A mechanism for eliciting probabilities

E Karni - Econometrica, 2009 - Wiley Online Library
E Karni
Econometrica, 2009Wiley Online Library
A Mechanism for Eliciting Probabilities Page 1 Econometrica, Vol. 77, No. 2 (March, 2009),
603–606 A MECHANISM FOR ELICITING PROBABILITIES BY EDI KARNI1 This paper
describes a direct revelation mechanism for eliciting agents’ subjective probabilities. The game
induced by the mechanism has a dominant strategy equilibrium in which the players reveal
their subjective probabilities. KEYWORDS: Probability elicitation, direct revelation mechanism.
1. INTRODUCTION AN INDIVIDUAL’S ASSESSMENT of the likelihoods of events in which he …
This paper describes a direct revelation mechanism for eliciting agents' subjective probabilities. The game induced by the mechanism has a dominant strategy equilibrium in which the players reveal their subjective probabilities.
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