Previous Rankings: 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007
While it's entirely likely you'll skip right ahead to the rankings, we wanted to provide some context for the list. As always, prospect lists are a snapshot in time—in this case January 1, when the list was compiled. It's possible a prospect's situation has changed since then, or that our evaluator's feelings on a prospect have changed, due to new information. Within a week of the list being submitted, Jeffrey Paternostro told me there were only seven rankings he hated already. I'm guessing that number has risen as time's gone on. We hope you enjoy reading and debating the list as much as we enjoyed putting it together. —Craig Goldstein
1. Alex Reyes, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
Scouting Report: LINK
2. Dansby Swanson, SS, Atlanta Braves
Scouting Report: LINK
3. Andrew Benintendi, OF, Boston Red Sox
Scouting Report: LINK
4. J.P. Crawford, SS, Philadelphia Phillies
Scouting Report: LINK
5. Yoan Moncada, 2B/3B, Chicago White Sox
Scouting Report: LINK
6. Austin Meadows, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
Scouting Report: LINK
7. Victor Robles, OF, Washington Nationals
Scouting Report: LINK
8. Amed Rosario, SS, New York Mets
Scouting Report: LINK
9. Eloy Jimenez, OF, Chicago Cubs
Scouting Report: LINK
10. Lucas Giolito, RHP, Chicago White Sox
Scouting Report: LINK
11. Brendan Rodgers, SS, Colorado Rockies
Scouting Report: LINK
12. Lewis Brinson, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
Scouting Report: LINK
13. Rafael Devers, 3B, Boston Red Sox
Scouting Report: LINK
14. Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Scouting Report: LINK
15. Gleyber Torres, SS, New York Yankees
Scouting Report: LINK
16. Clint Frazier, OF, New York Yankees
Scouting Report: LINK
17. Robert Gsellman, RHP, New York Mets
Scouting Report: LINK
18. Manuel Margot, OF, San Diego Padres
Scouting Report: LINK
19. Josh Hader, LHP, Milwaukee Brewers
Scouting Report: LINK
20. Nick Senzel, 3B, Cincinnati Reds
Scouting Report: LINK
21. Willy Adames, SS, Tampa Bay Rays
Scouting Report: LINK
22. Brent Honeywell, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
Scouting Report: LINK
23. Yadier Alvarez, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Scouting Report: LINK
24. Anderson Espinoza, RHP, San Diego Padres
Scouting Report: LINK
25. Josh Bell, 1B/OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
Scouting Report: LINK
26. Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
Scouting Report: LINK
27. Mitch Keller, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Scouting Report: LINK
28. Francis Martes, RHP, Houston Astros
Scouting Report: LINK
29. Jason Groome, LHP, Boston Red Sox
Scouting Report: LINK
30. Reynaldo Lopez, RHP, Chicago White Sox
Scouting Report: LINK
31. Ronald Acuna, OF, Atlanta Braves
Scouting Report: LINK
32. Amir Garrett, LHP, Cincinnati Reds
Scouting Report: LINK
33. Jorge Alfaro, C, Philadelphia Phillies
Scouting Report: LINK
34. Francisco Mejia, C, Cleveland Indians
Scouting Report: LINK
35. Ozhaino Albies, SS/2B, Atlanta Braves
Scouting Report: LINK
36. Michael Kopech, RHP, Chicago White Sox
Scouting Report: LINK
37. Kyle Tucker, OF, Houston Astros
Scouting Report: LINK
38. Jose De Leon, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
Scouting Report: LINK
39. Yohander Mendez, LHP, Texas Rangers
Scouting Report: LINK
40. Sandy Alcantara, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
Scouting Report: LINK
41. Corey Ray, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
Scouting Report: LINK
42. Raimel Tapia, OF, Colorado Rockies
Scouting Report: LINK
43. Jorge Mateo, SS/2B/OF, New York Yankees
Scouting Report: LINK
44. Sean Newcomb, LHP, Atlanta Braves
Scouting Report: LINK
45. Cal Quantrill, RHP, San Diego Padres
Scouting Report: LINK
46. Riley Pint, RHP, Colorado Rockies
Scouting Report: LINK
47. Franklin Barreto, SS, Oakland Athletics
Scouting Report: LINK
48. Nick Gordon, SS, Minnesota Twins
Scouting Report: LINK
49. Blake Rutherford, OF, New York Yankees
Scouting Report: LINK
50. Jeff Hoffman, RHP, Colorado Rockies
Scouting Report: LINK
51. Nick Williams, OF, Philadelphia Phillies
Scouting Report: LINK
52. Justus Sheffield, LHP, New York Yankees
Scouting Report: LINK
53. Tyler O'Neill, OF, Seattle Mariners
Scouting Report: LINK
54. Ian Happ, 2B/OF, Chicago Cubs
Scouting Report: LINK
55. Triston McKenzie, RHP, Cleveland Indians
Scouting Report: LINK
56. Mickey Moniak, OF, Philadelphia Phillies
Scouting Report: LINK
57. Juan Soto, OF, Washington Nationals
Scouting Report: LINK
58. James Kaprielian, RHP, New York Yankees
Scouting Report: LINK
59. Isan Diaz, SS, Milwaukee Brewers
Scouting Report: LINK
60. Grant Holmes, RHP, Oakland Athletics
Scouting Report: LINK
61. A.J. Puk, LHP, Oakland Athletics
Scouting Report: LINK
62. Erick Fedde, RHP, Washington Nationals
Scouting Report: LINK
63. Aaron Judge, OF, New York Yankees
Scouting Report: LINK
64. Mike Soroka, RHP, Atlanta Braves
Scouting Report: LINK
65. Kevin Newman, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates
Scouting Report: LINK
66. Alex Verdugo, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
Scouting Report: LINK
67. Kolby Allard, LHP, Atlanta Braves
Scouting Report: LINK
68. Luis Ortiz, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers
Scouting Report: LINK
69. Thomas Szapucki, LHP, New York Mets
Scouting Report: LINK
70. Kyle Lewis, OF, Seattle Mariners
Scouting Report: LINK
71. Braxton Garrett, LHP, Miami Marlins
Scouting Report: LINK
72. Ariel Jurado, RHP, Texas Rangers
Scouting Report: LINK
73. Leody Taveras, OF, Texas Rangers
Scouting Report: LINK
74. Franklyn Kilome, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
Scouting Report: LINK
75. Brett Phillips, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
Scouting Report: LINK
76. Chance Sisco, C, Baltimore Orioles
Scouting Report: LINK
77. Albert Almora, OF, Chicago Cubs
Scouting Report: LINK
78. Jahmai Jones, OF, Los Angeles Angels
Scouting Report: LINK
79. Delvin Perez, SS, St. Louis Cardinals
Scouting Report: LINK
80. Bradley Zimmer, OF, Cleveland Indians
Scouting Report: LINK
81. Carson Kelly, C, St. Louis Cardinals
Scouting Report: LINK
82. Albert Abreu, RHP, New York Yankees
Scouting Report: LINK
83. David Paulino, RHP, Houston Astros
Scouting Report: LINK
84. Franklin Perez, RHP, Houston Astros
Scouting Report: LINK
85. Sean Reid-Foley, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Scouting Report: LINK
86. Frankie Montas, RHP, Oakland Athletics
Scouting Report: LINK
87. Trevor Clifton, RHP, Chicago Cubs
Scouting Report: LINK
88. Matt Manning, RHP, Detroit Tigers
Scouting Report: LINK
89. Zack Collins, C, Chicago White Sox
Scouting Report: LINK
90. Yusniel Diaz, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
Scouting Report: LINK
91. Adonis Medina, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
Scouting Report: LINK
92. Hunter Renfroe, OF, San Diego Padres
Scouting Report: LINK
93. Anthony Alford, OF, Toronto Blue Jays
Scouting Report: LINK
94. Walker Buehler, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Scouting Report: LINK
95. Anderson Tejeda, SS, Texas Rangers
Scouting Report: LINK
96. Ian Anderson, RHP, Atlanta Braves
Scouting Report: LINK
97. Alec Hansen, RHP, Chicago White Sox
Scouting Report: LINK
98. Tyler Jay, LHP, Minnesota Twins
Scouting Report: LINK
99. Trent Clark, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
Scouting Report: LINK
100. Kevin Maitan, SS, Atlanta Braves
Scouting Report: LINK
101. Tyler Wade, IF/OF, New York Yankees
Scouting Report: LINK
Thank you for reading
This is a free article. If you enjoyed it, consider subscribing to Baseball Prospectus. Subscriptions support ongoing public baseball research and analysis in an increasingly proprietary environment.
Subscribe now
I'm very surprised by the difference in Yohander Mendez on your list and BA's top 100. You have him 39, they have him un-ranked. What do you believe is the cause of this disparity?
To make up for it - from a Mets point of view - Gsellman ranks 50 spots ahead of the consensus. Will be fun to look back in a couple of years.
That said, I've seen Smith 15 times or so over the last three years and wrote about him plenty. You can disagree with us leaving him off, and many will, but I don't think it should be shocking. Also, internally he didn't really get pushed by any of our other authors for a spot, and there were plenty of cases in the back 10-20 spots where I got convinced on a guy by our team.
Thanks for playing, Wilson! It's a very interesting and -- I've no doubt -- well-deliberated list.
I've written a lot about Gsellman on the site, but the stuff has jumped this year. The fastball looks plus-plus now, a sinker with hard, late movement in the mid-90s, the slider is a potential plus pitch and the curve has tightened up as he's thrown the hard slider more. That's a 70 FB / 60 SL / 55 CU from a guy that is already in the majors. The proximity, floor, and still remaining upside if the command and change find another half grade makes him one of the best pitching prospects in baseball for us.
Honestly, there were rumblings out of both Bingo and Vegas before Gsellman's call-up that he was gaining velocity and the slider was tightening. It didn't show up in the performance until he hit the majors, but it's not entirely not without foundation.
We've seen guys in top 100's from various sites like A Blair and J Thompson in the past, get a month or two of starts and fall off the map.
I realize proximity to majors decreases risk. But I guess in general, does the team here favor say a guy in AAA who may be a 3/4 SP, or a teenager with stuff who may be more than that?
That's not really satisfying, I know, but all teenagers with stuff are not built alike, really, and nor are all mid-rotation starter types. I think it's clear given the aggressive rankings on guys like Alvarez and Espinoza that we like the high-upside guys with risk. But then we also have Pint a little lower, and Szapucki lower still, so it's all about how much risk they carry at a given moment, and the various ways that risk can play out, plus how likely we think those various scenarios are.
Then you balance that with the guys closer to the majors who might have less risk, but less reward. And any risk they do have might have a bigger effect on the overall profile, too, since there's less margin for error in total. So there might be an overall trend or philosophy for us as a team/site it's more about breaking down the component pieces and trying to make sure it all makes sense.
He could get there throwing a full season sitting a tick or two higher like he did at times, and with either breaker getting a bit better, but of course if he does that he likely isn't list-eligible next year.
Still though, #5 overall is pretty damn good, and the difference between #1 and #5 isn't that much.
It's certainly possible that Moncada really hits and nobody else in the top five does because it's a prospect list, but I like him where he is.
The (terrible) Mountain Goats while he did the list, maybe it wud huv been uh bettah list.
Craig, what is the best prospect?
I'll hang up and listen.
And I realize there will be an article or two on guys who just-missed.
But did anyone consider making a supplement to it, say 101-200, and just putting the names in chunks of like 25 per group. Seems like a lot of data and discussion gets left on the cutting room floor.
I can't imagine the comments...." why wasn't so-and-so included; or he should have been in the 150-175 tier"
Yes, I know most of the stuff gets throw into the team prospect top 10s. But you can't say their wouldn't be a demand for it - either a top 200, or team top 20's.
Just a thought.
Reality is that no matter where you cut off a list, people are going to ask about the next names just off of it. So there's always going to be some level of demand for the type of thing you describe.
I think at some point, though, you lose value. We already cover 300-450 prospects between the Top 10s and the others of note. We rank them according to OFP/Likely, so if you want to delve into fluid-ish blocks for the next 100 names, you could group players that way and it would likely be fairly representative.
"Once you have told the mouse where Dom Smith would have fallen in the rankings, he will ask about Adrian Morejon..."
Question for amateur prospect hounds: I have an upcoming pick in a prospect draft. These are not top 100 guys and won't be for at least another year or two, but would you rather have the Braves' Cristian Pache or the Rays' Jesus Sanchez?