Chiefs successor to Travis Kelce may have flown under the radar all along

When Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce decides to hang up his cleats, he will adorned with a golden jacket and enshrined in the Pro Football Hall of Fame in Canton, Ohio. The dominant tight end has accumulated four first-team All-Pro selections to go along with his nine Pro Bowl seasons and three Super Bowl championships. 

Ever since the Chiefs offense first began to blossom during the 2017 season, Kelce has served as its vital centerpiece. Even then, with quarterback Alex Smith at the helm, it was evident that Chiefs head coach Andy Reid had built a high-flying aerial attack.

The Chiefs’ West Coast offense — and Kelce’s role in it — was born after Reid watched Tom Brady pick apart his defense from an unconventional shotgun formation in Super Bowl XXXVII. During that loss, Reid’s offense ran just 13 plays from the shotgun formation. Over the past two years, Reid’s offense ran 79.4 percent of its plays from shotgun.

In Reid’s shotgun-heavy system, Kelce has frequently detached from the formation as a Y-Iso tight end. Despite being listed as a tight end on the roster, the alignment effectively positioned Kelce to play as a wide receiver, and he has thrived in that role.

The Chiefs’ dynastic run would not have been possible without Kelce, but the 35-year-old veteran is slowly inching closer to the end of his playing career.

The Chiefs are slowly moving on from Travis Kelce

When Kelce retires, Reid will have to redefine the team’s offensive identity and find a new weapon to build around. The Chiefs attempted to get a head start on developing Kelce’s successor by drafting TCU tight end Jared Wiley in the fourth round of the 2024 NFL Draft. 

Instead, veteran tight end Noah Gray has emerged as the leading candidate to take over Kelce’s role. Over the past two games, Gray has reeled in eight catches for 89 yards and four touchdowns. Through 11 games this season, he has already set a career-high in receiving yards (315) and touchdowns (4).

The four-year veteran has served in a supplemental role behind Kelce throughout his career, but his snap count has increased incrementally each season. Gray has been on the field for 62 percent of the Chiefs’ offensive snaps in 2024. 

Meanwhile, Kelce’s snap count has steadily declined since he logged a career-high 993 offensive snaps in 2018. Kelce's snap share fell from 95 percent in 2018 to 93 percent in 2019, then to 86 percent in 2020 and 82 percent in 2021. Despite playing a career-high 17 games in 2022, his snap count decreased to 80 percent. Last season, Kelce was on the field for just 77 percent of the team's offensive snaps. 

Although the future Hall of Famer has a 83 percent snap count this season, much of that has been due to the team’s reliance on 12 personnel packages, which deploy two tight ends on the field at the same time.

Despite capturing his ninth consecutive Pro Bowl and a third Super Bowl championship in 2023, Kelce didn’t seem as capable of carrying the entire offense. After seven consecutive seasons with at least 1,000 receiving yards, he recorded just 984 yards and five touchdowns in 2023. By his standards, those are disappointing numbers.

“Last year was pretty taxing on my body," Kelce told reporters during training camp. "I've had more snaps than a lot of guys — if not everybody in the NFL — over the past five, six years, and I'm very prideful of that, but I know it has taken a toll on my body.”

Right now, it’s hard to envision what the next iteration of Reid’s offense will look like, but Gray appears to be a part of the team’s future plans. The Chiefs made Kelce the highest-paid tight end this offseason, but their on-field investment in Gray has become apparent.