminated, but the margin of error for this team is razor thin. Even in a stretch where Lindor is hot, that only gets them so far, especially if a normally dependable bullpen goes south. And with the general state of the starting pitching not going deep into games, the bullpen will go south.

Now, if Edwin Diaz is one of those folks that goes south, as he did on Sunday against Randy Arozarena with a strike to go to salvage the last game of the Rays series, then all bets are off and you might as well pick a WNBA team to follow this summer if you don't already. If 2019 Edwin Diaz has kidnapped 2022 Edwin Diaz and tied him up in a closet with his fingertips inches away from his utility belt, then we have no hope anyway.

I will say that to expect 2022 Edwin to magically pick up where he left off at the 2023 WBC is a little unfair when you factor in an entire season off, and the inconsistent work he's gotten in 2024 because there just aren't enough save opportunities or even important hold opportunities to go around. So while I think there's reason for concern, it's not time to push the panic button just yet on him. But this team isn't built to survive a slumping bullpen. Most teams aren't, but certainly not a team that's slightly above league average in runs per game.

***

I will say that the start on Saturday by Christian Scott is a buoy to my hopes. The first three batters of his major league career produced one run and no outs. Scott responded by retiring 20 of his next 23. It could be equal parts composure and not having the most raucous home crowd rattling you (it was 50/50 at best in St. Petersburg), but the Trop is still a major league stadium, and he had never pitched in one before . To do what he did takes a certain something or somethings that not everyone has right away.

The first thing that struck me was the number 45 and the Zack Wheeler type delivery. It made me sad, but as long as Jeff Wilpon is nowhere near this team, maybe we could do right by this 45 one day.

The second thing that struck me was that he had a plan. Adam Wainwright (yeah, THAT Adam Wainwright) laid it out perfectly when he announced the game on FOX. Scott was filling up the strike zone and Wainwright said that he needed to start throwing the sweeper out of the zone. It took Scott until the second time through the order to start doing that. Executing a plan is easy when you have the stuff to be able to do it, but not many pitchers have the composure to put their stuff to the best possible use in their first major league start. This kid did it.

Speking of composure, there wsa a point late in hsi start where a call went against him ... a check swing or something ... and Scott giggled. Some pitchers would hve been flustered. But nothing seems to phase this kid. Incredible for his first major league start. We'll see what happens to him when he has to pitch in Philly or Dodger Stadium or Atlanta, but his mental make up is encouraging.

There's also the matter of how he can actually help the team, which is simple if he keeps pitching into the 7th inning consistently. There will be bumps in the road, for sure. Doc Halladay pitched a one-hitter in his first ever start, and HE went down to the minors to fix himself. So there's going to be that Terry Collins/Jacob deGrom moment coming, whether it be on camera or not. But he seems to have that "ice in his veins" trait that will get him through those moments.

So far so good for Christian Scott. But so far not so good for the Mets, who dropped four gut punch games in the span of a week while only winning one such game. Not a good ratio for a team that lives on the fringes. Thankfully, there is plenty of time to deliver more gut punches than they take. We'll see.

June 3rd of last season. 120 games ago. 318 days ago. That was the last time the Mets had a winning record. They were 30-29 and I thought they were headed for another playoff appearance once everybody was healthy. I was wrong.

16 days ago, the team was 0-3 on its way to 0-5. If you had asked me then if the 2024 Mets could go 9-3 in their next 12 games, I would've asked if you're buying your ayahuasca from a certain Jets quarterback. I was wrong.

Yet here the Mets are, 9-8, bubbling over with confidence as a new hero emerges every day. The latest and greatest was Joey Wendle, who replaced Brett Baty and delivered a double to drive in the winning run. When Wendle originally came to the plate, I was thinking maybe a squeeze bunt to try and tie the game. I was wrong.

On Wednesday, Luis Severino will try to deliver his third straight solid outing. I confess, after his forgettable first start, coming off a horrific 2023, I figured he would be out of the rotation already. I was wrong.

So now the future looks good. The offense is scoring runs and delivering in big spots. The pitching has been good (best ERA in NL), and reports have Kodai Senga on track to come back late May. Edwin Diaz is back and the bullpen looks legit again. And now I have playoffs and maybe even an NL East Division Title dancing in my head. I hope I'm not wrong.

 I went back to the first blog I ever wrote on this site. I promised a few things, first thing being "constant shots at the Wilpon fmily."

(I alos promised an essay about why Jeanne Zelasko should be dipped in motor oil and lit on fire, which I admit in hindsight may have been a little extreme ... though I think I might still have it in my drafts somewhere. Hey, it was 2005. Different times. Sorry, Jeanne.)

The Wilpons, however, should absolutely be dipped in motor oil and lit on fire. I'm not apologizing one bit for that, especially after Doc's number retirement speech on Sunday. To you millenials and Gen Z-ers who treat everything as if it's the first time we've ever heard it, we knew in '94 how much the Wilpons' took it personally when Doc relapsed with substance abuse problems. The further away we get from that time, and the more we learn about substance abuse, the more we realize that the Wilpons were absolute morons for taking it so personally. So when Doc said touchingly that he called the Mets every time he left another team, whether it be the Yankees, Cleveland, and Tampa Bay, it wasn't a surprise to hear that the team rebuffed him at all turns.

At least with that, you could always explain it away at it being a baseball decision. It's not as if the Mets couldn't justify not bringing a guy back who had a 4.94 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP between 1996 and 1999. But then when he said that he tried to retire as a Met with a one day ceremonia contract, and the Wilpons wouldn't even do that ... are we serious? The Wilpons couldn't even do that? Could they not afford that luncheon?

I've always felt that number retirements weren't solely based on how many years a player played for a franchise, or the statistical counting number that they put up. "This wasn't enough. That wasn't enough." Yes, that's certainly part of it. But there's also an element of how that player made the bulk of the fan base feel (yes, there will always be dissenters.) But Doc WAS Mets baseball from 1984-1988. In many ways, he was New York baseball during that time, and in 1985, he WAS baseball. His arrival in 1984 coincided with the rebirth of the Mets franchise that saw them leave the dark days post-Seaver trade and M. Donald Grant. And that 1986 title was the first and only title that a lot of us Gen-X Mets fans had ever seen.

And the Wilpons couldn't even give Doc a day ... A DAY ... to acknowledge the part he played in this. Doc wanted to come back. Begged it of you. And you couldn't give him a day, you no good lousy snake oil salesment. You treated the fans like peons for your entire reign of terror, and any roses you presented to the fan base had more thorns than a Ryan Church flight to Denver had bad ideas. And I'm glad Doc mentioned the Yankeesduring his speech. Yes, the fans booed ... it drove home the point that the Wilpons are petty. While I'm so glad they're gone, man ... think of how much different the last 20 years would have been with current ownership, or even non-toxic ownership. LOLMets makes sense when you realize that nobody treated Mets fans worse than the owners of the team. It all sends my vibes lower than Doc's '85 ERA.

Congratulations to Doc for finally getting the day you desereved ... 23 years too late thanks to certain people who should be metaphorically dipped in motor oil and lit on fire.