Search Results

Using judgment to select and adjust forecasts from statistical models,
Shari De Baets and Nigel Harvey, in European Journal of Operational Research (2020)
Keywords: Forecasting; Judgmental selection; Judgmental adjustment; Forecast support systems;

Judgmental forecast adjustments over different time horizons,
Maud van den Broeke, Shari de Baets, Ann Vereecke, Philippe Baecke and Karlien Vanderheyden, from HAL (2019)
Keywords: Judgmental forecasting,Empirical analysis,Time horizon,Operations

Judgmental forecast adjustments over different time horizons,
Maud Van den Broeke, Shari De Baets, Ann Vereecke, Philippe Baecke and Karlien Vanderheyden, in Omega (2019)
Keywords: Judgmental forecasting; Empirical analysis; Time horizon; Operations;

What Influences Overprecision in Judgmental Forecasting?,
Marcin Czupryna and Elżbieta Kubinska, in Journal for Economic Forecasting (2019)
Keywords: judgmental forecasting, illusion of control, overprecision, asymmetric reward function, confidence intervals

Judgmental Selection of Forecasting Models (Reprint),
Fotios Petropoulos, Nikolaos Kourentzes, Konstantinos Nikolopoulos and Enno Siemsen, from Springer (2023)
Keywords: Judgmental forecasting, Model selection, Behavioral operations, Decomposition, Combination

The Sum and Its Parts: Judgmental Hierarchical Forecasting,
Mirko Kremer, Enno Siemsen and Douglas J. Thomas, in Management Science (2016)
Keywords: judgmental forecasting, nonstationary demand, covariation detection, behavioral operations, bottom-up forecasting, random judgment error

Expertise, credibility of system forecasts and integration methods in judgmental demand forecasting,
Jorge Alvarado-Valencia, Lope H. Barrero, Dilek Önkal and Jack T. Dennerlein, in International Journal of Forecasting (2017)
Keywords: Judgmental forecasting; Expert selection; Expert elicitation method; Credibility of system forecasts;

Case Article—Canyon Bicycles: Judgmental Demand Forecasting in Direct Sales,
Christoph Diermann and Arnd Huchzermeier, in INFORMS Transactions on Education (2017)
Keywords: judgmental demand forecasting; demand uncertainty; debiasing demand forecasts; forecast accuracy

Case—Canyon Bicycles: Judgmental Demand Forecasting in Direct Sales,
Christoph Diermann and Arnd Huchzermeier, in INFORMS Transactions on Education (2017)
Keywords: judgmental demand forecasting; demand uncertainty; debiasing demand forecasts; forecast accuracy

Integrating management judgment and statistical methods to improve short-term forecasts,
Paul Goodwin, in Omega (2002)
Keywords: Forecasting Judgment Bias Time series Decision support

Do ‘big losses’ in judgmental adjustments to statistical forecasts affect experts’ behaviour?,
Fotios Petropoulos, Robert Fildes and Paul Goodwin, in European Journal of Operational Research (2016)
Keywords: Forecasting; Judgment; Behavioural analytics; Decision support systems;

The efficacy of using judgmental versus quantitative forecasting methods in practice,
Nada R. Sanders and Karl B. Manrodt, in Omega (2003)
Keywords: Forecasting Judgmental methods Quantitative methods Empirical research

Heuristics, biases and improvement strategies in judgmental time series forecasting,
P Goodwin and G Wright, in Omega (1994)
Keywords: exponential smoothing forecasting judgment time series

Forecasting in Organizations: Reinterpreting Collective Judgment Through Mindful Organizing,
Efrain Rosemberg Montes, from Springer (2023)
Keywords: Group judgment, Mindful organizing, Debiasing, Group forecasting

Judgmental adjustments in tourism forecasting practice: How good are they?,
Vera Shanshan Lin, in Tourism Economics (2019)
Keywords: adjustment behaviour; econometric models; Hong Kong; judgmental forecasting; tourism demand

Relative performance of judgmental methods for forecasting the success of megaprojects,
Konstantia Litsiou, Yiannis Polychronakis, Azhdar Karami and Konstantinos Nikolopoulos, in International Journal of Forecasting (2022)
Keywords: Judgmental forecasting; Megaprojects; Semi-experts; Structured analogies; Interaction groups;

Measuring forecasting accuracy: The case of judgmental adjustments to SKU-level demand forecasts,
Andrey Davydenko and Robert Fildes, in International Journal of Forecasting (2013)
Keywords: Judgmental adjustments; Forecasting support systems; Forecast accuracy; Forecast evaluation; Forecast error measures;

Integrating judgment in statistical demand forecasting: An approach to confront uncertainty,
Niematallah Elamin and Mototsugu Fukushige, from Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics (2017)
Keywords: Statistical forecasting, Judgmental forecasting, Combining forecasts, Adjusting forecasts, Contextual information, Forecast integration, Forecasting accuracy

The impact of task properties feedback on time series judgmental forecasting tasks,
N. R. Sanders, in Omega (1997)
Keywords: judgmental forecasting time series forecasting feedback information value

Effective Judgmental Forecasting in the Context of Fashion Products (Reprint),
Matthias Seifert, Enno Siemsen, Allègre L. Hadida and Andreas E. Eisingerich, from Springer (2023)
Keywords: Judgmental forecasting, Fashion products, Lens model design, Demand uncertainty, Music industry, New product forecasting

Measuring Forecasting Accuracy: Problems and Recommendations (by the Example of SKU-Level Judgmental Adjustments),
Andrey Davydenko and Robert Fildes, from Springer (2014)
Keywords: Judgmental adjustments, Forecasting support systems, Forecast accuracy, Forecast evaluation, Forecast error measures

Discussion of the joint effect of management's prior forecast accuracy and the form of its financial forecasts on investor judgment,
J Kennedy, in Journal of Accounting Research (1999)
Keywords: Management forecast, Voluntary disclosures, Management forecast accuracy, Investor judgment

The joint effect of management's prior forecast accuracy and the form of its financial forecasts on investor judgment,
de Hirst, L Koonce and J Miller, in Journal of Accounting Research (1999)
Keywords: Management forecast, Voluntary disclosures, Management forecast accuracy, Investor judgment

When does more mean worse? Accuracy of judgmental forecasting is nonlinearly related to length of data series,
Zoe Theocharis and Nigel Harvey, in Omega (2019)
Keywords: Judgmental forecasting; Time series; Heuristics; Pattern extraction;

When providing optimistic and pessimistic scenarios can be detrimental to judgmental demand forecasts and production decisions,
Paul Goodwin, M. Sinan Gönül and Dilek Önkal, in European Journal of Operational Research (2019)
Keywords: Forecasting; Judgment; Extrapolation; Scenarios; Production planning;

Brain imaging and forecasting: Insights from judgmental model selection,
Weiwei Han, Xun Wang, Fotios Petropoulos and Jing Wang, in Omega (2019)
Keywords: Forecasting; Judgment; EEG; Laboratory experiment; Decision making; Cognitive process;

Bars, lines and points: The effect of graph format on judgmental forecasting,
Stian Reimers and Nigel Harvey, in International Journal of Forecasting (2024)
Keywords: Judgmental forecasting; Time series; Format; Graph comprehension; Trend damping;

Forecasting the Resurgence of the U.S. Economy in 2010: An Expert Judgment Approach,
Andrew R. Blair, Gershon Mandelker, Thomas L. Saaty and Rozann Whitaker, in Review of Economics & Finance (2015)
Keywords: Macroeconomic forecasting, Analytic Hierarchy Process, Expert judgment approaches to economic forecasting, Forecasting U.S. economic expansions

Biases in judgmental adjustments of statistical forecasts: The role of individual differences,
Cuneyt Eroglu and Keely L. Croxton, in International Journal of Forecasting (2010)
Keywords: Judgmental forecasting Adjusting forecasts Sales forecasting Motivation Personality Locus of control Cognition

Coordinating judgmental forecasting: Coping with intentional biases,
Clint L.P. Pennings, Jan van Dalen and Laurens Rook, in Omega (2019)
Keywords: Judgmental; Forecasting; Biases; Departmental roles and incentives; Negotiation; Intentional biases; Weighting schemes;

Convex combinations in judgment aggregation,
Johannes G. Jaspersen, in European Journal of Operational Research (2022)
Keywords: Forecasting; Judgment aggregation; Wisdom of the crowd;

Investigating the added value of integrating human judgement into statistical demand forecasting systems,
Philippe Baecke, Shari De Baets and Karlien Vanderheyden, in International Journal of Production Economics (2017)
Keywords: Demand forecasting; Judgmental forecasting; Human judgment;

Effects of trend strength and direction on performance and consistency in judgmental exchange rate forecasting,
Mary E. Thomson, Andrew C. Pollock, M. Sinan Gönül and Dilek Önkal, in International Journal of Forecasting (2013)
Keywords: Judgmental forecasting; Probability forecasting; Trend strength; Trend direction; Consistency; Damping; Exchange rate;

Relative Accuracy of Judgmental and Extrapolative Methods in Forecasting Annual Earnings,
J. Armstrong, from University Library of Munich, Germany (2004)
Keywords: Annual, financial forecasts, Judgment vs. extrapolation, Management vs. analyst Amalgamated forecasts

Evaluating the Conditionality of Judgmental Forecasts,
Travis Berge, Andrew C. Chang and Nitish R. Sinha, from Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2019)
Keywords: conditional forecasts; Forecast efficiency; Macroeconomic forecasting

Testing Hybrid Forecasts for Imports and Exports,
Thomas Cook, Amaze Lusompa and Johannes Matschke, in Economic Review (2024)
Keywords: economic forecasts; models; judgmental forecasts

Evaluating the conditionality of judgmental forecasts,
Travis Berge, Andrew C. Chang and Nitish R. Sinha, in International Journal of Forecasting (2019)
Keywords: Forecast efficiency; Macroeconomic forecast; Conditional forecast; Tealbook forecast; Survey of Professional Forecasters; Blue Chip survey;

Using a rolling training approach to improve judgmental extrapolations elicited from forecasters with technical knowledge,
Fotios Petropoulos, Paul Goodwin and Robert Fildes, in International Journal of Forecasting (2017)
Keywords: Judgmental forecasting; Unaided judgments; Rolling training; Feedback; Time series; Expert knowledge elicitation;

Effective forecasting and judgmental adjustments: an empirical evaluation and strategies for improvement in supply-chain planning,
Robert Fildes, Paul Goodwin, Michael Lawrence and Konstantinos Nikolopoulos, in International Journal of Forecasting (2009)
Keywords: Forecasting accuracy Judgment Heuristics and biases Supply chain Forecasting support systems Practice Combining Forecast adjustment

Benchmarking judgmentally adjusted forecasts,
Philip Hans Franses and Bert de Bruijn, from Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute (2015)
Keywords: forecast decomposition, expert adjustment, total least squares

Predicting in shock: on the impact of negative, extreme, rare, and short lived events on judgmental forecasts,
Ian Durbach and Gilberto Montibeller, in EURO Journal on Decision Processes (2018)
Keywords: Behavioral decision making, Judgmental forecasting, Prediction intervals, Price forecasting, Uncertainty, Extreme events, Rare events

Judgmental aggregation strategies depend on whether the self is involved,
Jack B. Soll and Albert E. Mannes, in International Journal of Forecasting (2011)
Keywords: Advice taking Averaging judgments Combining opinions Information integration Judgmental forecasting

Judgmental aggregation strategies depend on whether the self is involved,
Jack B. Soll and Albert E. Mannes, in International Journal of Forecasting (2011)
Keywords: Advice taking; Averaging judgments; Combining opinions; Information integration; Judgmental forecasting;

A systematic comparison of professional exchange rate forecasts with judgmental forecasts of novices: Are there substantial differences?,
Robert Schmidt and Johannes Leitner, from University of Würzburg, Department of Economics (2004)
Keywords: Foreign exchange market, forecasting, behavioral finance, anchoring heuristics, judgment, expertise, expectation formation

Combining statistical and judgmental forecasts via a web-based tourism demand forecasting system,
Haiyan Song, Bastian Z. Gao and Vera S. Lin, in International Journal of Forecasting (2013)
Keywords: Tourism demand forecasting; Econometric model; Judgmental adjustment; Domain knowledge; Hong Kong;

Man vs. model? The role of judgment in forecasting,
Stephen K. McNees, in New England Economic Review (1990)
Keywords: Forecasting

Extracting the collective wisdom in probabilistic judgments,
Cem Peker, in Theory and Decision (2023)
Keywords: Wisdom of crowds, Judgment aggregation, Forecasting, Shared information

Judgmental Interventions and Behavioral Change,
Fotios Petropoulos and Konstantinos Nikopoulos, from Springer (2023)
Keywords: Forecasting, Judgment, Adjustment, Statistical forecast, Combination, Rational behavior

Improving short-term forecasts,
Nr Sanders and Lp Ritzman, in Omega (1990)
Keywords: combined forecasts forecasting judgment time-series techniques

Calibration Accuracy of a Judgmental Process that Predicts the Commercial Success of New Product Ideas,
Thomas Astebro and D. Koehler, from HAL (2007)
Keywords: intuitive judgment,forecasting,calibration,bootstrapping,case-based judgment

Influence of differentiated roles on group forecasting accuracy,
Dilek Önkal, Michael Lawrence and K. Zeynep SayIm, in International Journal of Forecasting (2011)
Keywords: Judgment Forecast Adjustment Group Role

Influence of differentiated roles on group forecasting accuracy,
Dilek Önkal, Michael Lawrence and K. Zeynep Sayım, in International Journal of Forecasting (2011)
Keywords: Judgment; Forecast; Adjustment; Group; Role;

Forecasting and nowcasting real GDP: Comparing statistical models and subjective forecasts,
W. Jos Jansen, Xiaowen Jin and Jasper de Winter, in International Journal of Forecasting (2016)
Keywords: Forecasting competitions; Factor models; Professional forecasters; Judgment;

Does forecast combination improve Norges Bank inflation forecasts?,
Hilde Bjørnland, Karsten R. Gerdrup, Anne Sofie Jore, Leif Thorsrud and Christie Smith, from Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School (2010)
Keywords: Forecasting, forecast combination, model versus judgment

Antecedents and effects of trust in forecasting advice,
Paul Goodwin, M. Sinan Gönül and Dilek Önkal, in International Journal of Forecasting (2013)
Keywords: Judgmental forecasting; Advice; Stated trust; Adjusting forecasts;

Proof of Principle for a Self-Governing Prediction and Forecasting Reward Algorithm,
Jose Osvaldo Gonzalez-Hernandez, Jonathan Marino, Ted Rogers and Brandon Velasco, in Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation (2024)
Keywords: Expert Judgment, Forecast Scoring, Simulations

Judgmental Adjustments of Algorithmic Hotel Occupancy Forecasts: Does User Override Frequency Impact Accuracy at Different Time Horizons?,
Larissa Koupriouchina, Jean-Pierre van der Rest and Zvi Schwartz, in Tourism Economics (2023)
Keywords: Hotel; revenue management system; forecasting; demand; occupancy; overrides; judgmental adjustment; time; horizon; error; accuracy

Bayesian aggregation of two forecasts in the partial information framework,
Philip Ernst, Robin Pemantle, Ville Satopää and Lyle Ungar, in Statistics & Probability Letters (2016)
Keywords: Expert; Probability forecast; Gaussian process; Judgmental forecasting;

A structural approach to combining external and DSGE model forecasts,
Thorsten Drautzburg, in Economics Letters (2024)
Keywords: Forecasting; Model averaging; DSGE model; Judgmental forecasts;

A Structural Approach to Combining External and DSGE Model Forecasts,
Thorsten Drautzburg, from Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (2023)
Keywords: Forecasting; model averaging; DSGE model; judgmental forecasts

Provider-user differences in perceived usefulness of forecasting formats,
Dilek Önkal and Fergus Bolger, in Omega (2004)
Keywords: Judgment Forecasting Forecast format Forecast provider Forecast user

Monetary policy with judgment: forecast targeting,
Lars Svensson, from European Central Bank (2005)
Keywords: forecasts, inflation targeting, optimal monetary policy

Monetary Policy with Judgment: Forecast Targeting,
Lars Svensson, from University Library of Munich, Germany (2005)
Keywords: Inflation targeting; optimal monetary policy; forecasts

Improving judgmental adjustment of model-based forecasts,
Philip Hans Franses, in Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM) (2013)
Keywords: Statistical model forecasts; Expert forecasts; Forecast accuracy;

De-Biasing the Age-Happiness Bias: Memory Search and Cultural Expectations in Happiness Judgments Across the Lifespan,
Heather Lacey, Todd Kierstead and Diana Morey, in Journal of Happiness Studies (2012)
Keywords: Happiness judgment, Affective forecasting, Aging stereotypes, Ageism,

Scenarios as channels of forecast advice,
Dilek Önkal, Kadire Zeynep Sayım and Mustafa Sinan Gönül, in Technological Forecasting and Social Change (2013)
Keywords: Forecast; Scenario; Group; Judgment; Advice taking;

Structured Analogies for Forecasting,
J. Armstrong, from University Library of Munich, Germany (2005)
Keywords: accuracy, analogies, collaboration, conflict, expert, forecasting, judgment.

Structured analogies for forecasting,
Kesten Green and J. Armstrong, from Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics (2004)
Keywords: accuracy, analogies, collaboration, conflict, expert, forecasting, judgment.

Analysis of judgmental adjustments in the presence of promotions,
Juan R. Trapero, Diego J. Pedregal, R. Fildes and N. Kourentzes, in International Journal of Forecasting (2013)
Keywords: Demand forecasting; Judgmental adjustments; Promotions; Transfer function; Intervention analysis;

Analytical debiasing of corporate cash flow forecasts,
Sebastian M. Blanc and Thomas Setzer, in European Journal of Operational Research (2015)
Keywords: Analytics; Judgmental forecasting; Forecast bias correction; Cash flow forecasting;

Accuracy and bias of experts’ adjusted forecasts,
Vera Shanshan Lin, Paul Goodwin and Haiyan Song, in Annals of Tourism Research (2014)
Keywords: Tourism forecasts; Accuracy; Bias; Judgmental adjustment;

Forecasting adversarial actions using judgment decomposition-recomposition,
Yolanda Gomez, Jesus Rios, David Rios Insua and Jose Vila, in International Journal of Forecasting (2025)
Keywords: Structured expert judgment; Adversarial risk analysis; Discrete choice models; Behavioural experiments; Decision analysis;

Expert forecasting with and without uncertainty quantification and weighting: What do the data say?,
Roger Cooke, Deniz Marti and Thomas Mazzuchi, in International Journal of Forecasting (2021)
Keywords: Calibration; Combining forecasts; Evaluating forecasts; Judgmental forecasting; Panel data; Simulation;

THE EFFECT OF FORECAST REDUNDANCY ON JUDGMENTS OF A CONSENSUS FORECASTS EXPECTED ACCURACY,
La Maines, in Journal of Accounting Research (1990)
Keywords: Analyst forecasts, Analyst forecast consensus, Analyst forecast accuracy, Forecast redundancy

THE EFFECT OF FORECAST REDUNDANCY ON JUDGMENTS OF A CONSENSUS FORECASTS EXPECTED ACCURACY - DISCUSSION,
Mg Lipe, in Journal of Accounting Research (1990)
Keywords: Analyst forecasts, Analyst forecast consensus, Analyst forecast accuracy, Forecast redundancy

Improving geopolitical forecasts with 100 brains and one computer,
Hilla Shinitzky, Yhonatan Shemesh, David Leiser and Michael Gilead, in International Journal of Forecasting (2024)
Keywords: Forecasting; Judgment; Machine learning; Language; Aggregation;

Improving Forecasting Performance by Exploiting Expert Knowledge: Evidence from Guangzhou Port,
Anqiang Huang, Han Qiao, Shouyang Wang and John Liu, in International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM) (2016)
Keywords: Container throughput forecast, expert knowledge, subjective judgment

Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared,
Kesten Green, J. Armstrong and Andreas Graefe, from University Library of Munich, Germany (2007)
Keywords: accuracy; forecasting methods; groups; judgment; meetings; structure

Depression and forecast accuracy: Evidence from the 2010 FIFA World Cup,
Kriti Jain, J. Neil Bearden and Allan Filipowicz, in International Journal of Forecasting (2013)
Keywords: Judgmental forecasting; Prediction; Probability; Depressive realism; Depression;

Nonlinear identification of judgmental forecasts effects at SKU level,
Juan R. Trapero, Robert Fildes and Andrey Davydenko, in Journal of Forecasting (2011)
Keywords: forecast adjustment , supply chain , nonlinear system identification ,

Forecasting the value effect of seasoned equity offering announcements,
Konstantinos Bozos and Konstantinos Nikolopoulos, in European Journal of Operational Research (2011)
Keywords: Financial forecasting Forecasting competitions Econometric models Artificial neural networks Judgment

Relative performance of methods for forecasting special events,
Konstantinos Nikolopoulos, Akrivi Litsa, Fotios Petropoulos, Vasileios Bougioukos and Marwan Khammash, in Journal of Business Research (2015)
Keywords: Judgmental forecasting; Structured analogies; Delphi; Interaction groups; Governmental forecasting;

A Simulation-Based Approach to Understanding the Wisdom of Crowds Phenomenon in Aggregating Expert Judgment,
Patrick Afflerbach, Christopher Dun, Henner Gimpel, Dominik Parak and Johannes Seyfried, in Business & Information Systems Engineering: The International Journal of WIRTSCHAFTSINFORMATIK (2021)
Keywords: Simulation, Forecasting, Expert judgment, Expert aggregation, Wisdom of crowds

Forecasting Sales,
Philip Hans Franses, from Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute (2009)
Keywords: SKU-level sales, diffusion, durable goods, human judgment, sales forecasting

Visitor arrivals forecasts amid COVID-19: A perspective from the Europe team,
Anyu Liu, Laura Vici, Vicente Ramos, Sauveur Giannoni and Adam Blake, in Annals of Tourism Research (2021)
Keywords: COVID-19; Tourism demand forecasting; Composite index; Judgmental forecast;

Combining Probability Forecasts: 60% and 60% Is 60%, but Likely and Likely Is Very Likely,
Robert Mislavsky and Celia Gaertig, in Management Science (2022)
Keywords: uncertainty, forecasting, verbal probabilities, combining judgments, combining forecasts, predictions

On the relative importance of linear model and human judge(s) in combined forecasting,
Matthias Seifert and Allègre L. Hadida, in Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes (2013)
Keywords: Judgmental forecasting; Combined forecasts; Bootstrapping models; Music industry;

Deciding about the uncertain: The use of forecasts as an aid to decision-making,
Erik Lindberg and Uno Zackrisson, in Scandinavian Journal of Management (1991)
Keywords: Management decision-making judgmental forecasting formal forecasting uncertainty

Use of contextual and model-based information in adjusting promotional forecasts,
Anna Sroginis, Robert Fildes and Nikolaos Kourentzes, in European Journal of Operational Research (2023)
Keywords: Forecasting; Judgmental forecasting; Behavioural OR; Decision support systems; Promotions;

Against Your Better Judgment? How Organizations Can Improve Their Use of Management Judgment in Forecasting,
Robert Fildes and Paul Goodwin, in Interfaces (2007)
Keywords: applications, forecasting