Mariners Morsels - aka "Free Adam Moore and Rich Poythress! (George Sherrill is FREE!)"

Posted in response to this article...

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Glad to see you fixed this to reflect Shannon as a 710/ESPN employee. I'm one of the people still pissed at how KOMO booted her out (and sooooo thankful her fans' lobbying efforts were rewarded when she was hired on at KIRO :-)

I really hope being the runner-up in this year's Cy Young Award contest really opens a lot of non-Internet-blog-savvy M's fan's eyes to how awesome he truly is. It's no secret that I'm one of the loudest "don't give him his crown yet" skeptics in the blogs, and it's certainly not because I'm a "Negative Ned..." But I'll still give Felix the credit he deserves for being absolutely amazing this season.

I'll give Felix his well-due credit, but I still don't think he's "arrived" yet. He's one big step closer, sure, but he's not quite yet in the same vein with the fans as "Griffey" "A-Rod" and "Randy" as Larry associates in the article. Certainly I understand the comparison - young, budding world-class superstar very close to free agency (and very close to earning the monster top-tier free agent contract).

But I just don't think Felix has achieved their level of superstardom yet. I believe he will, definitely, don't get me wrong, but I'm just saying he's a notch or two below those guys, relative to where they were when the same dilemma was forced upon the M's with those three.

For one - people don't pay to go see Felix. Or at least the attendance spike isn't noticeable yet. Certainly you hear about it and we talk about upcoming "Felix Day" on the Internet, but a lot of Internet M's fans either already have season tickets or live out of the area where it's inconvenient (at best -- if not downright impossible) to get to a game spur-of-the-moment. People knew when Randy was pitching. They'd stop what they're doing and make their plans around his pitching schedule. I haven't quite seen this (outside of the blogs of course) with Felix.

People are starting to talk about him more and more, certainly. Casual fans in the office, say, are starting to talk about him. But not QUITE to the same level as Ichiro or Griffey (or, heck, even Willie Bloomquist back when he was still a Mariner).

He's not a "living legend" in their minds yet. They're aware of the hype, generally, and they'll certainly talk about a good performance. But I don't think this is quite true:

"Now these same fans have given their heart to this regal Venezuelan fireballer, and they fret about his future in Seattle — rightfully so. For this is the winter that will almost certainly seal his future with the Mariners."

It's been talked about in the media more and more, so yes, casual fans are starting to pay attention. But I don't see Felix as having won the hearts of as many fans as young Griffey, A-Rod, and Randy all did. Certainly the niche "Vote for Felix" t-shirts are out there, and more and more people are buying Felix jerseys (another sign of player popularity). He's arriving, definitely, but he hasn't arrived like those other three had yet. Certainly those of us who pay attention to the M's on the Internet recognize him, but there are a whole heck of a lot of casual M's fans who pay at least a glancing pass of attention to the Mariners who don't hang out on the M's vast and deep Internet corners.

Maybe it's unfair - those others are upper-tier HOF talent (yes, even A-Roid) and the years they were playing within comparable situations to Felix that Larry mentions were much more prosperous days (95, 97 playoff years) whereas 04 and 08 were both franchise disasters (turning casual fans' attention away). Times are different, too. I'm just saying that I don't think Felix has quite been welcomed into M's fans hearts nearly as deeply and as widespread as those other three players.

And then there's this guy named Ichiro. And, well, Griffey. But, then, A-Rod, Randy and Griffey had each other, and Edgar and Buhner (and Dan Wilson's cute butt) to contend with.

I'm not saying that Felix isn't good and doesn't deserve to be locked up by the Mariners (I really really really want to keep him, in spite of inherent risks of giving long-term contracts to pitchers). I'm just contending that I don't think he's quite become the hometown hero/superstar that a lot of people think he has yet.

Hopefully he will while he's still here. But it might take some sort of post-season moment, or something über-epic (anyone remember Daisuke's first home game in Boston???) for him to be deeply entrenched into the hearts of ALL Mariners fans to the level that Griffey, A-Roid, and RJ were at when this dilemma came up in their situations.

Let's not forget Edgar, Ichiro and Buhner, too, though, as models of success in keeping the hometown hero home. Buhner was soooooooo close to leaving Seattle for Baltimore in his free agency year, but the M's were able to keep him. Edgar was the rare example of a HOF-level player staying with one team forever. Ichiro probably will go back to Japan and play or retire rather than play for another MLB team.

So there is hope. Not everyone is anxious to chase the highest dollar amount. Let's also not forget that Felix chose the Mariners over "MostMoney" before, when he signed his original contract (first link I could find was this one, but it's common knowledge: http://en.allexperts.com/e/f/f/f%C3%A9lix_hern%C3%A1ndez.htm).

Labels: article comments, contracts, Felix Hernandez, King Felix, larry stone

With Trent dusting off the cobwebs and writing a fine post as to why the M's should not go anywhere near a contract extension for Guillen, neither of us are actually in the mood to see him leave right now, either. At Churchill's Prospect Insider party on Saturday, I brought up the idea of "Selling high" on Guillen, since he's hitting the ball well, kicking butt in the clubhouse (in a good way), and has shown that the TJ surgery didn't stop his awesome arm. We came to the conclusion that if you did that, you're basically giving up on the season.

Guillen's one of the reasons why the 2007 M's are having any sort of success whatsoever against lefty starters. Moving Ibanez out of the 3-hole is another. Heh. But anyway, not only is Guillen performing well, he's also very much leading the charge in the clubhouse. I know the M's are leading the league in overpaying for (and overvaluing) veteran leadership, but in Guillen's case, I'd be willing to be that the M's would lose a lot if they took him out of the clubhouse right now. His bat is hot, hot, hot right now (as is, of course, Beltre's), and he's leading the charge both with his bat and his tongue.

He also hates Mike Scoscia, or so the story goes. Maybe they've patched things up, maybe not. Still, the M's have the best opportunity they've had in years to propel themselves directly into the playoffs. A series win could very well push them over the same hump that reared its ugly head back when the M's couldn't get past the 3-games-over-.500 mark. A series sweep? Yeah, unlikely, but still. In spite of being their real staff ace, Kelvim Escobar has struggled against the M's. They've also seemed to have figured out Jered Weaver's stuff recently, too. And the M's have this knack of dominating tough SPs and struggling vs. weak SPs.

This series is crucial for the M's playoff hopes. It's ironic that it hinges on the non-waiver trade deadline. With T-Rex out of the division, and especially not going to Anaheim, it's time for Guillen to lead the charge and destroy those Angels once and for all!

Labels: Angels, contention, contracts, Division battles, Jose Guillen

I've been mulling over this post for a long, long time. I figure I better start writing things down and finish it before it's a) irrelevant or b) covered excessively elsewhere. Since b) can only get worse as the 2007 season rolls on, I'm going to get my thoughts down now.

In analyzing the Ichiro situation, and his impending free agency, it's relatively straightforward to take a simple approach -- look at scenarios and do a cost-benefit analysis of those scenarios. So, that's what I'm going to do here. I'll definitely further discuss my opinions in a later post or two, but for now I just want to make an attempt to lay down some simple framework.

Scenaro 1 -- Ichiro is traded during the season

Notes: For this to happen, it will have to become very, very clear that Ichiro wants to leave Seattle, and becomes very public or vocal about it. I'd be very surprised if this scenario comes into play, even though I could argue it may make the most sense for the M's.

Cost:

• Ichiro's hitting, base stealing, and defense disappears.
• If LH major-league-ready bat doesn't come over in a trade, that's one more LH bat the M's need to add back into the lineup.
  
• Fans disappointed/angry/sad/annoyed, etc. (leading to potential significant revenue loss).
  
• Potential loss of other role players in an Ichiro + trade.
• M's lose a little more of the national spotlight, and their relevance, by losing a nationally-recognized Mariner (i.e. when some random Yankees fan in Illinois is asked to name at least one Seattle Mariner, I'd bet that fan would be most likely to name Ichiro, if he/she's able to name any M's player at all. We need to work more on the "Free George Sherrill" campaign).
  

Benefit:

• Adam Jones develops as the M's new CF, and adds a little more punch to the lineup.
  
• Ichiro would likely bring some big time impact players via trade -- players that would potentially fill more than one hole on the team.
• A possibly distracting situation is resolved.
  

Scenario 2 -- Ichiro stays the entire season, and leaves via free agency.

Notes: This is a real possibility, with Howard/Chuck and the rest of the M's execs very hesitant to trade their franchise player. It would also likely be the most painful for everyone but Ichiro. However, since this really would be one of the first times Ichiro would be a free agent , ever, I can see where he really honestly would like to at least reach free agency. I mean, think about it -- wouldn't you want to have the baseball resume Ichiro has, and finally be able to have a lot of control over your own destiny? It's Russian Roulette for the team, as it really could be tough selling Ichiro on this franchise's future. Especially if the front office turmoil that needs to happen, happens. But, of course, one could argue that a front office churnage would also encourage Ichiro to stick around. Especially if the manager's one of those casualties...

Cost:

• Ichiro's hitting, base stealing, and defense disappears (in 2008 and beyond).
• Losing out on potential trade chips that could help the team.
  
• M's lose relevance and national spotlight even more (in 2008 and beyond).
• Another LH bat needed in the lineup.
  

Benefit:

• Ichiro helps the team in 2007, if they are close to a playoff race.
  
• Payroll flexibility, as Ichiro's not going to be cheap.
  
• Adam Jones inherits the CF job.
  
• Team would definitely offer arbitration, and get the draft pick(s) that Ichiro's departure could potentially help out in the future more than Ichiro can.
  

Scenario 3 -- Ichiro remains a Mariner, either through signing a contract extension during the season, or as a free agent.

Notes: Right now, I'd say this is the most likely scenario, but, honestly, that's more of a guess than anything. Unless Ichiro truly wants out (which I don't think even he knows yet, but is still very, very possible), I think he stays in Seattle. The M's will give him plenty of money, and I'm sure he knows that, and I can certainly see where that might not be the best idea, too.

Cost:

• Payroll. Lots of it. Ichiro's going to get a boatload of cash. He'd likely tie up around 20% of the M's payroll. That's a huge chunk, really.
• Potential trade of Adam Jones or other OF prospects (Wlad, Reed, etc...).
• Risk of aging effects. I would argue that Ichiro's more likely to buck the aging trends, but I still recognize that there's some real, significant risk in committing 3-5 years to a 35+ year old player.
  
• Flexibility. Sort of inherent in the payroll thing, because they do go hand-in-hand, but it could work to their disadvantage, too. If they're going to have a $100 million payroll from now on, is it in their best interest to give Jose Guillen 1/2 of what Ichiro would've gotten? By giving so much money to Ichiro, this answers that question a bit. But, it also could close another potential opening for a much needed power hitter.
  
• Losing out on potential trade chips that, combined, could help the team more than Ichiro himself could.

Benefit:

• M's keep some relevance and retain some national spotlight (in 2008 and beyond).
• Ichiro's hitting, fielding, running. While there's some risk of those skills diminishing, there's also a fair enough chance that they don't decline significantly. Especially if you consider Ichiro (as I do) a HOF-caliber player.
  
• One less LH bat to acquire.
• Fan satisfaction -- potential retention of revenue by having happy fans that don't overreact to losing yet another huge Seattle franchise star...
  

Okay, so that's my stab at this. What am I missing? Do you see costs/benefits in any of these scenarios that I've overlooked. I know you do -- I can't see everything, and I tend to overlook even the obvious a lot of the time...

Labels: contracts, Dilemmas, free agency, Ichiro, trades