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Philip Tetlock
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2020 – today
- 2024
- [c6]Pavel Atanasov
, Ezra Karger
Full Accuracy Scoring Accelerates the Discovery of Skilled Forecasters. EC 2024: 1133 - [i3]Philipp Schoenegger, Peter S. Park, Ezra Karger, Philip E. Tetlock:
AI-Augmented Predictions: LLM Assistants Improve Human Forecasting Accuracy. CoRR abs/2402.07862 (2024) - [i2]Philipp Schoenegger, Indre Tuminauskaite, Peter S. Park, Philip E. Tetlock:
Wisdom of the Silicon Crowd: LLM Ensemble Prediction Capabilities Rival Human Crowd Accuracy. CoRR abs/2402.19379 (2024) - [i1]Ezra Karger, Houtan Bastani, Chen Yueh-Han, Zachary Jacobs, Danny Halawi, Fred Zhang, Philip E. Tetlock:
ForecastBench: A Dynamic Benchmark of AI Forecasting Capabilities. CoRR abs/2409.19839 (2024) - 2022
- [c5]Pavel Atanasov, Jens Witkowski, Barbara A. Mellers, Philip Tetlock:
Crowd Prediction Systems: Markets, Polls, and Elite Forecasters. EC 2022: 1013-1014 - 2021
- [j5]Ville Satopää
Bias, Information, Noise: The BIN Model of Forecasting. Manag. Sci. 67(12): 7599-7618 (2021) - 2020
- [c4]Pavel Atanasov, Jens Witkowski, Lyle H. Ungar, Barbara A. Mellers, Philip Tetlock:
Small Steps to Accuracy: Incremental Belief Updaters Are Better Forecasters. EC 2020: 873-874
2010 – 2019
- 2017
- [j4]Pavel Atanasov, Phillip Rescober, Eric Stone, Samuel A. Swift, Emile Servan-Schreiber, Philip Tetlock, Lyle H. Ungar, Barbara A. Mellers:
Distilling the Wisdom of Crowds: Prediction Markets vs. Prediction Polls. Manag. Sci. 63(3): 691-706 (2017) - [j3]Don A. Moore, Samuel A. Swift, Angela Minster, Barbara A. Mellers, Lyle H. Ungar, Philip Tetlock, Heather H. J. Yang, Elizabeth R. Tenney
Confidence Calibration in a Multiyear Geopolitical Forecasting Competition. Manag. Sci. 63(11): 3552-3565 (2017) - [c3]H. Andrew Schwartz, Masoud Rouhizadeh, Michael Bishop, Philip Tetlock, Barbara A. Mellers, Lyle H. Ungar:
Assessing Objective Recommendation Quality through Political Forecasting. EMNLP 2017: 2348-2357 - 2016
- [j2]Eva Chen, David V. Budescu, Shrinidhi K. Lakshmikanth, Barbara A. Mellers, Philip E. Tetlock:
Validating the Contribution-Weighted Model: Robustness and Cost-Benefit Analyses. Decis. Anal. 13(2): 128-152 (2016) - 2014
- [j1]Jonathan Baron, Barbara A. Mellers, Philip E. Tetlock, Eric Stone, Lyle H. Ungar:
Two Reasons to Make Aggregated Probability Forecasts More Extreme. Decis. Anal. 11(2): 133-145 (2014) - 2013
- [c2]Pavel Atanasov, Phillip Rescober, Eric Stone, Emile Servan-Schreiber, Barbara A. Mellers, Philip Tetlock, Lyle H. Ungar:
The Marketcast Method for Aggregating Prediction Market Forecasts. SBP 2013: 28-37 - 2012
- [c1]Lyle H. Ungar, Barbara A. Mellers, Ville Satopää, Philip Tetlock, Jon Baron:
The Good Judgment Project: A Large Scale Test of Different Methods of Combining Expert Predictions. AAAI Fall Symposium: Machine Aggregation of Human Judgment 2012
Coauthor Index
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