default search action
Philip Tetlock
Person information
Refine list
refinements active!
zoomed in on ?? of ?? records
view refined list in
export refined list as
Journal Articles
- 2021
- [j5]Ville Satopää
, Marat Salikhov
Bias, Information, Noise: The BIN Model of Forecasting. Manag. Sci. 67(12): 7599-7618 (2021) - 2017
- [j4]Pavel Atanasov, Phillip Rescober, Eric Stone, Samuel A. Swift, Emile Servan-Schreiber, Philip Tetlock, Lyle H. Ungar, Barbara A. Mellers:
Distilling the Wisdom of Crowds: Prediction Markets vs. Prediction Polls. Manag. Sci. 63(3): 691-706 (2017) - [j3]Don A. Moore, Samuel A. Swift, Angela Minster, Barbara A. Mellers, Lyle H. Ungar, Philip Tetlock, Heather H. J. Yang, Elizabeth R. Tenney
Confidence Calibration in a Multiyear Geopolitical Forecasting Competition. Manag. Sci. 63(11): 3552-3565 (2017) - 2016
- [j2]Eva Chen, David V. Budescu, Shrinidhi K. Lakshmikanth, Barbara A. Mellers, Philip E. Tetlock:
Validating the Contribution-Weighted Model: Robustness and Cost-Benefit Analyses. Decis. Anal. 13(2): 128-152 (2016) - 2014
- [j1]Jonathan Baron, Barbara A. Mellers, Philip E. Tetlock, Eric Stone, Lyle H. Ungar:
Two Reasons to Make Aggregated Probability Forecasts More Extreme. Decis. Anal. 11(2): 133-145 (2014)
Conference and Workshop Papers
- 2024
- [c6]Pavel Atanasov
Full Accuracy Scoring Accelerates the Discovery of Skilled Forecasters. EC 2024: 1133 - 2022
- [c5]Pavel Atanasov, Jens Witkowski, Barbara A. Mellers, Philip Tetlock:
Crowd Prediction Systems: Markets, Polls, and Elite Forecasters. EC 2022: 1013-1014 - 2020
- [c4]Pavel Atanasov, Jens Witkowski, Lyle H. Ungar, Barbara A. Mellers, Philip Tetlock:
Small Steps to Accuracy: Incremental Belief Updaters Are Better Forecasters. EC 2020: 873-874 - 2017
- [c3]H. Andrew Schwartz, Masoud Rouhizadeh, Michael Bishop, Philip Tetlock, Barbara A. Mellers, Lyle H. Ungar:
Assessing Objective Recommendation Quality through Political Forecasting. EMNLP 2017: 2348-2357 - 2013
- [c2]Pavel Atanasov, Phillip Rescober, Eric Stone, Emile Servan-Schreiber, Barbara A. Mellers, Philip Tetlock, Lyle H. Ungar:
The Marketcast Method for Aggregating Prediction Market Forecasts. SBP 2013: 28-37 - 2012
- [c1]Lyle H. Ungar, Barbara A. Mellers, Ville Satopää, Philip Tetlock, Jon Baron:
The Good Judgment Project: A Large Scale Test of Different Methods of Combining Expert Predictions. AAAI Fall Symposium: Machine Aggregation of Human Judgment 2012
Informal and Other Publications
- 2024
- [i3]Philipp Schoenegger, Peter S. Park, Ezra Karger, Philip E. Tetlock:
AI-Augmented Predictions: LLM Assistants Improve Human Forecasting Accuracy. CoRR abs/2402.07862 (2024) - [i2]Philipp Schoenegger, Indre Tuminauskaite, Peter S. Park, Philip E. Tetlock:
Wisdom of the Silicon Crowd: LLM Ensemble Prediction Capabilities Rival Human Crowd Accuracy. CoRR abs/2402.19379 (2024) - [i1]Ezra Karger, Houtan Bastani, Chen Yueh-Han, Zachary Jacobs, Danny Halawi, Fred Zhang, Philip E. Tetlock:
ForecastBench: A Dynamic Benchmark of AI Forecasting Capabilities. CoRR abs/2409.19839 (2024)
Coauthor Index
manage site settings
To protect your privacy, all features that rely on external API calls from your browser are turned off by default. You need to opt-in for them to become active. All settings here will be stored as cookies with your web browser. For more information see our F.A.Q.
Unpaywalled article links
Add open access links from to the list of external document links (if available).
Privacy notice: By enabling the option above, your browser will contact the API of unpaywall.org to load hyperlinks to open access articles. Although we do not have any reason to believe that your call will be tracked, we do not have any control over how the remote server uses your data. So please proceed with care and consider checking the Unpaywall privacy policy.
Archived links via Wayback Machine
For web page which are no longer available, try to retrieve content from the of the Internet Archive (if available).
Privacy notice: By enabling the option above, your browser will contact the API of archive.org to check for archived content of web pages that are no longer available. Although we do not have any reason to believe that your call will be tracked, we do not have any control over how the remote server uses your data. So please proceed with care and consider checking the Internet Archive privacy policy.
Reference lists
Add a list of references from ,
, and
to record detail pages.
load references from crossref.org and opencitations.net
Privacy notice: By enabling the option above, your browser will contact the APIs of crossref.org, opencitations.net, and semanticscholar.org to load article reference information. Although we do not have any reason to believe that your call will be tracked, we do not have any control over how the remote server uses your data. So please proceed with care and consider checking the Crossref privacy policy and the OpenCitations privacy policy, as well as the AI2 Privacy Policy covering Semantic Scholar.
Citation data
Add a list of citing articles from and
to record detail pages.
load citations from opencitations.net
Privacy notice: By enabling the option above, your browser will contact the API of opencitations.net and semanticscholar.org to load citation information. Although we do not have any reason to believe that your call will be tracked, we do not have any control over how the remote server uses your data. So please proceed with care and consider checking the OpenCitations privacy policy as well as the AI2 Privacy Policy covering Semantic Scholar.
OpenAlex data
Load additional information about publications from .
Privacy notice: By enabling the option above, your browser will contact the API of openalex.org to load additional information. Although we do not have any reason to believe that your call will be tracked, we do not have any control over how the remote server uses your data. So please proceed with care and consider checking the information given by OpenAlex.
last updated on 2024-12-23 20:28 CET by the dblp team
all metadata released as open data under CC0 1.0 license
see also: Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Imprint
dblp was originally created in 1993 at:
since 2018, dblp has been operated and maintained by:
the dblp computer science bibliography is funded and supported by: