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  8. Bazzi, Samuel, Robert A Blair, Christopher Blattman, Oeindrila Dube, Matthew Gudgeon, and Richard Peck, “The promise and pitfalls of conflict prediction: evidence from Colombia and Indonesia,” Review of Economics and Statistics, 2022, 104 (4), 764–779.

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  12. Halterman, Andrew, Philip A. Schrodt, Andreas Beger, Benjamin E. Bagozzi, and Grace I. Scarborough, “Creating Custom Event Data Without Dictionaries: A Bag-of-Tricks,” arXiv preprint arXiv:2304.01331, April 2023. The research was sponsored by the Political Instability Task Force (PITF). Funding for Plover was initially provided in part by the U.S. National Science Foundation award SBE-1539302. Mueller, Rauh and Seimon.
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Cocites

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  2. The Gravity of Violence. (2025). Thoenig, Mathias ; Mayer, Thierry ; Marcoux, Julian ; Couttenier, Mathieu.
    In: Working Papers.
    RePEc:cii:cepidt:2025-02.

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  3. Can social assistance reduce violent conflict and civil unrest?: Evidence from a large-scale public works programme in Ethiopia. (2024). Simons, Andrew M ; Machado, Elia ; Hirvonen, Kalle.
    In: WIDER Working Paper Series.
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  4. Capturing the Spatio-Temporal Diffusion Effects of Armed Conflict: A Non-parametric Smoothing Approach. (2024). Kauermann, Goeran ; Thurner, Paul ; Racek, Daniel.
    In: OSF Preprints.
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  5. Integrating Spatio-temporal Diffusion into Statistical Forecasting Models of Armed Conflict via Non-parametric Smoothing. (2024). Kauermann, Goeran ; Thurner, Paul ; Racek, Daniel.
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  6. Violent conflict and the demand for healthcare: How armed conflict reduces trust, instills fear, and increases child mortality. (2024). Schaub, Max.
    In: Social Science & Medicine.
    RePEc:eee:socmed:v:359:y:2024:i:c:s0277953624007068.

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  7. A review and comparison of conflict early warning systems. (2024). Hegre, Hvard ; Gsste, Tim ; Rod, Espen Geelmuyden.
    In: International Journal of Forecasting.
    RePEc:eee:intfor:v:40:y:2024:i:1:p:96-112.

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  8. Conflict forecasting using remote sensing data: An application to the Syrian civil war. (2024). Davidson, Brittany I ; Thurner, Paul W ; Racek, Daniel ; Kauermann, Goran ; Zhu, Xiao Xiang.
    In: International Journal of Forecasting.
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  9. Forecasting the climate-conflict risk in Africa along climate-related scenarios and multiple socio-economic drivers. (2024). Costantini, Valeria ; Tancredi, Andrea ; Paglialunga, Elena ; Conigliani, Caterina.
    In: Economic Modelling.
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  10. Extreme weather impacts do not improve conflict predictions in Africa. (2023). Frieler, Katja ; Schewe, Jacob ; Edova, Barbora ; Michelini, Sidney.
    In: Palgrave Communications.
    RePEc:pal:palcom:v:10:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1057_s41599-023-01996-1.

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  11. High minority power facilitates democratization across ethnic fault lines. (2023). Morath, Florian ; Rusch, Hannes ; Glowacki, Luke.
    In: Working Papers.
    RePEc:inn:wpaper:2023-18.

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  12. Cash and Conflict – Large-Scale Experimental Evidence from Niger. (2023). Premand, Patrick ; Rohner, Dominic.
    In: HiCN Working Papers.
    RePEc:hic:wpaper:382.

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  13. Cash and Conflict: Large-Scale Experimental Evidence from Niger. (2023). Premand, Patrick ; Rohner, Dominic.
    In: CESifo Working Paper Series.
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  14. Hidden hostility: donor attention and political violence. (2022). Santarrosa, Rogerio ; Rohner, Dominic ; Francois, Patrick ; Anderson, Siwan.
    In: WIDER Working Paper Series.
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  15. The Hard Problem of Prediction for Conflict Prevention. (2022). Rauh, Christopher ; Mueller, Hannes.
    In: Journal of the European Economic Association.
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  16. Conflict, Civil Wars and Human Development. (2022). Rohner, Dominic.
    In: Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie.
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  17. Toxic diplomacy through environmental management: A necessary next step for environmental peacebuilding. (2022). Marcantonio, Richard A.
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  18. Threat of taxation, stagnation and social unrest: Evidence from 19th century sicily. (2022). Rohner, Dominic ; Lax-Martinez, Gema ; Saia, Alessandro.
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  19. State Capacity, National Economic Policies and Local Development: The Russian State in the Southern Urals. (2022). Franck, Raphael ; Asmus, Gerda.
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  20. Dynamic Early Warning and Action Model. (2022). Rauh, C ; Mueller, H ; Ruggieri, A.
    In: Cambridge Working Papers in Economics.
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  21. Dynamic Early Warning and Action Model. (2022). Ruggieri, Alessandro ; Rauh, Christopher ; Mueller, Hannes.
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  23. Conflict and the composition of economic activity in Afghanistan. (2021). Martin, Rama ; Lopez, Acevedo Gladys ; Virgilio, Galdo.
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  24. Prevention Is Better Than Cure: Machine Learning Approach to Conflict Prediction in Sub-Saharan Africa. (2021). Kibriya, Shahriar ; Fatema, Naureen ; Musumba, Mark.
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  25. The Hard Problem of Prediction for Conflict Prevention. (2021). Rauh, Christopher ; Mueller, Hannes.
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  26. Inference for ROC Curves Based on Estimated Predictive Indices. (2021). Lieli, Robert ; Hsu, Yu-Chin.
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  27. Conflict and the Composition of Economic Activity in Afghanistan. (2020). Galdo, Virgilio ; Lopez-Acevedo, Gladys ; Rama, Martin.
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