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What helps improve outcomes of industrial policy in developing countries? Evidence from Russia
In developing countries, implementing effective industrial policies faces challenges due to capacity and governance constraints, hindering accumulation of recognized success stories. This impedes our understanding of effective industrial policy tools in countries with accountability deficits. This article explores Russia's Industrial Development Fund (IDF) support programs, initiated since 2014, aimed at promoting import substitution through low-interest loans to industrial firms. These IDF programs appeared to be more effective than most other Russia’s industrial policy instruments. The article shows that they have resulted in statistically significant sales growth for supported businesses. It highlights institutional features contributing to program effectiveness, ensuring the integrity of beneficiary selection and project support. It offers valuable insights for organizations implementing state support programs in challenging governance conditions. Additionally, the recent emergence of more effective industrial policy tools like the IDF may partly explain Russia's increased economic resilience against international sanctions imposed due to the war in Ukraine.