Typhoon Hagibis

 

In early October, a poorly-organized and broad area of storms persisted over 1,500 km (930 mi) east of Guam. With favorable atmospheric conditions and warm sea surface temperatures prevailing, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) began noting the possibility of tropical cyclogenesis on October 4,^[8] eventually issuing a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert the next day.^[9] The system initially remained stationary,^[10] consolidating a center of circulation in the lower levels of the atmosphere.^[9] The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) declared the disturbance a tropical depression at 00:00 UTC on October 5.^[4] At the time, the system was 1,030 km (640 mi) northeast of Pohnpei, quickly developing cumulonimbus clouds around its center and establishing conducive outflow as it tracked west around the periphery of an area of high pressure.^[11][12] The tropical depression strengthened into a tropical storm by 18:00 UTC on October 5 while 1,560 km (970 mi) east of Guam,^[4] gaining the name Hagibis.^[13] A dominant curved rainband had begun to wrap around the center of Hagibis, signifying further organization.^[14] On October 6, the storm made a slight turn towards the west-southwest and began an accelerated period of intensification within an environment with low wind shear and atop warm waters,^[15][4] reaching severe tropical storm intensity at 12:00 UTC and typhoon strength six hours later as it developed a small eye.^[4][16]

Typhoon Hagibis entered a period of explosive intensification on October 7,^[17] with its central pressure falling 55 hPa (mbar; 1.62 inHg) in 12 hours according to the JMA.^[4] Estimates from the JTWC suggested a 185 km/h (115 mph) increase in the storm's maximum winds in 22 hours. During this phase, Hagibis maintained a pinhole eye 9 km (5.6 mi) across, encircled by a highly compact and sharply-defined eyewall.^[17] The rate of intensification was among the fastest observed in the Western Pacific.^[18] According to the JMA, Hagibis reached its peak intensity at 09:00 UTC on October 7 with a minimum pressure of 915 hPa (mbar; 27.02 inHg) and 10-minute sustained winds of 195 km/h (121 mph); Hagibis would maintain this intensity for 72 hours.^[4] The JTWC classified Hagibis as a super typhoon early on October 7,^[19] and later assessed peak 1-minute sustained winds of 295 km/h (185 mph), while also estimating a pressure of 890 hPa (mbar; 26.28 inHg), as Hagibis passed just south of Anatahan in the Northern Mariana Islands.^[20] Hagibis was unusually rapid in its trek through the Mariana Islands, traveling with a forward motion of 27–34 km/h (17–21 mph).^[21]

 

After passing the Mariana Islands, Hagibis began an eyewall replacement cycle, which caused the rapid intensification phase to end. As the primary eyewall began to erode,^[22] the JTWC downgraded the typhoon to a Category 4-equivalent super typhoon at 00:00 UTC on October 8. Several hours later, Hagibis completed the eyewall replacement cycle and reintensified to Category 5-equivalent intensity, attaining a secondary peak intensity with 1-minute sustained winds of 280 km/h (175 mph). Hagibis began to weaken on October 10, as sea surface temperatures decreased and wind shear increased. Mild strengthening was forecast shortly after Hagibis downgraded to a Category 3 typhoon, but this prediction failed to materialize, as the storm neared land and its outer rainbands began to erode. After gradual weakening, Hagibis made landfall on Shizuoka as a Category 2-equivalent typhoon, with 1-minute sustained winds of 155 km/h (96 mph), at around 08:30 UTC on October 12. While over Japan, Hagibis became disorganized from high wind shear and eventually became extratropical on October 13.^[23] Afterward, the extratropical remnant of Hagibis accelerating northeastward, for the next few days. From October 16 to 20, Hagibis made a counter-clockwise loop over the western Bering Sea, while gradually weakening. Afterward, the remnant of Hagibis drifted southwestward and then eastward, before dissipating on October 22.

On October 7, U.S. president Donald Trump approved an emergency declaration and evacuation orders for Guam and the Mariana Islands ahead of Hagibis, with typhoon warnings issued on the islands of Saipan, Tinian, Alamagan, and Pagan.^[24]

 

Forecasts across eastern, western, and northern Japan called for strong winds and torrential rain that would likely cause flooding and mudslides.^[25] JR Group, Japan Airlines, and All Nippon Airways suspended services.^[26] JMA weather forecaster, Yasushi Kajiwara, said, "It is a level 5 situation; some sort of disaster may have already taken place. People are strongly advised to act to protect their lives right away."^[27] Evacuation orders have been issued to more than 800,000 households across 11 prefectures.^[28] Over 230,000 people took the advice to head to evacuation shelters.^[29]

The typhoon had effects on several major sporting events occurring in Japan. Three matches of the 2019 Rugby World Cup were cancelled due to Hagibis, including the Pool B matches between New Zealand and Italy, and Canada and Namibia, and the Pool C match between England and France. This marked the first time that matches have been cancelled in the history of the Rugby World Cup.^[30][31] All cancelled matches were counted as draws: the cancelled fixture effectively eliminated Italy from the tournament, as they had a chance to potentially qualify for the knockout stage with a sufficient margin of victory against New Zealand.^[32]

On October 11, it was announced that the Saturday practice session for the 2019 Japanese Grand Prix at Suzuka Circuit would be cancelled, and the Saturday qualifying session was postponed to Sunday morning prior to the race.^[33] The F4 Japanese Championship cancelled its round at the circuit as well.^[34] Nippon Professional Baseball postponed both Game 4 Climax Series games in the 2019 Pacific League Climax Series and the 2019 Central League Climax Series, despite the games being played indoors in domed stadiums^[a]. Both games were planned to take place on Saturday, October 12, one in Tokorozawa, Saitama, and the other in Bunkyō, Tokyo. The games were instead played the next day on Sunday, October 13.^[35]

^a The Belluna Dome, where the 2019 Pacific League Climax Series was being held, lacks a wall behind the stands despite being a closed roof stadium.

The Mariana Islands were glanced by Typhoon Hagibis. Acting Governor Arnold Palacios began giving "all-clear" signals based on information from the National Weather Service and CNMI Emergency Operations Center. Communities have been cleaning up debris and all evacuation centers are now closed. On October 12, most utilities were restored and had started reopening.^[39]

 

Early on October 12, a tornado struck Ichihara City, which killed one person and left two people injured.^[40] In the afternoon, some areas of Japan suffered heavy flooding, with tens of thousands of homes without power. The Japan Meteorological Agency warned that high winds could cause further flooding and landslides. The agency issued evacuation advisories in high-risk areas.^[41] Over 76 centimetres (30 in) of rain fell in parts of Japan. Japan's Fire and Disaster Management Agency stated that at 139 have been confirmed dead of which 118 were directly caused and 21 post-disaster and 3 people missing, with 388 people injured by the storm, 48 of which seriously.^[42] More than 270,000 households lost power across the country.^[43] Ten trains of the Hokuriku Shinkansen Line in Nagano City were inundated by flood waters, leading to the scrapping of the trains and a loss of ¥32.8 billion (US$300 million).^[44] Total economic losses across the nation were huge, which stood at ¥1.88 trillion (US$17.3 billion).^[7]

At around 18:22 JST (09:22 UTC) on October 12, a magnitude 5.7 earthquake occurred off the coast of Chiba Prefecture, worsening the dangerous conditions already created by Hagibis.^[45]

 

Hagibis also led to the cancellation of several sporting events, such as three Rugby World Cup 2019 matches; involving Namibia versus Canada, New Zealand versus Italy, and England versus France,^[46][47] and the third practice and qualifying for the Japanese Grand Prix.^[33] Qualifying for the Grand Prix was rescheduled to the Sunday morning before the race.

Due to the severe impacts of Typhoon Hagibis in Japan, the name Hagibis was officially retired during the 52nd Annual Session, organized by the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee in February 2020. In February 2021, the Typhoon Committee subsequently chose Ragasa as its replacement name.^[48]

• Weather of 2019
• Tropical cyclones in 2019

Historical comparisons to Hagibis:

• Typhoon Ida (1958) – An intense, but deadlier typhoon that also affected similar areas; known as the Kanogawa Typhoon in Japan.
• Typhoon Tip (1979) – The largest and most intense tropical cyclone on record, which took a similar path to Hagibis.
• Typhoon Mireille (1991) – A powerful typhoon that hit Japan and became the costliest typhoon on record, adjusted for inflation.
• Typhoon Higos (2002) – A strong typhoon which was slightly weaker than Hagibis but had a comparable track and also affected Japan.
• Typhoon Ma-on (2004) – Another intense typhoon which also had a similar track to Hagibis and also affected the Japanese Grand Prix.
• Typhoon Phanfone (2014) – Another strong typhoon that made a comparable trajectory; also affected the Japanese Grand Prix.
• Typhoon Jebi (2018) – The costliest typhoon on record in Japan in terms of insured losses.
• Typhoon Faxai (2019) – Another powerful typhoon which struck Japan a few weeks before Hagibis.

 

Wikimedia Commons has media related to Typhoon Hagibis (2019).

• Digital Typhoon: Typhoon201919 (HAGIBIS) - National Institute of Informatics

• Japan Meteorological Agency's website
• Joint Typhoon Warning Center's website