Gary R. Skoog wrote an essay in the 1987 Bill James Abstract called "Measuring Runs Created: The Value Added Approach" which used the play-by-play data being kept by Project Scoresheet to evaluate the offensive contribution of each player. (To read the original article, click here.) In order to calculate the value of each play, he borrowed an idea from Pete Palmer (in The Hidden Game of Baseball) and first determined the number of runs an average team could be expected to score during the rest of an inning from each of the 24 possible game situations (0, 1 or 2 outs and all 8 combinations of runners aboard). For example, the table for the 1992 American League looks like this:
MenOn Number of Outs
FST 0 1 2
--- .482 .258 .096
x-- .853 .510 .211
-x- 1.095 .646 .293
xx- 1.494 .907 .423
--x 1.356 .940 .377
x-x 1.804 1.151 .470
-xx 2.169 1.418 .598
xxx 2.429 1.549 .745
All of the tables are here.
He next sets the value of each offensive play equal to:
( run-scored-on-play + exp-runs(end) ) - exp-runs(start)
For example, a home run with no out and none on would have a value of (not too surprisingly) 1 run ( 1 + .482 - .482), while a strikeout in the same situation would have a value of -.224 ( 0 + .258 - .482). In general, it asks the question: did the play leave the inning in better or worse shape than it found it?
I like this method because it takes into account a lot of what are traditionally thought of as intangibles. For example, a hitter gets credit for making more productive outs as well as for clutch performance (a single with the bases loaded and two outs that scores a pair has a value of 1.678; with the bases empty the value of a single drops to .115). It will produce results different from a good linear weight formula for two basic reasons: 1) it will include some stats (like pickoffs and reached on error) that aren't typically available and so aren't part of most linear weight formulas, and 2) it includes the context (men on and number of outs) associated with each event, factors which help determine their importance.
I would like to point out a few problems with this approach. For one thing, it assumes that the expected runs from each situation is independent of the hitters coming to the plate. Lineups are not homogenous and the true value of an event depends upon many factors, including the quality of the batters due up, the pitcher on the mound, and the handedness of these players. Another thing we ought to keep in mind is that this analysis doesn't take into account one-run strategies. Sacrifices are almost always bad plays according to the Value Added method. Despite the fact that sacrifices look bad from the point of view of trying to maximize your team's total runs, it often increases the possibility of scoring a single run, and sometimes one run is all you need.
The rest of this article will attempt to apply the Value Added method to all facets of on-field performance except fielding. It will use play-by-play data from the American and National Leagues from 1960 to 2004. I will explain how I applied this methodology to each aspect of the game and will compare its results to those produced by other approaches to see if VA gives us any insights that might not be possible otherwise. Finally, I will discuss what place VA should have in our tool-kit of analytical methods.
This article is an updated version of one that appeared in the 2000 edition of the Big Bad Baseball Annual. At that time, I displayed Value Added data from 1980 to 1998. The good news is that we now have more than twice as many years to include. The bad news is that we do not have complete play-by-play data for all of these years. So before proceeding, we need to come up with some way of dealing with the missing games. For those games, we still have each player's official batting line. But while we know how many hits, walks and so on each player had in these games, we don't know the context and so can't really do the level of analysis we had planned for those games.
What I decided to do in these cases is to determine an average value for each type of play in the league that season and credit the player for those values. For example, here are the average values for plays in the 1963 NL:
Play Value
Single .431
Double .729
Triple .967
Home Run 1.416
Non-Intentional Walk .279
Intentional Walk .163
Hit By Pitch .295
Sacrifice Hit -.056
Sacrifice Fly .052
Grounded into DP -.688
Strikeout -.238
Other Out -.200
Stolen Base .205
Caught Stealing -.395
This is simply a linear weight system, but the linear weights are derived from Value Added data. Here are the weights for all the years:
Year LG 1B 2B 3B HR NIBB IBB HBP SH SF GDP SO OOUT SB CS
1960 AL .464 .765 .992 1.419 .298 .150 .324 -.061 .003 -.775 -.268 -.233 .215 -.397
1961 AL .469 .755 1.053 1.415 .316 .165 .357 -.061 -.059 -.811 -.282 -.237 .203 -.403
1962 AL .467 .743 .972 1.419 .315 .207 .347 -.088 -.018 -.778 -.277 -.236 .186 -.441
1963 AL .448 .733 1.019 1.380 .291 .166 .310 -.054 .006 -.730 -.253 -.216 .220 -.421
1964 AL .439 .693 .986 1.388 .286 .148 .304 -.040 .026 -.717 -.248 -.211 .180 -.409
1965 AL .434 .687 .984 1.403 .265 .163 .280 -.023 .130 -.685 -.237 -.204 .196 -.405
1966 AL .440 .691 .950 1.398 .290 .208 .319 -.087 .052 -.702 -.239 -.202 .181 -.415
1967 AL .444 .736 1.020 1.379 .284 .157 .301 -.051 .050 -.690 -.238 -.198 .229 -.390
1968 AL .418 .670 .863 1.388 .262 .145 .273 -.054 .128 -.642 -.214 -.182 .193 -.389
1969 AL .450 .727 1.067 1.399 .309 .225 .336 -.102 .046 -.747 -.256 -.219 .193 -.400
1970 AL .441 .745 1.000 1.414 .286 .141 .336 -.074 .034 -.721 -.259 -.217 .201 -.398
1971 AL .438 .718 1.002 1.408 .281 .148 .321 -.062 .024 -.701 -.243 -.207 .188 -.380
1972 AL .421 .701 .990 1.444 .266 .165 .294 -.037 .111 -.656 -.223 -.189 .197 -.362
1973 AL .460 .758 1.001 1.421 .301 .201 .307 -.042 -.002 -.766 -.272 -.228 .214 -.408
1974 AL .455 .771 1.020 1.417 .301 .156 .306 -.047 .010 -.744 -.263 -.222 .224 -.417
1975 AL .456 .785 1.012 1.414 .288 .171 .310 -.033 .019 -.759 -.272 -.228 .222 -.419
1976 AL .449 .772 1.074 1.430 .293 .163 .331 -.083 .041 -.726 -.262 -.216 .214 -.395
1977 AL .453 .752 .962 1.385 .288 .172 .307 -.059 .037 -.776 -.279 -.236 .221 -.419
1978 AL .457 .735 1.022 1.399 .306 .186 .318 -.084 -.008 -.774 -.269 -.227 .190 -.406
1979 AL .467 .774 1.042 1.401 .312 .246 .360 -.069 -.071 -.826 -.291 -.247 .217 -.433
1980 AL .460 .782 1.082 1.403 .305 .194 .343 -.075 -.056 -.795 -.282 -.238 .220 -.446
1981 AL .452 .756 1.029 1.421 .293 .152 .326 -.061 -.002 -.727 -.257 -.219 .200 -.419
1982 AL .460 .765 1.055 1.407 .300 .133 .316 -.086 -.040 -.791 -.280 -.237 .198 -.439
1983 AL .469 .769 1.097 1.387 .315 .201 .331 -.070 -.088 -.815 -.282 -.239 .205 -.458
1984 AL .454 .756 1.103 1.411 .311 .198 .329 -.067 -.017 -.802 -.275 -.234 .201 -.432
1985 AL .458 .792 1.095 1.403 .300 .157 .322 -.056 -.063 -.800 -.281 -.240 .221 -.424
1986 AL .470 .765 1.033 1.384 .314 .165 .325 -.081 -.027 -.815 -.283 -.245 .182 -.456
1987 AL .477 .774 .967 1.379 .323 .177 .350 -.101 -.031 -.853 -.298 -.257 .186 -.456
1988 AL .468 .776 1.027 1.381 .315 .171 .347 -.105 -.077 -.810 -.274 -.235 .185 -.433
1989 AL .467 .764 1.015 1.395 .305 .181 .337 -.095 -.008 -.797 -.269 -.230 .197 -.427
1990 AL .462 .770 1.099 1.396 .299 .160 .316 -.035 -.036 -.765 -.272 -.232 .201 -.426
1991 AL .469 .778 1.112 1.426 .312 .176 .343 -.079 -.026 -.792 -.278 -.241 .190 -.456
1992 AL .460 .763 1.081 1.416 .307 .174 .332 -.082 -.079 -.784 -.272 -.231 .178 -.422
1993 AL .480 .766 1.085 1.411 .320 .183 .323 -.100 -.084 -.831 -.292 -.250 .190 -.425
1994 AL .489 .790 1.056 1.399 .333 .191 .367 -.113 -.089 -.887 -.312 -.272 .195 -.479
1995 AL .496 .769 1.079 1.411 .337 .209 .366 -.156 -.106 -.888 -.312 -.270 .191 -.480
1996 AL .492 .818 1.093 1.404 .345 .220 .368 -.153 -.094 -.919 -.325 -.285 .202 -.478
1997 AL .474 .765 1.059 1.400 .323 .236 .344 -.151 -.058 -.871 -.302 -.260 .179 -.445
1998 AL .481 .789 .989 1.392 .326 .213 .341 -.113 -.043 -.892 -.303 -.264 .169 -.456
1999 AL .493 .799 1.055 1.416 .330 .181 .358 -.115 -.149 -.905 -.322 -.277 .175 -.481
2000 AL .496 .772 1.074 1.407 .353 .229 .382 -.134 -.126 -.920 -.322 -.282 .152 -.478
2001 AL .461 .772 1.095 1.391 .312 .192 .351 -.091 -.076 -.841 -.292 -.253 .182 -.437
2002 AL .499 .748 1.016 1.396 .345 .208 .368 -.158 -.062 -.878 -.299 -.261 .163 -.483
2003 AL .478 .782 1.026 1.382 .332 .185 .358 -.090 -.100 -.866 -.295 -.259 .189 -.427
2004 AL .478 .803 .996 1.397 .333 .209 .351 -.123 -.096 -.891 -.302 -.265 .178 -.452
Where: NIBB - unintentional walks
IBB - intentional walks
OOUT - other outs (not strikeouts or grounded into double-plays)
Year LG 1B 2B 3B HR NIBB IBB HBP SH SF GDP SO OOUT SB CS 1960 NL .453 .759 .943 1.394 .300 .183 .314 -.066 -.023 -.741 -.260 -.221 .184 -.372 1961 NL .450 .751 1.100 1.405 .302 .201 .332 -.082 -.035 -.764 -.275 -.235 .201 -.371 1962 NL .468 .750 1.028 1.411 .300 .159 .321 -.056 -.044 -.776 -.274 -.234 .198 -.386 1963 NL .431 .729 .967 1.416 .279 .163 .295 -.056 .052 -.688 -.238 -.200 .205 -.395 1964 NL .455 .711 1.013 1.416 .298 .201 .349 -.062 .044 -.738 -.251 -.213 .183 -.381 1965 NL .444 .753 .980 1.387 .282 .119 .290 -.064 .041 -.716 -.249 -.209 .208 -.396 1966 NL .433 .732 .909 1.420 .278 .141 .310 -.031 .074 -.717 -.248 -.212 .192 -.375 1967 NL .438 .768 .985 1.401 .262 .106 .270 -.044 .076 -.690 -.240 -.201 .236 -.401 1968 NL .423 .708 .881 1.392 .261 .150 .266 -.059 .111 -.669 -.216 -.181 .191 -.346 1969 NL .464 .741 1.006 1.401 .314 .184 .334 -.085 .044 -.763 -.257 -.219 .182 -.416 1970 NL .465 .770 .992 1.428 .306 .166 .325 -.079 .016 -.790 -.279 -.236 .209 -.408 1971 NL .446 .714 .951 1.416 .307 .217 .345 -.083 .037 -.717 -.248 -.212 .172 -.390 1972 NL .447 .719 1.041 1.407 .288 .115 .280 -.093 .012 -.725 -.245 -.207 .191 -.401 1973 NL .452 .738 1.017 1.405 .304 .171 .319 -.088 .006 -.745 -.257 -.219 .186 -.431 1974 NL .456 .752 .971 1.448 .304 .176 .346 -.104 -.030 -.770 -.260 -.221 .187 -.440 1975 NL .457 .739 1.020 1.414 .295 .153 .311 -.109 .080 -.757 -.260 -.221 .185 -.418 1976 NL .463 .732 1.019 1.430 .310 .191 .352 -.092 -.023 -.763 -.255 -.216 .183 -.426 1977 NL .450 .715 1.009 1.436 .305 .212 .328 -.123 .010 -.808 -.270 -.229 .176 -.429 1978 NL .435 .734 1.014 1.430 .276 .129 .315 -.079 .074 -.729 -.251 -.213 .205 -.416 1979 NL .462 .746 .988 1.399 .307 .185 .345 -.077 .018 -.776 -.268 -.228 .195 -.436 1980 NL .441 .720 1.006 1.409 .278 .164 .292 -.084 .030 -.740 -.250 -.213 .196 -.449 1981 NL .441 .733 1.044 1.385 .292 .197 .312 -.079 .001 -.747 -.248 -.208 .187 -.418 1982 NL .453 .722 1.014 1.416 .292 .172 .330 -.101 .027 -.753 -.257 -.215 .172 -.445 1983 NL .440 .754 1.008 1.399 .279 .120 .300 -.099 .069 -.733 -.254 -.214 .195 -.433 1984 NL .445 .749 1.046 1.405 .286 .150 .325 -.071 -.003 -.753 -.252 -.213 .202 -.431 1985 NL .437 .763 1.060 1.418 .282 .117 .294 -.055 -.040 -.746 -.253 -.214 .228 -.420 1986 NL .440 .729 1.011 1.407 .274 .136 .311 -.077 .063 -.739 -.254 -.216 .195 -.414 1987 NL .449 .749 1.013 1.397 .285 .142 .311 -.111 .050 -.785 -.272 -.232 .182 -.431 1988 NL .441 .750 1.007 1.374 .280 .145 .315 -.093 .051 -.732 -.242 -.207 .197 -.405 1989 NL .446 .733 1.044 1.404 .289 .168 .315 -.112 .027 -.758 -.247 -.209 .182 -.428 1990 NL .463 .737 1.060 1.381 .300 .174 .316 -.139 -.003 -.788 -.261 -.224 .168 -.436 1991 NL .448 .750 1.082 1.404 .289 .123 .310 -.120 .030 -.743 -.253 -.216 .190 -.418 1992 NL .431 .737 1.066 1.415 .280 .143 .297 -.107 .043 -.738 -.245 -.207 .181 -.378 1993 NL .452 .768 1.121 1.395 .306 .178 .322 -.103 -.018 -.800 -.275 -.235 .205 -.446 1994 NL .445 .770 1.071 1.397 .286 .092 .314 -.140 .042 -.793 -.279 -.238 .198 -.433 1995 NL .466 .764 1.064 1.396 .312 .196 .337 -.142 .006 -.810 -.281 -.244 .199 -.450 1996 NL .476 .748 1.116 1.401 .326 .224 .368 -.162 -.046 -.842 -.287 -.243 .166 -.461 1997 NL .458 .754 1.105 1.383 .302 .162 .335 -.115 -.017 -.824 -.278 -.241 .178 -.445 1998 NL .460 .770 1.039 1.405 .312 .168 .327 -.157 -.040 -.817 -.277 -.240 .170 -.448 1999 NL .463 .779 1.050 1.399 .306 .154 .331 -.126 -.039 -.836 -.298 -.257 .194 -.443 2000 NL .469 .758 1.090 1.404 .324 .172 .351 -.170 -.020 -.862 -.300 -.258 .163 -.472 2001 NL .460 .784 1.067 1.369 .299 .154 .323 -.124 -.074 -.832 -.284 -.245 .191 -.450 2002 NL .439 .761 1.076 1.396 .283 .157 .319 -.120 .019 -.779 -.268 -.233 .184 -.418 2003 NL .457 .768 1.121 1.397 .304 .154 .329 -.137 -.045 -.817 -.282 -.244 .176 -.431 2004 NL .448 .770 1.078 1.394 .299 .152 .331 -.133 -.041 -.815 -.282 -.244 .177 -.434
I don't know about you, but I was surprised by the variability in the data, most especially with regard to the sacrifice fly. How could the same play have a value of +.130 runs in the 1965 American League and a value of -.149 in the 1999 AL? This seems counter-intuitive. The reason is that the value of trading outs for base advances, especially with regard to runners already in scoring position varies quite a bit from high-scoring to low-scoring eras. In addition, there is some fluctuation in the expected future run data, even with a sample size as large as an entire league season, especially in relatively rare situations. For example, here are the expected runs from two situations: one out with men on second and third, and two out with a man on second, in the American League from 1997 to 2002:
Year LG 1 -st 2 -s- Value 1997 AL 1.319 .337 .018 1998 AL 1.420 .335 -.085 1999 AL 1.577 .365 -.212 2000 AL 1.547 .331 -.216 2001 AL 1.408 .368 -.040 2002 AL 1.431 .332 -.099
Value is the benefit or cost of moving from the first state to the second (remember, a run must score for this transition to be possible). Notice that the first situation, the rarer men on second and third with one out state, has more variability than the more common second situation
Here is the same table for 1962 to 1967:
Year LG 1 -st 2 -s- Value 1963 AL 1.324 .314 .010 1964 AL 1.387 .325 -.062 1965 AL 1.136 .323 .187 1966 AL 1.280 .295 .015 1967 AL 1.319 .343 .024 1968 AL 1.142 .294 .152
While there is still quite a bit of variability in the data, the sacrifice fly during these years was much more variable than it was during the high-scoring years above.
Fortunately, we have play-by-play accounts for the overwhelming majority of games. The most games we are missing for any team is 23 for the 1968 Houston Astros, which means that even for our worst team, we still have play-by-play data for over 85% of their games. What follows is a table of all the leagues that are missing games along with the total games played, the games for which we are missing play-by-play data, the percentage of games with play-by-play data, and the number of games missed by each team in the league.
Year LG G Miss % Teams Missing Games 1962 AL 809 5 99.4 LA A(5) KC A(5) 1963 AL 808 4 99.5 BOS A(2) LA A(2) KC A(4)
Year LG G Miss % Teams Missing Games 1960 NL 619 7 98.9 MIL N(6) CHI N(1) PIT N(7) 1962 NL 812 15 98.2 MIL N(13) CHI N(5) PIT N(12) 1963 NL 811 14 98.3 MIL N(14) CIN N(6) PIT N(8) 1964 NL 812 9 98.9 MIL N(9) CHI N(2) PIT N(7) 1965 NL 813 20 97.5 MIL N(16) CHI N(4) PIT N(20) 1966 NL 809 19 97.7 ATL N(17) CHI N(5) PIT N(16) 1967 NL 810 18 97.8 ATL N(10) HOU N(10) PIT N(16) 1968 NL 813 34 95.8 ATL N(20) HOU N(23) LA N(3) PIT N(22) 1971 NL 972 15 98.5 ATL N(8) CIN N(3) HOU N(8) MON N(2) SD N(9) 1972 NL 930 4 99.6 ATL N(3) CIN N(1) HOU N(2) MON N(2) 1973 NL 971 8 99.2 ATL N(7) CIN N(1) HOU N(2) MON N(4) SD N(2)
I determined each player's unadjusted Value Added Batting Runs by applying the formula mentioned in the introduction to their plate appearances. This gave the batter credit for anything that happened whenever that batter either put the ball in play or struck out. So if a batter hit a ground-ball to short and the shortstop booted it, I gave the batter credit for reaching first. I felt that if I was going to penalize a batter for the bad things that happen when he put the ball in play (643 DPs, for example), I should give him credit for the good things as well. Otherwise, the cost of a player's outs could be misrepresented and those with high strikeout totals might look more valuable than they really were. I also felt that a player who consistently reached base on errors was probably more than partly responsible for this. (If interested, please see my article on the subject.) I also gave the batter credit for the good and bad deeds of his baserunners. When a runner went from first to third on a single to left, the batter was given credit. If the runner got thrown out at third, the batter got charged. This is probably a limitation in my approach, but it seemed unreasonable to give the runner credit for additional bases (since it might have been due to where the outfielders were forced to play the batter, or to the speed or the batter - since that single might have been a double for anyone else), and if I didn't credit the runners for successful risks on the basepaths, it didn't seem right to charge them for unsuccessful risks.
The basic approach (simply evaluating the effect of every batting play) gives us the following top 20 seasons of Value Added Batting Runs from 1960 to 2004:
Name Year Team AB H 2B 3B HR BB OPS VABR
Barry Bonds 2004 SF N 373 135 27 3 45 232 1.422 123.2
Barry Bonds 2001 SF N 476 156 32 2 73 177 1.379 114.7
Barry Bonds 2002 SF N 403 149 31 2 46 198 1.381 113.7
Todd Helton 2000 COL N 580 216 59 2 42 103 1.162 99.8
Mark McGwire 1998 STL N 509 152 21 0 70 162 1.222 93.0
Barry Bonds 1996 SF N 517 159 27 3 42 151 1.076 91.8
Jason Giambi 2000 OAK A 510 170 29 1 43 137 1.123 91.2
Mickey Mantle 1961 NY A 514 163 16 6 54 126 1.135 91.0
Norm Cash 1961 DET A 535 193 22 8 41 124 1.148 89.5
Carl Yastrzemski 1967 BOS A 579 189 31 4 44 91 1.040 87.9
Sammy Sosa 2001 CHI N 577 189 34 5 64 116 1.174 87.5
Carlos Delgado 2000 TOR A 569 196 57 1 41 123 1.134 85.8
Larry Walker 1997 COL N 568 208 46 4 49 78 1.172 85.4
Harmon Killebrew 1969 MIN A 555 153 20 2 49 145 1.011 85.3
Jason Giambi 2001 OAK A 520 178 47 2 38 129 1.137 85.1
Willie McCovey 1969 SF N 491 157 26 2 45 121 1.108 85.0
Joe Morgan 1976 CIN N 472 151 30 5 27 114 1.020 83.7
Hank Aaron 1963 MIL N 631 201 29 4 44 78 .977 82.1
Edgar Martinez 1995 SEA A 511 182 52 0 29 116 1.107 81.9
Barry Bonds 1993 SF N 539 181 38 4 46 126 1.136 81.6
Where: AB - at bats H - hits 2B - doubles
3B - triples HR - home runs BB - walks
OPS - on-base plus slugging percentage.
VABR - Value Added Batting Runs
A big turnover from the last time I did this, since only five of these seasons come from 1980 to 1998. One strange thing is the appearance of five seasons from the 1960s and only one from the 1970s and 1980s. And not too surprisingly, Barry Bonds dominates the list, with 5 entries.
The worst hitters over this period:
Name Year Team AB H 2B 3B HR BB OPS VABR Neifi Perez 2002 KC A 554 131 20 4 3 20 .564 -51.4 Scott Brosius 1997 OAK A 479 97 20 1 11 34 .576 -50.9 Mario Mendoza 1979 SEA A 373 74 10 3 1 9 .466 -48.9 Mike Caruso 1999 CHI A 529 132 11 4 2 20 .577 -47.7 George Wright 1985 TEX A 363 69 13 0 2 25 .483 -47.6 Hal Lanier 1968 SF N 486 100 14 1 0 12 .461 -44.6 Rob Picciolo 1977 OAK A 419 84 12 3 2 9 .475 -43.4 John Flaherty 1998 TB A 304 63 11 0 3 22 .534 -43.1 Chris Truby 2002 MON-DET 382 82 18 4 4 10 .552 -43.1 Tommy Helms 1970 CIN N 575 136 21 1 1 21 .543 -43.0
Notice that this list is also dominated by recent hitters. This makes sense. When a lot of runs are being scored in a given year, the cost of an out goes up as well. Compare the 1992 AL expected future runs table at the beginning of the article with the one from 1998:
MenOn Number of Outs
FST 0 1 2
--- .561 .303 .112
x-- .961 .590 .247
-x- 1.226 .732 .335
xx- 1.578 1.006 .471
--x 1.440 .959 .378
x-x 1.769 1.270 .578
-xx 2.022 1.420 .620
xxx 2.305 1.643 .815
A leadoff strikeout in 1992 cost a team -.224 runs (.258 - .482). In 1998, a similar at-bat would cost -.258 runs (.303 - .561), or 15% more.
Notice that 2 of the top 20 seasons were produced by hitters on the Colorado Rockies. So to this basic figure, perhaps we need to make a ballpark adjustment. For each park, I calculated the number of runs scored per 9 innings in the team's home games and divided that by the runs scored per 9 innings in their away games.
The complete single-year park data is here.
Since a lot of variability in park factors from year-to-year seem to be due to relatively small samples sizes, I averaged each park factor over a three year period (giving double weight to the middle year).
The complete averaged park data is here.
These are going to be about twice the distance from 1.00 as most other park factors because the others attempt to account for the fact that half of each team's games are played in other parks. Instead of this, I calculated individual park factors for each player by applying the appropriate factor to each of his plate appearances. For example, if Dante Bichette got up 8 times in 1994 in Mile High Stadium and 2 times in Three Rivers, his park factor would be:
( ( 8 * 1.398 ) + ( 2 * 1.028 ) ) / 10 = 1.324
Where: 1.398 is the park factor for Mile High Stadium
1.028 is the park factor for Three Rivers Stadium
One technical note: the Value Added Runs Created listed in my charts are actually the number of runs created above average. In order to apply park factors, these runs have to be converted to total runs created. Gary Skoog has an interesting discussion on the ways to go about doing this in his article in the 1987 Bill James Baseball Abstract. The method I decided upon was to allocate the average (or slightly less than average) number of runs across each team's batters based upon their plate appearances. I added this adjustment to the runs above average, divided by the park factor, and then subtracted out the adjustment.
After I did this, I came up with the following list of top park-adjusted seasons:
Name Year Team AB H 2B 3B HR BB OPS VABR IPF A/BPF
Barry Bonds 2001 SF N 476 156 32 2 73 177 1.379 114.7 .932 129.0
Barry Bonds 2002 SF N 403 149 31 2 46 198 1.381 113.7 .957 121.9
Barry Bonds 2004 SF N 373 135 27 3 45 232 1.422 123.2 1.039 115.9
Barry Bonds 1996 SF N 517 159 27 3 42 151 1.076 91.8 .965 98.2
Mickey Mantle 1961 NY A 514 163 16 6 54 126 1.135 91.0 .960 97.9
Jason Giambi 2000 OAK A 510 170 29 1 43 137 1.123 91.2 .974 96.1
Mark McGwire 1998 STL N 509 152 21 0 70 162 1.222 93.0 .992 94.5
Sammy Sosa 2001 CHI N 577 189 34 5 64 116 1.174 87.5 .966 93.6
Barry Bonds 1993 SF N 539 181 38 4 46 126 1.136 81.6 .968 87.0
Jason Giambi 2001 OAK A 520 178 47 2 38 129 1.137 85.1 .989 86.9
Norm Cash 1961 DET A 535 193 22 8 41 124 1.148 89.5 1.018 86.6
Willie McCovey 1969 SF N 491 157 26 2 45 121 1.108 85.0 .993 86.1
Tony Gwynn 1997 SD N 592 220 49 2 17 43 .957 71.6 .933 82.3
Barry Bonds 2003 SF N 390 133 22 1 45 148 1.278 78.9 .979 82.1
Gary Sheffield 1996 FLA N 519 163 33 1 42 142 1.090 76.9 .969 82.1
Hank Aaron 1963 MIL N 631 201 29 4 44 78 .977 82.1 1.001 82.0
Jim Gentile 1961 BAL A 486 147 25 2 46 96 1.069 76.7 .975 80.5
Reggie Jackson 1969 OAK A 549 151 36 3 47 114 1.018 70.9 .938 80.4
Mickey Mantle 1962 NY A 377 121 15 1 30 122 1.091 75.1 .962 80.3
Edgar Martinez 1995 SEA A 511 182 52 0 29 116 1.107 81.9 1.010 80.2
Where: IPF - individual park factor;
A/BPF - value added runs adjusted by the ballpark factor.
Notice that both of the seasons by Colorado Rockies players are no longer on the list. Here are the top offensive seasons by members of Colorado, along with their ranking before and after the ballpark adjustment:
Name Year AB H 2B 3B HR BB OPS VABR IPF A/BPF BEF AFT
Todd Helton 2000 580 216 59 2 42 103 1.162 99.8 1.292 57.2 4 145
Larry Walker 1997 568 208 46 4 49 78 1.172 85.4 1.241 53.4 13 188
Todd Helton 2003 583 209 49 5 33 111 1.088 78.2 1.155 56.5 23 152
Todd Helton 2001 587 197 54 2 49 98 1.116 75.1 1.235 44.6 30 386
Todd Helton 2004 547 190 49 2 32 127 1.088 69.0 1.176 46.4 57 330
Larry Walker 2001 497 174 35 3 38 82 1.111 68.4 1.234 41.5 61 488
Larry Walker 1999 438 166 26 4 37 57 1.168 67.4 1.306 36.4 66 727
Andres Galarraga 1996 626 190 39 3 47 40 .958 65.2 1.298 31.1 78 1018
Larry Walker 2002 477 161 40 4 26 65 1.023 60.3 1.188 40.7 115 516
Todd Helton 2002 553 182 39 4 30 99 1.006 58.8 1.188 37.3 130 685
Where: BEF - the ranking before the ballpark adjustment
AFT - the ranking after
So they went from having 8 of the 80 best seasons to not having a single player in the top 100.
The league leaders each year in park-adjusted batting runs:
Name Year Team AB H 2B 3B HR BB OPS VABR IPF A/BPF Roger Maris 1960 NY A 499 141 18 7 39 70 .952 53.4 .934 61.8 Mickey Mantle 1961 NY A 514 163 16 6 54 126 1.135 91.0 .960 97.9 Mickey Mantle 1962 NY A 377 121 15 1 30 122 1.091 75.1 .962 80.3 Al Kaline 1963 DET A 551 172 24 3 27 54 .889 53.2 1.041 48.6 Mickey Mantle 1964 NY A 465 141 25 2 35 99 1.015 67.3 1.009 66.2 Tony Oliva 1965 MIN A 576 185 40 5 16 55 .870 50.0 1.033 46.2 Frank Robinson 1966 BAL A 576 182 34 2 49 87 1.047 74.7 .993 75.7 Carl Yastrzemski 1967 BOS A 579 189 31 4 44 91 1.040 87.9 1.117 71.6 Frank Howard 1968 WAS A 598 164 28 3 44 54 .890 46.4 .966 50.2 Reggie Jackson 1969 OAK A 549 151 36 3 47 114 1.018 70.9 .938 80.4 Frank Howard 1970 WAS A 566 160 15 1 44 132 .962 64.6 .959 70.6 Bobby Murcer 1971 NY A 529 175 25 6 25 91 .969 62.7 .957 68.3 Dick Allen 1972 CHI A 506 156 28 5 37 99 1.023 75.8 1.030 71.9 Reggie Jackson 1973 OAK A 539 158 28 2 32 76 .914 54.9 .930 64.2 Jeff Burroughs 1974 TEX A 554 167 33 2 25 91 .901 50.9 .981 53.3 Fred Lynn 1975 BOS A 528 175 47 7 21 62 .967 58.2 1.101 46.6 Rod Carew 1976 MIN A 605 200 29 12 9 67 .858 46.7 1.021 44.3 Rod Carew 1977 MIN A 616 239 38 16 14 69 1.019 74.6 1.009 73.1 Jim Rice 1978 BOS A 677 213 25 15 46 58 .970 60.4 1.108 46.5 Fred Lynn 1979 BOS A 531 177 42 1 39 82 1.059 61.9 1.072 52.6 George Brett 1980 KC A 449 175 33 9 24 58 1.118 72.7 .996 73.2 Dwight Evans 1981 BOS A 412 122 19 4 22 85 .937 38.6 1.069 32.5 Robin Yount 1982 MIL A 635 210 46 12 29 54 .957 53.5 .948 61.0 Eddie Murray 1983 BAL A 582 178 30 3 33 86 .930 53.1 .988 54.7 Eddie Murray 1984 BAL A 588 180 26 3 29 107 .918 55.1 .966 59.9 George Brett 1985 KC A 550 184 38 5 30 103 1.022 59.5 .997 60.0 Wade Boggs 1986 BOS A 580 207 47 2 8 105 .939 58.6 1.002 58.4 Dwight Evans 1987 BOS A 541 165 37 2 34 106 .986 54.5 1.018 52.0 Jose Canseco 1988 OAK A 610 187 34 0 42 78 .959 49.9 .963 55.0 Robin Yount 1989 MIL A 614 195 38 9 21 63 .896 45.7 .978 48.4 Rickey Henderson 1990 OAK A 489 159 33 3 28 97 1.016 42.7 .943 49.3 Frank Thomas 1991 CHI A 559 178 31 2 32 138 1.006 59.6 .988 61.3 Frank Thomas 1992 CHI A 573 185 46 2 24 122 .975 59.5 .980 62.3 Frank Thomas 1993 CHI A 549 174 36 0 41 112 1.033 66.1 .986 68.1 Frank Thomas 1994 CHI A 399 141 34 1 38 109 1.217 63.2 .980 65.9 Edgar Martinez 1995 SEA A 511 182 52 0 29 116 1.107 81.9 1.010 80.2 Frank Thomas 1996 CHI A 527 184 26 0 40 109 1.085 60.6 .953 68.0 Frank Thomas 1997 CHI A 530 184 35 0 35 109 1.067 72.0 .975 75.9 Albert Belle 1998 CHI A 609 200 48 2 49 81 1.055 59.9 1.001 59.7 Manny Ramirez 1999 CLE A 522 174 34 3 44 96 1.105 76.2 1.037 70.4 Jason Giambi 2000 OAK A 510 170 29 1 43 137 1.123 91.2 .974 96.1 Jason Giambi 2001 OAK A 520 178 47 2 38 129 1.137 85.1 .989 86.9 Jim Thome 2002 CLE A 480 146 19 2 52 122 1.122 69.0 .999 69.1 Carlos Delgado 2003 TOR A 570 172 38 1 42 109 1.019 68.7 1.037 63.1 Travis Hafner 2004 CLE A 482 150 41 3 28 68 .993 42.5 .964 46.8
Name Year Team AB H 2B 3B HR BB OPS VABR IPF A/BPF Eddie Mathews 1960 MIL N 548 152 19 7 39 111 .948 68.1 .928 79.0 Willie Mays 1961 SF N 572 176 32 3 40 81 .977 64.8 .984 67.2 Frank Robinson 1962 CIN N 609 208 51 2 39 76 1.045 73.3 1.030 68.8 Hank Aaron 1963 MIL N 631 201 29 4 44 78 .977 82.1 1.001 82.0 Willie Mays 1964 SF N 578 171 21 9 47 82 .990 64.5 1.008 63.4 Willie Mays 1965 SF N 558 177 21 3 52 76 1.043 57.6 1.050 51.6 Dick Allen 1966 PHI N 524 166 25 10 40 68 1.027 64.1 1.002 63.9 Roberto Clemente 1967 PIT N 585 209 26 10 23 41 .954 70.6 1.004 70.0 Willie McCovey 1968 SF N 523 153 16 4 36 72 .923 54.3 .996 54.7 Willie McCovey 1969 SF N 491 157 26 2 45 121 1.108 85.0 .993 86.1 Willie McCovey 1970 SF N 495 143 39 2 39 137 1.056 66.1 .996 66.6 Willie Stargell 1971 PIT N 511 151 26 0 48 83 1.026 72.5 1.021 69.7 Joe Morgan 1972 CIN N 552 161 23 4 16 115 .851 68.3 .941 76.9 Willie Stargell 1973 PIT N 522 156 43 3 44 80 1.038 65.4 .966 70.0 Richie Zisk 1974 PIT N 536 168 30 3 17 65 .862 51.7 .968 55.5 Joe Morgan 1975 CIN N 498 163 27 6 17 132 .974 72.3 1.013 70.5 Joe Morgan 1976 CIN N 472 151 30 5 27 114 1.020 83.7 1.028 79.7 Greg Luzinski 1977 PHI N 554 171 35 3 39 80 .988 62.5 1.034 58.0 Dave Parker 1978 PIT N 581 194 32 12 30 57 .979 66.4 1.059 58.9 Dave Winfield 1979 SD N 597 184 27 10 34 85 .953 57.7 .935 67.0 Mike Schmidt 1980 PHI N 548 157 25 8 48 89 1.004 52.6 1.070 44.7 Mike Schmidt 1981 PHI N 354 112 19 2 31 73 1.080 53.4 1.075 46.6 Pedro Guerrero 1982 LA N 575 175 27 5 32 65 .914 43.9 .959 48.7 Jose Cruz 1983 HOU N 594 189 28 8 14 65 .848 45.4 .926 54.7 Jose Cruz 1984 HOU N 600 187 28 13 12 73 .842 44.5 .931 53.3 Pedro Guerrero 1985 LA N 487 156 22 2 33 83 .999 47.5 .934 55.2 Mike Schmidt 1986 PHI N 552 160 29 1 37 89 .937 53.2 1.051 47.2 D. Strawberry 1987 NY N 532 151 32 5 39 97 .981 62.8 .960 68.6 D. Strawberry 1988 NY N 543 146 27 3 39 85 .911 42.9 .939 49.9 Will Clark 1989 SF N 588 196 38 9 23 74 .953 70.0 .973 74.0 Barry Bonds 1990 PIT N 519 156 32 3 33 93 .970 57.7 .969 61.7 Barry Bonds 1991 PIT N 510 149 28 5 25 107 .924 62.4 .982 64.8 Barry Bonds 1992 PIT N 473 147 36 5 34 127 1.080 68.8 .991 70.0 Barry Bonds 1993 SF N 539 181 38 4 46 126 1.136 81.6 .968 87.0 Jeff Bagwell 1994 HOU N 400 147 32 2 39 65 1.201 62.8 .947 69.6 Barry Bonds 1995 SF N 506 149 30 7 33 120 1.009 57.6 .977 60.8 Barry Bonds 1996 SF N 517 159 27 3 42 151 1.076 91.8 .965 98.2 Tony Gwynn 1997 SD N 592 220 49 2 17 43 .957 71.6 .933 82.3 Mark McGwire 1998 STL N 509 152 21 0 70 162 1.222 93.0 .992 94.5 Jeff Bagwell 1999 HOU N 562 171 35 0 42 149 1.045 69.2 .963 75.3 Jeff Kent 2000 SF N 587 196 41 7 33 90 1.021 64.7 .938 74.8 Barry Bonds 2001 SF N 476 156 32 2 73 177 1.379 114.7 .932 129.0 Barry Bonds 2002 SF N 403 149 31 2 46 198 1.381 113.7 .957 121.9 Barry Bonds 2003 SF N 390 133 22 1 45 148 1.278 78.9 .979 82.1 Barry Bonds 2004 SF N 373 135 27 3 45 232 1.422 123.2 1.039 115.9
The league trailers each year in park-adjusted batting runs:
Name Year Team AB H 2B 3B HR BB OPS VABR IPF A/BPF Ken Hamlin 1960 KC A 428 96 10 2 2 44 .568 -27.5 1.007 -27.7 Ron Hansen 1961 BAL A 533 132 13 2 12 66 .677 -25.7 .971 -24.3 Luis Aparicio 1962 CHI A 581 140 23 5 7 32 .614 -32.0 .970 -30.8 Jerry Adair 1963 BAL A 382 87 21 3 6 9 .592 -28.4 .943 -27.5 J.C. Martin 1964 CHI A 294 58 10 1 4 16 .520 -24.1 .933 -23.4 Ed Brinkman 1965 WAS A 444 82 13 2 5 38 .508 -24.3 .996 -24.2 Ed Brinkman 1966 WAS A 582 133 18 9 7 29 .589 -20.9 .991 -20.5 Jerry Zimmerman 1967 MIN A 234 39 3 0 1 22 .436 -23.5 1.072 -23.7 Mark Belanger 1968 BAL A 472 98 13 0 2 40 .520 -34.0 1.003 -34.0 Aur. Rodriguez 1969 CAL A 561 130 17 2 7 32 .579 -25.1 .956 -23.2 Horace Clarke 1970 NY A 686 172 24 2 4 35 .595 -41.1 .952 -39.2 Gene Michael 1971 NY A 456 102 15 0 3 48 .576 -30.6 .965 -29.8 Rick Auerbach 1972 MIL A 554 121 16 3 2 43 .546 -22.2 .982 -21.5 Tim Johnson 1973 MIL A 465 99 10 2 0 29 .502 -29.7 .974 -29.0 Deron Johnson 1974 3 Teams 351 60 4 2 13 32 .542 -30.1 .974 -29.8 Paul Blair 1975 BAL A 440 96 13 4 5 25 .557 -28.7 .911 -26.2 Paul Blair 1976 BAL A 375 74 16 0 3 22 .509 -33.1 .952 -32.6 Rob Picciolo 1977 OAK A 419 84 12 3 2 9 .475 -43.4 .969 -43.1 Bert Campaneris 1978 TEX A 269 50 5 3 1 20 .483 -27.0 .985 -26.9 Mario Mendoza 1979 SEA A 373 74 10 3 1 9 .466 -48.9 1.029 -48.9 Alfredo Griffin 1980 TOR A 653 166 26 15 2 24 .632 -30.5 1.048 -32.8 Alfredo Griffin 1981 TOR A 388 81 19 6 0 17 .531 -22.9 1.077 -24.4 Alfredo Griffin 1982 TOR A 539 130 20 8 1 22 .583 -29.1 1.096 -32.5 Rich Dauer 1983 BAL A 459 108 19 0 5 47 .615 -30.6 .986 -30.2 Bob Boone 1984 CAL A 450 91 16 1 3 25 .504 -42.2 1.002 -42.2 George Wright 1985 TEX A 363 69 13 0 2 25 .483 -47.6 1.033 -47.6 Tim Hulett 1986 CHI A 520 120 16 5 17 21 .639 -35.4 1.033 -36.4 Angel Salazar 1987 KC A 317 65 7 0 2 6 .465 -39.5 1.019 -39.5 Billy Ripken 1988 BAL A 512 106 18 1 2 33 .518 -35.9 .972 -35.1 Ozzie Guillen 1989 CHI A 597 151 20 8 1 15 .588 -35.7 .972 -34.7 Alvaro Espinoza 1990 NY A 438 98 12 2 2 16 .532 -35.4 1.002 -35.4 Billy Ripken 1991 BAL A 287 62 11 1 0 15 .515 -30.4 .978 -30.2 Steve Sax 1992 CHI A 567 134 26 4 4 43 .607 -33.2 .980 -32.4 Tony Pena 1993 BOS A 304 55 11 0 4 25 .502 -39.2 1.075 -39.4 Dan Wilson 1994 SEA A 282 61 14 2 3 10 .556 -30.8 1.027 -31.0 Damion Easley 1995 CAL A 357 77 14 2 4 32 .588 -33.7 .989 -33.5 Gary Disarcina 1996 CAL A 536 137 26 4 5 21 .633 -42.1 .997 -42.0 Scott Brosius 1997 OAK A 479 97 20 1 11 34 .576 -50.9 1.004 -51.0 John Flaherty 1998 TB A 304 63 11 0 3 22 .534 -43.1 1.034 -43.1 Mike Caruso 1999 CHI A 529 132 11 4 2 20 .577 -47.7 1.011 -48.0 Royce Clayton 2000 TEX A 513 124 21 5 14 42 .685 -34.3 1.034 -35.8 Shea Hillenbrand 2001 BOS A 468 123 20 2 12 13 .682 -27.7 1.011 -28.1 Neifi Perez 2002 KC A 554 131 20 4 3 20 .564 -51.4 1.132 -54.0 Brandon Phillips 2003 CLE A 370 77 18 1 6 14 .553 -33.9 .985 -33.6 Scott Spiezio 2004 SEA A 367 79 12 3 10 36 .634 -27.0 .954 -25.7
Name Year Team AB H 2B 3B HR BB OPS VABR IPF A/BPF Julian Javier 1960 STL N 451 107 19 8 4 21 .614 -25.9 1.094 -28.4 Jerry Zimmerman 1961 CIN N 204 42 5 0 0 11 .483 -23.9 1.020 -24.0 Bobby Wine 1962 PHI N 311 76 15 0 4 11 .599 -31.8 .957 -31.5 Bob Lillis 1963 HOU N 469 93 13 1 1 15 .466 -36.1 .947 -35.2 Roy McMillan 1964 MLN-NYN 392 84 8 2 1 14 .500 -22.4 .986 -22.1 Glenn Beckert 1965 CHI N 614 147 21 3 3 28 .573 -27.3 1.041 -29.0 Hal Lanier 1966 SF N 459 106 14 2 3 16 .546 -25.5 1.018 -26.0 Hal Lanier 1967 SF N 525 112 16 3 0 16 .494 -28.9 .993 -28.7 Hal Lanier 1968 SF N 486 100 14 1 0 12 .461 -44.6 1.000 -44.6 Hal Lanier 1969 SF N 495 113 9 1 0 25 .514 -38.1 1.000 -38.1 Tommy Helms 1970 CIN N 575 136 21 1 1 21 .543 -43.0 1.007 -43.2 Bobby Wine 1971 MON N 340 68 9 0 1 25 .489 -31.1 1.014 -31.2 Marty Perez 1972 ATL N 479 109 13 1 1 30 .541 -26.5 1.073 -28.3 Tim Foli 1973 MON N 458 110 11 0 2 28 .561 -33.4 1.060 -34.6 Dave Roberts 1974 SD N 318 53 10 1 5 32 .497 -29.9 .970 -29.6 Tim Foli 1975 MON N 572 136 25 2 1 36 .578 -30.0 1.069 -32.5 Randy Jones 1976 SD N 103 6 0 0 0 5 .160 -22.8 .915 -23.7 Jerry Royster 1977 ATL N 445 96 10 2 6 38 .566 -31.5 1.162 -34.9 Ted Sizemore 1978 PHI N 351 77 12 0 0 25 .523 -30.9 1.024 -31.1 Ozzie Smith 1979 SD N 587 124 18 6 0 37 .522 -30.2 .934 -27.3 Omar Moreno 1980 PIT N 676 168 20 13 2 57 .631 -24.2 1.033 -26.0 Doug Flynn 1981 NY N 325 72 12 4 1 11 .539 -23.7 1.006 -23.7 Johnnie LeMaster 1982 SF N 436 94 14 1 2 31 .533 -27.7 .978 -27.1 Doug Flynn 1983 MON N 452 107 18 4 0 19 .561 -32.3 .993 -32.1 Ron Oester 1984 CIN N 553 134 26 3 3 41 .612 -22.0 1.054 -24.2 Rafael Santana 1985 NY N 529 136 19 1 1 29 .597 -27.7 .978 -27.0 Rafael Ramirez 1986 ATL N 496 119 21 1 8 21 .608 -35.8 1.048 -36.8 Glenn Wilson 1987 PHI N 569 150 21 2 14 38 .689 -20.6 1.046 -22.8 Benito Santiago 1988 SD N 492 122 22 2 10 24 .643 -25.7 .990 -25.4 John Shelby 1989 LA N 345 63 11 1 1 25 .466 -29.5 .972 -29.2 Alfredo Griffin 1990 LA N 461 97 11 3 1 29 .512 -25.6 .972 -24.7 Andres Galarraga 1991 MON N 375 82 13 2 9 23 .604 -19.7 .961 -18.8 Jose Lind 1992 PIT N 468 110 14 1 0 26 .544 -25.5 .987 -25.1 Jeff Branson 1993 CIN N 381 92 15 1 3 19 .584 -28.2 1.008 -28.4 Kurt Abbott 1994 FLA N 345 86 17 3 9 16 .685 -18.5 1.061 -20.0 Kevin Stocker 1995 PHI N 412 90 14 3 1 43 .578 -29.9 1.016 -30.3 Rey Ordonez 1996 NY N 502 129 12 4 1 22 .592 -31.4 .962 -30.1 Rey Ordonez 1997 NY N 356 77 5 3 1 18 .510 -28.2 .942 -27.1 Neifi Perez 1998 COL N 647 177 25 9 9 38 .695 -24.5 1.252 -36.5 Eli Marrero 1999 STL N 317 61 13 1 6 18 .533 -35.2 .975 -35.0 Doug Glanville 2000 PHI N 637 175 27 6 8 31 .681 -34.2 .994 -33.9 Brad Ausmus 2001 HOU N 422 98 23 4 5 30 .625 -35.5 1.055 -36.6 Vinny Castilla 2002 ATL N 543 126 23 2 12 22 .616 -31.2 1.004 -31.4 Jose Hernandez 2003 3 Teams 519 117 18 3 13 46 .634 -38.0 1.073 -40.1 Chad Moeller 2004 MIL N 317 66 13 1 5 21 .568 -31.4 1.008 -31.4
The only players to trail their league more than twice were Hal Lanier and Alfredo Griffin, who both did it 4 times.
Here are the top career marks in park-adjusted batting runs:
Name AB H 2B 3B HR BB OPS VABR IPF A/BPF Barry Bonds 9098 2730 563 77 703 2302 1.053 1172.6 .973 1247.4 Hank Aaron 8840 2634 419 52 576 1121 .927 746.1 1.010 729.0 i Jeff Bagwell 7697 2289 484 32 446 1383 .951 646.0 .987 674.9 Frank Thomas 6851 2113 444 11 436 1450 .996 663.6 .998 672.4 Frank Robinson 7729 2263 416 51 452 1181 .928 660.0 1.001 657.1 i Joe Morgan 9277 2517 449 96 268 1865 .819 582.9 .973 629.2 Willie McCovey 8005 2143 344 41 508 1323 .884 597.0 .994 604.3 i Reggie Jackson 9864 2584 463 49 563 1375 .846 531.7 .966 598.6 Mark McGwire 6187 1626 252 6 583 1317 .982 549.5 .967 597.0 Willie Mays 6807 1992 319 61 410 959 .918 576.2 .994 585.5 i Willie Stargell 7927 2232 423 55 475 937 .889 585.6 1.002 583.4 Rickey Henderson 10961 3055 510 66 297 2190 .820 485.5 .957 581.3 Gary Sheffield 7302 2175 386 24 415 1202 .928 548.8 .983 580.5 Mike Schmidt 8352 2234 408 59 548 1507 .908 620.9 1.035 560.9 Tony Gwynn 9288 3141 543 85 135 790 .847 476.0 .979 517.6 Edgar Martinez 7213 2247 514 15 309 1283 .933 498.9 .993 513.0 Harmon Killebrew 7347 1897 264 22 520 1446 .892 568.1 1.038 511.3 i Eddie Murray 11336 3255 560 35 504 1333 .836 463.4 .977 509.7 Carl Yastrzemski 11988 3419 646 59 452 1845 .841 680.1 1.086 505.9 George Brett 10349 3154 665 137 317 1096 .857 512.0 1.010 497.9 i - incomplete
Admittedly, Hank Aaron and several others are not completely represented here (since the data starts in 1960), but it is interesting to note that the gap between Barry Bonds and Hank Aaron is greater than the gap between Hank Aaron and Mike Hargrove, who is in 140th place.
The players at the bottom of the list:
Name AB H 2B 3B HR BB OPS VABR IPF A/BPF Larry Bowa 8418 2191 262 99 15 474 .620 -259.2 1.040 -287.2 Ozzie Guillen 6686 1764 275 69 28 239 .626 -291.8 .990 -286.5 Alfredo Griffin 6780 1688 245 78 24 338 .604 -280.6 1.005 -277.7 Tim Foli 6047 1515 241 20 25 265 .593 -245.0 1.031 -259.0 Ed Brinkman 6045 1355 201 38 60 444 .580 -251.5 1.008 -254.9 Hal Lanier 3703 843 111 20 8 136 .529 -243.8 1.007 -245.9 Royce Clayton 6208 1598 291 50 105 483 .684 -220.2 1.013 -230.2 Aur. Rodriguez 6611 1570 287 46 124 324 .626 -220.2 1.019 -230.0 Doug Flynn 3853 918 115 39 7 151 .560 -227.6 .981 -224.1 Rey Sanchez 4807 1305 192 32 15 227 .642 -218.2 1.011 -222.7 Neifi Perez 4190 1129 188 59 52 201 .681 -150.6 1.203 -222.4 Mark Belanger 5784 1316 175 33 20 576 .580 -228.0 .973 -213.9 Don Kessinger 7651 1931 254 80 14 684 .626 -154.7 1.076 -208.8 Don Sutton 1354 195 15 1 0 60 .340 -202.3 .947 -203.7 Gary Disarcina 3744 966 186 20 28 154 .633 -192.1 1.010 -195.0 Bobby Wine 3172 682 104 16 30 214 .550 -186.5 1.004 -187.5 Phil Niekro 1537 260 42 1 7 17 .395 -186.9 1.058 -186.7 Bob Boone 7245 1838 303 26 105 663 .661 -173.0 1.016 -184.4 Greg Maddux 1330 235 31 2 4 30 .410 -183.1 1.025 -183.0 Mike Bordick 5770 1500 257 30 91 500 .685 -202.5 .965 -180.4
In addition to being represented by three pitchers, the "worst" list is dominated by middle-infielders. Since the offensive demands of all positions are not equal, I next experimented with adjusting these totals for the positions played by the players. Pete Palmer makes a similar adjustment with his Batting Runs to address the relative worth to a team of a player's defensive position. I first determined the average value of each batting event by defensive position. As with the ball-park factors, I averaged these over three seasons.
The complete single-year position data is here.
The complete adjusted position data is here.
A common complaint about my methodology is that it seems to reward a player in the American League for not playing any position at all. The DH seldom has the highest offensive value and this bothers people who see this as a "reward" for not playing first base or left field - positions that often carry a higher defensive "penalty" than the DH. This may not seem fair, but I do believe it is accurate. If the best hitters don't typically occupy the DH slot, I think it's incorrect to pretend they do by artificially boosting the offensive value of that position. In the good old days before the DH, pinch-hitting was considered to be a difficult skill and one-dimensional players like Smoky Burgess were kept on roster because of their ability to come off a bench cold and hit well. Players today often complain about the difficulty of hitting as a DH. Prior to the 1998 season, Rob Neyer noted in his ESPN column that Frank Thomas had hit much worse over the course of his career in games he DHed than in games he played first base. Shortly after that column, Rob backed off on this claim a bit, conceding that Thomas may have been playing hurt during the games he wasn't able to take his position in the field, but Frank's performance through 1998 and 1999 might indicate that Rob was correct the first time and perhaps it's not inappropriate to reward those players who can hit productively as a DH.
Here's what the position adjustments do to the list of best hitters:
Name Year Team POS AB H 2B 3B HR BB OPS A/BPF A/POS Barry Bonds 2001 SF N LF 476 156 32 2 73 177 1.379 129.0 108.2 Barry Bonds 2002 SF N LF 403 149 31 2 46 198 1.381 121.9 102.0 Barry Bonds 2004 SF N LF 373 135 27 3 45 232 1.422 115.9 96.4 Mickey Mantle 1961 NY A CF 514 163 16 6 54 126 1.135 97.9 85.9 Alex Rodriguez 1996 SEA A SS 601 215 54 1 36 59 1.045 64.6 81.4 Joe Morgan 1976 CIN N 2B 472 151 30 5 27 114 1.020 79.7 80.7 Alex Rodriguez 2000 SEA A SS 554 175 34 2 41 100 1.026 74.0 79.5 Barry Bonds 1996 SF N LF 517 159 27 3 42 151 1.076 98.2 79.3 Jason Giambi 2000 OAK A 1B 510 170 29 1 43 137 1.123 96.1 77.8 Mike Piazza 1997 LA N C 556 201 32 1 40 69 1.070 78.5 77.7 Joe Morgan 1972 CIN N 2B 552 161 23 4 16 115 .851 76.9 77.4 Barry Bonds 1993 SF N LF 539 181 38 4 46 126 1.136 87.0 74.2 Robin Yount 1982 MIL A SS 635 210 46 12 29 54 .957 61.0 73.7 George Brett 1980 KC A 3B 449 175 33 9 24 58 1.118 73.2 72.2 Sammy Sosa 2001 CHI N RF 577 189 34 5 64 116 1.174 93.6 71.3 Joe Morgan 1975 CIN N 2B 498 163 27 6 17 132 .974 70.5 71.1 Jeff Kent 2000 SF N 2B 587 196 41 7 33 90 1.021 74.8 71.1 Mickey Mantle 1962 NY A CF 377 121 15 1 30 122 1.091 80.3 70.1 Mark McGwire 1998 STL N 1B 509 152 21 0 70 162 1.222 94.5 69.0 Derek Jeter 1999 NY A SS 627 219 37 9 24 91 .989 59.7 68.5 Where: A/POS - value added runs adjusted by ballpark factor and position.
The list of the worst hitters after the position adjustment:
Name Year Team POS AB H 2B 3B HR BB OPS A/BPF A/POS Neifi Perez 2002 KC A SS 554 131 20 4 3 20 .564 -54.0 -51.0 George Wright 1985 TEX A RF 363 69 13 0 2 25 .483 -47.6 -50.5 Scott Brosius 1997 OAK A 3B 479 97 20 1 11 34 .576 -51.0 -48.7 Bill Virdon 1962 PIT N CF 663 164 27 10 6 36 .631 -29.6 -45.4 J.T. Snow 1996 CAL A 1B 575 148 20 1 17 56 .711 -22.7 -44.6 Derek Bell 1999 HOU N RF 509 120 22 0 12 50 .656 -27.4 -43.1 Chris Truby 2002 MON-DET 3B 382 82 18 4 4 10 .552 -43.0 -42.8 Mike Caruso 1999 CHI A SS 529 132 11 4 2 20 .577 -48.0 -41.3 Darin Erstad 1999 ANA A 1B-LF 585 148 22 5 13 47 .683 -31.3 -41.2 Brian Hunter 1999 DET-SEA LF 539 125 13 6 4 37 .581 -37.8 -40.3
And the league leaders:
Name Year Team POS AB H 2B 3B HR BB OPS A/BPF A/POS Mickey Mantle 1960 NY A CF 527 145 17 6 40 111 .957 59.5 50.0 Mickey Mantle 1961 NY A CF 514 163 16 6 54 126 1.135 97.9 85.9 Mickey Mantle 1962 NY A CF 377 121 15 1 30 122 1.091 80.3 70.1 Earl Battey 1963 MIN A C 508 145 17 1 26 61 .845 30.1 30.6 Mickey Mantle 1964 NY A CF 465 141 25 2 35 99 1.015 66.2 58.4 Don Buford 1965 CHI A 2B 586 166 22 5 10 67 .747 27.8 33.2 Frank Robinson 1966 BAL A RF 576 182 34 2 49 87 1.047 75.7 58.3 Carl Yastrzemski 1967 BOS A LF 579 189 31 4 44 91 1.040 71.6 53.0 Bill Freehan 1968 DET A C 540 142 24 2 25 65 .819 40.9 41.7 Harmon Killebrew 1969 MIN A 3B 555 153 20 2 49 145 1.011 79.8 68.2 Frank Howard 1970 WAS A LF 566 160 15 1 44 132 .962 70.6 49.2 Bobby Murcer 1971 NY A CF 529 175 25 6 25 91 .969 68.3 59.2 Dick Allen 1972 CHI A 1B 506 156 28 5 37 99 1.023 71.9 51.6 Reggie Jackson 1973 OAK A RF 539 158 28 2 32 76 .914 64.2 58.1 Jeff Burroughs 1974 TEX A RF 554 167 33 2 25 91 .901 53.3 45.9 Toby Harrah 1975 TEX A SS 522 153 24 1 20 98 .861 42.8 56.1 Bobby Grich 1976 BAL A 2B 518 138 31 4 13 86 .790 29.2 37.2 Rod Carew 1977 MIN A 1B 616 239 38 16 14 69 1.019 73.1 60.5 Larry Hisle 1978 MIL A LF 520 151 24 0 34 67 .906 43.7 37.6 Darrell Porter 1979 KC A C 533 155 23 10 20 121 .905 50.5 56.7 George Brett 1980 KC A 3B 449 175 33 9 24 58 1.118 73.2 72.2 Bobby Grich 1981 CAL A 2B 352 107 14 2 22 40 .921 24.8 28.8 Robin Yount 1982 MIL A SS 635 210 46 12 29 54 .957 61.0 73.7 Wade Boggs 1983 BOS A 3B 582 210 44 7 5 92 .931 52.9 53.2 Cal Ripken 1984 BAL A SS 641 195 37 7 27 71 .884 41.6 56.2 George Brett 1985 KC A 3B 550 184 38 5 30 103 1.022 60.0 56.6 Wade Boggs 1986 BOS A 3B 580 207 47 2 8 105 .939 58.4 54.1 Alan Trammell 1987 DET A SS 597 205 34 3 28 60 .953 47.0 56.8 Jose Canseco 1988 OAK A RF 610 187 34 0 42 78 .959 55.0 45.0 Robin Yount 1989 MIL A CF 614 195 38 9 21 63 .896 48.4 46.3 Rickey Henderson 1990 OAK A LF 489 159 33 3 28 97 1.016 49.3 44.9 Cal Ripken 1991 BAL A SS 650 210 46 5 34 53 .940 51.1 66.5 Frank Thomas 1992 CHI A 1B 573 185 46 2 24 122 .975 62.3 48.0 John Olerud 1993 TOR A 1B 551 200 54 2 24 114 1.072 67.2 49.8 Frank Thomas 1994 CHI A 1B 399 141 34 1 38 109 1.217 65.9 49.3 Edgar Martinez 1995 SEA A DH 511 182 52 0 29 116 1.107 80.2 68.2 Alex Rodriguez 1996 SEA A SS 601 215 54 1 36 59 1.045 64.6 81.4 Ken Griffey 1997 SEA A CF 608 185 34 3 56 76 1.028 58.6 58.6 Derek Jeter 1998 NY A SS 626 203 25 8 19 57 .864 45.2 57.0 Derek Jeter 1999 NY A SS 627 219 37 9 24 91 .989 59.7 68.5 Alex Rodriguez 2000 SEA A SS 554 175 34 2 41 100 1.026 74.0 79.5 Jason Giambi 2001 OAK A 1B 520 178 47 2 38 129 1.137 86.9 67.5 Manny Ramirez 2002 BOS A LF 436 152 31 0 33 73 1.097 64.6 61.2 Jorge Posada 2003 NY A C 481 135 24 0 30 93 .922 43.7 56.2 Carlos Guillen 2004 DET A SS 522 166 37 10 20 52 .921 39.1 43.0
Name Year Team POS AB H 2B 3B HR BB OPS A/BPF A/POS Eddie Mathews 1960 MIL N 3B 548 152 19 7 39 111 .948 79.0 62.9 Willie Mays 1961 SF N CF 572 176 32 3 40 81 .977 67.2 51.5 Tommy Davis 1962 LA N LF 665 230 27 9 27 33 .910 65.6 46.4 Hank Aaron 1963 MIL N RF 631 201 29 4 44 78 .977 82.0 61.3 Willie Mays 1964 SF N CF 578 171 21 9 47 82 .990 63.4 50.5 Pete Rose 1965 CIN N 2B 670 209 35 11 11 69 .828 44.3 48.4 Dick Allen 1966 PHI N 3B 524 166 25 10 40 68 1.027 63.9 53.5 Roberto Clemente 1967 PIT N RF 585 209 26 10 23 41 .954 70.0 51.7 Willie McCovey 1968 SF N 1B 523 153 16 4 36 72 .923 54.7 37.0 Willie McCovey 1969 SF N 1B 491 157 26 2 45 121 1.108 86.1 64.7 Denis Menke 1970 HOU N SS 562 171 26 6 13 82 .833 42.3 57.9 Joe Torre 1971 STL N 3B 634 230 34 8 24 63 .976 69.0 59.6 Joe Morgan 1972 CIN N 2B 552 161 23 4 16 115 .851 76.9 77.4 Joe Morgan 1973 CIN N 2B 576 167 35 2 26 111 .899 60.8 61.8 Johnny Bench 1974 CIN N C 621 174 38 2 33 80 .870 48.7 50.8 Joe Morgan 1975 CIN N 2B 498 163 27 6 17 132 .974 70.5 71.1 Joe Morgan 1976 CIN N 2B 472 151 30 5 27 114 1.020 79.7 80.7 Joe Morgan 1977 CIN N 2B 521 150 21 6 22 117 .895 41.1 45.0 Dave Parker 1978 PIT N RF 581 194 32 12 30 57 .979 58.9 38.9 Dave Winfield 1979 SD N RF 597 184 27 10 34 85 .953 67.0 44.1 Ted Simmons 1980 STL N C 495 150 33 2 21 59 .880 41.2 37.4 Mike Schmidt 1981 PHI N 3B 354 112 19 2 31 73 1.080 46.6 39.9 Pedro Guerrero 1982 LA N RF 575 175 27 5 32 65 .914 48.7 36.9 Jose Cruz 1983 HOU N LF 594 189 28 8 14 65 .848 54.7 44.9 Jose Cruz 1984 HOU N LF 600 187 28 13 12 73 .842 53.3 42.0 Pedro Guerrero 1985 LA N LF 487 156 22 2 33 83 .999 55.2 46.0 Mike Schmidt 1986 PHI N 3B 552 160 29 1 37 89 .937 47.2 35.4 D. Strawberry 1987 NY N RF 532 151 32 5 39 97 .981 68.6 53.3 D. Strawberry 1988 NY N RF 543 146 27 3 39 85 .911 49.9 34.4 Will Clark 1989 SF N 1B 588 196 38 9 23 74 .953 74.0 51.0 Barry Bonds 1990 PIT N LF 519 156 32 3 33 93 .970 61.7 45.7 Barry Bonds 1991 PIT N LF 510 149 28 5 25 107 .924 64.8 53.3 Barry Bonds 1992 PIT N LF 473 147 36 5 34 127 1.080 70.0 60.3 Barry Bonds 1993 SF N LF 539 181 38 4 46 126 1.136 87.0 74.2 Jeff Bagwell 1994 HOU N 1B 400 147 32 2 39 65 1.201 69.6 55.4 Mike Piazza 1995 LA N C 434 150 17 0 32 39 1.006 51.0 51.4 Barry Bonds 1996 SF N LF 517 159 27 3 42 151 1.076 98.2 79.3 Mike Piazza 1997 LA N C 556 201 32 1 40 69 1.070 78.5 77.7 Mark McGwire 1998 STL N 1B 509 152 21 0 70 162 1.222 94.5 69.0 Brian Giles 1999 PIT N CF 521 164 33 3 39 95 1.032 60.5 52.5 Jeff Kent 2000 SF N 2B 587 196 41 7 33 90 1.021 74.8 71.1 Barry Bonds 2001 SF N LF 476 156 32 2 73 177 1.379 129.0 108.2 Barry Bonds 2002 SF N LF 403 149 31 2 46 198 1.381 121.9 102.0 Barry Bonds 2003 SF N LF 390 133 22 1 45 148 1.278 82.1 64.8 Barry Bonds 2004 SF N LF 373 135 27 3 45 232 1.422 115.9 96.4
This adjustment caused wholesale changes in the yearly leader board. The breakdown in league leaderships by position before and after the adjustment:
C 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF DH
Before 0 22 4 9 1 22 10 20 3
After 8 11 10 10 11 18 10 11 1
There are a few surprising league leaders in the charts above but perhaps none more so Denis Menke atop the NL in 1970. In order to look at what went wrong (or right) with this selection, let's start with the top hitters in the league that year as ranked by our linear weight method:
Name Year Team AB H 2B 3B HR BB OPS LWR Willie McCovey 1970 SF N 495 143 39 2 39 137 1.056 60.8 Billy Williams 1970 CHI N 636 205 34 4 42 72 .977 58.0 Rico Carty 1970 ATL N 478 175 23 3 25 77 1.037 53.5 Jim Hickman 1970 CHI N 514 162 33 4 32 93 1.001 53.0 Tony Perez 1970 CIN N 587 186 28 6 40 83 .990 53.0 Bernie Carbo 1970 CIN N 365 113 19 3 21 94 1.004 42.7 Hank Aaron 1970 ATL N 516 154 26 1 38 74 .958 42.6 Johnny Bench 1970 CIN N 605 177 35 4 45 54 .932 41.8 Dick Dietz 1970 SF N 493 148 36 2 22 109 .941 40.1 Rusty Staub 1970 MON N 569 156 23 7 30 112 .891 39.7
And where is Denis Menke? He's in 25th place:
Name Year Team AB H 2B 3B HR BB OPS LWR Denis Menke 1970 HOU N 562 171 26 6 13 82 .833 27.9
So by most linear weight measurements, Menke would be far down in the pack, at least before we adjusted for park and position. He starts out much higher according to Value Added Batting Runs. The 1970 NL leaders:
Name Year Team AB H 2B 3B HR BB OPS VABR Billy Williams 1970 CHI N 636 205 34 4 42 72 .977 69.0 Willie McCovey 1970 SF N 495 143 39 2 39 137 1.056 66.1 Jim Hickman 1970 CHI N 514 162 33 4 32 93 1.001 58.5 Rico Carty 1970 ATL N 478 175 23 3 25 77 1.037 54.6 Dick Dietz 1970 SF N 493 148 36 2 22 109 .941 54.3 Tony Perez 1970 CIN N 587 186 28 6 40 83 .990 53.7 Hank Aaron 1970 ATL N 516 154 26 1 38 74 .958 52.7 Wes Parker 1970 LA N 614 196 47 4 10 79 .850 45.5 Johnny Bench 1970 CIN N 605 177 35 4 45 54 .932 44.5 Rusty Staub 1970 MON N 569 156 23 7 30 112 .891 43.1
Menke is still not in the top ten, but he's moved up to 13th place.
Name Year Team AB H 2B 3B HR BB OPS VABR Denis Menke 1970 HOU N 562 171 26 6 13 82 .833 37.4
The Astrodome was a poor hitter's park so taking that into account moves him up even further:
Name Year Team AB H 2B 3B HR BB OPS VABR IPF A/BPF Willie McCovey 1970 SF N 495 143 39 2 39 137 1.056 66.1 .996 66.6 Dick Dietz 1970 SF N 493 148 36 2 22 109 .941 54.3 .994 55.0 Wes Parker 1970 LA N 614 196 47 4 10 79 .850 45.5 .935 54.4 Tony Perez 1970 CIN N 587 186 28 6 40 83 .990 53.7 1.008 52.7 Billy Williams 1970 CHI N 636 205 34 4 42 72 .977 69.0 1.131 51.4 Rico Carty 1970 ATL N 478 175 23 3 25 77 1.037 54.6 1.056 48.3 Hank Aaron 1970 ATL N 516 154 26 1 38 74 .958 52.7 1.054 46.4 Johnny Bench 1970 CIN N 605 177 35 4 45 54 .932 44.5 1.005 43.9 Jim Hickman 1970 CHI N 514 162 33 4 32 93 1.001 58.5 1.137 42.9 Denis Menke 1970 HOU N 562 171 26 6 13 82 .833 37.4 .958 42.3
While Menke jumped up to 10th place, this adjustment helped Wes Parker even more, and Menke is still quite a ways from the top spot. To get some idea of what the positional adjustment is going to do for Menke, here is how the regular shortstops in the NL hit in 1970:
Name Year Team AB H 2B 3B HR BB OPS VABR IPF A/BPF Denis Menke 1970 HOU N 562 171 26 6 13 82 .833 37.4 .958 42.3 Sonny Jackson 1970 ATL N 328 85 14 3 0 45 .668 -2.1 1.062 -4.6 Gene Alley 1970 PIT N 426 104 16 5 8 31 .659 -8.1 .989 -7.6 Jose Arcia 1970 SD N 229 51 9 3 0 12 .570 -8.9 .978 -8.5 Bud Harrelson 1970 NY N 564 137 18 8 1 95 .659 -11.3 1.002 -11.4 Maury Wills 1970 LA N 522 141 19 3 0 50 .651 -15.3 .934 -11.7 Dave Concepcion 1970 CIN N 265 69 6 3 1 23 .641 -16.1 1.025 -16.5 Bobby Wine 1970 MON N 501 116 21 3 3 39 .590 -20.1 1.013 -20.7 Don Kessinger 1970 CHI N 631 168 21 14 1 66 .685 -12.8 1.138 -21.3 Dal Maxvill 1970 STL N 399 80 5 2 0 51 .510 -27.0 1.021 -27.6 Hal Lanier 1970 SF N 438 101 13 1 2 21 .543 -37.2 .985 -37.0 Larry Bowa 1970 PHI N 547 137 17 6 0 21 .580 -40.1 .988 -39.8
I suppose you could safely say that hitting talent was scarce at shortstop that year. Here are the league leaders after the adjustment for position:
Name Year Team POS AB H 2B 3B HR BB OPS A/BPF A/POS Denis Menke 1970 HOU N SS 562 171 26 6 13 82 .833 42.3 57.9 Dick Dietz 1970 SF N C 493 148 36 2 22 109 .941 55.0 57.1 Willie McCovey 1970 SF N 1B 495 143 39 2 39 137 1.056 66.6 44.0 Johnny Bench 1970 CIN N C 605 177 35 4 45 54 .932 43.9 42.7 Tony Perez 1970 CIN N 3B 587 186 28 6 40 83 .990 52.7 41.4 B. Grabarkewitz 1970 LA N 3B 529 153 20 8 17 95 .852 39.3 39.0 Joe Morgan 1970 HOU N 2B 548 147 28 9 8 102 .779 22.7 31.7 Rico Carty 1970 ATL N LF 478 175 23 3 25 77 1.037 48.3 31.1 Tony Taylor 1970 PHI N 2B 439 132 26 9 9 50 .837 30.5 29.3 Billy Williams 1970 CHI N LF 636 205 34 4 42 72 .977 51.4 29.3
Now do we want to give Menke "credit" for the fact that other teams had poor-hitting shortstops? Or penalize McCovey and Parker because good-hitting first basemen were common in 1970? I don't know. I think it's an interesting exercise to see where this kind of analysis leads us, but I must admit to being unconvinced that Denis Menke was the top offensive force in the NL that season.
Here are the worst marks each year after adjusting for position:
Name Year Team POS AB H 2B 3B HR BB OPS A/BPF A/POS Julio Becquer 1960 WAS A 1B 298 75 15 7 4 12 .671 -10.5 -21.3 Vic Power 1961 CLE A 1B 563 151 34 4 5 38 .679 -16.6 -38.8 Jim Piersall 1962 WAS A CF 471 115 20 4 4 39 .630 -20.6 -30.0 Tito Francona 1963 CLE A LF 500 114 29 0 10 47 .642 -15.0 -27.6 Lee Thomas 1964 LAA-BOS RF 573 150 27 3 15 52 .723 -5.1 -24.2 Mike Hershberger 1965 KC A RF 494 114 15 5 5 37 .601 -19.5 -33.0 Sam Bowens 1966 BAL A RF 243 51 9 1 6 17 .605 -15.0 -21.2 Jose Tartabull 1967 BOS A RF 247 55 1 2 0 23 .530 -21.3 -25.1 George Scott 1968 BOS A 1B 350 60 14 0 3 26 .473 -22.2 -33.0 Aur. Rodriguez 1969 CAL A 3B 561 130 17 2 7 32 .579 -23.2 -27.6 Horace Clarke 1970 NY A 2B 686 172 24 2 4 35 .595 -39.2 -32.6 Aur. Rodriguez 1971 DET A 3B 604 153 30 7 15 27 .688 -23.7 -29.6 Jim Spencer 1972 CAL A 1B 212 47 5 0 1 12 .522 -12.6 -17.4 Mike Epstein 1973 TEX-CAL 1B 397 83 11 2 9 48 .619 -14.6 -25.6 Deron Johnson 1974 3 Teams DH 351 60 4 2 13 32 .542 -29.8 -33.4 Paul Blair 1975 BAL A CF 440 96 13 4 5 25 .557 -26.2 -28.3 Paul Blair 1976 BAL A CF 375 74 16 0 3 22 .509 -32.6 -34.5 Rob Picciolo 1977 OAK A SS 419 84 12 3 2 9 .475 -43.1 -30.1 Leroy Stanton 1978 SEA A DH 302 55 11 0 3 34 .514 -23.4 -25.8 Mario Mendoza 1979 SEA A SS 373 74 10 3 1 9 .466 -48.9 -36.5 Hosken Powell 1980 MIN A RF 485 127 17 5 6 32 .666 -22.0 -26.9 Danny Ainge 1981 TOR A 3B 246 46 6 2 0 23 .486 -19.5 -20.4 Miguel Dilone 1982 CLE A LF 379 89 12 3 3 25 .592 -23.2 -29.2 Al Cowens 1983 SEA A RF 356 73 19 2 7 23 .584 -25.9 -29.4 Bob Boone 1984 CAL A C 450 91 16 1 3 25 .504 -42.2 -31.9 George Wright 1985 TEX A RF-CF 363 69 13 0 2 25 .483 -47.6 -50.5 Tim Hulett 1986 CHI A 3B 520 120 16 5 17 21 .639 -36.4 -35.1 Angel Salazar 1987 KC A SS 317 65 7 0 2 6 .465 -39.5 -34.7 Billy Ripken 1988 BAL A 2B 512 106 18 1 2 33 .518 -35.1 -28.9 Cory Snyder 1989 CLE A RF 489 105 17 0 18 23 .611 -25.2 -31.0 Pete O'Brien 1990 SEA A 1B 366 82 18 0 5 44 .622 -29.3 -37.5 Billy Ripken 1991 BAL A 2B 287 62 11 1 0 15 .515 -30.2 -29.0 Steve Sax 1992 CHI A 2B 567 134 26 4 4 43 .607 -32.4 -30.4 Dave McCarty 1993 MIN A OF-1B 350 75 15 2 2 19 .542 -29.8 -35.2 Vince Coleman 1994 KC A LF 438 105 14 12 2 29 .626 -23.6 -27.9 Don Mattingly 1995 NY A 1B 458 132 32 2 7 40 .754 -20.0 -37.6 J.T. Snow 1996 CAL A 1B 575 148 20 1 17 56 .711 -22.7 -44.6 Scott Brosius 1997 OAK A 3B 479 97 20 1 11 34 .576 -51.0 -48.7 John Flaherty 1998 TB A C 304 63 11 0 3 22 .534 -43.1 -34.7 Mike Caruso 1999 CHI A SS 529 132 11 4 2 20 .577 -48.0 -41.3 Ron Coomer 2000 MIN A 1B 544 147 29 1 16 36 .733 -18.4 -34.8 Shea Hillenbrand 2001 BOS A 3B 468 123 20 2 12 13 .682 -28.1 -26.2 Neifi Perez 2002 KC A SS 554 131 20 4 3 20 .564 -54.0 -51.0 Paul Konerko 2003 CHI A 1B 444 104 19 0 18 43 .704 -22.3 -30.8 Scott Spiezio 2004 SEA A 3B 367 79 12 3 10 36 .634 -25.7 -28.8
Name Year Team POS AB H 2B 3B HR BB OPS A/BPF A/POS Ken Walters 1960 PHI N RF 426 102 10 0 8 16 .585 -26.2 -36.5 Charlie James 1961 STL N RF 349 89 19 2 4 15 .644 -18.9 -29.3 Bill Virdon 1962 PIT N CF 663 164 27 10 6 36 .631 -29.6 -45.4 Bob Lillis 1963 HOU N SS 469 93 13 1 1 15 .466 -35.2 -25.9 Bill Virdon 1964 PIT N CF 473 115 11 3 3 30 .585 -20.1 -29.6 Bob Aspromonte 1965 HOU N 3B 578 152 15 2 5 38 .632 -19.6 -31.8 Tommy Harper 1966 CIN N RF 553 154 22 5 5 57 .711 -12.1 -28.2 Donn Clendenon 1967 PIT N 1B 478 119 15 2 13 34 .668 -11.0 -24.3 Hal Lanier 1968 SF N SS 486 100 14 1 0 12 .461 -44.6 -30.9 Jesus Alou 1969 HOU N LF 452 112 19 4 5 15 .617 -17.2 -31.5 Tommy Helms 1970 CIN N 2B 575 136 21 1 1 21 .543 -43.2 -34.8 Sonny Jackson 1971 ATL N CF 547 141 20 5 2 35 .626 -19.7 -29.4 Randy Hundley 1972 CHI N C 357 78 12 0 5 22 .555 -26.5 -24.4 Bobby Tolan 1973 CIN N CF 457 94 14 2 9 27 .555 -24.9 -34.0 Dave Roberts 1974 SD N 3B 318 53 10 1 5 32 .497 -29.6 -34.4 Ken Reitz 1975 STL N 3B 592 159 25 1 5 22 .637 -23.5 -31.8 Del Unser 1976 NYN-MON CF 496 113 19 4 12 29 .624 -20.9 -29.5 Jerry Royster 1977 ATL N 3B-SS 445 96 10 2 6 38 .566 -34.9 -31.8 Ted Sizemore 1978 PHI N 2B 351 77 12 0 0 25 .523 -31.1 -27.0 Willie Montanez 1979 NY N 1B 410 96 19 0 5 25 .594 -16.7 -28.4 Omar Moreno 1980 PIT N CF 676 168 20 13 2 57 .631 -26.0 -34.9 Doug Flynn 1981 NY N 2B 325 72 12 4 1 11 .539 -23.7 -20.1 Paul Householder 1982 CIN N RF 417 88 11 5 9 30 .592 -25.5 -34.3 Doug Flynn 1983 MON N 2B 452 107 18 4 0 19 .561 -32.1 -29.6 Ron Oester 1984 CIN N 2B 553 134 26 3 3 41 .612 -24.2 -24.7 Bob Dernier 1985 CHI N CF 469 119 20 3 1 40 .631 -18.6 -24.6 Vince Coleman 1986 STL N LF 600 139 13 8 0 60 .581 -27.6 -39.3 Glenn Wilson 1987 PHI N RF 569 150 21 2 14 38 .689 -22.8 -37.4 Chris James 1988 PHI N RF 566 137 24 1 19 31 .671 -18.7 -31.0 Vince Coleman 1989 STL N LF 563 143 21 9 2 50 .650 -17.7 -34.4 Eric Yelding 1990 HOU N CF 511 130 9 5 1 39 .602 -20.8 -23.0 Andres Galarraga 1991 MON N 1B 375 82 13 2 9 23 .604 -18.8 -29.6 Jose Lind 1992 PIT N 2B 468 110 14 1 0 26 .544 -25.1 -26.4 Eric Karros 1993 LA N 1B 619 153 27 2 23 34 .696 -16.5 -35.6 James Mouton 1994 HOU N RF 310 76 11 0 2 27 .615 -19.8 -27.0 Jose Oliva 1995 ATL-SLN 3B 183 26 5 0 7 12 .486 -23.2 -25.0 Charles Johnson 1996 FLA N C 386 84 13 1 13 40 .649 -29.5 -30.2 Jose Guillen 1997 PIT N RF 498 133 20 5 14 17 .712 -14.2 -27.9 Travis Lee 1998 ARI N 1B 562 151 20 2 22 67 .775 -5.6 -29.4 Derek Bell 1999 HOU N RF 509 120 22 0 12 50 .656 -27.4 -43.1 Doug Glanville 2000 PHI N CF 637 175 27 6 8 31 .681 -33.9 -39.6 Brad Ausmus 2001 HOU N C 422 98 23 4 5 30 .625 -36.6 -30.7 Vinny Castilla 2002 ATL N 3B 543 126 23 2 12 22 .616 -31.4 -34.4 Jose Hernandez 2003 3 Teams 3S 519 117 18 3 13 46 .634 -40.1 -37.9 Richard Hidalgo 2004 HOU-NYN RF 523 125 26 3 25 44 .745 -17.2 -29.8
Here are the career leaders after adjusting for position:
Name POS AB H 2B 3B HR BB OPS A/BPF A/POS Barry Bonds LF 9098 2730 563 77 703 2302 1.053 1247.4 972.9 Joe Morgan 2B 9277 2517 449 96 268 1865 .819 629.2 701.6 Mike Piazza C 5805 1829 285 6 378 666 .947 497.1 521.5 Frank Thomas 1B-DH 6851 2113 444 11 436 1450 .996 672.4 493.7 Hank Aaron RF 8840 2634 419 52 576 1121 .927 729.0 460.2 i Reggie Jackson RF 9864 2584 463 49 563 1375 .846 598.6 450.9 Frank Robinson RF 7729 2263 416 51 452 1181 .928 657.1 437.7 i Ken Griffey CF 7379 2156 400 36 501 984 .937 454.8 431.8 Alex Rodriguez SS 5590 1707 309 24 381 639 .955 361.5 431.7 Edgar Martinez DH 7213 2247 514 15 309 1283 .933 513.0 427.4 Rickey Henderson LF 10961 3055 510 66 297 2190 .820 581.3 423.3 Willie Mays CF 6807 1992 319 61 410 959 .918 585.5 420.5 i George Brett 3B 10349 3154 665 137 317 1096 .857 497.9 414.1 Gary Sheffield RF 7302 2175 386 24 415 1202 .928 580.5 413.4 Mike Schmidt 3B 8352 2234 408 59 548 1507 .908 560.9 411.7 Wade Boggs 3B 9180 3010 578 61 118 1412 .858 403.3 397.2 Rod Carew 1B-2B 9315 3053 445 112 92 1018 .822 455.8 396.1 Robin Yount SS-CF 11008 3142 583 126 251 966 .772 250.2 384.1 Mark McGwire 1B 6187 1626 252 6 583 1317 .982 597.0 383.6 Jeff Bagwell 1B 7697 2289 484 32 446 1383 .951 674.9 375.1 i - incomplete
And the career trailers:
Name POS AB H 2B 3B HR BB OPS A/BPF A/POS Aur. Rodriguez 3B 6611 1570 287 46 124 324 .626 -230.0 -257.7 Vince Coleman LF 5406 1425 176 89 28 477 .668 -111.9 -218.1 Ken Reitz 3B 4777 1243 243 12 68 184 .649 -127.5 -197.4 Bill Buckner 1B 9397 2715 498 49 174 450 .729 48.0 -191.1 Omar Moreno CF 4992 1257 171 87 37 387 .649 -124.5 -182.3 Hal Lanier SS-2B 3703 843 111 20 8 136 .529 -245.9 -182.1 Doug Flynn 2B 3853 918 115 39 7 151 .560 -224.1 -179.4 Rey Sanchez SS 4807 1305 192 32 15 227 .642 -222.7 -174.5 Neifi Perez SS 4190 1129 188 59 52 201 .681 -222.4 -170.1 Doug Glanville CF 3964 1100 166 32 59 208 .695 -126.7 -163.4 Ed Brinkman SS 6045 1355 201 38 60 444 .580 -254.9 -162.7 Royce Clayton SS 6208 1598 291 50 105 483 .684 -230.2 -158.1 Rick Manning CF 5248 1349 189 43 56 471 .658 -124.5 -153.9 Willie Wilson CF 7731 2207 281 147 41 425 .702 -96.6 -152.5 Brian Hunter CF 3347 882 146 28 25 243 .660 -131.5 -150.2 Tom Goodwin CF 3846 1029 125 39 24 365 .671 -137.0 -149.7 Kevin Young 1B 3897 1007 235 17 144 336 .762 -7.7 -145.3 Ed Kranepool 1B 5436 1418 225 25 118 454 .693 11.7 -143.9 Otis Nixon CF 5115 1379 142 27 11 585 .658 -116.3 -143.4 Jesus Alou RF-LF 4345 1216 170 26 32 138 .658 -36.4 -142.8
While this "worst" list still boast quite a few middle-infielders, it also has its share of outfielders and first-basemen. By the way, had we extended this list 3 more places, it would have included Lou Brock, Hall of Fame outfielder.
But what happened to the pitchers that were on our earlier list? Here they are:
Name POS AB H 2B 3B HR BB OPS A/BPF A/POS Greg Maddux P 1330 235 31 2 4 30 .410 -183.0 15.0 Phil Niekro P 1537 260 42 1 7 17 .395 -186.7 -2.6 Don Sutton P 1354 195 15 1 0 60 .340 -203.7 -35.9
So Maddux made the original worst list despite being a slightly better than average hitter (for a pitcher) over the course of his career, Phil Niekro was just about average and only Don Sutton was a bad hitting pitcher. The worst hitting pitcher after adjusting for position? The one, the only...
Name POS AB H 2B 3B HR BB OPS A/BPF A/POS Dean Chance P 662 44 2 0 0 30 .183 -123.7 -47.2
One weird thing about Dean Chance. Over the course of his career, he played in slight pitcher's parks (park factor .993). When applying this to his unadjusted batting runs, they actually got somewhat worse (from -123.7 to -124.0). The reason is that Chance was so bad at the plate that even after adding in the average runs per plate appearances, his total was still negative, which caused the park adjustment to have the opposite of its intended effect. Put quite simply, Dean Chance was so bad he broke the method. I suppose it's a good thing there weren't many hitters like him.
I wanted to compare the results of the Value Added approach to a more traditional measurement system like Linear Weights. Since we've already introduced our own home-grown linear weight system, I decided to use that one, which for the sake of simplicity we'll call Linear Weight Runs. The nice thing about using two paired methods is that we know they are expressed in similar units so differences between the two should be caused by differences in the context of the events, a context invisible to linear weight methods.
Here are the players with the greatest positive difference between their unadjusted Value Added Batting Runs and their linear weight runs:
Name Year Team AB H 2B 3B HR BB OPS VABR LWR DIFF Vic Wertz 1960 BOS A 443 125 22 0 19 37 .796 36.8 10.5 26.3 Tony Gwynn 1997 SD N 592 220 49 2 17 43 .957 71.6 46.7 24.9 Troy O'Leary 1996 BOS A 497 129 28 5 15 47 .753 14.5 -10.2 24.7 Lyman Bostock 1978 CAL A 568 168 24 4 5 59 .740 25.5 1.5 24.0 Joe Morgan 1972 CIN N 552 161 23 4 16 115 .851 68.3 45.1 23.2 Chris Stynes 2003 COL N 443 113 31 3 11 48 .748 24.1 1.4 22.7 Lance Berkman 2002 HOU N 578 169 35 2 42 107 .982 73.5 51.2 22.3 Matt Williams 1990 SF N 617 171 27 2 33 33 .807 37.8 16.4 21.4 Wally Joyner 1998 SD N 439 131 30 1 12 51 .824 35.7 14.4 21.2 Norm Siebern 1962 KC A 600 185 25 6 25 110 .907 66.4 45.5 20.9 Rusty Greer 1999 TEX A 556 167 41 3 20 96 .898 47.0 26.1 20.9 Paul Konerko 2004 CHI A 563 156 22 0 41 69 .894 38.0 17.1 20.9 Roberto Clemente 1967 PIT N 585 209 26 10 23 41 .954 70.6 50.0 20.6 Bill White 1966 PHI N 577 159 23 6 22 68 .803 43.5 23.0 20.5 Jeff Bagwell 2001 HOU N 600 173 43 4 39 106 .966 62.9 42.5 20.5 Eric Chavez 2001 OAK A 552 159 43 0 32 41 .878 42.0 21.5 20.5 Joe Torre 1964 MIL N 601 193 36 5 20 36 .863 49.2 28.8 20.4 Richie Zisk 1974 PIT N 536 168 30 3 17 65 .862 51.7 31.4 20.3 Garry Templeton 1982 SD N 563 139 25 8 6 26 .631 2.1 -18.1 20.2 Jim Gentile 1960 BAL A 384 112 17 0 21 68 .903 48.5 28.7 19.8 Tom Herr 1985 STL N 596 180 38 3 8 80 .795 47.9 28.1 19.8 Where: LWR - Linear Weight Runs
These players all produced more runs for their teams than their statistical line would otherwise indicate. Most of the increase was due to their performance with men in scoring position. For example, Vic Wertz in 1960 had a 1.106 OPS with men in scoring position compared to a .649 OPS with the bases empty. In addition, he went 11 for 19 with 3 home runs with the bases loaded. Lymon Bostock hit .343 with men in scoring position in 1978 and also led the American League by reaching on errors 16 times.
The flip side of the coin, the players with the largest negative differentials:
Name Year Team AB H 2B 3B HR BB OPS VABR LWR DIFF Raul Mondesi 2003 NYA-ARI 523 142 31 4 24 56 .827 -9.7 12.6 -22.3 Rafael Palmeiro 1988 CHI N 580 178 41 5 8 38 .785 .1 22.1 -22.0 Larry Walker 1998 COL N 454 165 46 3 23 64 1.075 35.8 56.5 -20.7 Ivan DeJesus 1978 CHI N 619 172 24 7 3 74 .710 -16.8 3.8 -20.6 Aur. Rodriguez 1971 DET A 604 153 30 7 15 27 .688 -22.5 -2.0 -20.5 Horace Clarke 1970 NY A 686 172 24 2 4 35 .595 -41.1 -21.1 -20.1 Tim Raines 1985 MON N 575 184 30 13 11 81 .880 19.7 39.7 -20.0 Bill Russell 1978 LA N 625 179 32 4 3 30 .684 -25.0 -5.4 -19.6 Tony Gwynn 1987 SD N 589 218 36 13 7 82 .958 29.2 48.5 -19.3 Tito Fuentes 1970 SF N 435 116 13 7 2 36 .665 -26.2 -7.0 -19.2 Rick Dempsey 1986 BAL A 327 68 15 1 13 45 .689 -24.9 -5.9 -19.0 Ralph Garr 1973 ATL N 668 200 32 6 11 22 .737 -10.0 8.6 -18.6 Mark Kotsay 2004 OAK A 606 190 37 3 15 55 .829 .5 18.8 -18.4 Ron Gant 2000 PHI-ANA 425 106 19 3 26 56 .827 -9.8 8.5 -18.3 Robin Ventura 1996 CHI A 586 168 31 2 34 78 .888 -1.3 16.8 -18.1 Jose Cardenal 1966 CAL A 561 155 15 3 16 34 .719 -6.4 11.7 -18.1 Max Alvis 1963 CLE A 602 165 32 7 22 36 .784 1.1 19.0 -17.9 Preston Wilson 2001 FLA N 468 128 30 2 23 36 .825 -10.5 7.3 -17.9 Phil Bradley 1987 SEA A 603 179 38 10 14 84 .850 1.3 19.0 -17.6 Pete O'Brien 1990 SEA A 366 82 18 0 5 44 .622 -29.5 -12.2 -17.3 Paul Molitor 1983 MIL A 608 164 28 6 15 59 .743 -12.8 4.4 -17.3 Willie Wilson 1986 KC A 631 170 20 7 9 31 .679 -27.1 -9.8 -17.3
Again, these differences can be caused by a number of factors, but the most common is a failure to perform well with men in scoring position. Raul Mondesi hit .328 with the bases empty in 2003 with the Yankees and the Diamondbacks and only .152 with runners in scoring position. With the bases loaded that season, he grounded into as many double-plays (3) as he had hits in 21 at-bats.
Note that Tony Gwynn appears on both lists. According to our linear weight measurement, his 1987 season was slightly better than his 1997 campaign. According to Value Added Batting Runs, there was no comparison: his 1997 season was over 40 runs better.
The players who over the course of their careers exceeded their linear weight scores by the greatest number of Value Added Runs:
Name AB H 2B 3B HR BB OPS VABR LWR DIFF ORD Harold Baines 9908 2866 488 49 384 1062 .820 332.8 221.1 111.8 3 Dave Parker 9358 2712 526 75 339 683 .810 400.7 291.6 109.1 3 Ted Simmons 8680 2472 483 47 248 855 .785 303.8 198.2 105.6 4 Boog Powell 6681 1776 270 11 339 1001 .822 400.6 313.3 87.3 4 Rod Carew 9315 3053 445 112 92 1018 .822 486.2 403.8 82.4 2 Terry Pendleton 7032 1897 356 39 140 486 .707 43.0 -38.4 81.4 6 Reggie Jackson 9864 2584 463 49 563 1375 .846 531.7 450.7 81.0 4 Eddie Murray 11336 3255 560 35 504 1333 .836 463.4 382.7 80.7 4 Tony Perez 9778 2732 505 79 379 925 .804 386.4 309.7 76.7 4 Billy Williams 9317 2706 434 87 426 1044 .855 604.4 530.6 73.8 3 B.J. Surhoff 7955 2248 429 40 183 629 .749 72.3 -0.3 72.7 3 Julio Franco 8189 2457 382 53 161 863 .785 168.4 98.1 70.3 2 Carl Yastrzemski 11988 3419 646 59 452 1845 .841 680.1 610.1 69.9 3 Willie Stargell 7927 2232 423 55 475 937 .889 585.6 516.6 69.0 4 Steve Garvey 8835 2599 440 43 272 479 .775 253.9 185.6 68.3 4 Roberto Clemente 7035 2318 329 124 214 521 .878 458.6 390.9 67.7 3 Mike Piazza 5805 1829 285 6 378 666 .947 425.5 358.0 67.5 3 George Scott 7433 1992 306 60 271 699 .767 179.3 115.3 64.0 4 Bob Watson 6185 1826 307 41 184 653 .811 291.6 228.8 62.8 4 Jason Giambi 4757 1413 296 8 281 871 .951 404.2 342.2 62.0 3 Where: ORD - their most common position in the batting order
And the ones with the greatest deficits:
Name AB H 2B 3B HR BB OPS VABR LWR DIFF ORD Brett Butler 8180 2375 277 131 54 1129 .753 146.5 227.3 -80.8 1 Ralph Garr 5108 1562 212 64 75 246 .755 27.6 101.2 -73.6 1 Larry Bowa 8418 2191 262 99 15 474 .620 -259.2 -186.5 -72.7 2 Davey Lopes 6354 1671 232 50 155 833 .737 32.0 101.5 -69.5 1 Don Baylor 8198 2135 366 28 338 805 .777 118.8 181.6 -62.8 4-5 Willie Wilson 7731 2207 281 147 41 425 .702 -96.0 -37.1 -59.0 1 Paul Blair 6042 1513 282 55 134 449 .684 -73.4 -14.4 -59.0 2 Doug Glanville 3964 1100 166 32 59 208 .695 -123.0 -65.7 -57.3 1 Rick Dempsey 4692 1093 223 12 96 592 .666 -152.9 -95.6 -57.3 9 Vince Coleman 5406 1425 176 89 28 477 .668 -107.6 -50.4 -57.2 1 Frank Taveras 4043 1029 144 44 2 249 .614 -165.7 -109.2 -56.5 1 Richard Hidalgo 3151 861 202 19 155 332 .847 40.2 94.5 -54.3 6 Lou Brock 10332 3023 486 141 149 761 .753 189.3 243.3 -54.0 1 Lenny Dykstra 4559 1298 281 43 81 640 .793 138.7 191.7 -52.9 1 Terry Puhl 4855 1361 226 56 62 505 .737 50.2 101.8 -51.6 1 Fernando Vina 4240 1196 194 49 40 288 .728 -54.7 -3.6 -51.1 1 Chet Lemon 6868 1875 396 61 215 749 .797 122.2 172.9 -50.7 6-7 Tom Brunansky 6289 1543 306 33 271 770 .761 17.9 67.6 -49.8 4 Freddie Patek 5530 1340 216 55 41 523 .633 -162.0 -112.5 -49.5 1 Don Slaught 4063 1151 235 28 77 311 .749 -39.8 9.5 -49.3 7
I added batting order position to these tables because I noticed that the players on the top list were most likely to hit 3rd or 4th in the order (17 of 20) and the players on the bottom list most likely to lead-off (12 of 20). I believe there are two reasons for this. Middle of the order hitters are more likely to hit in valuable situations (runners in scoring position) than hitters at the top of the lineup. As a result, both their successes and failures matter more, but the value of their hits appear to outweigh the cost of their outs. The second reason is probably a limitation in the methodology. Middle of the order hitters are more likely to be up with fast men on base than lead-off hitters. Since the batter is given the benefit of all advances on balls they put into play, this approach disproportionately helps 3rd and 4th place hitters.
At least that was my theory. I decided to test this out by determining the value (expressed both in Value Added and Linear Weight runs) of both good, bad and total events for each lineup position. I broke the plays into 3 groups: the National League, the American League before the DH, and the post-DH American League. The results:
National League
Value Added Linear Weights
ORD POS NEG ALL POS NEG ALL VA-LW
1 .458 -.232 -.000 .492 -.239 .006 -.006
2 .486 -.233 .003 .500 -.243 .001 .002
3 .518 -.237 .038 .528 -.249 .034 .004
4 .562 -.259 .037 .539 -.251 .034 .003
5 .558 -.259 .018 .530 -.250 .015 .003
6 .530 -.253 .004 .520 -.250 .003 .001
7 .507 -.251 -.011 .505 -.249 -.011 -.000
8 .470 -.249 -.025 .473 -.248 -.023 -.002
9 .479 -.245 -.091 .478 -.238 -.086 -.005
Pre-DH American League
Value Added Linear Weights
ORD POS NEG ALL POS NEG ALL VA-LW
1 .447 -.216 -.003 .479 -.224 .002 -.005
2 .473 -.218 .003 .489 -.227 .002 .001
3 .503 -.223 .034 .512 -.235 .029 .005
4 .538 -.242 .034 .519 -.234 .032 .002
5 .539 -.246 .013 .515 -.234 .014 -.000
6 .514 -.237 .005 .503 -.235 .003 .002
7 .492 -.237 -.008 .490 -.235 -.007 -.001
8 .466 -.236 -.020 .466 -.234 -.019 -.001
9 .468 -.229 -.082 .462 -.225 -.080 -.002
Post-DH American League
Value Added Linear Weights
ORD POS NEG ALL POS NEG ALL VA-LW
1 .494 -.256 -.002 .516 -.263 .001 -.003
2 .522 -.260 .001 .527 -.266 -.002 .002
3 .548 -.263 .026 .553 -.273 .021 .004
4 .581 -.281 .022 .563 -.273 .021 .001
5 .573 -.282 .008 .556 -.273 .008 .000
6 .559 -.275 -.001 .552 -.273 -.002 .001
7 .542 -.272 -.013 .543 -.271 -.012 -.001
8 .528 -.272 -.026 .529 -.269 -.024 -.002
9 .510 -.266 -.035 .518 -.265 -.033 -.003
Where: ORD - the batting order position
POS - the average of the plays with a positive linear weight
NEG - the average of the plays with a negative linear weight
ALL - the average of all the plays
VA-LW - the average difference between the two values
So it does look as if Linear Weight Methods tend to overstate the contribution of lead-off hitters and hitters at the bottom of the order. Or you could argue that it looks as if the Value Added Method overstates the contribution of the hitters in the middle of the order. Both of these statements are probably partially true.
In computing Value Added Stolen Base Runs (VASBR), I included the value of each stolen base, caught stealing, pick-off, error attempting a pick-off, defensive indifference and balks. The lead runner was credited with the benefit or cost of each play unless there were runners on first and third and the runner on third didn't attempt the steal or there was a balk. In that case, the runner of record was the man on first. Like before, I gave the runners credit for any extra bases reached during these plays. So if a runner on first tried to steal second and proceeded to third when the catcher's throw sailed into centerfield, that runner got credit for the transition from first to third.
Some classes of plays that I didn't consider part of the running game were wild pitches, passed balls or outs attempting to advance on one of those. I had originally considered these stolen base events but changed my mind once I checked to see if the incidence of these were independent of the speed of the runners involved. I looked at all the games (with play-by-play data) from 1960 to 2004 and counted how often a runner was on first, second and third as well as how often he advanced on a wild pitch, passed ball or was thrown out attempting to advance. I broke these runners down into three categories, using Bill James' speed scores. Runners with a speed score less than 3.0 were considered slow, those with a score more than 5.5 were considered fast, and all the rest were considered average. The rates:
Speed Base WP% PB% OA%
Slow 1st 1.49 0.41 0.04
Average 1st 1.56 0.43 0.05
Fast 1st 1.46 0.43 0.05
Slow 2nd 1.53 0.42 0.04
Average 2nd 1.69 0.45 0.04
Fast 2nd 1.72 0.47 0.05
Slow 3rd 1.06 0.24 0.09
Average 3rd 1.24 0.30 0.09
Fast 3rd 1.31 0.32 0.08
Where: Base - the base occupied by the runner at the start of the play
WP% - wild pitch percentage
PB% - passed ball percentage
OA% - out attempting an advance percentage
While fast runners were slightly more likely to advance in these situations, it didn't look as though speed made much difference. This is not to say that I ignored these plays; I simply put them in a bucket separate from stolen base runs. For lack of a better term, I called them miscellaneous runs.
The players from 1960 to 2004 with the most Value-Added stolen base runs:
Name Year Team SB CS VASBR VAMR
Vince Coleman 1985 STL N 110 25 20.0 -0.8
Maury Wills 1962 LA N 104 13 18.6 2.0
Rickey Henderson 1988 NY A 93 13 17.4 3.4
Ron LeFlore 1980 MON N 97 19 16.5 -0.1
Willie Wilson 1980 KC A 79 10 15.1 2.7
Vince Coleman 1986 STL N 107 14 15.0 2.7
Willie Wilson 1979 KC A 83 12 14.1 2.5
Rickey Henderson 1985 NY A 80 10 14.0 4.8
Eric Davis 1986 CIN N 80 11 14.0 3.5
Rickey Henderson 1983 OAK A 108 19 13.2 2.4
Rudy Law 1983 CHI A 77 12 12.8 2.8
Vince Coleman 1987 STL N 109 22 12.3 2.6
Tim Raines 1983 MON N 90 14 12.1 2.8
Tim Raines 1985 MON N 70 9 12.1 2.4
Gary Pettis 1985 CAL A 56 9 11.2 2.6
Ron LeFlore 1979 DET A 78 14 11.1 2.2
Davey Lopes 1975 LA N 77 12 11.0 4.0
Tim Raines 1984 MON N 75 10 11.0 1.5
Juan Samuel 1984 PHI N 72 15 10.7 0.7
Tim Raines 1986 MON N 70 9 10.6 1.9
Where: VASBR - Value Added Stolen Base Runs
VAMR - Value Added Miscellaneous Runs
While our data covers 45 years, all but 2 of the seasons on this list were from one ten-year period, 1979 to 1988.
And those with the lowest number of Value Added stolen base runs:
Name Year Team SB CS VASBR VAMR Jose Cruz 1977 HOU N 44 23 -7.6 1.7 Harold Reynolds 1988 SEA A 35 29 -7.3 1.4 Greg Vaughn 1992 MIL A 15 15 -7.3 1.1 Greg Gross 1974 HOU N 12 20 -7.2 5.0 Steve Henderson 1983 SEA A 10 14 -6.4 0.1 Tony Bernazard 1984 CLE A 20 13 -6.1 0.4 Brett Butler 1991 LA N 38 28 -5.9 4.1 Will Clark 1987 SF N 5 17 -5.8 2.0 Dave Parker 1977 PIT N 17 19 -5.7 0.6 Bill Virdon 1962 PIT N 5 13 -5.5 1.1 Al Oliver 1977 PIT N 13 16 -5.5 0.7 Lee Tinsley 1996 PHI-BOS 8 12 -5.5 -0.4
The league leaders each year:
Name Year Team SB CS VASBR VAMR Luis Aparicio 1960 CHI A 51 8 5.3 1.2 Luis Aparicio 1961 CHI A 53 13 5.7 1.9 Jake Wood 1962 DET A 24 3 3.3 1.7 Luis Aparicio 1963 BAL A 40 6 6.5 2.5 Dick Howser 1964 CLE A 20 7 3.9 3.5 Luis Aparicio 1965 BAL A 26 7 3.8 0.8 Bert Campaneris 1966 KC A 52 10 6.9 3.7 Bert Campaneris 1967 KC A 55 16 8.9 2.1 Davey Johnson 1968 BAL A 7 3 2.9 1.9 Bert Campaneris 1969 OAK A 62 8 6.5 2.1 Amos Otis 1970 KC A 33 2 6.3 0.1 Amos Otis 1971 KC A 52 8 6.7 -0.2 Bert Campaneris 1972 OAK A 52 14 5.1 1.9 Tommy Harper 1973 BOS A 54 14 7.8 1.3 Paul Blair 1974 BAL A 27 9 5.0 1.4 Mickey Rivers 1975 CAL A 70 14 8.8 2.6 Mickey Rivers 1976 NY A 43 7 8.4 1.2 Mitchell Page 1977 OAK A 42 5 6.0 1.9 Julio Cruz 1978 SEA A 59 10 8.1 3.1 Willie Wilson 1979 KC A 83 12 14.1 2.5 Willie Wilson 1980 KC A 79 10 15.1 2.7 Rick Manning 1981 CLE A 25 3 5.6 1.4 Rickey Henderson 1982 OAK A 130 42 6.9 2.5 Rickey Henderson 1983 OAK A 108 19 13.2 2.4 Willie Wilson 1984 KC A 47 5 7.9 1.6 Rickey Henderson 1985 NY A 80 10 14.0 4.8 Gary Pettis 1986 CAL A 50 13 6.0 3.5 Willie Wilson 1987 KC A 59 11 6.8 3.2 Rickey Henderson 1988 NY A 93 13 17.4 3.4 Rickey Henderson 1989 NYA-OAK 77 14 8.4 2.6 Steve Sax 1990 NY A 43 9 6.0 1.0 Rickey Henderson 1991 OAK A 58 18 6.3 1.1 Roberto Alomar 1992 TOR A 49 9 5.8 2.2 Kenny Lofton 1993 CLE A 70 14 9.9 1.0 Kenny Lofton 1994 CLE A 60 12 5.2 3.0 Lance Johnson 1995 CHI A 40 6 7.1 2.8 Kenny Lofton 1996 CLE A 75 17 5.5 2.5 Brian Hunter 1997 DET A 74 18 6.3 3.1 Rickey Henderson 1998 OAK A 66 13 6.3 2.0 Brian Hunter 1999 DET-SEA 44 8 4.6 3.8 Johnny Damon 2000 KC A 46 9 5.1 3.5 Ichiro Suzuki 2001 SEA A 56 14 6.8 1.8 Derek Jeter 2002 NY A 32 3 4.8 1.2 Carlos Beltran 2003 KC A 41 4 7.5 1.4 Carl Crawford 2004 TB A 59 15 5.4 4.1
Name Year Team SB CS VASBR VAMR Maury Wills 1960 LA N 50 12 6.0 0.6 Frank Robinson 1961 CIN N 22 3 3.4 2.0 Maury Wills 1962 LA N 104 13 18.6 2.0 Hank Aaron 1963 MIL N 31 5 4.0 1.4 Hank Aaron 1964 MIL N 22 4 2.8 2.5 Tommy Harper 1965 CIN N 35 6 5.8 3.4 Lou Brock 1966 STL N 74 18 6.5 1.8 Lou Brock 1967 STL N 52 18 5.3 1.8 Lou Brock 1968 STL N 62 12 6.2 1.5 Bobby Bonds 1969 SF N 45 4 7.8 1.3 Bobby Bonds 1970 SF N 48 10 6.2 1.4 Lou Brock 1971 STL N 64 19 5.7 2.4 Bobby Bonds 1972 SF N 44 6 8.5 2.4 Joe Morgan 1973 CIN N 67 15 6.0 2.5 Lou Brock 1974 STL N 118 33 7.7 3.0 Davey Lopes 1975 LA N 77 12 11.0 4.0 Joe Morgan 1976 CIN N 60 9 6.4 2.1 Larry Bowa 1977 PHI N 32 3 6.6 2.9 Davey Lopes 1978 LA N 45 4 9.8 3.5 Omar Moreno 1979 PIT N 77 21 6.5 1.9 Ron LeFlore 1980 MON N 97 19 16.5 -0.1 Tim Raines 1981 MON N 71 11 8.8 2.1 Tim Raines 1982 MON N 78 16 9.0 1.6 Tim Raines 1983 MON N 90 14 12.1 2.8 Tim Raines 1984 MON N 75 10 11.0 1.5 Vince Coleman 1985 STL N 110 25 20.0 -0.8 Vince Coleman 1986 STL N 107 14 15.0 2.7 Vince Coleman 1987 STL N 109 22 12.3 2.6 Vince Coleman 1988 STL N 81 27 8.3 0.9 Vince Coleman 1989 STL N 65 10 5.9 1.0 Vince Coleman 1990 STL N 77 17 4.7 2.8 Marquis Grissom 1991 MON N 76 17 8.6 3.5 Marquis Grissom 1992 MON N 78 13 8.3 3.5 Marquis Grissom 1993 MON N 53 10 7.5 -0.1 Craig Biggio 1994 HOU N 39 4 6.4 2.7 Barry Larkin 1995 CIN N 51 5 8.0 3.4 Walt Weiss 1996 COL N 10 2 3.6 2.3 Tony Womack 1997 PIT N 60 7 8.3 1.1 Tony Womack 1998 PIT N 58 8 7.5 0.4 Tony Womack 1999 ARI N 72 13 8.3 4.5 Tom Goodwin 2000 COL-LAN 55 10 6.0 2.5 Jimmy Rollins 2001 PHI N 46 8 5.6 0.4 Luis Castillo 2002 FLA N 48 15 5.5 3.4 Scott Podsednik 2003 MIL N 43 10 5.4 0.8 Dave Roberts 2004 LA N 33 1 5.6 1.0
And the career leaders:
Name SB CS VASBR VAMR Rickey Henderson 1406 335 118.0 45.5 Tim Raines 806 146 95.3 40.2 Willie Wilson 668 134 89.6 30.1 Vince Coleman 752 177 75.3 19.0 Paul Molitor 504 131 61.1 37.0 Joe Morgan 689 162 59.3 41.7 Lou Brock 938 307 58.9 29.0 Davey Lopes 557 114 56.1 23.5 Ozzie Smith 580 148 53.8 28.1 Ron LeFlore 455 142 47.0 14.6 Eric Davis 349 66 43.3 14.4 Bert Campaneris 649 199 42.9 33.3 Tommy Harper 408 116 36.5 24.6 Barry Larkin 379 77 36.5 33.4 Marquis Grissom 428 115 34.7 25.1 Tony Womack 335 68 34.5 13.0 Roberto Alomar 474 114 33.5 31.1 Amos Otis 341 93 33.3 10.4 Otis Nixon 620 186 33.2 27.5 Cesar Cedeno 550 179 32.8 26.8 Gary Redus 322 83 32.8 14.7
The career trailers:
Name SB CS VASBR VAMR Chet Lemon 58 76 -22.4 17.9 Duane Kuiper 52 71 -21.5 7.4 Bob Bailey 85 83 -21.3 22.8 Greg Gagne 108 96 -18.9 14.1 Tim Wallach 51 66 -18.1 18.0 Tom Brunansky 69 70 -17.7 15.1 Len Randle 156 112 -16.6 13.1 Harold Reynolds 250 138 -16.4 15.2 Jose Offerman 172 100 -16.2 16.1 Jay Johnstone 50 54 -16.1 14.6
Notice that the negative leaders are much closer to zero than the top base runners. I take this to mean that if you're a bad base stealer, eventually you stop running. Also notice that the Value Added Miscellaneous Runs are typically much higher on the "best" list than the "worst".
Speaking of Miscellaneous Runs, here are the top seasonal totals:
Name Year Team SB CS VASBR VAMR Lou Whitaker 1987 DET A 13 5 2.3 7.9 Scott Fletcher 1987 TEX A 13 12 -0.7 7.3 Tony Phillips 1996 CHI A 13 8 -1.8 6.4 Cesar Tovar 1967 MIN A 19 11 1.3 6.3 Glenn Beckert 1970 CHI N 4 1 -0.2 6.3 Lee Maye 1964 MIL N 5 10 -0.8 5.9 Alan Wiggins 1983 SD N 66 13 9.9 5.9 Craig Biggio 2001 HOU N 7 4 0.9 5.9 Chuck Knoblauch 1991 MIN A 25 5 -0.1 5.8 Curt Flood 1967 STL N 2 2 -0.1 5.6
In 1987, Lou Whitaker was the lead runner when 12 wild pitches were thrown and 7 passed balls committed. Two of these occurred with the bases loaded and a total of 6 runs scored on those 19 plays. Scott Fletcher was the lead runner for even more of these plays (16 wild pitches and 4 passed balls), but only 3 runs scored as a result.
It doesn't look like success stealing bases is a common characteristic of these players, as six of the ten had negative Stolen Base Runs.
The top career totals:
Name SB CS VASBR VAMR Pete Rose 198 149 -3.2 48.8 Craig Biggio 396 118 23.9 47.6 Rickey Henderson 1406 335 118.0 45.5 Joe Morgan 689 162 59.3 41.7 Tim Raines 806 146 95.3 40.2 Carl Yastrzemski 168 116 -7.3 39.4 Lou Whitaker 143 75 7.9 38.5 Wade Boggs 24 35 -6.9 38.3 Brett Butler 558 257 -1.8 37.6 Paul Molitor 504 131 61.1 37.0 Tony Phillips 177 114 -5.7 35.9 Rod Carew 353 187 15.3 35.3 Robin Yount 271 105 10.8 35.3 Eddie Murray 110 43 5.5 35.0 Alan Trammell 236 109 3.1 34.3 Barry Larkin 379 77 36.5 33.4 Billy Williams 90 49 2.4 33.3 Bert Campaneris 649 199 42.9 33.3 George Brett 201 97 5.8 32.4 Tony Fernandez 246 138 -10.0 32.3 Rusty Staub 47 33 -4.2 32.1
I'm not sure whether the names on this list justifies my decision to keep these separate from Stolen Base Runs. Six of these players are also on the list of top career base stealers. On the other hand, this list does include several slow players like Boggs, Murray and Staub. (Okay, I admit to extending the list to 21 names so I could include Rusty.) Still, the median Stolen Base Runs of the players on this list is only 5.8.
So how do Value Added Stolen Base Runs compare to our linear weight method? Once again, I will show this through two lists. The first, the players with the greatest positive difference between their Stolen Base Runs and Linear Weight Runs:
Name Year Team SB CS VASBR LWSBR DIFF Ron LeFlore 1980 MON N 97 19 16.5 10.5 6.0 Rickey Henderson 1988 NY A 93 13 17.4 11.6 5.8 Vince Coleman 1985 STL N 110 25 20.0 14.6 5.4 Paul Molitor 1988 MIL A 41 10 8.3 3.3 5.0 Bobby Tolan 1975 SD N 11 13 1.4 -3.4 4.8 Steve Sax 1983 LA N 56 30 2.2 -2.1 4.3 Delino DeShields 1995 LA N 39 14 5.8 1.5 4.3 C. Washington 1976 OAK A 37 20 4.2 -0.0 4.2 Bip Roberts 1989 SD N 21 11 3.4 -0.9 4.2 Lonnie Smith 1982 STL N 68 26 4.2 0.1 4.1 Brett Butler 1988 SF N 43 20 4.5 0.4 4.1 Where: LWSBR - Linear Weight Stolen Base Runs
And those with the greatest negative difference:
Name Year Team SB CS VASBR LWSBR DIFF Kenny Lofton 1992 CLE A 66 12 0.6 6.7 -6.1 Jose Cruz 1977 HOU N 44 23 -7.6 -2.1 -5.5 Tony Bernazard 1984 CLE A 20 13 -6.1 -1.6 -4.5 Mark McLemore 2001 SEA A 39 7 -0.3 4.0 -4.4 Dave Collins 1985 OAK A 29 8 -1.3 3.0 -4.3 Toby Harrah 1975 TEX A 23 9 -2.8 1.3 -4.1 Julio Cruz 1983 SEA-CHA 57 12 2.2 6.2 -4.0 Chuck Knoblauch 1995 MIN A 46 18 -3.7 0.1 -3.8 Greg Vaughn 1992 MIL A 15 15 -7.3 -3.7 -3.7 Don Baylor 1978 CAL A 22 9 -3.1 0.5 -3.7
On the surface, these numbers appear absurd. How could Bobby Tolan, with a success rate of only 45.8% (11 of 24), contribute more runs to his team than Kenny Lofton, successful on 84.6% of his attempts (66 of 78), or Mark McLemore, successful 84.8% of the time (39 of 46)? The answer is two fold: not all stolen bases or caught stealing are created equal. Some are extremely valuable (or costly) and others aren't. In addition, not all bad or good outcomes are reflected in the traditional statistics. Pickoffs, for example, are not counted as caught stealing unless, once picked off, the runner heads for the next base, and balks or errors attempting a pickoff are not credited to base runners.
In 1992, 35 of Lofton's steals were either 1-out or 2-out steals of second base. From the chart at the beginning of the article, we can determine that a 1-out steal of second was worth an average of .136 runs (.646 - .510) and that a 2-out steal of second was worth an average of only .082 runs (.293 - .211). So his 18 1-out and 17 2-out steals of second were worth a total of 3.842 runs. On the other hand, Lofton was picked off first base with no one out 6 times, each one with a cost of .595 runs (.853 - .258), for a total loss of 3.57 runs. So if Lofton had been involved in no other running plays that year, he would have officially had 35 stolen bases and 0 caught stealing with a Value Added worth of only 0.27 runs. He also got picked off on 3 other occasions and, in general, his caught stealings were often for more costly than his stolen bases were valuable.
Bobby Tolan was the other side of this coin. Six times, Tolan was the lead runner when the opposing pitcher balked; no pitcher balked while Lofton was the lead runner. On two occasions, Tolan reached safely when charged with a caught stealing because the fielder mishandled the throw, twice he took an extra base when the catcher threw the ball into centerfield, and he advanced once on an error on a pickoff attempt. Taken collectively, these are 11 positive plays that go into the book as 0 stolen bases and 2 caught stealing.
The largest positive differences over the course of a career:
Name SB CS VASBR LWSBR DIFF Paul Molitor 504 131 61.1 41.6 19.5 Pete Rose 198 149 -3.2 -22.5 19.3 Rod Carew 353 187 15.3 -3.0 18.3 Carney Lansford 224 104 12.1 -1.1 13.2 Willie Wilson 668 134 89.6 76.5 13.1 Ron LeFlore 455 142 47.0 34.2 12.9 Lou Whitaker 143 75 7.9 -4.2 12.1 Tony Phillips 177 114 -5.7 -17.0 11.3 Brian Downing 50 44 1.9 -8.7 10.6 Dave Winfield 223 96 11.7 1.4 10.2
And the largest negative differences:
Name SB CS VASBR LWSBR DIFF Chuck Knoblauch 407 117 5.2 21.0 -15.7 Jose Cruz 317 136 -11.1 2.4 -13.5 Julio Cruz 343 78 26.4 36.6 -10.2 Tony Bernazard 113 55 -11.8 -1.7 -10.1 Von Hayes 253 97 -1.4 8.0 -9.4 Mike Cameron 216 59 2.4 11.4 -9.0 Bert Campaneris 649 199 42.9 51.4 -8.5 Brady Anderson 315 100 4.9 13.0 -8.2 Felix Jose 102 57 -12.9 -5.1 -7.7 Pokey Reese 144 26 7.4 14.5 -7.1 Kenny Lofton 545 145 26.6 33.7 -7.1
If we take the Stolen Base Runs we computed in the last section and add those to the Batting Runs (adjusted for both park and defensive position), we come up with the following top offensive performances from 1960 to 2004:
Name Year Team AB H 2B 3B HR BB OPS A/POS VASBR VATOR Barry Bonds 2001 SF N 476 156 32 2 73 177 1.379 108.2 0.3 108.5 Barry Bonds 2002 SF N 403 149 31 2 46 198 1.381 102.0 0.7 102.6 Barry Bonds 2004 SF N 373 135 27 3 45 232 1.422 96.4 1.0 97.5 Joe Morgan 1976 CIN N 472 151 30 5 27 114 1.020 80.7 6.4 87.0 Mickey Mantle 1961 NY A 514 163 16 6 54 126 1.135 85.9 0.9 86.7 Alex Rodriguez 1996 SEA A 601 215 54 1 36 59 1.045 81.4 1.0 82.4 Joe Morgan 1972 CIN N 552 161 23 4 16 115 .851 77.4 3.8 81.3 Barry Bonds 1996 SF N 517 159 27 3 42 151 1.076 79.3 1.2 80.5 Alex Rodriguez 2000 SEA A 554 175 34 2 41 100 1.026 79.5 0.5 79.9 Joe Morgan 1975 CIN N 498 163 27 6 17 132 .974 71.1 8.0 79.2 Jason Giambi 2000 OAK A 510 170 29 1 43 137 1.123 77.8 0.8 78.7 Mike Piazza 1997 LA N 556 201 32 1 40 69 1.070 77.7 -0.1 77.6 Barry Bonds 1993 SF N 539 181 38 4 46 126 1.136 74.2 1.9 76.1 Robin Yount 1982 MIL A 635 210 46 12 29 54 .957 73.7 1.4 75.0 George Brett 1980 KC A 449 175 33 9 24 58 1.118 72.2 0.8 73.0 Mickey Mantle 1962 NY A 377 121 15 1 30 122 1.091 70.1 1.7 71.7 Sammy Sosa 2001 CHI N 577 189 34 5 64 116 1.174 71.3 -0.8 70.5 Jeff Kent 2000 SF N 587 196 41 7 33 90 1.021 71.1 -1.7 69.4 Mark McGwire 1998 STL N 509 152 21 0 70 162 1.222 69.0 0.4 69.3 Derek Jeter 1999 NY A 627 219 37 9 24 91 .989 68.5 0.4 68.9 Where: VATOR - the final value-added total offensive runs.
In addition to having the top 3 seasons and 5 of the top 13, Barry Bonds also has #26 (2003), #33 (1992), #35 (1998), #55 (1991) and #72 (2000), for a total of 10 of the top 80 seasons.
And the worst:
Name Year Team AB H 2B 3B HR BB OPS A/POS VASBR VATOR Neifi Perez 2002 KC A 554 131 20 4 3 20 .564 -51.0 -2.8 -53.8 George Wright 1985 TEX A 363 69 13 0 2 25 .483 -50.5 -2.2 -52.7 Bill Virdon 1962 PIT N 663 164 27 10 6 36 .631 -45.4 -5.5 -50.9 Scott Brosius 1997 OAK A 479 97 20 1 11 34 .576 -48.7 0.4 -48.3 J.T. Snow 1996 CAL A 575 148 20 1 17 56 .711 -44.6 -2.5 -47.1 Mike Caruso 1999 CHI A 529 132 11 4 2 20 .577 -41.3 -4.9 -46.2 Chris Truby 2002 MON-DET 382 82 18 4 4 10 .552 -42.8 0.1 -42.7 Darin Erstad 1999 ANA A 585 148 22 5 13 47 .683 -41.2 -1.2 -42.4 Derek Bell 1999 HOU N 509 120 22 0 12 50 .656 -43.1 1.6 -41.5 Glenn Wilson 1987 PHI N 569 150 21 2 14 38 .689 -37.4 -2.3 -39.7 Cristian Guzman 1999 MIN A 420 95 12 3 1 22 .543 -38.2 -1.3 -39.5 Doug Glanville 2000 PHI N 637 175 27 6 8 31 .681 -39.6 1.0 -38.6 Mark Kotsay 1999 FLA N 495 134 23 9 8 29 .708 -38.1 0.4 -37.7 Jose Hernandez 2003 3 Teams 519 117 18 3 13 46 .634 -37.9 0.2 -37.7 Don Mattingly 1995 NY A 458 132 32 2 7 40 .754 -37.6 -0.2 -37.7 Paul Householder 1982 CIN N 417 88 11 5 9 30 .592 -34.3 -3.3 -37.6 Vic Power 1961 CLE A 563 151 34 4 5 38 .679 -38.8 1.2 -37.6 Pete O'Brien 1990 SEA A 366 82 18 0 5 44 .622 -37.5 0.0 -37.5 Danny Bautista 1995 DET A 271 55 9 0 7 12 .550 -37.5 0.5 -37.0 Mario Mendoza 1979 SEA A 373 74 10 3 1 9 .466 -36.5 -0.5 -37.0
All in all, factoring in base running did little to change these lists. The same is true for the league leaders.
Name Year Team AB H 2B 3B HR BB OPS A/POS VASBR VATOR Mickey Mantle 1960 NY A 527 145 17 6 40 111 .957 50.0 0.9 51.0 Mickey Mantle 1961 NY A 514 163 16 6 54 126 1.135 85.9 0.9 86.7 Mickey Mantle 1962 NY A 377 121 15 1 30 122 1.091 70.1 1.7 71.7 Al Kaline 1963 DET A 551 172 24 3 27 54 .889 30.1 1.0 31.2 Mickey Mantle 1964 NY A 465 141 25 2 35 99 1.015 58.4 0.1 58.5 Don Buford 1965 CHI A 586 166 22 5 10 67 .747 33.2 0.9 34.1 Frank Robinson 1966 BAL A 576 182 34 2 49 87 1.047 58.3 -2.9 55.4 Carl Yastrzemski 1967 BOS A 579 189 31 4 44 91 1.040 53.0 -0.3 52.7 Bill Freehan 1968 DET A 540 142 24 2 25 65 .819 41.7 -1.1 40.6 Harmon Killebrew 1969 MIN A 555 153 20 2 49 145 1.011 68.2 0.1 68.3 Frank Howard 1970 WAS A 566 160 15 1 44 132 .962 49.2 0.5 49.7 Bobby Murcer 1971 NY A 529 175 25 6 25 91 .969 59.2 0.6 59.9 Dick Allen 1972 CHI A 506 156 28 5 37 99 1.023 51.6 2.7 54.3 Reggie Jackson 1973 OAK A 539 158 28 2 32 76 .914 58.1 0.2 58.3 Rod Carew 1974 MIN A 599 218 30 5 3 74 .879 44.3 2.3 46.6 Toby Harrah 1975 TEX A 522 153 24 1 20 98 .861 56.1 -2.8 53.3 Bobby Grich 1976 BAL A 518 138 31 4 13 86 .790 37.2 0.5 37.7 Rod Carew 1977 MIN A 616 239 38 16 14 69 1.019 60.5 1.5 62.0 Jim Rice 1978 BOS A 677 213 25 15 46 58 .970 37.4 -0.0 37.4 Darrell Porter 1979 KC A 533 155 23 10 20 121 .905 56.7 -1.0 55.7 George Brett 1980 KC A 449 175 33 9 24 58 1.118 72.2 0.8 73.0 Bobby Grich 1981 CAL A 352 107 14 2 22 40 .921 28.8 0.2 29.1 Robin Yount 1982 MIL A 635 210 46 12 29 54 .957 73.7 1.4 75.0 Wade Boggs 1983 BOS A 582 210 44 7 5 92 .931 53.2 1.3 54.5 Cal Ripken 1984 BAL A 641 195 37 7 27 71 .884 56.2 0.7 56.9 George Brett 1985 KC A 550 184 38 5 30 103 1.022 56.6 1.1 57.7 Wade Boggs 1986 BOS A 580 207 47 2 8 105 .939 54.1 -2.1 52.0 Alan Trammell 1987 DET A 597 205 34 3 28 60 .953 56.8 1.5 58.2 Jose Canseco 1988 OAK A 610 187 34 0 42 78 .959 45.0 0.5 45.6 Robin Yount 1989 MIL A 614 195 38 9 21 63 .896 46.3 1.7 48.0 Rickey Henderson 1990 OAK A 489 159 33 3 28 97 1.016 44.9 5.9 50.8 Cal Ripken 1991 BAL A 650 210 46 5 34 53 .940 66.5 0.5 67.1 Frank Thomas 1992 CHI A 573 185 46 2 24 122 .975 48.0 -0.5 47.4 Chris Hoiles 1993 BAL A 419 130 28 0 29 69 1.001 49.5 0.1 49.6 Frank Thomas 1994 CHI A 399 141 34 1 38 109 1.217 49.3 -0.7 48.5 Edgar Martinez 1995 SEA A 511 182 52 0 29 116 1.107 68.2 -0.6 67.6 Alex Rodriguez 1996 SEA A 601 215 54 1 36 59 1.045 81.4 1.0 82.4 Ken Griffey 1997 SEA A 608 185 34 3 56 76 1.028 58.6 0.7 59.3 Derek Jeter 1998 NY A 626 203 25 8 19 57 .864 57.0 2.4 59.4 Derek Jeter 1999 NY A 627 219 37 9 24 91 .989 68.5 0.4 68.9 Alex Rodriguez 2000 SEA A 554 175 34 2 41 100 1.026 79.5 0.5 79.9 Jason Giambi 2001 OAK A 520 178 47 2 38 129 1.137 67.5 -0.7 66.8 Manny Ramirez 2002 BOS A 436 152 31 0 33 73 1.097 61.2 0.7 61.8 Jorge Posada 2003 NY A 481 135 24 0 30 93 .922 56.2 0.2 56.4 Melvin Mora 2004 BAL A 550 187 41 0 27 66 .981 42.5 -0.3 42.2
Name Year Team AB H 2B 3B HR BB OPS A/POS VASBR VATOR Eddie Mathews 1960 MIL N 548 152 19 7 39 111 .948 62.9 0.5 63.4 Willie Mays 1961 SF N 572 176 32 3 40 81 .977 51.5 -1.7 49.8 Willie Mays 1962 SF N 621 189 36 5 49 78 .999 46.1 3.4 49.5 Hank Aaron 1963 MIL N 631 201 29 4 44 78 .977 61.3 4.0 65.3 Willie Mays 1964 SF N 578 171 21 9 47 82 .990 50.5 2.0 52.5 Pete Rose 1965 CIN N 670 209 35 11 11 69 .828 48.4 -0.4 48.0 Dick Allen 1966 PHI N 524 166 25 10 40 68 1.027 53.5 -0.1 53.3 Roberto Clemente 1967 PIT N 585 209 26 10 23 41 .954 51.7 1.9 53.5 Willie McCovey 1968 SF N 523 153 16 4 36 72 .923 37.0 0.1 37.1 Willie McCovey 1969 SF N 491 157 26 2 45 121 1.108 64.7 0.2 64.9 Denis Menke 1970 HOU N 562 171 26 6 13 82 .833 57.9 -0.2 57.8 Joe Torre 1971 STL N 634 230 34 8 24 63 .976 59.6 1.1 60.6 Joe Morgan 1972 CIN N 552 161 23 4 16 115 .851 77.4 3.8 81.3 Joe Morgan 1973 CIN N 576 167 35 2 26 111 .899 61.8 6.0 67.8 Joe Morgan 1974 CIN N 512 150 31 3 22 120 .921 47.8 6.1 53.9 Joe Morgan 1975 CIN N 498 163 27 6 17 132 .974 71.1 8.0 79.2 Joe Morgan 1976 CIN N 472 151 30 5 27 114 1.020 80.7 6.4 87.0 Joe Morgan 1977 CIN N 521 150 21 6 22 117 .895 45.0 1.5 46.5 Dave Parker 1978 PIT N 581 194 32 12 30 57 .979 38.9 2.4 41.3 Dave Winfield 1979 SD N 597 184 27 10 34 85 .953 44.1 -0.7 43.4 Ted Simmons 1980 STL N 495 150 33 2 21 59 .880 37.4 0.5 37.9 Mike Schmidt 1981 PHI N 354 112 19 2 31 73 1.080 39.9 1.3 41.2 Pedro Guerrero 1982 LA N 575 175 27 5 32 65 .914 36.9 1.1 38.0 Jose Cruz 1983 HOU N 594 189 28 8 14 65 .848 44.9 -1.6 43.3 Jose Cruz 1984 HOU N 600 187 28 13 12 73 .842 42.0 1.3 43.2 Tom Herr 1985 STL N 596 180 38 3 8 80 .795 45.1 6.2 51.3 Mike Schmidt 1986 PHI N 552 160 29 1 37 89 .937 35.4 -0.6 34.8 D. Strawberry 1987 NY N 532 151 32 5 39 97 .981 53.3 2.2 55.5 Barry Larkin 1988 CIN N 588 174 32 5 12 41 .776 30.1 5.8 36.0 Howard Johnson 1989 NY N 571 164 41 3 36 77 .928 47.7 5.3 53.0 Barry Bonds 1990 PIT N 519 156 32 3 33 93 .970 45.7 2.2 47.9 Barry Bonds 1991 PIT N 510 149 28 5 25 107 .924 53.3 5.2 58.5 Barry Bonds 1992 PIT N 473 147 36 5 34 127 1.080 60.3 4.0 64.3 Barry Bonds 1993 SF N 539 181 38 4 46 126 1.136 74.2 1.9 76.1 Jeff Bagwell 1994 HOU N 400 147 32 2 39 65 1.201 55.4 1.1 56.4 Mike Piazza 1995 LA N 434 150 17 0 32 39 1.006 51.4 0.3 51.7 Barry Bonds 1996 SF N 517 159 27 3 42 151 1.076 79.3 1.2 80.5 Mike Piazza 1997 LA N 556 201 32 1 40 69 1.070 77.7 -0.1 77.6 Mark McGwire 1998 STL N 509 152 21 0 70 162 1.222 69.0 0.4 69.3 Chipper Jones 1999 ATL N 567 181 41 1 45 126 1.074 49.6 4.5 54.1 Jeff Kent 2000 SF N 587 196 41 7 33 90 1.021 71.1 -1.7 69.4 Barry Bonds 2001 SF N 476 156 32 2 73 177 1.379 108.2 0.3 108.5 Barry Bonds 2002 SF N 403 149 31 2 46 198 1.381 102.0 0.7 102.6 Barry Bonds 2003 SF N 390 133 22 1 45 148 1.278 64.8 1.3 66.1 Barry Bonds 2004 SF N 373 135 27 3 45 232 1.422 96.4 1.0 97.5
Factoring in Stolen Base Runs caused the following changes in the league leaders:
1963 AL Al Kaline over Earl Battey 1974 AL Rod Carew over Jeff Burroughs 1978 AL Jim Rice over Larry Hisle 1993 AL Chris Hoiles over John Olerud 2004 AL Melvin Mora over Carlos Guillen 1962 NL Willie Mays over Tommy Davis 1974 NL Joe Morgan over Johnny Bench 1985 NL Tommy Herr over Pedro Guerrero 1988 NL Barry Larkin over Darryl Strawberry 1989 NL Howard Johnson over Will Clark 1999 NL Chipper Jones over Brian Giles
I thought it might be fun to look at the worst marks each year.
Name Year Team AB H 2B 3B HR BB OPS A/POS VASBR VATOR Ken Hamlin 1960 KC A 428 96 10 2 2 44 .568 -20.6 -1.7 -22.4 Vic Power 1961 CLE A 563 151 34 4 5 38 .679 -38.8 1.2 -37.6 Jim Piersall 1962 WAS A 471 115 20 4 4 39 .630 -30.0 -1.4 -31.4 Lou Clinton 1963 BOS A 560 130 23 7 22 49 .710 -26.1 -0.6 -26.7 Tom Satriano 1964 LA A 255 51 9 0 1 30 .529 -22.4 -1.6 -24.0 Mike Hershberger 1965 KC A 494 114 15 5 5 37 .601 -33.0 -0.3 -33.4 Sam Bowens 1966 BAL A 243 51 9 1 6 17 .605 -21.2 0.3 -20.9 Jose Tartabull 1967 BOS A 247 55 1 2 0 23 .530 -25.1 0.4 -24.7 George Scott 1968 BOS A 350 60 14 0 3 26 .473 -33.0 -2.0 -35.1 Aur. Rodriguez 1969 CAL A 561 130 17 2 7 32 .579 -27.6 -0.3 -27.9 Horace Clarke 1970 NY A 686 172 24 2 4 35 .595 -32.6 2.3 -30.3 Aur. Rodriguez 1971 DET A 604 153 30 7 15 27 .688 -29.6 -2.4 -31.9 Del Unser 1972 CLE A 383 91 12 0 1 28 .565 -17.2 -2.4 -19.5 Mike Epstein 1973 TEX-CAL 397 83 11 2 9 48 .619 -25.6 0.4 -25.2 Deron Johnson 1974 3 Teams 351 60 4 2 13 32 .542 -33.4 0.3 -33.1 Paul Blair 1975 BAL A 440 96 13 4 5 25 .557 -28.3 -1.1 -29.4 Paul Blair 1976 BAL A 375 74 16 0 3 22 .509 -34.5 1.3 -33.2 Rob Picciolo 1977 OAK A 419 84 12 3 2 9 .475 -30.1 -1.2 -31.3 Leroy Stanton 1978 SEA A 302 55 11 0 3 34 .514 -25.8 -1.3 -27.1 Mario Mendoza 1979 SEA A 373 74 10 3 1 9 .466 -36.5 -0.5 -37.0 Hosken Powell 1980 MIN A 485 127 17 5 6 32 .666 -26.9 0.7 -26.2 Danny Ainge 1981 TOR A 246 46 6 2 0 23 .486 -20.4 -1.0 -21.4 Larry Milbourne 1982 3 Teams 416 107 13 5 2 20 .616 -23.5 -3.1 -26.6 Rick Manning 1983 CLE-MIL 569 140 20 4 4 38 .609 -29.0 0.7 -28.4 Bob Boone 1984 CAL A 450 91 16 1 3 25 .504 -31.9 -1.0 -32.9 George Wright 1985 TEX A 363 69 13 0 2 25 .483 -50.5 -2.2 -52.7 Tim Hulett 1986 CHI A 520 120 16 5 17 21 .639 -35.1 -0.4 -35.5 Angel Salazar 1987 KC A 317 65 7 0 2 6 .465 -34.7 -1.0 -35.7 Billy Ripken 1988 BAL A 512 106 18 1 2 33 .518 -28.9 0.1 -28.7 Cory Snyder 1989 CLE A 489 105 17 0 18 23 .611 -31.0 -1.1 -32.2 Pete O'Brien 1990 SEA A 366 82 18 0 5 44 .622 -37.5 0.0 -37.5 Billy Ripken 1991 BAL A 287 62 11 1 0 15 .515 -29.0 -0.4 -29.4 Steve Sax 1992 CHI A 567 134 26 4 4 43 .607 -30.4 -0.4 -30.8 Dave McCarty 1993 MIN A 350 75 15 2 2 19 .542 -35.2 -1.7 -36.9 Dan Wilson 1994 SEA A 282 61 14 2 3 10 .556 -26.4 -1.0 -27.4 Don Mattingly 1995 NY A 458 132 32 2 7 40 .754 -37.6 -0.2 -37.7 J.T. Snow 1996 CAL A 575 148 20 1 17 56 .711 -44.6 -2.5 -47.1 Scott Brosius 1997 OAK A 479 97 20 1 11 34 .576 -48.7 0.4 -48.3 John Flaherty 1998 TB A 304 63 11 0 3 22 .534 -34.7 -1.1 -35.8 Mike Caruso 1999 CHI A 529 132 11 4 2 20 .577 -41.3 -4.9 -46.2 Ron Coomer 2000 MIN A 544 147 29 1 16 36 .733 -34.8 1.0 -33.8 Shea Hillenbrand 2001 BOS A 468 123 20 2 12 13 .682 -26.2 -1.9 -28.0 Neifi Perez 2002 KC A 554 131 20 4 3 20 .564 -51.0 -2.8 -53.8 Shane Halter 2003 DET A 360 78 5 2 12 27 .611 -30.1 -1.2 -31.2 Scott Spiezio 2004 SEA A 367 79 12 3 10 36 .634 -28.8 0.2 -28.6
Name Year Team AB H 2B 3B HR BB OPS A/POS VASBR VATOR Ken Walters 1960 PHI N 426 102 10 0 8 16 .585 -36.5 -0.3 -36.8 Charlie James 1961 STL N 349 89 19 2 4 15 .644 -29.3 -0.6 -29.9 Bill Virdon 1962 PIT N 663 164 27 10 6 36 .631 -45.4 -5.5 -50.9 Bob Lillis 1963 HOU N 469 93 13 1 1 15 .466 -25.9 -0.0 -25.9 Bill Virdon 1964 PIT N 473 115 11 3 3 30 .585 -29.6 -1.5 -31.0 Bob Aspromonte 1965 HOU N 578 152 15 2 5 38 .632 -31.8 -0.9 -32.7 Bob Aspromonte 1966 HOU N 560 141 16 3 8 35 .631 -27.8 -1.3 -29.1 Donn Clendenon 1967 PIT N 478 119 15 2 13 34 .668 -24.3 -1.1 -25.3 Hal Lanier 1968 SF N 486 100 14 1 0 12 .461 -30.9 -0.1 -31.0 Jesus Alou 1969 HOU N 452 112 19 4 5 15 .617 -31.5 -0.9 -32.4 Tommy Helms 1970 CIN N 575 136 21 1 1 21 .543 -34.8 0.1 -34.8 Sonny Jackson 1971 ATL N 547 141 20 5 2 35 .626 -29.4 -0.2 -29.6 Randy Hundley 1972 CHI N 357 78 12 0 5 22 .555 -24.4 0.1 -24.2 Bobby Tolan 1973 CIN N 457 94 14 2 9 27 .555 -34.0 -2.1 -36.0 Dave Roberts 1974 SD N 318 53 10 1 5 32 .497 -34.4 -0.1 -34.5 Ken Reitz 1975 STL N 592 159 25 1 5 22 .637 -31.8 -0.5 -32.3 Del Unser 1976 NYN-MON 496 113 19 4 12 29 .624 -29.5 -0.1 -29.6 Jerry Royster 1977 ATL N 445 96 10 2 6 38 .566 -31.8 0.3 -31.5 Dale Murphy 1978 ATL N 530 120 14 3 23 42 .679 -22.9 -2.9 -25.8 Warren Cromartie 1979 MON N 659 181 46 5 8 38 .709 -27.7 -2.0 -29.7 Omar Moreno 1980 PIT N 676 168 20 13 2 57 .631 -34.9 1.9 -33.0 Doug Flynn 1981 NY N 325 72 12 4 1 11 .539 -20.1 0.0 -20.0 Paul Householder 1982 CIN N 417 88 11 5 9 30 .592 -34.3 -3.3 -37.6 Doug Flynn 1983 MON N 452 107 18 4 0 19 .561 -29.6 -0.2 -29.8 Ron Oester 1984 CIN N 553 134 26 3 3 41 .612 -24.7 1.0 -23.8 Terry Pendleton 1985 STL N 559 134 16 3 5 37 .591 -24.4 -1.1 -25.5 Rafael Ramirez 1986 ATL N 496 119 21 1 8 21 .608 -33.3 1.0 -32.4 Glenn Wilson 1987 PHI N 569 150 21 2 14 38 .689 -37.4 -2.3 -39.7 Chris James 1988 PHI N 566 137 24 1 19 31 .671 -31.0 -2.4 -33.4 Todd Benzinger 1989 CIN N 628 154 28 3 17 44 .674 -31.4 -3.5 -34.9 Eric Yelding 1990 HOU N 511 130 9 5 1 39 .602 -23.0 -1.9 -24.9 Andres Galarraga 1991 MON N 375 82 13 2 9 23 .604 -29.6 -1.6 -31.2 Jose Lind 1992 PIT N 468 110 14 1 0 26 .544 -26.4 0.1 -26.3 Eric Karros 1993 LA N 619 153 27 2 23 34 .696 -35.6 -0.1 -35.7 James Mouton 1994 HOU N 310 76 11 0 2 27 .615 -27.0 3.1 -23.9 Jose Oliva 1995 ATL-SLN 183 26 5 0 7 12 .486 -25.0 0.0 -25.0 Charles Johnson 1996 FLA N 386 84 13 1 13 40 .649 -30.2 0.2 -30.0 Jose Guillen 1997 PIT N 498 133 20 5 14 17 .712 -27.9 -0.0 -27.9 Travis Lee 1998 ARI N 562 151 20 2 22 67 .775 -29.4 1.2 -28.2 Derek Bell 1999 HOU N 509 120 22 0 12 50 .656 -43.1 1.6 -41.5 Doug Glanville 2000 PHI N 637 175 27 6 8 31 .681 -39.6 1.0 -38.6 Alex Ochoa 2001 CIN-COL 536 148 30 7 8 45 .737 -29.5 -1.6 -31.1 Vinny Castilla 2002 ATL N 543 126 23 2 12 22 .616 -34.4 0.7 -33.7 Jose Hernandez 2003 3 Teams 519 117 18 3 13 46 .634 -37.9 0.2 -37.7 Richard Hidalgo 2004 HOU-NYN 523 125 26 3 25 44 .745 -29.8 -0.7 -30.5
No player trailed his league more than twice. Those doing it twice include: Bob Aspromonte, Paul Blair, Doug Flynn, Billy Ripken, Aurelio Rodriguez, Bill Virdon and Del Unser.
The second lowest run total in the 1970 National League belonged to Lee May. His line:
Name Year Team AB H 2B 3B HR BB OPS A/POS VASBR VATOR Lee May 1970 CIN N 605 153 34 2 34 38 .782 -32.7 -0.2 -32.9
I thought it surprising that a player with 34 home runs (and 70 extra-base hits) could finish so low in these rankings. He was hurt by his low walk total, on-base percentage, and a .175 batting average (along with a .598 OPS) with runners in scoring position. So even before we got to the positional adjustment, Lee May was below average in Value Added Runs. But it was the fact that he played first-base that catapulted him down to the next-to-last spot in the overall rankings.
So here's the flip side of Denis Menke that year, how the regular first basemen in the NL hit in 1970:
Name Year Team AB H 2B 3B HR BB OPS VABR IPF A/BPF Willie McCovey 1970 SF N 495 143 39 2 39 137 1.056 66.1 .996 66.6 Wes Parker 1970 LA N 614 196 47 4 10 79 .850 45.5 .935 54.4 Jim Hickman 1970 CHI N 514 162 33 4 32 93 1.001 58.5 1.137 42.9 Dick Allen 1970 STL N 459 128 17 5 34 71 .937 41.1 1.037 37.4 Orlando Cepeda 1970 ATL N 567 173 33 0 34 47 .908 33.8 1.056 28.1 Bob Robertson 1970 PIT N 390 112 19 4 27 51 .931 25.1 .973 27.3 Donn Clendenon 1970 NY N 396 114 18 3 22 39 .863 26.2 .998 26.4 Ron Fairly 1970 MON N 385 111 19 0 15 72 .857 23.1 1.006 22.6 Nate Colbert 1970 SD N 572 148 17 6 38 56 .836 12.7 .967 15.7 Deron Johnson 1970 PHI N 574 147 28 3 27 72 .794 10.7 .986 11.9 Bob Watson 1970 HOU N 327 89 19 2 11 24 .768 6.1 .962 8.0 Lee May 1970 CIN N 605 153 34 2 34 38 .782 -8.8 1.010 -9.5
It also surprised me that the 1970 Reds, a team that ran away with their division and won 102 games, would have the two worst offensive players in the league, relative to their position. Here are the regulars for the Reds that season:
Name Year Team AB H 2B 3B HR BB OPS A/POS VASBR VATOR Tony Perez 1970 CIN N 587 186 28 6 40 83 .990 41.4 2.3 43.6 Johnny Bench 1970 CIN N 605 177 35 4 45 54 .932 42.7 -0.4 42.3 Bobby Tolan 1970 CIN N 589 186 34 6 16 62 .860 19.9 5.9 25.8 Bernie Carbo 1970 CIN N 365 113 19 3 21 94 1.004 24.3 0.5 24.8 Pete Rose 1970 CIN N 649 205 37 9 15 73 .855 1.1 1.5 2.6 Woody Woodward 1970 CIN N 264 59 8 3 1 20 .568 -5.7 -0.1 -5.8 Dave Concepcion 1970 CIN N 265 69 6 3 1 23 .641 -8.6 0.8 -7.8 Lee May 1970 CIN N 605 153 34 2 34 38 .782 -32.7 -0.2 -32.9 Tommy Helms 1970 CIN N 575 136 21 1 1 21 .543 -34.8 0.1 -34.8
One thing I hadn't realized was that the 1970 Reds weren't a great offensive team, scoring only about 40 more runs than average. And it looks as though outstanding seasons from Perez and Bench, along with fine years from Tolan and Carbo, more than made up for May and Helms.
The top overall career marks:
Name AB H 2B 3B HR BB OPS A/POS VASBR VATOR Barry Bonds 9098 2730 563 77 703 2302 1.053 972.9 30.6 1003.5 Joe Morgan 9277 2517 449 96 268 1865 0.819 701.6 59.3 760.9 Rickey Henderson 10961 3055 510 66 297 2190 0.820 423.3 118.0 541.3 Mike Piazza 5805 1829 285 6 378 666 0.947 521.5 -2.6 518.9 Frank Thomas 6851 2113 444 11 436 1450 0.996 493.7 -0.2 493.5 Hank Aaron 8840 2634 419 52 576 1121 0.927 460.2 16.5 476.7 i Alex Rodriguez 5590 1707 309 24 381 639 0.955 431.7 17.1 448.8 Reggie Jackson 9864 2584 463 49 563 1375 0.846 450.9 -5.9 445.0 Frank Robinson 7729 2263 416 51 452 1181 0.928 437.7 2.0 439.7 i Ken Griffey 7379 2156 400 36 501 984 0.937 431.8 4.2 436.0 Willie Mays 6807 1992 319 61 410 959 0.918 420.5 7.4 427.9 i Edgar Martinez 7213 2247 514 15 309 1283 0.933 427.4 0.0 427.4 George Brett 10349 3154 665 137 317 1096 0.857 414.1 5.8 419.9 Gary Sheffield 7302 2175 386 24 415 1202 0.928 413.4 5.1 418.4 Mike Schmidt 8352 2234 408 59 548 1507 0.908 411.7 -0.3 411.5 Rod Carew 9315 3053 445 112 92 1018 0.822 396.1 15.3 411.4 Barry Larkin 7937 2340 441 76 198 939 0.815 363.1 36.5 399.6 Robin Yount 11008 3142 583 126 251 966 0.772 384.1 10.8 394.9 Wade Boggs 9180 3010 578 61 118 1412 0.858 397.2 -6.9 390.3 Mark McGwire 6187 1626 252 6 583 1317 0.982 383.6 -0.1 383.5 Craig Biggio 9221 2639 564 51 234 1060 0.807 356.0 23.9 379.9 Jeff Bagwell 7697 2289 484 32 446 1383 0.951 375.1 2.8 377.9 Lou Whitaker 8570 2369 420 65 244 1197 0.789 358.5 7.9 366.4 Mickey Mantle 3624 1023 136 18 256 841 0.957 352.7 3.2 355.8 i Cal Ripken 11551 3184 603 44 431 1129 0.788 360.5 -5.5 355.0 i - incomplete
Barry Bonds is head and shoulders above everyone, while Joe Morgan is head and shoulders above everyone not named Barry Bonds. The difference between Bonds and Rickey Henderson is about the same as the difference between Henderson and Pete Ward. Of course, Hank Aaron, Willie Mays and Mickey Mantle will move up once we have the 1950s included.
The worst career marks:
Name AB H 2B 3B HR BB OPS A/POS VASBR VATOR Aur. Rodriguez 6611 1570 287 46 124 324 0.626 -257.7 -6.4 -264.1 Ken Reitz 4777 1243 243 12 68 184 0.649 -197.4 -6.6 -204.0 Bill Buckner 9397 2715 498 49 174 450 0.729 -191.1 2.9 -188.2 Doug Flynn 3853 918 115 39 7 151 0.560 -179.4 -4.1 -183.5 Hal Lanier 3703 843 111 20 8 136 0.529 -182.1 -1.0 -183.1 Neifi Perez 4190 1129 188 59 52 201 0.681 -170.1 -9.9 -179.9 Rey Sanchez 4807 1305 192 32 15 227 0.642 -174.5 -5.3 -179.8 Ed Brinkman 6045 1355 201 38 60 444 0.580 -162.7 -11.3 -174.0 Omar Moreno 4992 1257 171 87 37 387 0.649 -182.3 9.2 -173.1 Royce Clayton 6208 1598 291 50 105 483 0.684 -158.1 -3.8 -161.9 Ozzie Guillen 6686 1764 275 69 28 239 0.626 -142.6 -13.0 -155.6 Alfredo Griffin 6780 1688 245 78 24 338 0.604 -139.0 -15.7 -154.7 Jesus Alou 4345 1216 170 26 32 138 0.658 -142.8 -9.5 -152.3 Kevin Young 3897 1007 235 17 144 336 0.762 -145.3 -5.5 -150.8 Doug Glanville 3964 1100 166 32 59 208 0.695 -163.4 13.7 -149.7 Ed Kranepool 5436 1418 225 25 118 454 0.693 -143.9 -4.5 -148.4 Rick Manning 5248 1349 189 43 56 471 0.658 -153.9 8.1 -145.9 Vince Coleman 5406 1425 176 89 28 477 0.668 -218.1 75.3 -142.8 Bob Aspromonte 4368 1103 135 26 60 333 0.644 -131.8 -6.3 -138.1 i Bill Virdon 3182 827 120 41 39 228 0.668 -128.5 -7.4 -135.9 i Tom Goodwin 3846 1029 125 39 24 365 0.671 -149.7 14.0 -135.7 Rey Ordonez 3115 767 129 17 12 191 0.600 -129.3 -5.9 -135.2 Jerry Morales 4528 1173 199 36 95 366 0.695 -118.3 -15.1 -133.3 Tony Pena 6489 1687 298 27 107 455 0.673 -119.4 -12.6 -132.0 Brian Hunter 3347 882 146 28 25 243 0.660 -150.2 18.8 -131.4 i - incomplete
Seasonal and career Value Added batting data for all players from 1960 to 2004 is here.
I was initially reluctant to apply the Value Added method to pitching since it seemed that (at least for starting pitchers) it would primarily reflect the number of runs (both earned and unearned) allowed above or below league average. Since we have easier ways of getting this, I wasn't going to pursue it. I finally decided that it might be interesting. For starting pitchers, it would remove the relief pitcher from the equation. The book would be closed on a pitcher as soon as he left a game; he is charged the number of expected runs a team might score from the situation he's leaving. And for a relief pitcher, it does provide some insight into how he deals with inherited runners. For example, given the following chart of expected runs:
MenOn Number of Outs
FST 0 1 2
--- .462 .250 .092
x-- .803 .493 .216
-x- 1.053 .652 .315
xx- 1.405 .814 .412
--x 1.308 .861 .341
x-x 1.552 1.071 .497
-xx 1.935 1.351 .603
xxx 2.188 1.445 .741
A pitcher who started an inning and left with no outs and the bases loaded would be charged with 1.726 ( 2.188 - .462 ) runs. A relief pitcher who came into the game at this point and struck out the next two hitters would have a value of -1.447 ( .741 - 2.188 ), while a subsequent pitcher who gave up a grand-slam home run before retiring the side would be charged with 3.259 ( 4.000 - .741 ) runs.
I decided to be consistent with my approach for batting and stolen base runs and give the pitcher credit (or blame) for anything that happened while he was on the mound - including errors committed by his defense. One thing that troubled me about this decision is that while a hitter bats against a representative sampling of all the fielders in the league, a pitcher is stuck with his defense the entire season. So if a batter reaches base via error more often than another player, he's probably hitting into more difficult chances; if a pitcher gives up more errors than another, he might simply have a lousy defense. On the other hand, we usually see as much variation in unearned runs among pitchers on the same team as we do among pitchers on different teams. It's my feeling that the number of errors a pitcher yields is primarily a product of the type of pitcher he is, not the kind of fielders he has behind him. A bad defense is more likely to turn outs into hits than it is to turn outs into errors. You often hear people assert that a great fielder will get to 50 or 60 more balls than a bad fielder - you never see this kind of spread in their errors. As a matter of fact, fielders with great range often commit more errors than those with poor range.
I decided to handle the missing games by taking the difference between the runs allowed by the pitcher and the average number of runs a pitcher in the league would average over the number of innings pitched.
Using these methods, a bad pitcher will accumulate a high number of pitching runs and a good one will end up with a negative total. I followed the lead of the traditional pitching runs and inverted the number, converting it from pitching runs to runs prevented, so that a high number would be better than a low one.
Here are the top seasons in Value Added Runs Prevented from 1960 to 2004:
Name Year Team G GS IP H R ER BB K VARP
Pedro Martinez 2000 BOS A 29 29 217 128 44 42 32 284 86.2
Roger Clemens 1997 TOR A 34 34 264 204 65 60 68 292 80.9
Dwight Gooden 1985 NY N 35 35 276.2 198 51 47 69 268 74.8
Sandy Koufax 1966 LA N 41 41 323 241 74 62 77 317 73.8
Dean Chance 1964 LA A 46 35 278.1 194 56 51 86 207 70.1
Greg Maddux 1995 ATL N 28 28 209.2 147 39 38 23 181 69.1
Pedro Martinez 1999 BOS A 31 29 213.1 160 56 49 37 313 69.1
Jim Palmer 1975 BAL A 39 38 323 253 87 75 80 193 65.9
Bob Gibson 1968 STL N 34 34 304.2 198 49 38 62 268 65.5
Ron Guidry 1978 NY A 35 35 273.2 187 61 53 72 248 65.3
Randy Johnson 1999 ARI N 35 35 271.2 207 86 75 70 364 64.8
Sandy Koufax 1963 LA N 40 40 311 214 68 65 58 306 63.6
Steve Carlton 1972 PHI N 41 41 346.1 257 84 76 87 310 63.6
Greg Maddux 1997 ATL N 33 33 232.2 200 58 57 20 177 63.3
Kevin Brown 1996 FLA N 32 32 233 187 60 49 33 159 61.8
Vida Blue 1971 OAK A 39 39 312 209 73 63 88 301 61.5
Sandy Koufax 1965 LA N 43 41 335.2 216 90 76 71 382 61.0
Tom Seaver 1971 NY N 36 35 286.1 210 61 56 61 289 60.7
Greg Maddux 1994 ATL N 25 25 202 150 44 35 31 156 60.7
Johan Santana 2004 MIN A 34 34 228 156 70 66 54 265 60.6
Tom Seaver 1973 NY N 36 36 290 219 74 67 64 251 58.6
Randy Johnson 2001 ARI N 35 34 249.2 181 74 69 71 372 58.6
Pedro Martinez 1997 MON N 31 31 241.1 158 65 51 67 305 58.4
Randy Johnson 1995 SEA A 30 30 214.1 159 65 59 65 294 57.8
Jim Palmer 1973 BAL A 38 37 296.1 225 86 79 113 158 57.1
Where: G - games pitched GS - games started IP - innings pitched
H - hits allowed R - runs allowed ER - earned runs allowed
BB - walks K - strikeout
VARP - value added runs prevented
And the worst:
Name Year Team G GS IP H R ER BB K VARP Steve Blass 1973 PIT N 23 18 88.2 109 98 97 84 27 -54.1 Pedro Astacio 1998 COL N 35 34 209.1 245 160 145 74 170 -49.6 Jeff Fassero 1999 SEA-TEX 37 27 156.1 208 135 125 83 114 -47.5 Mike Hampton 2002 COL N 30 30 178.2 228 135 122 91 74 -46.4 Lloyd Allen 1973 CAL-TEX 28 5 49.2 73 69 52 44 29 -44.9 Andy Larkin 1998 FLA N 17 14 74.2 101 87 80 55 43 -43.8 Joe Coleman 1975 DET A 31 31 201 234 137 124 85 125 -42.7 Todd Van Poppel 1996 OAK-DET 37 15 99.1 139 107 100 62 53 -42.7 Jack Lamabe 1964 BOS A 39 25 177.1 235 123 116 57 109 -42.4 Roy Halladay 2000 TOR A 19 13 67.2 107 87 80 42 44 -42.4 Darryl Kile 1999 COL N 32 32 190.2 225 150 140 109 116 -41.5 Jim Abbott 1996 CAL A 27 23 142 171 128 118 78 58 -41.2 Mike Moore 1995 DET A 25 25 132.2 179 118 111 68 64 -41.1 Ross Grimsley 1980 MON-CLE 25 18 116 164 94 85 36 29 -40.7 Ken Schrom 1987 CLE A 32 29 153.2 185 126 111 57 61 -40.4 Jaime Navarro 1998 CHI A 37 27 172.2 223 135 122 77 71 -40.0 Jose Lima 2000 HOU N 33 33 196.1 251 152 145 68 124 -39.3 Terry Mulholland 1995 SF N 29 24 149 190 112 96 38 65 -39.2 Steve Sparks 2002 DET A 32 30 189 238 134 116 67 98 -39.1 Ron Bryant 1974 SF N 41 23 126.2 142 92 79 68 75 -38.9 Brian Bohanon 1999 COL N 33 33 197.1 236 146 136 92 120 -38.9 Jim O'Toole 1965 CIN N 29 22 127.2 154 98 84 47 71 -38.7 Byron McLaughlin 1980 SEA A 45 4 90.2 124 74 69 50 41 -38.5 Willie Fraser 1988 CAL A 34 32 194.2 203 129 117 80 86 -38.3 Dick Pole 1978 SEA A 21 18 98.2 122 82 71 41 41 -38.2
Notice that these lists, much like the batting ones earlier, are well represented by recent years. When a lot of runs are scored, pitchers have more of an opportunity to allow both far fewer and far more runs than average.
Fortunately, there's only one adjustment to make to this and that is for the park factor. I use the same approach as I did for batting runs: compute an individual park factor for each pitcher by weighting each of the plate appearances against him by the park factor where it took place. After this adjustment, here are the top seasons:
Name Year Team G GS IP H R ER BB K VARP IPF A/BPF
Pedro Martinez 2000 BOS A 29 29 217 128 44 42 32 284 86.2 1.022 86.7
Roger Clemens 1997 TOR A 34 34 264 204 65 60 68 292 80.9 .992 80.5
Dwight Gooden 1985 NY N 35 35 276.2 198 51 47 69 268 74.8 .981 73.9
Pedro Martinez 1999 BOS A 31 29 213.1 160 56 49 37 313 69.1 1.039 70.9
Greg Maddux 1995 ATL N 28 28 209.2 147 39 38 23 181 69.1 1.018 69.6
Sandy Koufax 1966 LA N 41 41 323 241 74 62 77 317 73.8 .895 65.7
Dean Chance 1964 LA A 46 35 278.1 194 56 51 86 207 70.1 .900 64.8
Steve Carlton 1972 PHI N 41 41 346.1 257 84 76 87 310 63.6 1.015 64.8
Randy Johnson 2001 ARI N 35 34 249.2 181 74 69 71 372 58.6 1.093 64.4
Randy Johnson 1999 ARI N 35 35 271.2 207 86 75 70 364 64.8 .990 64.0
Bob Gibson 1968 STL N 34 34 304.2 198 49 38 62 268 65.5 .951 63.2
Ron Guidry 1978 NY A 35 35 273.2 187 61 53 72 248 65.3 .961 63.0
Greg Maddux 1997 ATL N 33 33 232.2 200 58 57 20 177 63.3 .982 62.4
Johan Santana 2004 MIN A 34 34 228 156 70 66 54 265 60.6 1.029 62.2
Greg Maddux 1994 ATL N 25 25 202 150 44 35 31 156 60.7 1.011 61.1
Sandy Koufax 1963 LA N 40 40 311 214 68 65 58 306 63.6 .945 59.9
Vida Blue 1971 OAK A 39 39 312 209 73 63 88 301 61.5 .976 59.9
Tom Seaver 1971 NY N 36 35 286.1 210 61 56 61 289 60.7 .970 59.0
Kevin Brown 1996 FLA N 32 32 233 187 60 49 33 159 61.8 .948 59.0
Randy Johnson 1995 SEA A 30 30 214.1 159 65 59 65 294 57.8 1.021 59.0
Jim Palmer 1975 BAL A 39 38 323 253 87 75 80 193 65.9 .920 58.8
Pedro Martinez 1997 MON N 31 31 241.1 158 65 51 67 305 58.4 1.001 58.5
Randy Johnson 2002 ARI N 35 35 260 197 78 67 71 334 52.2 1.096 58.4
Gaylord Perry 1972 CLE A 41 40 342.2 253 79 73 82 234 54.2 1.053 57.9
Jim Palmer 1973 BAL A 38 37 296.1 225 86 79 113 158 57.1 1.009 57.8
Where: IPF - individual park factor
A/BPF - value added pitching runs adjusted for ballpark factor
And the worst:
Name Year Team G GS IP H R ER BB K VARP IPF A/BPF Steve Blass 1973 PIT N 23 18 88.2 109 98 97 84 27 -54.1 .979 -56.4 Bobby Jones 2001 SD N 33 33 195 250 137 111 38 113 -35.6 .906 -50.8 Lloyd Allen 1973 CAL-TEX 28 5 49.2 73 69 52 44 29 -44.9 .969 -47.4 Andy Larkin 1998 FLA N 17 14 74.2 101 87 80 55 43 -43.8 .982 -45.5 Vida Blue 1979 SF N 34 34 237 246 143 132 111 138 -29.9 .913 -44.1 Steve Sparks 2002 DET A 32 30 189 238 134 116 67 98 -39.1 .971 -43.6 Jason Bere 1995 CHI A 27 27 137.2 151 120 110 106 110 -37.2 .957 -43.0 Clay Kirby 1973 SD N 34 31 191.2 214 122 102 66 129 -33.2 .935 -42.2 Willie Fraser 1988 CAL A 34 32 194.2 203 129 117 80 86 -38.3 .974 -42.0 Todd Van Poppel 1996 OAK-DET 37 15 99.1 139 107 100 62 53 -42.7 1.010 -41.6 Jim Abbott 1996 CAL A 27 23 142 171 128 118 78 58 -41.2 .998 -41.4 Matt Keough 1982 OAK A 34 34 209.1 233 144 133 101 75 -35.5 .963 -41.2 Jaime Navarro 1997 CHI A 33 33 209.2 267 155 135 73 142 -36.3 .972 -41.0 Jaime Navarro 1998 CHI A 37 27 172.2 223 135 122 77 71 -40.0 .997 -40.5 Ross Grimsley 1980 MON-CLE 25 18 116 164 94 85 36 29 -40.7 1.002 -40.4 Roy Halladay 2000 TOR A 19 13 67.2 107 87 80 42 44 -42.4 1.026 -40.0 Jeremy Bonderman 2003 DET A 33 28 162 193 118 100 58 108 -31.5 .939 -39.9 Terry Mulholland 1995 SF N 29 24 149 190 112 96 38 65 -39.2 .997 -39.6 Livan Hernandez 2001 SF N 34 34 226.2 266 143 132 85 138 -23.5 .905 -39.0 Craig Minetto 1979 OAK A 36 13 118.1 131 85 73 58 64 -31.0 .929 -38.6 Jeff Fassero 1999 SEA-TEX 37 27 156.1 208 135 125 83 114 -47.5 1.063 -38.5 Ruben Quevedo 2000 CHI N 21 15 88 96 81 73 54 65 -32.5 .941 -37.9 Ross Grimsley 1979 MON N 32 27 151.1 199 102 90 41 42 -35.8 .983 -37.7 Mike Moore 1995 DET A 25 25 132.2 179 118 111 68 64 -41.1 1.029 -37.6 Mark Leiter 1997 PHI N 31 31 182.2 216 132 115 64 148 -36.3 .992 -37.4 Jack Fisher 1962 BAL A 32 25 152 173 101 86 56 81 -25.9 .903 -37.4
The leaders in park adjusted runs prevented each year:
Name Year Team G GS IP H R ER BB K A/BPF Frank Baumann 1960 CHI A 47 20 185.1 169 67 55 53 71 28.4 .997 28.2 Jack Kralick 1961 MIN A 33 33 242 257 101 97 64 137 25.7 1.088 33.5 Hank Aguirre 1962 DET A 42 22 216 162 67 53 65 156 38.7 1.034 40.8 Gary Peters 1963 CHI A 41 30 243 192 69 63 68 189 43.5 .977 42.0 Dean Chance 1964 LA A 46 35 278.1 194 56 51 86 207 70.1 .900 64.8 Sam McDowell 1965 CLE A 42 35 273 178 80 66 132 325 44.1 1.010 44.8 Gary Peters 1966 CHI A 30 27 204.2 156 54 45 45 129 34.5 .929 30.6 Joe Horlen 1967 CHI A 35 35 258 188 66 59 58 103 41.4 .939 37.5 Luis Tiant 1968 CLE A 34 32 258.1 152 53 46 73 264 45.5 .995 45.3 Denny McLain 1969 DET A 42 41 325 288 105 101 67 181 47.0 1.041 50.8 Sam McDowell 1970 CLE A 39 39 305 236 108 99 131 304 38.6 1.079 46.1 Vida Blue 1971 OAK A 39 39 312 209 73 63 88 301 61.5 .976 59.9 Gaylord Perry 1972 CLE A 41 40 342.2 253 79 73 82 234 54.2 1.053 57.9 Jim Palmer 1973 BAL A 38 37 296.1 225 86 79 113 158 57.1 1.009 57.8 Gaylord Perry 1974 CLE A 37 37 322.1 230 98 90 99 216 49.2 1.005 49.7 Jim Palmer 1975 BAL A 39 38 323 253 87 75 80 193 65.9 .920 58.8 Vida Blue 1976 OAK A 37 37 298.1 268 90 78 63 166 46.6 .943 41.6 Jim Palmer 1977 BAL A 39 39 319 263 106 103 99 193 55.9 .934 48.7 Ron Guidry 1978 NY A 35 35 273.2 187 61 53 72 248 65.3 .961 63.0 Dennis Eckersley 1979 BOS A 33 33 246.2 234 89 82 59 150 39.6 1.076 45.9 Mike Norris 1980 OAK A 33 33 284.1 215 88 80 83 180 53.3 .936 47.6 Steve McCatty 1981 OAK A 22 22 185.2 140 50 48 61 91 35.0 .938 31.9 Dave Stieb 1982 TOR A 38 38 288.1 271 116 104 75 141 29.0 1.081 37.6 Dave Stieb 1983 TOR A 36 36 278 223 105 94 93 187 36.0 1.077 43.2 Dave Stieb 1984 TOR A 35 35 267 215 87 84 88 198 45.2 1.031 47.7 Dave Stieb 1985 TOR A 36 36 265 206 89 73 96 167 48.0 1.026 50.1 Roger Clemens 1986 BOS A 33 33 254 179 77 70 67 238 55.2 1.009 55.8 Roger Clemens 1987 BOS A 36 36 281.2 248 100 93 83 256 53.4 1.020 55.3 Frank Viola 1988 MIN A 35 35 255.1 236 80 75 54 193 41.4 1.036 44.1 Bret Saberhagen 1989 KC A 36 35 262.1 209 74 63 43 193 52.0 .979 50.6 Roger Clemens 1990 BOS A 31 31 228.1 193 59 49 54 209 54.1 1.043 56.3 Roger Clemens 1991 BOS A 35 35 271.1 219 93 79 65 241 41.7 1.048 45.8 Mike Mussina 1992 BAL A 32 32 241 212 70 68 48 130 44.2 1.010 44.8 Kevin Appier 1993 KC A 34 34 238.2 183 74 68 81 186 53.3 1.051 56.4 David Cone 1994 KC A 23 23 171.2 130 60 56 54 132 42.3 1.049 44.8 Randy Johnson 1995 SEA A 30 30 214.1 159 65 59 65 294 57.8 1.021 59.0 Pat Hentgen 1996 TOR A 35 35 265.2 238 105 95 94 177 53.6 .995 53.1 Roger Clemens 1997 TOR A 34 34 264 204 65 60 68 292 80.9 .992 80.5 Roger Clemens 1998 TOR A 33 33 234.2 169 78 69 88 271 52.4 1.001 52.5 Pedro Martinez 1999 BOS A 31 29 213.1 160 56 49 37 313 69.1 1.039 70.9 Pedro Martinez 2000 BOS A 29 29 217 128 44 42 32 284 86.2 1.022 86.7 Joe Mays 2001 MIN A 34 34 233.2 205 87 82 64 123 39.9 1.038 43.0 Derek Lowe 2002 BOS A 32 32 219.2 166 65 63 48 127 55.0 1.010 55.6 Pedro Martinez 2003 BOS A 29 29 186.2 147 52 46 47 206 51.3 1.031 52.7 Johan Santana 2004 MIN A 34 34 228 156 70 66 54 265 60.6 1.029 62.2
Name Year Team G GS IP H R ER BB K A/BPF Don Drysdale 1960 LA N 41 36 269 214 93 85 72 246 39.0 1.085 45.6 Stu Miller 1961 SF N 63 0 122 95 41 36 37 89 34.1 .978 33.5 Bob Gibson 1962 STL N 32 30 233.2 174 84 74 95 208 34.3 1.085 40.9 Sandy Koufax 1963 LA N 40 40 311 214 68 65 58 306 63.6 .945 59.9 Don Drysdale 1964 LA N 40 40 321.1 242 91 78 68 237 55.2 .913 47.1 Juan Marichal 1965 SF N 39 37 295.1 224 78 70 46 240 52.9 1.055 56.9 Sandy Koufax 1966 LA N 41 41 323 241 74 62 77 317 73.8 .895 65.7 Jim Bunning 1967 PHI N 40 40 302.1 241 94 77 73 253 32.3 1.017 33.9 Bob Gibson 1968 STL N 34 34 304.2 198 49 38 62 268 65.5 .951 63.2 Bob Gibson 1969 STL N 35 35 314 251 84 76 95 269 55.4 .991 54.7 Fergie Jenkins 1970 CHI N 40 39 313 265 128 118 60 274 30.2 1.112 42.3 Tom Seaver 1971 NY N 36 35 286.1 210 61 56 61 289 60.7 .970 59.0 Steve Carlton 1972 PHI N 41 41 346.1 257 84 76 87 310 63.6 1.015 64.8 Tom Seaver 1973 NY N 36 36 290 219 74 67 64 251 58.6 .987 57.7 Phil Niekro 1974 ATL N 41 39 302.1 249 91 80 88 195 43.5 1.022 45.5 Andy Messersmith 1975 LA N 42 40 321.2 244 92 82 96 213 55.1 .936 49.3 Doug Rau 1976 LA N 34 32 231 221 71 66 69 98 28.9 .961 25.9 Rick Reuschel 1977 CHI N 39 37 252 233 84 78 74 166 42.3 1.113 50.4 Phil Niekro 1978 ATL N 44 42 334.1 295 129 107 102 248 22.6 1.136 38.5 J.R. Richard 1979 HOU N 38 38 292.1 220 98 88 98 313 39.2 .901 28.5 Steve Carlton 1980 PHI N 38 38 304 243 87 79 90 286 47.7 1.071 53.5 F. Valenzuela 1981 LA N 25 25 192.1 140 55 53 61 180 31.2 .944 28.2 Steve Rogers 1982 MON N 35 35 277 245 84 74 65 179 39.1 1.025 41.2 Mario Soto 1983 CIN N 34 34 273.2 207 96 82 95 242 28.8 1.048 33.1 Bruce Sutter 1984 STL N 71 0 122.2 109 26 21 23 77 30.3 .992 30.2 Dwight Gooden 1985 NY N 35 35 276.2 198 51 47 69 268 74.8 .981 73.9 Mike Scott 1986 HOU N 37 37 275.1 182 73 68 72 306 54.8 .981 53.5 Bob Welch 1987 LA N 35 35 251.2 204 94 90 86 196 34.4 .957 30.3 Orel Hershiser 1988 LA N 35 34 267 208 73 67 73 178 41.6 .998 41.5 Orel Hershiser 1989 LA N 35 33 256.2 226 75 66 77 178 38.2 .972 36.1 Frank Viola 1990 NY N 35 35 249.2 227 83 74 60 182 37.9 .996 37.6 Tom Glavine 1991 ATL N 34 34 246.2 201 83 70 69 192 28.2 1.072 33.8 Greg Maddux 1992 CHI N 35 35 268 201 68 65 70 199 46.3 1.014 47.2 Jose Rijo 1993 CIN N 36 36 257.1 218 76 71 62 227 51.6 1.014 52.6 Greg Maddux 1994 ATL N 25 25 202 150 44 35 31 156 60.7 1.011 61.1 Greg Maddux 1995 ATL N 28 28 209.2 147 39 38 23 181 69.1 1.018 69.6 Kevin Brown 1996 FLA N 32 32 233 187 60 49 33 159 61.8 .948 59.0 Greg Maddux 1997 ATL N 33 33 232.2 200 58 57 20 177 63.3 .982 62.4 Greg Maddux 1998 ATL N 34 34 251 201 75 62 45 204 52.8 .993 52.4 Randy Johnson 1999 ARI N 35 35 271.2 207 86 75 70 364 64.8 .990 64.0 Randy Johnson 2000 ARI N 35 35 248.2 202 89 73 76 347 52.3 1.024 54.1 Randy Johnson 2001 ARI N 35 34 249.2 181 74 69 71 372 58.6 1.093 64.4 Randy Johnson 2002 ARI N 35 35 260 197 78 67 71 334 52.2 1.096 58.4 Jason Schmidt 2003 SF N 29 29 207.2 152 56 54 46 208 50.6 1.003 50.8 Randy Johnson 2004 ARI N 35 35 245.2 177 88 71 44 290 39.8 1.076 45.4
The pitchers leading their leagues more than three times include Roger Clemens (6), Randy Johnson (6), Greg Maddux (5) and Dave Stieb (4).
And the league trailers:
Name Year Team G GS IP H R ER BB K A/BPF Johnny Kucks 1960 KC A 31 17 114 140 85 76 43 38 -29.9 .992 -30.6 J. Klippstein 1961 WAS A 42 1 71.2 83 59 54 43 41 -33.6 .988 -34.5 Jack Fisher 1962 BAL A 32 25 152 173 101 86 56 81 -25.9 .903 -37.4 Jim Duckworth 1963 WAS A 37 15 120.2 131 89 81 67 66 -27.6 1.020 -25.7 Ken McBride 1964 LA A 29 21 116.1 104 77 68 75 66 -24.0 .872 -36.2 Phil Ortega 1965 WAS A 35 29 179.2 176 107 102 97 88 -26.1 .993 -26.9 Mickey Lolich 1966 DET A 40 33 203.2 204 119 108 83 173 -23.8 1.028 -20.5 Blue Moon Odom 1967 KC A 29 17 103.2 94 67 58 68 67 -25.3 .997 -25.5 Frank Bertaina 1968 WAS A 27 23 127.1 133 76 66 69 81 -26.8 .968 -29.5 Marty Pattin 1969 SEA A 34 27 158.2 166 104 99 71 126 -34.2 1.003 -33.9 Lew Krausse 1970 MIL A 37 35 216 235 130 114 67 130 -29.1 1.006 -28.3 Denny McLain 1971 WAS A 33 32 216.2 233 115 103 72 103 -20.7 .933 -29.2 Ken Brett 1972 MIL A 26 22 133 121 76 67 49 74 -23.9 .962 -27.0 Lloyd Allen 1973 CAL-TEX 28 5 49.2 73 69 52 44 29 -44.9 .969 -47.4 Jim Bibby 1974 TEX A 41 41 264 255 146 139 113 149 -25.5 .970 -30.1 Joe Coleman 1975 DET A 31 31 201 234 137 124 85 125 -42.7 1.042 -36.6 Jim Hughes 1976 MIN A 37 26 177 190 113 98 73 87 -30.9 1.005 -30.3 Wayne Simpson 1977 CAL A 27 23 122 154 90 79 62 55 -25.3 .944 -31.0 Dick Pole 1978 SEA A 21 18 98.2 122 82 71 41 41 -38.2 1.034 -35.2 Craig Minetto 1979 OAK A 36 13 118.1 131 85 73 58 64 -31.0 .929 -38.6 Byron McLaughlin 1980 SEA A 45 4 90.2 124 74 69 50 41 -38.5 1.023 -36.4 Juan Berenguer 1981 KCA-TOR 20 14 90.2 84 62 53 51 49 -22.9 1.071 -18.4 Matt Keough 1982 OAK A 34 34 209.1 233 144 133 101 75 -35.5 .963 -41.2 Frank Viola 1983 MIN A 35 34 210 242 141 128 92 127 -36.4 1.058 -28.2 Lary Sorensen 1984 OAK A 46 21 183.1 240 117 100 44 63 -21.1 .919 -31.5 Curt Wardle 1985 MIN-CLE 50 12 115 127 83 79 62 84 -29.0 1.012 -27.9 Jose Rijo 1986 OAK A 39 26 193.2 172 116 100 108 176 -20.1 .939 -28.5 Ken Schrom 1987 CLE A 32 29 153.2 185 126 111 57 61 -40.4 1.042 -35.0 Willie Fraser 1988 CAL A 34 32 194.2 203 129 117 80 86 -38.3 .974 -42.0 Don August 1989 MIL A 31 25 142.1 175 93 84 58 51 -25.0 .987 -26.3 Mike Moore 1990 OAK A 33 33 199.1 204 113 103 84 73 -15.4 .913 -26.4 Dave Johnson 1991 BAL A 22 14 84 127 68 66 24 38 -33.0 .970 -35.5 Les Lancaster 1992 DET A 41 1 86.2 101 66 61 51 35 -32.5 1.013 -31.5 Jack Morris 1993 TOR A 27 27 152.2 189 116 105 65 103 -33.4 1.028 -30.1 Terry Mulholland 1994 NY A 24 19 120.2 150 94 87 37 72 -25.5 .988 -26.7 Jason Bere 1995 CHI A 27 27 137.2 151 120 110 106 110 -37.2 .957 -43.0 Todd Van Poppel 1996 OAK-DET 37 15 99.1 139 107 100 62 53 -42.7 1.010 -41.6 Jaime Navarro 1997 CHI A 33 33 209.2 267 155 135 73 142 -36.3 .972 -41.0 Jaime Navarro 1998 CHI A 37 27 172.2 223 135 122 77 71 -40.0 .997 -40.5 Jeff Fassero 1999 SEA-TEX 37 27 156.1 208 135 125 83 114 -47.5 1.063 -38.5 Roy Halladay 2000 TOR A 19 13 67.2 107 87 80 42 44 -42.4 1.026 -40.0 Ryan Rupe 2001 TB A 28 26 143.1 161 111 105 48 123 -30.6 .973 -33.7 Steve Sparks 2002 DET A 32 30 189 238 134 116 67 98 -39.1 .971 -43.6 Jeremy Bonderman 2003 DET A 33 28 162 193 118 100 58 108 -31.5 .939 -39.9 Brian Anderson 2004 KC A 35 26 166 217 123 104 53 70 -30.7 1.009 -29.5
Name Year Team G GS IP H R ER BB K A/BPF Dick Drott 1960 CHI N 23 9 55.1 63 49 44 42 32 -24.2 .990 -24.8 Chris Short 1961 PHI N 39 16 127.1 157 94 84 71 80 -35.9 1.013 -34.5 Craig Anderson 1962 NY N 50 14 131.1 150 108 78 63 62 -34.2 1.052 -28.7 Jay Hook 1963 NY N 41 20 152.2 168 104 93 53 89 -37.2 1.051 -32.0 Warren Spahn 1964 MIL N 38 25 173.2 204 110 102 52 78 -31.0 .990 -32.2 Don Nottebart 1965 HOU N 29 25 158 166 99 82 55 77 -23.6 .937 -30.4 Ray Sadecki 1966 SLN-SFN 31 22 129.1 141 91 69 48 83 -34.0 1.052 -29.2 Bo Belinsky 1967 HOU N 27 18 115.1 112 74 60 54 80 -29.0 .963 -32.2 Claude Osteen 1968 LA N 39 36 253.2 267 109 87 54 119 -14.0 .905 -26.2 Tony Cloninger 1969 CIN N 35 34 189.2 184 123 106 103 103 -34.1 1.041 -28.9 Frank Reberger 1970 SF N 45 18 152 178 108 94 98 117 -33.9 .999 -34.0 Carl Morton 1971 MON N 36 35 213.2 252 129 114 83 84 -35.5 1.007 -34.6 Bill Greif 1972 SD N 34 22 125.1 143 86 78 47 91 -29.0 .942 -34.6 Steve Blass 1973 PIT N 23 18 88.2 109 98 97 84 27 -54.1 .979 -56.4 Bill Greif 1974 SD N 43 35 226 244 126 117 95 137 -24.9 .950 -32.2 Dan Spillner 1975 SD N 37 25 166.2 194 93 79 63 104 -18.9 .944 -25.0 Mike Cosgrove 1976 HOU N 22 16 89.2 106 63 55 58 34 -22.6 .946 -26.5 Rick Sawyer 1977 SD N 56 9 111 136 77 72 55 45 -26.1 .932 -32.6 Dave Tomlin 1978 CIN N 57 0 62.1 88 54 40 30 32 -31.3 1.022 -29.9 Vida Blue 1979 SF N 34 34 237 246 143 132 111 138 -29.9 .913 -44.1 Randy Lerch 1980 PHI N 30 22 150 178 98 86 55 57 -30.3 1.042 -26.1 Randy Jones 1981 NY N 13 12 59.1 65 48 32 38 14 -25.2 .985 -26.0 Mike Scott 1982 NY N 37 22 147 185 100 84 60 63 -26.3 1.002 -26.1 Mike LaCoss 1983 HOU N 38 17 138 142 81 68 56 53 -20.0 .931 -26.4 Mark Davis 1984 SF N 46 27 174.2 201 113 104 54 124 -34.7 .995 -35.4 Bill Laskey 1985 SFN-MON 30 26 148.1 165 91 81 53 60 -22.6 .946 -28.1 Steve Carlton 1986 PHI-SFN 22 22 113 138 90 74 61 80 -35.0 1.011 -34.0 Bob Knepper 1987 HOU N 33 31 177.2 226 118 104 54 76 -28.5 .943 -36.1 Bruce Ruffin 1988 PHI N 55 15 144.1 151 86 71 80 82 -26.2 1.032 -23.2 Jeff Robinson 1989 PIT N 50 19 141.1 161 92 72 59 95 -31.5 .968 -34.9 Bruce Ruffin 1990 PHI N 32 25 149 178 99 89 62 79 -32.2 1.007 -31.4 Juan Agosto 1991 STL N 72 0 86 92 52 46 39 34 -22.3 .982 -23.5 Ryan Bowen 1992 HOU N 11 9 33.2 48 43 41 30 22 -27.9 .916 -32.3 Pete Schourek 1993 NY N 41 18 128.1 168 90 85 45 72 -24.3 .976 -26.6 Brian Williams 1994 HOU N 20 13 78.1 112 64 50 41 49 -26.4 .946 -30.7 Terry Mulholland 1995 SF N 29 24 149 190 112 96 38 65 -39.2 .997 -39.6 W. VanLandingham 1996 SF N 32 32 181.2 196 123 109 78 97 -25.8 .948 -32.9 Mark Leiter 1997 PHI N 31 31 182.2 216 132 115 64 148 -36.3 .992 -37.4 Andy Larkin 1998 FLA N 17 14 74.2 101 87 80 55 43 -43.8 .982 -45.5 Micah Bowie 1999 ATL-CHN 14 11 51 81 60 58 34 41 -32.0 1.004 -31.7 Ruben Quevedo 2000 CHI N 21 15 88 96 81 73 54 65 -32.5 .941 -37.9 Bobby Jones 2001 SD N 33 33 195 250 137 111 38 113 -35.6 .906 -50.8 Jose Cabrera 2002 MIL N 50 11 103.1 131 84 78 36 61 -33.6 1.007 -33.0 Shawn Estes 2003 CHI N 29 28 152.1 182 113 97 83 103 -36.1 1.004 -35.6 Jose Acevedo 2004 CIN N 39 27 157.2 188 108 104 45 117 -25.7 .945 -32.2
It's not often a pitcher has the opportunity to repeat as his league's worst pitcher, but Bill Greif, Terry Mulholland, Jaime Navarro and Bruce Ruffin managed it. Six pitchers made both the best and the worst list: Vida Blue, Steve Carlton, Denny McLain, Jose Rijo, Mike Scott and Frank Viola.
The career leaders in park-adjusted runs from 1960 to 2004:
Name G GS IP H R ER BB K A/BPF Roger Clemens 640 639 4493 3846 1748 1588 1458 4317 696.5 Greg Maddux 608 604 4181.1 3843 1563 1370 871 2916 553.5 Randy Johnson 489 479 3368 2612 1303 1148 1302 4161 523.5 Pedro Martinez 388 321 2296 1746 766 691 615 2653 511.5 Tom Seaver 656 647 4782.2 3971 1674 1521 1390 3640 507.1 Jim Palmer 558 521 3948 3349 1395 1253 1311 2212 396.8 Bob Gibson 515 473 3808.2 3202 1385 1230 1297 3069 390.8 i Bert Blyleven 692 685 4970 4632 2029 1830 1322 3701 388.6 Mike Mussina 413 413 2833.1 2675 1203 1131 637 2258 370.4 Curt Schilling 482 370 2812.2 2492 1101 1039 638 2745 365.5 Tom Glavine 570 570 3740.1 3583 1576 1429 1276 2245 343.3 Kevin Brown 473 463 3183 2972 1300 1132 882 2347 336.9 Gaylord Perry 777 690 5350.1 4938 2128 1846 1379 3534 313.7 Fergie Jenkins 664 594 4500.2 4142 1853 1669 997 3192 296.5 Steve Carlton 741 709 5217.1 4672 2130 1864 1833 4136 294.0 Dennis Eckersley 1071 361 3285.2 3076 1382 1278 738 2401 282.1 Bret Saberhagen 399 371 2562.2 2452 1036 952 471 1715 281.5 John Smoltz 602 361 2699.2 2327 1074 982 829 2398 277.5 Sandy Koufax 260 237 1807.2 1304 542 474 512 1910 276.8 i Dave Stieb 443 412 2895.1 2572 1225 1106 1034 1669 265.8 David Cone 450 419 2898.2 2504 1222 1115 1137 2668 265.1 Jimmy Key 470 389 2591.2 2518 1104 1010 668 1538 254.1 Phil Niekro 864 716 5404.1 5044 2337 2012 1809 3342 250.5 Juan Marichal 471 457 3507.1 3153 1329 1126 709 2303 246.7 Kevin Appier 414 402 2595.1 2425 1168 1078 933 1994 245.2 i - incomplete
One slightly weird thing here: there are 5 pitchers with 500 or more runs, but none in the 400s.
The bottom:
Name G GS IP H R ER BB K A/BPF Jack Fisher 373 258 1887 1985 988 861 567 965 -152.1 i Mike Kekich 235 112 860.2 875 485 439 442 497 -135.6 Jaime Navarro 361 309 2055.1 2313 1206 1078 690 1113 -125.9 Bobby Witt 430 397 2465 2493 1449 1324 1375 1955 -121.7 Pete Broberg 206 134 963 942 552 488 478 536 -121.3 Tom Griffin 401 191 1494.2 1407 762 676 769 1054 -118.7 Jimmy Haynes 227 203 1200.2 1358 778 717 601 762 -117.6 Mike LaCoss 415 243 1739.2 1786 885 777 725 783 -116.9 Kevin Jarvis 174 114 749.1 894 536 494 248 438 -112.4 Brian Williams 256 59 595.1 655 401 355 332 397 -106.9 Andy Hawkins 280 249 1558.1 1574 815 731 612 706 -106.4 Bill Krueger 301 164 1194.1 1305 685 577 493 639 -106.1 Bill Greif 231 97 715.2 747 402 351 287 442 -106.0 Todd Van Poppel 359 98 907 944 587 562 461 711 -105.1 Sean Bergman 196 117 750.1 912 489 440 272 455 -101.6 Blue Moon Odom 295 229 1509 1362 708 620 788 857 -100.6 Wade Blasingame 222 128 863.2 891 486 434 372 512 -97.4 Randy Lerch 253 164 1099.1 1232 612 553 432 507 -97.0 Jay Hook 139 94 660.2 720 425 383 226 346 -95.3 i Al Jackson 294 181 1371.1 1419 711 601 399 725 -95.2 i Jesse Jefferson 237 144 1085.2 1151 642 580 520 522 -95.1 Lew Krausse 321 167 1283.2 1205 635 571 493 721 -94.3 Dan Spillner 556 123 1492.2 1585 786 699 605 878 -93.3 Bob Knepper 445 413 2708 2737 1258 1106 857 1473 -93.1 Terry Mulholland 631 332 2513.2 2765 1363 1231 663 1306 -92.5 i - incomplete
Up until now, I've been concentrating on overall runs, which has meant that most of the pitchers mentioned have been starters. But what about relievers?
Looking at only relief appearances, here are the top seasons in park-adjusted VA pitching runs by relievers from 1960 to 2004:
Name Year Team G GS IP H R ER BB K A/BPF John Hiller 1973 DET A 65 0 125.1 89 21 20 39 124 51.8 Mark Eichhorn 1986 TOR A 69 0 157 105 32 30 45 166 50.5 Doug Corbett 1980 MIN A 73 0 136.1 102 31 30 42 89 44.6 Jim Kern 1979 TEX A 71 0 143 99 35 25 62 136 42.3 Mariano Rivera 1996 NY A 61 0 107.2 73 25 25 34 130 41.5 Rich Gossage 1977 PIT N 72 0 133 78 27 24 49 151 40.7 Mudcat Grant 1970 OAK-PIT 80 0 135.1 112 29 28 32 58 37.9 G. Hernandez 1984 DET A 80 0 140.1 96 30 30 36 112 37.7 Bill Campbell 1977 BOS A 69 0 140 112 48 46 60 114 37.3 Keith Foulke 1999 CHI A 67 0 105.1 72 28 26 21 123 37.0 Rich Gossage 1975 CHI A 62 0 141.2 99 32 29 70 130 35.8 Lindy McDaniel 1960 STL N 65 2 116.1 85 28 27 24 105 34.1 Stu Miller 1961 SF N 63 0 122 95 41 36 37 89 33.5 Brad Lidge 2004 HOU N 80 0 94.2 57 21 20 30 157 32.8 Bruce Sutter 1977 CHI N 62 0 107.1 69 21 16 23 129 32.7 Mike Marshall 1973 MON N 92 0 179 163 62 53 75 124 32.6 Dan Quisenberry 1983 KC A 69 0 139 118 35 30 11 48 32.6 Jeff Nelson 1995 SEA A 62 0 78.2 58 21 19 27 96 32.2 Eric Gagne 2003 LA N 77 0 82.1 37 12 11 20 137 32.2 Tom Gordon 2004 NY A 80 0 89.2 56 23 22 23 96 31.5 Bob Stanley 1982 BOS A 48 0 168.1 161 60 58 50 83 31.3 Aurelio Lopez 1979 DET A 61 0 127 95 37 34 51 106 31.2 Bruce Sutter 1984 STL N 71 0 122.2 109 26 21 23 77 30.2 Jeff Zimmerman 1999 TEX A 65 0 87.2 50 24 23 23 67 30.2 Rheal Cormier 2003 PHI N 65 0 84.2 54 18 16 25 67 30.2
Not a lot of modern closers on this list. Instead, we see it dominated by old-school relief pitchers (the type that pitched 125+ innings a season back when men were men and Tony LaRussa was a minor league infielder) as well as modern set-up men.
The worst:
Name Year Team G GS IP H R ER BB K A/BPF J. Klippstein 1961 WAS A 42 1 71.2 83 59 54 43 41 -31.4 Dave Tomlin 1978 CIN N 57 0 62.1 88 54 40 30 32 -29.9 Jim Todd 1979 OAK A 51 0 81 108 66 59 51 26 -29.6 John Davis 1988 CHI A 34 1 63.2 77 58 47 50 37 -29.6 Vic Darensbourg 1999 FLA N 56 0 34.2 50 36 34 21 16 -28.5 John Riedling 2004 CIN N 70 0 77.2 90 54 44 40 46 -27.7 Rich Thompson 1985 CLE A 57 0 80 95 63 56 48 30 -27.4 Jaret Wright 2003 SDN-ATL 50 0 56.1 76 46 46 31 50 -27.2 Les Lancaster 1992 DET A 41 1 86.2 101 66 61 51 35 -27.0 Lloyd Allen 1973 CAL-TEX 28 5 49.2 73 69 52 44 29 -26.5 Larry Sherry 1967 DET-HOU 49 0 68.2 88 48 42 20 52 -26.1 Mark Petkovsek 2001 TEX A 55 0 76.2 103 61 57 28 42 -26.1 Ralph Botting 1979 CAL A 12 1 29.2 46 30 29 15 22 -25.9 Dave Hamilton 1980 OAK A 21 1 30 44 39 38 28 23 -25.7 Norm Charlton 1997 SEA A 71 0 69.1 89 59 56 47 55 -25.7 Jose Bautista 1995 SF N 52 6 100.2 120 77 72 26 45 -25.6 Tom Hume 1984 CIN N 54 8 113.1 142 83 71 41 59 -25.5 Don Elston 1961 CHI N 58 0 93.1 108 64 58 45 59 -25.4 Jim Poole 1997 SF N 63 0 49.1 73 44 39 25 26 -24.9 Kyle Farnsworth 2002 CHI N 45 0 46.2 53 47 38 24 46 -24.5 Pete Burnside 1963 BAL-WS2 44 1 74.2 95 53 50 26 29 -24.3 Ron Davis 1986 MIN-CHN 53 0 58.2 86 60 56 32 40 -24.2 Darren Holmes 2000 3 Teams 14 0 15.1 30 25 25 9 13 -23.9 Juan Agosto 1991 STL N 72 0 86 92 52 46 39 34 -23.5 Jack Baldschun 1965 PHI N 65 0 99 102 53 42 42 81 -23.2
Once again, the Value Added stats only includes the games pitched in relief that year.
The leaders in park adjusted runs in each year:
Name Year Team G GS IP H R ER BB K A/BPF Russ Kemmerer 1960 CHI A 36 7 120.2 111 45 40 45 76 17.3 Terry Fox 1961 DET A 39 0 57.1 42 12 9 16 32 21.6 Dick Radatz 1962 BOS A 62 0 124.2 95 32 31 40 144 29.1 Dick Radatz 1963 BOS A 66 0 132.1 94 31 29 51 162 26.5 Dick Radatz 1964 BOS A 79 0 157 103 44 40 58 181 29.2 Stu Miller 1965 BAL A 67 0 119.1 87 26 25 32 104 29.8 Jack Aker 1966 KC A 66 0 113 81 27 25 28 68 23.5 Don McMahon 1967 BOS-CHA 63 0 109.1 68 29 24 40 84 21.3 Wilbur Wood 1968 CHI A 88 2 159 127 39 33 33 74 21.6 Ken Tatum 1969 CAL A 45 0 86.1 51 13 13 39 65 29.9 Mudcat Grant 1970 OAK A 72 0 123.1 104 26 25 30 54 33.4 Ken Sanders 1971 MIL A 83 0 136.1 111 35 29 34 80 28.8 Sparky Lyle 1972 NY A 59 0 107.2 84 25 23 29 75 17.8 John Hiller 1973 DET A 65 0 125.1 89 21 20 39 124 51.8 Tom Murphy 1974 MIL A 70 0 123 97 27 26 51 47 27.2 Rich Gossage 1975 CHI A 62 0 141.2 99 32 29 70 130 35.8 Mark Littell 1976 KC A 60 1 104 68 26 24 60 92 23.3 Bill Campbell 1977 BOS A 69 0 140 112 48 46 60 114 37.3 Rich Gossage 1978 NY A 63 0 134.1 87 41 30 59 122 29.1 Jim Kern 1979 TEX A 71 0 143 99 35 25 62 136 42.3 Doug Corbett 1980 MIN A 73 0 136.1 102 31 30 42 89 44.6 Rollie Fingers 1981 MIL A 47 0 78 55 9 9 13 61 24.4 Bob Stanley 1982 BOS A 48 0 168.1 161 60 58 50 83 31.3 Dan Quisenberry 1983 KC A 69 0 139 118 35 30 11 48 32.6 G. Hernandez 1984 DET A 80 0 140.1 96 30 30 36 112 37.7 Steve Ontiveros 1985 OAK A 39 0 74.2 45 17 16 19 36 27.1 Mark Eichhorn 1986 TOR A 69 0 157 105 32 30 45 166 50.5 Dennis Eckersley 1987 OAK A 54 2 115.2 99 41 39 17 113 28.7 Paul Mirabella 1988 MIL A 38 0 60 44 12 11 21 33 19.1 Jeff Montgomery 1989 KC A 63 0 92 66 16 14 25 94 25.2 Dennis Eckersley 1990 OAK A 63 0 73.1 41 9 5 4 73 28.8 Mike Flanagan 1991 BAL A 64 1 98.1 84 27 26 25 55 30.1 Dennis Eckersley 1992 OAK A 69 0 80 62 17 17 11 93 27.6 Jeff Montgomery 1993 KC A 69 0 87.1 65 22 22 23 66 23.2 Mark Eichhorn 1994 BAL A 43 0 71 62 19 17 19 35 22.0 Jeff Nelson 1995 SEA A 62 0 78.2 58 21 19 27 96 32.2 Mariano Rivera 1996 NY A 61 0 107.2 73 25 25 34 130 41.5 Doug Jones 1997 MIL A 75 0 80.1 62 20 18 9 82 24.9 Michael Jackson 1998 CLE A 69 0 64 43 11 11 13 55 27.9 Keith Foulke 1999 CHI A 67 0 105.1 72 28 26 21 123 37.0 Derek Lowe 2000 BOS A 74 0 91.1 90 27 26 22 79 25.1 Arthur Rhodes 2001 SEA A 71 0 68 46 14 13 12 83 24.8 J.C. Romero 2002 MIN A 81 0 81 62 17 17 36 76 26.9 Brendan Donnelly 2003 ANA A 63 0 74 55 14 13 24 79 29.3 Tom Gordon 2004 NY A 80 0 89.2 56 23 22 23 96 31.5
Name Year Team G GS IP H R ER BB K A/BPF Lindy McDaniel 1960 STL N 65 2 116.1 85 28 27 24 105 34.1 Stu Miller 1961 SF N 63 0 122 95 41 36 37 89 33.5 Roy Face 1962 PIT N 63 0 91 74 23 19 18 45 21.8 J. Klippstein 1963 PHI N 49 1 112 80 28 24 46 86 23.1 Sammy Ellis 1964 CIN N 52 5 122.1 101 38 35 28 125 21.5 Bobby Bolin 1965 SF N 45 13 163 125 51 50 56 135 23.7 Phil Regan 1966 LA N 65 0 116.2 85 24 21 24 88 24.6 Ted Abernathy 1967 CIN N 70 0 106.1 63 19 15 41 88 23.0 Phil Regan 1968 LAN-CHN 73 0 134.2 119 39 34 25 67 10.1 Tug McGraw 1969 NY N 42 4 100.1 89 31 25 47 92 20.5 Dick Selma 1970 PHI N 73 0 134.1 108 42 41 59 153 28.5 Tug McGraw 1971 NY N 51 1 111 73 22 21 41 109 30.1 Mike Marshall 1972 MON N 65 0 116 82 26 23 47 95 25.8 Mike Marshall 1973 MON N 92 0 179 163 62 53 75 124 32.6 Dale Murray 1974 MON N 32 0 69.2 46 12 8 23 31 22.2 Rawly Eastwick 1975 CIN N 58 0 90 77 26 26 25 61 20.7 Ron Reed 1976 PHI N 59 4 128 88 39 35 32 96 22.6 Rich Gossage 1977 PIT N 72 0 133 78 27 24 49 151 40.7 Gene Garber 1978 PHI-ATL 65 0 117 84 32 28 24 85 23.6 Kent Tekulve 1979 PIT N 94 0 134.1 109 46 41 49 75 25.6 Tug McGraw 1980 PHI N 57 0 92.1 62 16 15 23 75 27.6 Joe Sambito 1981 HOU N 49 0 63.2 43 17 13 22 41 17.2 Steve Bedrosian 1982 ATL N 64 3 137.2 102 39 37 57 123 23.3 Tom Niedenfuer 1983 LA N 66 0 94.2 55 22 20 29 66 24.6 Bruce Sutter 1984 STL N 71 0 122.2 109 26 21 23 77 30.2 Tim Burke 1985 MON N 78 0 120.1 86 32 32 44 87 21.1 Todd Worrell 1986 STL N 74 0 103.2 86 29 24 41 73 20.3 Andy McGaffigan 1987 MON N 69 0 120.1 105 38 32 42 100 25.2 John Franco 1988 CIN N 70 0 86 60 18 15 27 46 18.8 Rob Dibble 1989 CIN N 74 0 99 62 23 23 39 141 27.6 Jeff Brantley 1990 SF N 55 0 86.2 77 18 15 33 61 22.2 Juan Berenguer 1991 ATL N 49 0 64.1 43 18 16 20 53 17.7 Mel Rojas 1992 MON N 68 0 100.2 71 17 16 34 70 28.4 Pedro Martinez 1993 LA N 65 2 107 76 34 31 57 119 28.0 Todd Jones 1994 HOU N 48 0 72.2 52 23 22 26 63 19.1 Curt Leskanic 1995 COL N 76 0 98 83 38 37 33 107 25.9 Trevor Hoffman 1996 SD N 70 0 88 50 23 22 31 111 23.9 Jeff Shaw 1997 CIN N 78 0 94.2 79 26 25 12 74 22.6 Trevor Hoffman 1998 SD N 66 0 73 41 12 12 21 86 26.4 Danny Graves 1999 CIN N 75 0 111 90 42 38 49 69 30.0 Gabe White 2000 CIN-COL 68 0 84 64 23 22 15 84 24.7 Steve Kline 2001 STL N 89 0 75 53 16 15 29 54 25.0 Octavio Dotel 2002 HOU N 83 0 97.1 58 21 20 27 118 27.2 Eric Gagne 2003 LA N 77 0 82.1 37 12 11 20 137 32.2 Brad Lidge 2004 HOU N 80 0 94.2 57 21 20 30 157 32.8
No player has led their league more than three times. Those who did it three times include Dennis Eckersley, Rich Gossage, Tug McGraw and Dick Radatz.
The trailers in park adjusted runs in each year:
Name Year Team G GS IP H R ER BB K A/BPF Duke Maas 1960 NY A 35 1 70.1 70 44 32 35 28 -12.9 J. Klippstein 1961 WAS A 42 1 71.2 83 59 54 43 41 -31.4 Arnold Earley 1962 BOS A 38 3 68.1 76 53 44 46 59 -15.1 Pete Burnside 1963 BAL-WS2 44 1 74.2 95 53 50 26 29 -24.3 Jack Lamabe 1964 BOS A 39 25 177.1 235 123 116 57 109 -13.8 Steve Ridzik 1965 WAS A 63 0 109.2 108 61 49 43 72 -16.7 Dick Radatz 1966 BOS-CLE 55 0 75.2 73 43 39 45 68 -16.5 Ed Connolly 1967 CLE A 15 4 49.1 63 46 41 34 45 -22.0 Bobby Locke 1968 CAL A 29 0 36.1 51 29 26 13 21 -19.5 Dennis Higgins 1969 WAS A 55 0 85.1 79 42 33 56 71 -15.4 John O'Donoghue 1970 MIL A 25 0 23.1 29 15 13 9 13 -16.1 Ron Perranoski 1971 MIN-DET 47 0 60.2 76 48 37 31 29 -22.6 Tom Burgmeier 1972 KC A 51 0 55.1 67 32 26 33 18 -21.7 Lloyd Allen 1973 CAL-TEX 28 5 49.2 73 69 52 44 29 -26.5 Darold Knowles 1974 OAK A 45 1 53.1 61 29 25 35 18 -16.3 Fred Beene 1975 CLE A 19 1 46.2 63 42 36 25 20 -20.1 Tom Murphy 1976 MIL-BOS 52 0 99.1 116 61 46 34 39 -16.5 Sid Monge 1977 CAL-CLE 37 0 51.1 61 37 31 33 29 -16.7 Pablo Torrealba 1978 CHI A 25 3 57.1 69 37 30 39 23 -16.7 Jim Todd 1979 OAK A 51 0 81 108 66 59 51 26 -29.6 Dave Hamilton 1980 OAK A 21 1 30 44 39 38 28 23 -25.7 Bob Lacey 1981 CLE-TEX 15 0 22.1 37 21 19 3 11 -15.4 John Pacella 1982 NYA-MIN 24 2 61.2 74 56 50 46 22 -21.5 Mark Clear 1983 BOS A 48 0 96 101 71 67 68 81 -17.9 Dave Beard 1984 SEA A 43 0 76 88 56 49 33 40 -22.0 Rich Thompson 1985 CLE A 57 0 80 95 63 56 48 30 -27.4 Brian Fisher 1986 NY A 62 0 96.2 105 61 53 37 67 -17.0 Bob Shirley 1987 NYA-KCA 15 1 41.1 46 32 29 22 13 -14.4 John Davis 1988 CHI A 34 1 63.2 77 58 47 50 37 -29.6 Bob Stanley 1989 BOS A 43 0 79.1 102 54 43 26 32 -14.0 Rob Murphy 1990 BOS A 68 0 57 85 46 40 32 54 -19.2 Gene Nelson 1991 OAK A 44 0 48.2 60 38 37 23 23 -22.4 Les Lancaster 1992 DET A 41 1 86.2 101 66 61 51 35 -27.0 Neal Heaton 1993 NY A 18 0 27 34 19 18 11 15 -13.2 Greg Harris 1994 BOS-NYA 38 0 50.2 64 49 45 26 48 -19.5 Joe Boever 1995 DET A 60 0 98.2 128 74 70 44 71 -20.9 Keith Shepherd 1996 BAL A 13 0 20.2 31 27 20 18 17 -18.3 Norm Charlton 1997 SEA A 71 0 69.1 89 59 56 47 55 -25.7 James Baldwin 1998 CHI A 37 24 159 176 103 94 60 108 -16.8 Paul Assenmacher 1999 CLE A 55 0 33 50 32 30 17 29 -13.9 Allen Watson 2000 NY A 17 0 22 30 25 25 18 20 -17.3 Mark Petkovsek 2001 TEX A 55 0 76.2 103 61 57 28 42 -26.1 Jesus Colome 2002 TB A 32 0 41.1 56 41 38 33 33 -20.9 Jay Powell 2003 TEX A 51 0 58.2 75 58 51 34 40 -19.8 Mike DeJean 2004 BAL A 37 0 39.2 49 29 27 28 36 -17.4
Name Year Team G GS IP H R ER BB K A/BPF Don McMahon 1960 MIL N 48 0 63.2 66 48 42 32 50 -17.4 Don Elston 1961 CHI N 58 0 93.1 108 64 58 45 59 -25.4 Bob Anderson 1962 CHI N 57 4 107.2 111 70 60 60 82 -15.3 Ed Roebuck 1963 LA N 29 0 40.1 54 25 19 21 26 -15.2 Tommie Sisk 1964 PIT N 42 1 61.1 91 47 42 29 35 -16.3 Jack Baldschun 1965 PHI N 65 0 99 102 53 42 42 81 -23.2 Ron Taylor 1966 HOU N 36 1 64.2 89 47 41 10 29 -17.1 Hal Woodeshick 1967 STL N 36 0 41.2 41 29 24 28 20 -21.1 Ted Davidson 1968 CIN-ATL 27 0 28.1 37 20 20 11 10 -15.3 Gary Wagner 1969 PHI N 9 2 19.1 31 22 17 7 8 -15.3 Don Cardwell 1970 NYN-ATL 32 3 48 62 42 41 19 24 -21.3 Claude Raymond 1971 MON N 37 0 53.2 81 34 28 25 29 -13.9 Ed Acosta 1972 SD N 46 2 89 105 49 44 30 53 -18.0 Gary Ross 1973 SD N 58 0 76.1 93 51 46 33 44 -19.9 Jesus Hernaiz 1974 PHI N 27 0 41.1 53 31 27 25 16 -15.4 Darold Knowles 1975 CHI N 58 0 88.1 107 61 57 36 63 -13.7 Larry Hardy 1976 HOU N 15 0 21.2 34 19 17 10 10 -16.8 Dave Wehrmeister 1977 SD N 30 6 69.2 81 53 47 44 32 -20.2 Dave Tomlin 1978 CIN N 57 0 62.1 88 54 40 30 32 -29.9 Rollie Fingers 1979 SD N 54 0 83.2 91 47 42 37 65 -19.7 Fred Norman 1980 MON N 48 8 98 96 50 45 40 58 -12.2 Bobby Sprowl 1981 HOU N 15 1 28.2 40 20 19 14 18 -14.5 Frank LaCorte 1982 HOU N 55 0 76.1 71 44 38 46 51 -13.7 Ben Hayes 1983 CIN N 60 0 69.1 82 53 50 37 44 -19.4 Tom Hume 1984 CIN N 54 8 113.1 142 83 71 41 59 -25.5 Doug Sisk 1985 NY N 42 0 73 86 48 43 40 26 -18.3 Jay Baller 1986 CHI N 36 0 53.2 58 37 32 28 42 -15.9 Barry Jones 1987 PIT N 32 0 43.1 55 34 27 23 28 -15.9 Steve Peters 1988 STL N 44 0 45 57 34 32 22 30 -18.9 Jeff Robinson 1989 PIT N 50 19 141.1 161 92 72 59 95 -20.3 Frank DiPino 1990 STL N 62 0 81 92 45 41 31 49 -15.2 Juan Agosto 1991 STL N 72 0 86 92 52 46 39 34 -23.5 Barry Jones 1992 PHI-NYN 61 0 69.2 85 46 44 35 30 -19.4 Anthony Young 1993 NY N 39 10 100.1 103 62 42 42 62 -13.3 Richie Lewis 1994 FLA N 45 0 54 62 44 34 38 45 -15.5 Jose Bautista 1995 SF N 52 6 100.2 120 77 72 26 45 -25.6 Mark Small 1996 HOU N 16 0 24.1 33 23 16 13 16 -15.1 Jim Poole 1997 SF N 63 0 49.1 73 44 39 25 26 -24.9 Shayne Bennett 1998 MON N 62 0 91.2 97 61 56 45 59 -18.6 Vic Darensbourg 1999 FLA N 56 0 34.2 50 36 34 21 16 -28.5 Rich Rodriguez 2000 NY N 32 0 37 59 40 32 15 18 -21.7 Alan Embree 2001 SF N 22 0 20 34 26 25 10 25 -24.7 Kyle Farnsworth 2002 CHI N 45 0 46.2 53 47 38 24 46 -24.5 Jaret Wright 2003 SDN-ATL 50 0 56.1 76 46 46 31 50 -27.2 John Riedling 2004 CIN N 70 0 77.2 90 54 44 40 46 -27.7
The only players to trail their leagues twice are Darold Knowles and Barry Jones.
The players who both led and trailed their leagues are Rollie Fingers, Johnny Klippstein, Don McMahon, Tom Murphy, Dick Radatz and Bob Stanley.
I should point out that my method does not attempt to put the inning into context. A run saved in the 5th inning of a 19-3 blowout counts as much as a run saved in the 9th inning of a 2-1 game. As a result, this is perhaps not the best way to evaluate relief pitchers. For that, I recommend Doug Drinen's essay ("New Ways to Spell Relief") in the 1998 Big Bad Baseball Annual. He determines the probability that a team will win a game from every situation (for example: top of the sixth, man on first and down by two) encountered in a game. Perhaps, you can see where he's going with this; in any case, it's his essay, not mine, and I'll let you read it for yourself.
The top career relievers:
Name G GS IP H R ER BB K A/BPF Mariano Rivera 586 10 728.1 580 211 197 197 648 203.5 Rich Gossage 1002 37 1809.1 1497 670 605 732 1502 185.6 Lee Smith 1022 6 1289.1 1133 475 434 486 1251 161.8 Keith Foulke 501 8 660.1 519 232 223 156 625 161.1 Rollie Fingers 944 37 1701.1 1474 615 549 492 1299 159.7 Jesse Orosco 1252 4 1295 1055 512 455 581 1179 155.2 Hoyt Wilhelm 638 15 1230.2 898 388 315 365 965 146.9 i Tom Henke 642 0 789.2 607 252 234 255 861 146.9 Kent Tekulve 1050 0 1436.1 1305 526 455 491 779 145.0 Trevor Hoffman 696 0 764.2 575 257 233 225 861 143.2 Tug McGraw 820 35 1497.1 1305 581 513 569 1091 138.0 Dennis Eckersley 798 88 1376.2 1203 533 492 325 1263 133.2 Michael Jackson 1005 7 1188.1 983 492 451 464 1006 129.8 Steve Reed 803 0 838 770 360 327 274 615 123.9 John Hiller 545 43 1242 1040 438 391 535 1036 122.4 Dan Quisenberry 674 0 1043.1 1064 356 320 162 379 121.6 Armando Benitez 628 0 654 428 223 207 335 826 121.3 Billy Wagner 509 0 552.2 364 165 155 197 753 120.9 John Wetteland 618 17 765 616 287 249 252 804 120.4 Troy Percival 579 0 586.2 393 213 195 253 680 117.7 Mark Eichhorn 556 0 847.2 785 300 272 256 624 113.8 Bruce Sutter 661 0 1042.1 879 370 328 309 861 111.3 Randy Myers 728 12 884.2 758 338 314 396 884 105.4 Tom Gordon 550 82 1141.1 922 493 457 513 1142 104.6 Mike Marshall 723 24 1386.2 1281 548 484 514 880 102.0 i - incomplete
The bottom career relievers:
Name G GS IP H R ER BB K A/BPF Jerry Johnson 365 39 770.2 779 422 369 389 489 -60.2 Jack Baldschun 457 0 704 687 335 289 298 555 -55.7 Jim Todd 270 8 511 541 283 240 239 194 -51.4 Steve Shields 102 6 219 269 146 128 91 126 -48.3 Mike Kekich 235 112 860.2 875 485 439 442 497 -47.3 Dale Murray 518 1 902.1 976 448 386 329 400 -47.1 Scott Bailes 343 59 679.2 758 423 374 256 351 -46.0 Juan Agosto 543 2 626.1 639 313 279 248 307 -46.0 Steve Hargan 354 215 1632 1593 810 711 614 891 -45.9 Jim Crawford 181 14 431.1 477 252 211 182 276 -42.7 Brian Williams 238 41 487 552 352 308 286 339 -41.8 Frank LaCorte 251 30 475.1 448 291 267 254 365 -41.8 Ron Herbel 331 79 894 945 442 380 285 447 -41.6 Gary Ross 282 58 708.2 758 356 308 287 374 -40.8 Jeff Kaiser 50 0 52 68 60 53 46 38 -40.7 Dan McGinn 210 28 408.2 442 259 232 225 293 -38.4 Ken MacKenzie 129 1 208.1 231 129 111 63 142 -38.3 Jack Hamilton 218 65 611.2 597 357 308 348 357 -37.8 Arnold Earley 223 10 381.1 400 240 190 184 310 -37.1 Terry Mulholland 507 208 1693 1913 971 865 474 879 -36.6 Mike Barlow 133 2 246.2 279 147 127 104 96 -36.5 Jesse Jefferson 203 110 862 924 518 475 435 404 -35.3 Rocky Biddle 194 37 356 378 241 209 162 254 -35.1 Larry Hardy 94 1 126 171 83 74 56 70 -35.0 Dwayne Henry 256 1 334.2 298 184 173 216 275 -34.9
Jeff Kaiser managed to place on the list above despite pitching only 52 innings in his career.
When looking at base running and batting, I compared VA results to a linear weight method. For pitching, I decided to compare the results to Runs Below Average. This is a common way of evaluating pitchers and simply computes how many fewer (or more) runs each pitcher allowed compared to an average pitcher over the same number of innings. In keeping with our Value Added Pitching Runs, we have reversed the sign of the result so positive results are better than negative ones.
Here are the pitchers (both starters and relievers) with much higher Value Added Pitching Runs than Runs Below Average.
Name Year Team G GS IP H R ER BB K VARP RBA VA-RB Stu Miller 1961 SF N 63 0 122 95 41 36 37 89 34.1 21.0 13.1 Javier Lopez 2004 COL N 64 0 40.2 45 34 34 26 20 -0.0 -12.9 12.9 Gene Brabender 1970 MIL A 29 21 128.2 127 94 86 79 76 -21.4 -34.2 12.8 John Hiller 1973 DET A 65 0 125.1 89 21 20 39 124 51.6 38.9 12.7 Dennis Cook 1996 TEX A 60 0 70.1 53 34 32 35 64 20.9 8.4 12.6 Rob Gardner 1966 NY N 41 17 133.2 147 82 76 64 74 -9.2 -21.2 12.1 Bob Owchinko 1979 SD N 42 20 149.1 144 73 62 55 66 9.2 -2.9 12.1 Lee Smith 1981 CHI N 40 1 66.2 57 31 26 31 50 9.8 -2.2 11.9 Keith Atherton 1985 OAK A 56 0 104.2 89 51 50 42 77 14.3 2.5 11.8 Larry Gura 1983 KC A 34 31 200.1 220 119 109 76 57 -6.8 -18.5 11.6 Stan Thomas 1975 TEX A 46 1 81.1 72 36 28 34 46 14.6 3.0 11.6 Cecilio Guante 1983 PIT N 49 0 100.1 90 45 37 46 82 12.6 0.9 11.6 Ray Moore 1960 CHA-WS1 51 0 86.1 68 37 34 38 32 16.4 5.2 11.3 Len Barker 1983 CLE-ATL 30 30 182.2 181 109 99 66 126 -7.8 -18.8 11.0 Rick Sutcliffe 1992 BAL A 36 36 237.1 251 123 118 74 109 2.1 -8.6 10.7 Steve Frey 1992 CAL A 51 0 45.1 39 18 18 22 24 14.5 3.9 10.6 Mike Holtz 2000 ANA A 61 0 41 37 26 23 18 40 9.1 -1.5 10.6 Mark Guthrie 1992 MIN A 54 0 75 59 27 24 23 76 19.6 9.2 10.5 Mike Marshall 1973 MON N 92 0 179 163 62 53 75 124 29.9 19.8 10.1 Bob Lacey 1977 OAK A 64 0 121.2 100 46 41 43 69 25.8 15.6 10.1
And the flip side of the coin:
Name Year Team G GS IP H R ER BB K VARP RBA VA-RB Bob Wickman 1996 NYA-MIL 70 0 95.2 106 50 47 44 75 -9.4 7.6 -17.0 Dan Quisenberry 1987 KC A 47 0 49 58 15 15 10 17 -4.4 12.0 -16.4 Mike Garman 1975 STL N 66 0 79 73 31 21 48 48 -9.7 5.3 -15.0 Giovanni Carrara 2002 LA N 63 1 90.2 83 34 33 32 56 -3.7 10.9 -14.6 Phil Regan 1967 LA N 55 3 96.1 108 38 32 32 53 -11.1 3.1 -14.2 Mike DeJean 2004 BAL-NYN 54 0 61 70 34 31 33 60 -14.4 -0.7 -13.7 Terry Adams 1998 CHI N 63 0 72.2 72 39 35 41 73 -15.3 -1.8 -13.5 Jim Ray 1970 HOU N 52 2 105 97 39 38 49 67 0.5 13.9 -13.4 Jason Grimsley 2003 KC A 76 0 75 88 47 43 36 58 -19.6 -6.2 -13.4 Jack Baldschun 1962 PHI N 67 0 112.2 95 41 37 58 95 2.3 15.6 -13.3 Ron Kline 1965 WAS A 74 0 99.1 106 36 29 32 52 -5.6 7.6 -13.2 Don Nottebart 1967 CIN N 47 0 79.1 75 25 17 19 48 -4.3 8.8 -13.2 Jack Baldschun 1965 PHI N 65 0 99 102 53 42 42 81 -21.7 -8.7 -13.0 Rod Scurry 1982 PIT N 76 0 103.2 79 26 20 64 94 8.0 21.0 -13.0 Al Hrabosky 1979 KC A 58 0 65 67 31 27 41 39 -9.7 3.1 -12.8 Jeff Reardon 1982 MON N 75 0 109 87 28 25 36 86 8.7 21.4 -12.7 Joe Beckwith 1980 LA N 38 0 59.2 60 17 13 23 40 -2.8 9.7 -12.5 Danny Darwin 1982 TEX A 56 1 89 95 38 34 37 61 -6.0 6.5 -12.5 Terry Forster 1985 ATL N 46 0 59.1 49 22 15 28 37 -7.6 4.8 -12.5 Chuck McElroy 1999 COL-NYN 56 0 54 60 34 33 36 44 -16.6 -4.0 -12.5 Jose Santiago 2000 KC A 45 0 69 70 33 30 26 44 -4.3 8.3 -12.5 Nelson Cruz 2002 HOU N 43 5 78.1 90 44 39 29 61 -17.7 -5.2 -12.5
Given that our approach is interesting primarily when pitchers inherit runners, it is not surprising that relievers dominate both lists.
Stu Miller in 1961 actually did much better than you might expect from looking at his pitching line. He inherited 71 runners that year, including 36 in scoring position, and permitted only 15 of them to score. On the other hand, he left games with 12 runners on base and 10 of those scored. Bob Wickman in 1996 permitted 34 of his 68 inherited runners to score. He also left 31 runners on base and only 6 of those scored. The only pitcher on the list who started all his games was Len Barker in 1983. He left 26 runners on base that season and 20 of them came around to score. Similar stories can be told for all of the pitchers on these lists. The ones on the top list kept more than their share of inherited runners from scoring and saw a high percentage of their bequeathed runners score. The opposite was true for the pitchers on the bottom list.
Seasonal and career Value Added pitching data for all players from 1960 to 2004 is here.
I believe that the various Value Added methods described in this article give us a more accurate portrayal of a player's contribution than other methods like Linear Weights and Runs Below Average. This is probably not too surprising since the Value Added method uses detailed play-by-play data while the methods I've been comparing them to use only seasonal totals. Does this mean that we should replace those other methods with ours, at least for seasons for which we have play-by-play data? No. Each approach gives us insight into different aspects of what happened. Value Added methods are a context-sensitive measurement system. By this, I mean that it takes into account what else was going on when a player got a home run or a strikeout. Linear Weight systems (at least the ones that don't make the mistake of including runs scored and RBIs in their formula) are primarily context-insensitive; they credit a player so much per hit or out, without knowing or caring the circumstances surrounding the play. So if Jones and Smith hit the same number of home runs in the same number of at-bats, but Jones hit 80% of his with men on and Smith hit 80% of his with the bases empty, VA will rate Jones much higher (all other things being equal) while Linear Weight methods will rate them even. Who is correct? It depends upon what you're interested in. If you were trying to determine what happened in a given year - why a team scored 100 fewer runs than you thought they should have or who a team's most valuable player was - you'd want to look at VA. On the other hand, if you're trying to determine the best player on a team or the one most likely to do well next season, I think Linear Weights would do a better job. Why? Because some of what VA measures could simply be luck. Hitting a lot of home runs is skill. It's not clear that hitting better with men in scoring position is also a skill (although you never know). Luck does play a part in each baseball season. As a result, there should be some measurement that gives us an insight into how luck affected the fortunes of each team. But since luck tends not to carry-over from one year to the next, it's good that there are other measurements that ignore it. All of which is a long-winded way of saying that there is a place in baseball analysis for both classes of measurements.
Clearly this article represents one of the first rather than the last word in applying this technique to play-by-play data. I had to make a lot of decisions about how to apply Gary's work, decisions that many of you may not have agreed with. Some of these I might not even agree with a few years from now. Many readers may want to give baserunners some percentage of the credit for advancing more than one base on a single, or for scoring on a sacrifice fly; others may want to discount the value (for a batter) or the penalty (for a pitcher) of errors; still others may like another method of determining park factors; and many (I know) will not agree with my positional adjustment. Over the next few years, there is a lot of research needed in this area. By that time, even more of this kind of data will be available. At the beginning of their quixotic journey, Retrosheet's goal was to have complete play-by-play accounts of all the games of the 20th century. This seemed absurd back in the 1980s. In the last decade, we have made unbelievable progress, and while I would still say that our goals are not realistic, it would not surprise me if we come very close to doing what we set out to do. In the meantime, I think that the baseball research community should be formulating some kind of plan of what to do with all this information.