Exchange Rate Dynamics Under Alternative Optimal Interest Rate Rules

No 362011, Working Papers from Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research

Abstract: We explore the role of interest rate policy in the exchange rate determination process. Specifically, we derive exchange rate equations from interest rate rules that are theoretically optimal under a few alternative settings. The exchange rate equation depends on its underlying interest rule and its performance could vary across evaluation criteria and sample periods. The exchange rate equation implied by the interest rate rule that allows for interest rate and inflation inertia under commitment offers some encouraging results - exchange rate changes "calibrated" from the equation have a positive and significant correlation with actual data, and offer good direction of change prediction. Our exercise also demonstrates the role of the foreign exchange risk premium in determining exchange rates and the difficulty of explaining exchange rate variability using only policy based fundamentals.

Keywords: Taylor Rule; Exchange Rate Determination; Mean Squared Prediction Error; Direction of Change; Foreign Exchange Risk Premium (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C52 E52 F31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 53 pages
Date: 2011-12
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Exchange Rate Dynamics under Alternative Optimal Interest Rate Rules (2011)
Working Paper: Exchange Rate Dynamics under Alternative Optimal Interest Rate Rules (2011)
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