Beliefs about demographic change: How well are individuals informed?

Elisa Stumpf (), Jana Schuetz (), Silke Uebelmesser, Ronja Baginski () and Carmela Aprea ()
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Elisa Stumpf: Friedrich Schiller University Jena
Jana Schuetz: Friedrich Schiller University Jena
Ronja Baginski: University of Mannheim, MIFE
Carmela Aprea: University of Mannheim, MIFE

No 2024-003, Jena Economics Research Papers from Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena

Abstract: Demographic change is one of Germany's most pressing social and economic challenges. Using data from a representative telephone survey, we analyze how well informed respondents are about the magnitude of demographic change and what factors influence the accuracy of their beliefs. We find that respondents tend to overestimate the old-age dependency ratio when considering the current and long-term demographic situation separately. However, their beliefs regarding the change of the old-age dependency ratios over the considered period are not far from the projected change. A better understanding of the German statutory pension insurance plays an important role for more accurate beliefs.

Keywords: beliefs; belief updating; demographic change; old-age dependency ratio; information provision (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D83 H55 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-01-31
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