3 reasons it's different this time: Every advantage the Bills have against the Chiefs

lt's go time, folks.

In one of the most highly anticipated matchups of this 2024 NFL campaign, the Buffalo Bills will host the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday afternoon at Highmark Stadium, marking the fifth straight year these two AFC powerhouses have met in the regular season.

The Bills have taken the last three games, all of which were contested at Arrowhead Stadium. The last time these two teams met in Orchard Park during the regular season was in 2020, a game where zero members of Bills Mafia were in attendance due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The Chiefs took a 26-17 win that Monday night.

Unfortunately for Sean McDermott's squad, the recent success they've had against Kansas City hasn't translated to the postseason.

In addition to the four regular-season matchups these two teams have played over the last four years, they've also met in the playoffs on three occasions, with the Chiefs winning all three, the last coming in the Divisional Round just under 10 months ago in western New York.

But what's done is done, and the Bills simply have to focus on beating this KC team, one that looks very beatable despite winning its last 15 games dating back to last season. Of the nine wins the Chiefs have this year, seven have been by seven points or less. And their +58 point differential is the lowest of any 9-0 team in league history. So, there's some sense of vulnerability here.

Is this a must-win for Buffalo? Absolutely not. Given the massive lead they've got in the AFC East, the Bills are essentially already guaranteed to win the division for the fifth straight season. That said, however, this matchup could easily end up determining the No. 1 seed in the AFC, so having that head-to-head tiebreaker could be critical.

While the Chiefs undoubtedly have certain advantages, the Bills have plenty of their own as well. And if they can win in these key areas, they'll win this football game.

Josh Allen has been better that Patrick Mahomes this season

Naturally, much of the attention surrounding this game is on the quarterback position, as Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen are easily two of the best in the world at what they do.

Now, from an overall career standpoint, Mahomes obviously has the edge with his two NFL MVP wins, his three Super Bowl rings, and his three Super Bowl MVP trophies. When looking at just this 2024 season, however, Allen has clearly been the better quarterback.

During the Chiefs' undefeated start, Mahomes has thrown just 12 touchdown passes and has a passer rating of 90.3, both representing the lowest marks of his career through nine games. He's also thrown nine interceptions, tied for the fourth-most in the NFL. If this pace continues, he'll easily surpass the career-worst 14 he tossed a season ago.

Allen, on the other hand, has taken tremendous care of the football. He's famously had issues with turnovers in the past, but this season has been a different story. While he has thrown four interceptions in his last three outings, those are the only four he's thrown all year.

His 17 touchdown passes are tied for the fourth-most in the league, and his passer rating (100.2) is nearly 10 points higher than that of Mahomes.

As the Kansas City defense is one of the best in the league against the run, allowing the third-fewest rushing yards per game (83.2), the Bills will likely take to the air often, which naturally means Allen will need to be at his best for Buffalo to have a chance.

It's no secret that Steve Spagnuolo likes to attack the quarterback, which is why the Chiefs have the third-highest blitz rate on opponent dropbacks (36.9%). But that's where Allen has thrived this year, throwing for 705 yards with a league-leading 11 touchdowns and zero interceptions when blitzed.

If Allen can continue to stay poised when pressured and get back to protecting the ball, he should have a big day.

Buffalo has forced far more turnovers than Kansas City

The fact of the matter is that Kansas City has a better defense than Buffalo, allowing fewer points (17.9 to 19.3), fewer rushing yards (83.2 to 123.2), and fewer passing yards (206.7 to 212.9) per game.

Add those last two numbers up, and the Chiefs have given up just 289.2 total yards, the fourth-fewest in the NFL. The Bills, meanwhile, rank 18th in that regard at 336.1.

Where Buffalo has the advantage, though, is in the turnover department.

As good as the Chiefs' defense has been, Spags' unit has only forced eight turnovers thus far, only good for a tie for 23rd. The Buffalo defense, however, has racked up 19 takeaways, tied for the second-most in the league, 11 coming from interceptions and the other eight on fumbles.

And with Allen and the offense doing their job protecting the ball, the Bills' overall turnover differential is the best in the league at +13. At -4, the Chiefs are tied for the ninth-worst. If Buffalo can force Mahomes into a couple of picks and win the turnover battle, they'll win this game.

The Bills are the better second-half team

It's no secret that the Chiefs have long been one of the best second-half teams in football. Look no further than the fact that they overcame 10-point deficits in each of their three recent Super Bowl victories for proof of that.

That success has continued this season, as eight of their nine victories have been of the come-from-behind variety. And their +36 point margin over the final 30 minutes ranks fifth in the league.

But Buffalo has been even better in this area, and it all starts coming out of the locker room after the break.

In the third quarter alone, the Bills have outscored opponents by a combined margin of 56 points, easily leading the NFL. Overall, Buffalo has a +77 point differential in the second half, the second-best mark in the league, trailing only the Pittsburgh Steelers (+80).

If the Bills can avoid a slow start, which has been an issue at times, and keep this game close heading into the second half, they can end the Chiefs' winning streak.