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The Housing Market Bust and Farmland Values: Identifying the Changing Influence of Proximity to Urban Centers. (2013). Zhang, Wendong ; Nickerson, Cynthia .
In: 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C..
RePEc:ags:aaea13:149870.

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  1. The Impacts of Interest Rate Changes on US Midwest Farmland Values. (2021). Zhang, Wendong ; Hart, Chad ; Basha, Albulena.
    In: Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications.
    RePEc:ias:cpaper:21-wp614.

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  2. Does Municipal Development Policy Affect Property Values: A Quasi-Experimental Hedonic Model Approach in Alberta, Canada. (2018). Qiu, Feng ; Swallow, B ; Cao, Y.
    In: 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia.
    RePEc:ags:iaae18:277044.

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  3. Role of Ethanol Plants in Dakotas Land Use Change: Incorporating Flexible Trends in the Difference-in-Difference Framework with Remotely-Sensed Data. (2016). Hennessy, David ; Arora, Gaurav ; Wolter, Peter T ; Feng, Hongli.
    In: Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications.
    RePEc:ias:cpaper:16-wp564.

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  4. Role of Ethanol Plants in Dakotas’ Land Use Change: Analysis Using Remotely Sensed Data. (2015). Hennessy, David ; Feng, Hongli ; Arora, Gaurav ; Wolter, Peter T.
    In: 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California.
    RePEc:ags:aaea15:206565.

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  5. Role of Ethanol Plants in Dakotas’ Land Use Change: Analysis Using Remotely Sensed Data. (2015). Hennessy, David ; Feng, Hongli ; Arora, Gaurav ; Wolter, Peter T.
    In: 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California.
    RePEc:ags:aaea15:205877.

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  1. • The value of being within close proximity to urban centers on surrounding farmland values declined by an estimated 80 percent or more shortly after housing market bust  On average: $1588 /acre (01-06) to $318/acre (09-10)  40% of per-acre farmland prices pre-bust to <10% after the bust • Measures of influences from multiple urban centers + surrounding popu account for ~30% of parcel-level urban premium before 2007 •This paper offers the first analysis of the magnitude of the short-run structural break in the effect of urban influence on surrounding farmland values due to the recent housing market bust. •This metric quantifies for each parcel, relative to a hypothetical agricultural land parcel with no urban influence, the total dollar value resulting from being located closer to urban areas.
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  2. Hedonic regressions with census tract fixed effects • Parcel-level hedonic regression v.s. county-level • Census tract fixed effects v.s. county fixed effects • Four major parcel-level measures of urban influences that account for multiple urban centers v.s. dist_1st city center  Distance to nearest city center  Incremental distance to 2nd nearest city center <NEW>  Surrounding urban population within 25 miles of a parcel <NEW>  Gravity index (popu/dist^2) for 3 nearest cities Parcel-level urban premium 60 miles away from nearest city, 40 in addition from 2nd nearest city 0 for surrounding urban population and gravity index • Residential property values in major MSAs declined by ~40% between early 2007-late 2008 • No corresponding dip in Midwest farmland values  ethanol expansion  grain exports to China  historically low interest rates Disclaimer These views are the authors’ and not attributable to USDA.
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  3. Research Objectives and Hypothesis • Farmland close to urban areas typically sells for a premium (Capozza and Helsley 1989) • Demand for developable land for residential or commercial uses is the most significant nonfarm factor affecting farmland values • Did the “urban premium” that accrues to nearby farmland remain largely intact, as suggested by recent farm real estate trends, or are these trends masking a larger downturn in the value of proximate farmland? • We hypothesize that the urban housing market bust imposed significant downward pressure on urban demands for developable land and hence the urban premium that accrues to farmland near urban areas. Conceptual Model = Ricardo + Capozza & Helsley Farmland Values = f(Ag_Vars, Urban_Vars) • Soil quality, slope, distance to nearest grain elevator, ethanol plants • Distance to cities and highways, , surrounding population, etc.
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