Details about Dominic Rohner

Access statistics for papers by Dominic Rohner.

Last updated 2024-12-06. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pro229

Working Papers

2024

1. Feeding the Tigers: Remittances and Conflict in Sri Lanka
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc
2. Hungry Professors? Decision Biases Are Less Widespread than Previously Thought
   Papers, arXiv.org
3. The Democracy Dividend: How Early Exposure to Democracy Shapes Health Outcomes
   CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers
4. The Democracy Dividend: ˗How Early Exposure to Democracy Shapes Health Outcomes˗
   CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo
5. The Economics of Nation-Building: Methodological Toolkit and Policy Lessons
   CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers
   Also in CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2024)

2023

6. Cash and Conflict – Large-Scale Experimental Evidence from Niger
   HiCN Working Papers, Households in Conflict Network
   Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2023)
   CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2023)
   See also Journal Article Cash and Conflict: Large-Scale Experimental Evidence from Niger, American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association (2024) View citations (1) (2024)
7. Exploiting Growth Opportunities:The Role of Internal Labor Markets
   Working Papers, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University View citations (1)
8. Nation Building: Big Lessons from Successes and Failures
   PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint), HAL
   Also in Post-Print, HAL (2023)
9. Natural resources and conflict: The crucial role of power mismatch and geographic asymmetries
   Working Papers, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University
10. Peace not Pollution: How Going Green Can Tackle Climate Change and Toxic Politics
    Post-Print, HAL
11. Price and Prejudice: Housing Rents Reveal Racial Animus
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers
    Also in CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2023) View citations (1)

2022

12. Conflict, Civil Wars and Human Development
    Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie
13. Hidden hostility: donor attention and political violence
    WIDER Working Paper Series, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER) View citations (1)
14. Medication Against Conflict
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers
    Also in HiCN Working Papers, Households in Conflict Network (2022) View citations (2)
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2022) View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article Medication against conflict, Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier (2024) (2024)
15. Power in the Pipeline
    Papers, arXiv.org

2020

16. A Dynamic Theory of Secessionist vs Centrist Conflict
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (2)
17. Ballot or Bullet: The Impact of UK's Representation of the People Act on Peace and Prosperity
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article Ballot or Bullet: The Impact of the UK’s Representation of the People Act on Peace and Prosperity, The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society (2023) (2023)
18. Heat and Hate, Climate Security and Farmer-Herder Conflicts in Africa
    Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC) Working Papers, Empirical Studies of Conflict Project View citations (19)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2020) View citations (19)
19. The Elusive Peace Dividend of Development Policy: From War Traps to Macro-Complementarities
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (6)
    See also Journal Article The Elusive Peace Dividend of Development Policy: From War Traps to Macro Complementarities, Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews (2021) View citations (18) (2021)
20. Threat of Taxation, Stagnation and Social Unrest: Evidence from 19th Century Sicily
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers
    See also Journal Article Threat of taxation, stagnation and social unrest: Evidence from 19th century sicily, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier (2022) View citations (1) (2022)

2019

21. Education and Conflict Evidence from a Policy Experiment in Indonesia
    HiCN Working Papers, Households in Conflict Network View citations (16)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2019) View citations (19)
22. Ethnic Conflicts and the Informational Dividend of Democracy
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article Ethnic Conflict and the Informational Dividend of Democracy, Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association (2024) View citations (1) (2024)
23. The Violent Legacy of Victimization: Post-conflict Evidence on Asylum Seekers, Crimes and Public Policy in Switzerland
    Post-Print, HAL View citations (39)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2016) View citations (22)

2018

24. A Dynamic Theory of Secession
    HiCN Working Papers, Households in Conflict Network View citations (2)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2018) View citations (2)
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2018) View citations (2)
25. Success Factors for Peace Treaties: A Review of Theory and Evidence
    Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie View citations (2)
26. The Survival and Demise of the State: A Dynamic Theory of Secession
    Working Papers, Barcelona School of Economics View citations (1)

2017

27. Can Power-sharing Foster Peace? Evidence From Northern Ireland
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers
    See also Journal Article Can power-sharing foster peace? Evidence from Northern Ireland, Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po (2018) View citations (8) (2018)
28. Stay, Split or Strike: Theory and Evidence on Secessionist vs Centrist Conflict
    Working Papers, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University View citations (1)
29. The Peace Dividend of Distance: Violence as Interaction Across Space
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (6)
30. This Mine is Mine! How Minerals Fuel Conflicts in Africa
    Post-Print, HAL View citations (275)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2014) View citations (18)
    OxCarre Working Papers, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford (2014) View citations (20)
    CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2015) View citations (33)
    See also Journal Article This Mine Is Mine! How Minerals Fuel Conflicts in Africa, American Economic Review, American Economic Association (2017) View citations (327) (2017)

2015

31. Networks in Conflict: Theory and Evidence from the Great War of Africa
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (13)
    Also in UBSCENTER - Working Papers, UBS International Center of Economics in Society - Department of Economics - University of Zurich (2015)
    Working Papers, Economic Growth Center, Yale University (1220) View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article Networks in Conflict: Theory and Evidence From the Great War of Africa, Econometrica, Econometric Society (2017) View citations (122) (2017)
32. The geography of interstate resource wars
    LSE Research Online Documents on Economics, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library View citations (63)
    Also in HiCN Working Papers, Households in Conflict Network (2013) View citations (11)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2013) View citations (11)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2013) View citations (14)
    CEP Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE (2013) View citations (11)
    Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie (2013) View citations (11)
    LSE Research Online Documents on Economics, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library (2013) View citations (11)
    See also Journal Article The Geography of Interstate Resource Wars, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College (2015) View citations (79) (2015)

2014

33. Resource Concentration and Civil Wars
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (11)
    Also in Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie (2013) View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article Resource concentration and civil wars, Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier (2015) View citations (64) (2015)

2013

34. Knowledge is power - A theory of information, income, and welfare spending
    Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie
    Also in CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2011) View citations (1)
    Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge (2011) View citations (1)
    ECON - Working Papers, Department of Economics - University of Zurich (2011) View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article Knowledge is Power: A Theory of Information, Income and Welfare Spending, Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science (2017) View citations (1) (2017)
35. Tectonic Boundaries and Strongholds: The Religious Geography of Violence in Northern Ireland
    Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie View citations (1)

2012

36. Seeds of Distrust: Conflict in Uganda
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (10)
    Also in ECON - Working Papers, Department of Economics - University of Zurich (2011) View citations (8)
    HiCN Working Papers, Households in Conflict Network (2012) View citations (13)
    OxCarre Working Papers, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford (2011) View citations (11)
    See also Journal Article Seeds of distrust: conflict in Uganda, Journal of Economic Growth, Springer (2013) View citations (160) (2013)

2011

37. War Signals: A Theory of Trade, Trust and Conflict
    HiCN Working Papers, Households in Conflict Network View citations (10)
    Also in Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge (2011) View citations (8)
    ECON - Working Papers, Department of Economics - University of Zurich (2011) View citations (9)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2011) View citations (8)
    OxCarre Working Papers, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford (2010) View citations (8)
    2011 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2011) View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article War Signals: A Theory of Trade, Trust, and Conflict, The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd (2013) View citations (93) (2013)

2010

38. Biased Experts, Costly Lies, and Binary Decisions
    Working Papers, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee View citations (2)
    Also in IEW - Working Papers, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich (2010) View citations (2)
39. From rags to rifles: deprivation, conflict and the welfare state
    IEW - Working Papers, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich
40. Natural Resource Distribution and Multiple Forms of Civil War
    HiCN Working Papers, Households in Conflict Network View citations (16)
    Also in IEW - Working Papers, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich (2010) View citations (22)
    OxCarre Working Papers, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford (2010) View citations (18)
    Economics Working Papers, European University Institute (2010) View citations (16)
41. Prosperous pacifists: The effects of development on initiators and targets of territorial conflict
    IEW - Working Papers, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich
42. Strategic Mass Killings
    HiCN Working Papers, Households in Conflict Network View citations (8)
    Also in Working Papers, Barcelona School of Economics (2010) View citations (8)
    UFAE and IAE Working Papers, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC) (2010) View citations (8)
    OxCarre Working Papers, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford (2010) View citations (8)
    Economics Working Papers, European University Institute (2010) View citations (13)
    IEW - Working Papers, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich (2010) View citations (8)
    See also Journal Article Strategic Mass Killings, Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press (2015) View citations (41) (2015)
43. The political economy of imperialism, decolonization, and development
    IEW - Working Papers, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article The Political Economy of Imperialism, Decolonization and Development, British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press (2011) View citations (26) (2011)
44. To conquer or compel: war, peace, and economic development
    IEW - Working Papers, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich
45. War and Natural Resource Exploitation
    OxCarre Working Papers, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford View citations (5)
    Also in CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo (2010) View citations (5)
    IEW - Working Papers, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich (2010) View citations (7)
    See also Journal Article War and natural resource exploitation, European Economic Review, Elsevier (2012) View citations (42) (2012)

2009

46. The Effects of Conflict on the Structure of the Economy
    Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Frankfurt a.M. 2009, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics View citations (4)

2008

47. Reputation, Group Structure and Social Tensions
    HiCN Working Papers, Households in Conflict Network View citations (6)
    See also Journal Article Reputation, group structure and social tensions, Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier (2011) View citations (14) (2011)

2007

48. False Alarm? Terror Alerts and Reelection
    Department of Economics - Working Papers Series, The University of Melbourne
49. From Rags to Rifles: The Economics of Deprivation, Conflict and Welfare State
    Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge View citations (1)
50. Inefficient Policies and Incumbency Advantage
    Department of Economics - Working Papers Series, The University of Melbourne View citations (4)
    Also in Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge (2007) View citations (14)
    See also Journal Article Inefficient policies and incumbency advantage, Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier (2010) View citations (19) (2010)

2006

51. Beyond Greed and Grievance: Feasibility and Civil War
    CSAE Working Paper Series, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford View citations (16)
    See also Journal Article Beyond greed and grievance: feasibility and civil war, Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press (2009) View citations (239) (2009)
52. Blood and Ink! The Common-Interest-Game Between Terrorists and the Media
    CREMA Working Paper Series, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA)
    Also in IEW - Working Papers, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich (2006) View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article Blood and ink! The common-interest-game between terrorists and the media, Public Choice, Springer (2007) View citations (40) (2007)
53. Ich Bin Auch ein Lemming: Herding and Consumption Capital in Arts and Culture
    IEW - Working Papers, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich View citations (1)
    Also in CREMA Working Paper Series, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA) (2006) View citations (1)
54. Information, Reputation and Ethnic Conflict
    Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge

2005

55. Protecting Cultural Monuments Against Terrorism
    CREMA Working Paper Series, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA)
    Also in IEW - Working Papers, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich (2005) View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article PROTECTING CULTURAL MONUMENTS AGAINST TERRORISM, Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals (2007) View citations (11) (2007)

Journal Articles

2024

1. Cash and Conflict: Large-Scale Experimental Evidence from Niger
   American Economic Review: Insights, 2024, 6, (1), 137-53 View citations (1)
   See also Working Paper Cash and Conflict – Large-Scale Experimental Evidence from Niger, HiCN Working Papers (2023) (2023)
2. Corrigendum to Medication against conflict [Journal of Development Economics (2024) Volume 170, September 2024, 103306]
   Journal of Development Economics, 2024, 171, (C)
3. Ethnic Conflict and the Informational Dividend of Democracy
   Journal of the European Economic Association, 2024, 22, (1), 73-116 View citations (1)
   See also Working Paper Ethnic Conflicts and the Informational Dividend of Democracy, CEPR Discussion Papers (2019) View citations (3) (2019)
4. Mediation, Military, and Money: The Promises and Pitfalls of Outside Interventions to End Armed Conflicts
   Journal of Economic Literature, 2024, 62, (1), 155-95 View citations (2)
5. Medication against conflict
   Journal of Development Economics, 2024, 170, (C)
   See also Working Paper Medication Against Conflict, CEPR Discussion Papers (2022) (2022)

2023

6. Ballot or Bullet: The Impact of the UK’s Representation of the People Act on Peace and Prosperity
   The Economic Journal, 2023, 133, (652), 1510-1536
   See also Working Paper Ballot or Bullet: The Impact of UK's Representation of the People Act on Peace and Prosperity, CEPR Discussion Papers (2020) View citations (1) (2020)

2022

7. Ethnic Violence Across Space
   The Economic Journal, 2022, 132, (642), 709-740 View citations (9)
8. Threat of taxation, stagnation and social unrest: Evidence from 19th century sicily
   Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 2022, 202, (C), 361-371 View citations (1)
   See also Working Paper Threat of Taxation, Stagnation and Social Unrest: Evidence from 19th Century Sicily, CEPR Discussion Papers (2020) (2020)

2021

9. Globalization mitigates the risk of conflict caused by strategic territory
   Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2021, 118, (39), e2105624118 View citations (5)
10. The Elusive Peace Dividend of Development Policy: From War Traps to Macro Complementarities
    Annual Review of Economics, 2021, 13, (1), 111-131 View citations (18)
    See also Working Paper The Elusive Peace Dividend of Development Policy: From War Traps to Macro-Complementarities, CEPR Discussion Papers (2020) View citations (6) (2020)

2020

11. COVID-19 and Conflict: Major Risks and Policy Responses
    Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, 2020, 26, (3), 06 View citations (4)
12. Ethnolinguistic diversity and urban agglomeration
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2020, 117, (28), 16250-16257 View citations (3)

2019

13. The Violent Legacy of Conflict: Evidence on Asylum Seekers, Crime, and Public Policy in Switzerland
    American Economic Review, 2019, 109, (12), 4378-4425 View citations (53)

2018

14. Can power-sharing foster peace? Evidence from Northern Ireland
    Economic Policy, 2018, 33, (95), 447-484 View citations (8)
    See also Working Paper Can Power-sharing Foster Peace? Evidence From Northern Ireland, CEPR Discussion Papers (2017) (2017)
15. Économie des conflits: revue de la littérature et guide à l’intention des acteurs de l’aide extérieure
    Revue d’économie du développement, 2018, 26, (4), 5-25

2017

16. Knowledge is Power: A Theory of Information, Income and Welfare Spending
    Economica, 2017, 84, (336), 611-646 View citations (1)
    See also Working Paper Knowledge is power - A theory of information, income, and welfare spending, Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie (2013) (2013)
17. Networks in Conflict: Theory and Evidence From the Great War of Africa
    Econometrica, 2017, 85, 1093-1132 View citations (122)
    See also Working Paper Networks in Conflict: Theory and Evidence from the Great War of Africa, CEPR Discussion Papers (2015) View citations (13) (2015)
18. This Mine Is Mine! How Minerals Fuel Conflicts in Africa
    American Economic Review, 2017, 107, (6), 1564-1610 View citations (327)
    See also Working Paper This Mine is Mine! How Minerals Fuel Conflicts in Africa, Post-Print (2017) View citations (275) (2017)

2015

19. Resource concentration and civil wars
    Journal of Development Economics, 2015, 117, (C), 32-47 View citations (64)
    See also Working Paper Resource Concentration and Civil Wars, NBER Working Papers (2014) View citations (11) (2014)
20. Strategic Mass Killings
    Journal of Political Economy, 2015, 123, (5), 1087 - 1132 View citations (41)
    See also Working Paper Strategic Mass Killings, HiCN Working Papers (2010) View citations (8) (2010)
21. The Geography of Interstate Resource Wars
    The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2015, 130, (1), 267-315 View citations (79)
    See also Working Paper The geography of interstate resource wars, LSE Research Online Documents on Economics (2015) View citations (63) (2015)

2014

22. Persuasion, binary choice, and the costs of dishonesty
    Economics Letters, 2014, 124, (2), 195-198 View citations (2)

2013

23. Seeds of distrust: conflict in Uganda
    Journal of Economic Growth, 2013, 18, (3), 217-252 View citations (160)
    See also Working Paper Seeds of Distrust: Conflict in Uganda, CEPR Discussion Papers (2012) View citations (10) (2012)
24. War Signals: A Theory of Trade, Trust, and Conflict
    The Review of Economic Studies, 2013, 80, (3), 1114-1147 View citations (93)
    See also Working Paper War Signals: A Theory of Trade, Trust and Conflict, HiCN Working Papers (2011) View citations (10) (2011)

2012

25. Electoral terms and terrorism
    Public Choice, 2012, 150, (1), 181-193 View citations (3)
26. War and natural resource exploitation
    European Economic Review, 2012, 56, (8), 1714-1729 View citations (42)
    See also Working Paper War and Natural Resource Exploitation, OxCarre Working Papers (2010) View citations (5) (2010)

2011

27. Reputation, group structure and social tensions
    Journal of Development Economics, 2011, 96, (2), 188-199 View citations (14)
    See also Working Paper Reputation, Group Structure and Social Tensions, HiCN Working Papers (2008) View citations (6) (2008)
28. The Political Economy of Imperialism, Decolonization and Development
    British Journal of Political Science, 2011, 41, (3), 525-556 View citations (26)
    See also Working Paper The political economy of imperialism, decolonization, and development, IEW - Working Papers (2010) View citations (1) (2010)

2010

29. Inefficient policies and incumbency advantage
    Journal of Public Economics, 2010, 94, (9-10), 761-767 View citations (19)
    See also Working Paper Inefficient Policies and Incumbency Advantage, Department of Economics - Working Papers Series (2007) View citations (4) (2007)

2009

30. Beyond greed and grievance: feasibility and civil war
    Oxford Economic Papers, 2009, 61, (1), 1-27 View citations (239)
    See also Working Paper Beyond Greed and Grievance: Feasibility and Civil War, CSAE Working Paper Series (2006) View citations (16) (2006)
31. PROTECTING CULTURAL MONUMENTS AGAINST TERRORISM: A REPLY
    Defence and Peace Economics, 2009, 20, (6), 513-514

2008

32. Democracy, Development, and Conflict
    Journal of the European Economic Association, 2008, 6, (2-3), 531-540 View citations (103)

2007

33. Blood and ink! The common-interest-game between terrorists and the media
    Public Choice, 2007, 133, (1), 129-145 View citations (40)
    See also Working Paper Blood and Ink! The Common-Interest-Game Between Terrorists and the Media, CREMA Working Paper Series (2006) (2006)
34. PROTECTING CULTURAL MONUMENTS AGAINST TERRORISM
    Defence and Peace Economics, 2007, 18, (3), 245-252 View citations (11)
    See also Working Paper Protecting Cultural Monuments Against Terrorism, CREMA Working Paper Series (2005) (2005)

2006

35. Beach holiday in Bali or East Timor? Why conflict can lead to under- and overexploitation of natural resources
    Economics Letters, 2006, 92, (1), 113-117 View citations (17)

Books

2024

1. The Peace Formula
   Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press

2017

2. From Mines and Wells to Well-Built Minds
   World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group

Chapters

2014

1. Explaining and predicting future environmental scarcities and conflicts
   Chapter 7 in Predicting the Future in Science, Economics, and Politics, 2014, pp 144-190