Not Really Free

Jason Mastaitis looks at the compensation available for Mets free agents:

Type A: Richard Hidalgo, Al Leiter
Type B: Mike DeJean
Type C: Kris Benson, Ricky Bottalico

For a Type A player, the compensation is the signing team’s first-round pick plus a supplemental first-rounder. For a Type B, it’s the signing team’s first-round choice. For a Type C, it’s a supplemental second-rounder. However, if the signing team picks in the upper half of the first round, that choice is protected and it loses its second-round selection instead.


I’d mostly agree with his suggested dispositions, although I think I’d offer arbitration to Bottalico as well. Clearly, the Mets should be looking to keep Benson and get compensation for Leiter, unless Benson’s demands are too high or Leiter’s very low. I’m more hesitant to offer arbitration to Hidalgo, although he could yet be useful.
The full list of free agents by type, with asterisks denoting the guys who may still have a team or player option to exercise:

Type A
Moises Alou (ChC), Wilson Alvarez (LA), *Tony Batista (Mon), Carlos Beltran (Hou), Adrian Beltre (LA), Armando Benitez (Fla), Jeromy Burnitz (Col), Orlando Cabrera (Bos), Miguel Cairo (NYY), Vinny Castilla (Col), Royce Clayton (Col), *Roger Clemens (Hou), Rheal Cormier (Phi), Carlos Delgado (Tor), J.D. Drew (Atl), Cal Eldred (StL), Steve Finley (LA), Nomar Garciaparra (ChC), Mark Grudzielanek (ChC), Chris Hammond (Oak), Dustin Hermanson (SF), Richard Hidalgo (NYM), Jeff Kent (Hou), Steve Kline (StL), Corey Koskie (Min), *Al Leiter (NYM), Esteban Loaiza (NYY), Derek Lowe (Bos), Matt Mantei (Ari), Edgar Martinez (Sea), Pedro Martinez (Bos), Mike Matheny (StL), Kent Mercker (ChC), Dan Miceli (Hou), Damian Miller (Oak), Kevin Millwood (Phi), Matt Morris (StL), Jeff Nelson (Tex), Magglio Ordonez (CWS), Russ Ortiz (Atl), Carl Pavano (Fla), Troy Percival (Ana), Odalis Perez (LA), Placido Polanco (Phi), Brad Radke (Min), Joe Randa (KC), Edgar Renteria (StL), Richie Sexson (Ari), Paul Shuey (LA), *Ugueth Urbina (Det), Jason Varitek (Bos), Omar Vizquel (Cle), David Wells (SD), *Woody Williams (StL), Scott Williamson (Bos), Jaret Wright (Atl).
Type B
Terry Adams (Bos), Antonio Alfonseca (Atl), Roberto Alomar (CWS), Rich Aurilia (SD), Danny Bautista (Ari), Dave Burba (SF), Chris Carpenter (StL), Matt Clement (ChC), Craig Counsell (Mil), Deivi Cruz (SF), *Mike DeJean (NYM), Elmer Dessens (LA), Brook Fordyce (TB), Chad Fox (Fla), Alex Gonzalez (SD), Juan Gonzalez (KC), Cristian Guzman (Min), Jose Hernandez (LA), Orlando Hernandez (NYY), Todd Jones (Phi), Barry Larkin (Cin), Curtis Leskanic (Bos), Cory Lidle (Phi), *Jon Lieber (NYY), Jose Lima (LA), Tino Martinez (TB), Brent Mayne (LA), *Jose Mesa (Phi), Doug Mirabelli (Bos), Greg Myers (Tor), Hideo Nomo (LA), John Olerud (NYY), Antonio Osuna (SD), Todd Pratt (Phi), Steve Reed (Col), *B.J. Surhoff (Bal), Jose Valentin (CWS), Robin Ventura (LA), Ron Villone (Sea), Todd Walker (ChC), Gabe White (Cin), Dan Wilson (Sea), Paul Wilson (Cin), Esteban Yan (Det), Eric Young (Tex), Gregg Zaun (Tor).
Type C
Sandy Alomar Jr. (CWS), Carlos Baerga (Ari), Kris Benson (NYM), Henry Blanco (Min), Ricky Bottalico (NYM), Jermaine Dye (Oak), Shawn Estes (Col), Julio Franco (Atl), Troy Glaus (Ana), Todd Greene (Col), Ben Grieve (ChC), John Halama (TB), Roberto Hernandez (Phi), *Todd Hollandsworth (ChC), Travis Lee (NYY), Al Levine (Det), *John Mabry (StL), Ramon Martinez (ChC), Jim Mecir (Oak), Eric Milton (Phi), Mike Redmond (Fla), Desi Relaford (KC), Rudy Seanez (Fla), Aaron Sele (Ana), Ismael Valdez (Fla), Todd Van Poppel (Cin), Bob Wickman (CWS), Tony Womack (StL).

Beltran, of course, is the big prize among the everyday players, as well as Ordonez. Either one would be a good acquisition; Beltran would be better, but Ordonez could come cheaper. Richie Sexson – who like Ordonez is coming off an injury – would also be a nice fit. As much as I like John Olerud and think his glove would be a big help, I don’t see him having enough gas in his tank at the plate to be useful. Carlos Delgado is still a monster, but he’ll be 33 next year and showed the first signs of decline this season; I’d stay away if I were a team as in need of youth as the Mets. Another guy who looks interesting on that list is Matt Clement; power pitchers have always had good fortunes at Shea.

Backman Out

Well, I admit I was wrong to say the Mets should have hired Wally Backman to manage, after the Diamondbacks fire him after discovering past arrests for DUI and domestic violence. Lesson for fans: sometimes, the insiders do know things we don’t. Lesson for Arizona: do your background checks first. It’s a shame, because Backman had the hallmarks of a successful manager. A lot of great managers have had off-field issues, of course, but it’s just not acceptable anymore to look the other way at them.

Meet the Nats, Greet the Nats�

I thought I had deleted this old post, but it looks like I was ahead of the curve for once. DC�s major league team will reportedly be called the Washington Nationals:

Nationals was the primary name of Washington’s first American League franchise from 1905 to 1957, a period that included a 1924 World Series title. At several points during that long stretch, however, Senators was used as an alternate nickname.


(Via The Corner).

Meet The Met

I hadn’t planned on getting back to baseball this week, but of course I can’t ignore the Mets’ hiring of Willie Randolph as manager.
Of course, first impressions of a first-time manager can be misleading or pointless. On the positive side, Randolph has been with a lot of winning teams and was a smart player himself; he seems like a level-headed, even-keeled guy; he’s not the same old retread; and the Mets apparently are not paying him all that much money. On the negative side, he seems a bit too much like Art Howe, there’s probably a reason why Randolph has been turned down for so many managerial jobs in the past (although it’s true that the “you must interview a minority” rule means Randolph has been interviewed for a lot of jobs where the team already had someone else in mind), and he does continue the sense of the Mets as the second-class organization in town.
Time will tell. I would have preferred Wally Backman myself.

Caminiti Died of Drug Overdose

I’ve been on a break from baseball news about these parts; I’ll be looking to refocus on my post-season wrapups after the election. One item of note: a medical examiner’s report has attributed Ken Caminiti’s death to a cocaine overdose. Of course, the contrubuting causes – “[c]oronary artery disease and an enlarged heart” – can’t entirely be separated from Caminiti’s other problems, including steroids, but it would seem that the major culprit here was drugs of a non-performance-enhancing nature.

To All Those Who Missed It

I liked this comment from Shannen Coffin about the Red Sox:

My dad was one of those hundreds of thousands (millions?) of fans who died without ever seeing them win it all. He was way too young to go. As a kid, every year, weathered by years of disappointment, he would tell me, “It’s not October yet; don’t get too excited.” Well, Dad, it’s October now. We did it. Wish you had been there with me. Rest in glorious peace.


UPDATE: Also, leave poor Bill Buckner alone!

BASEBALL/ Schilling for Bush

I’m going to offer a perhaps-unexpected (to new readers, at least) point here and say that now is not the time, and a puff-piece interview on Good Morning America was not the place, for Curt Schilling to stump for President Bush. The stakes in this election are indeed life and death, and of course I welcome Schilling’s endorsement. But:
1. I’ve long been infuriated by entertainers who stick their politics into a venue (interviews, concerts, etc.) where I’m expecting to just be entertained, as opposed to presenting a political argument in a political context. That should go for conservatives in sports and entertainment just as much as liberals. There’s a reason why, despite the baseball/politics mix on this site, I labor to keep the two types of content clearly marked.
2. Sox fans are celebrating right now, and, let’s be frank, a lot of them are Democrats. Don’t spoil that with politics, no matter the cause; just don’t (more on that idea here).
Random links:
Commonwealth Conservative on why he loves baseball.
Tim Lambert on – for what it’s worth now – home field advantages in the World Series.
The Red Sock of Courage.

The Day After

I have to admit it: try as I might, it’s awfully difficult to find anything to add to the moment from last night, just the perfection of the moment of fans and a franchise who’d been denied and cruelly taunted – by fate and by Yankee fans – for eight decades – finally making it to the top of the mountain. Just a few thoughts:
*The Cards had to do the most staggering roll-over-play-dead in the World Series since the 1999 Braves or maybe the 1990 A’s. It looks like Game One really was the turning point; after the Cards couldn’t get over the hump, they just never got anything going. For a team that took the National League by storm, that was shocking, especially on the offensive side.
*Nice job by Jason Marquis to keep the Cards in the game last night; I’m skeptical of Marquis because he’s a high-walk pitcher who doesn’t compensate by overpowering people, but after getting on the ropes early he did manage to avoid the KO.
*More, much more on this (and other bigger-picture questions) later in November and December – after this morning, I will probably shift into politics-only here through next Wednesday or whenever it is that the election is resolved – but you have to figure Curt Schilling is suddenly, improbably closing in on a pretty solid Hall of Fame case. Of course, you would have said the same thing (and I know I did) about Jack Morris after Game Seven of the 1991 Series.
*Manny Ramirez matching Hank Bauer’s record 17-game postseason hitting streak and winning the Series MVP just feels odd – Manny never did bust out with the big longball, and didn’t even drive in a run against the Yankees. Yet again, as always, his overall postseason numbers were less impressive than his regular season stats. Yet, somehow, he just kept poking a hit here and a hit there, and it added up to good things.
*If you own stock in Dan Shaughnessy, sell. (Bruce Allen has the full Boston media roundup)

YOUR WORLD CHAMPION BOSTON RED SOX

Never thought I’d live to write that. The dog finally caught the bus; Charlie Brown kicked the football; Gilligan got off the island. Not being a hockey fan – I remember the Rangers winning the Stanley Cup, but I wasn’t really able to appreciate it – the closest thing I can compare this to is the fall of the Berlin Wall in terms of the “never thought I’d see the day” factor. Wow, just wow.
Technically, the 21st century began in 2001, not 2000. Which means, of course, that the Red Sox have won a World Series in this century. And the Yankees have not.

Birds on the Brink

Well, after what we saw last week, and in light of Red Sox history as well as the dire condition of Curt Schilling’s ankle, it’s hard to say that we should count the Cardinals out just yet. But things look pretty grim. I have to say, even though I’m pulling for the Red Sox, I feel awfully bad for Cardinal fans (which must be a sign that I’m finally over my bitterness from 1985 and 1987), who had a genuinely great team this year; that’s a rare treat, and one that’s spoiled if they don’t go all the way, as fans of the 2001 Mariners could tell you.
Pedro may not have been the San Pedro de Fenway of old last night, but he did a tremendous job shutting down the murderous Cardinal lineup. I expect the Cards to come out and finally pond the stuffings out of Derek Lowe, but it will probably be too late.
One memory that came back watching Larry Walker get thrown out at the plate was back in Walker’s rookie year, 1989, when the Expos dropped to two games back in the pennant race on August 23, in a game they lost 1-0 in 22 innings when Walker was called out in the bottom of the 16th for leaving third base early on a sacrifice fly. I have to wonder if he’s been more tentative about breaking for home on a fly ball ever since.

Let Down

Even though I know this site has a bunch of Red Sox fan readers, from the perspective of a neutral fan, mainly looking to watch entertaining, competitive baseball, I must confess to being pretty disappointed in this World Series. Thus far, it�s been one-sided, sloppy and anti-climactic.
Of course, I�m sure I would feel differently if my team was on the verge of its first championship in 86 years. Or maybe I�m just grumpy because I had such high hopes and because my prediction now appears to have been far off. But it is looking like it�s over � we all know teams can�t come back from down 3-0�right?

Lip

Yeah, Mike Lupica is just all class:

I’ve mentioned in the past, as a Boston College man, that if Notre Dame can’t hold up its end of this football rivalry, we’re going to have to drop them the way we did Holy Cross. But I was taught to be more generous than that at BC. So we’ll keep playing them, just as long as they understand something: We’re their daddy.


If you read the front end of the column, Lupica is laying the groundwork for his preferred storyline that blames everything on A-Rod, totally absolves Derek Jeter, and makes it out like the Yankees’ ability to import an endless line of superstars is somehow a burden they have to carry. Well, of course.

Two Down, But Can The Sox Go?

Random Game Two thoughts:
*Speaking of Willis Reed (see below), during last night’s start by Curt Schilling, I thought back to some of the great or memorable performances by injured players: Reed, Kareem in Game 6 of the 1980 NBA Finals, Nolan Ryan pitching on a fractured ankle in Game 5 of the 1986 NLCS, Kirk Gibson’s home run in 1988. What most great performances like this have in common is, they’re one-day-only things. Schilling has pressed his luck twice, and there are real questions about whether he can go a third time.
*Tim McCarver said last night that Manny Ramirez is an “outstanding two-strike hitter.” Well, I don’t generally accept things like this on faith if they can be checked, especially concerning the two-strike hitting of a guy who struck out 124 times this year, so I looked at Manny’s numbers the last three years, from ESPN.com:

Count Avg Slg OBP OPS
0-2 .221 .372 .228 600
After 0-2 .217 .380 .250 630
1-2 .206 .381 .210 591
After 1-2 .221 .409 .283 692
2-2 .269 .469 .274 743
After 2-2 .261 .463 .375 838
3-2 .271 .508 .521 1029
2 Strikes .245 .440 .338 778
All .325 .613 .423 1036

The “Two Strikes” line adds up his 0-2, 1-2, 2-2 and 3-2 numbers. At first glance, Manny is a terrible two-strike hitter until he gets to 2-2, and only really good at 3-2. But nearly everyone is horrible on those counts; the fact that Manny slugs nearly .400 even on 0-2 and 1-2, .469 on 2-2 and over .500 on 3-2 is not bad at all, both absolutely and in comparison to his usual spectacular production. The average AL player batted .269/.431/.337 this season, but .195/.300/.266 with two strikes, a 26.3% dropoff in OPS; Manny falls off by 24.9% over a three year-period, which is visibly but not outstandingly better.
*Entering Game Three of the World Series, the Cardinals are 29-10 in postseason games at Busch Stadium since 1982, and 16-26 on the road; since 1996, the breakdown is 14-6 at home, 10-14 on the road.
*I wonder what Bill James thinks, being associated with a team that bats Orlando Cabrera second. Repeat: “I am just a consultant, I’m not the manager.”
*Are the Green Monster seats now officially the cool seats now that Hollywood stars like Tom Hanks sit in them?
*I liked the way Cal Eldred went high and outside after Ortiz’ foul homer; a lot of guys love to follow those up by jacking one out, and Eldred tried to get him to bite.
*Well, you get your bombs with Mark Bellhorn, and you get your boots. I still think he’s worth the tradeoff as compared to Pokey Reese.
*Unless I heard wrong, Joe Buck described Jason Marquis as being “infestive” in this postseason, but then again that sounds about right.
*Buck was also doing a way-premature Sox-finally-win-the-championship victory lap in the 7th, before two wins were in the books. The announcers seem to have forgotten about the Cardinals, even after they posted the best record in baseball and dominated the National League. Coming from a crew of one guy whose dad was the Voice of the Cardinals and one who played in three World Serieses for the Cards, that has to grate on St. Louis’ fans.

No Pepper

A doctor weighs in on what went wrong to cause a pepper spray projectile fired by Boston cops to kill a young woman celebrating the Red Sox’ ALCS victory.
UPDATE: My bad; I really just skimmed this before I linked to it, since the writer appears to have some useful knowledge on the subject, but I don’t necessarily endorse the implication some people have drawn from this that the Boston PD doesn’t deserve a good bit of the blame for this. I absolutely don’t think that the Boston PD should be let off the hook here, and I say that as a great believer in giving cops the benefit of the doubt in dealing with difficult situations. One of the first rules of policing is, either you shoot to kill or you don’t shoot. Projectiles like this shouldn’t be fired directly at people if there’s no reason to use deadly force.

BASEBALL/Field of Dreams

Nice article here on Iraq�s national baseball team. It is truly a shame, however, to hear that so many of the players enjoy playing the game, but fear its association with America. That fear is indicative of the climate of terror which some hope to permanently reinstate in Iraqi society and which is anathema to the spirit of the joyful pastime we often take for granted.

Ring My Bellhorn

This game felt rather anticlimactic, as Game Ones often do after an exciting LCS, even as dramatic as the game was. I don’t know, I just kept feeling like the Sox had this one, even when it was tied (and yes, I’m rooting for the Red Sox, not least for the effect a Sox championship will have on Yankee fans). Although the point when Manny – well, I was taking sporadic notes, which just say “Ack! Manny can’t field!” That point was not a good feeling for Sox fans.
Speaking of Manny, breathes there a man alive who would not be mortified by that Stevie Wonder “That’s What Friends Are For” montage FOX Sports did of slo-mo scenes of Manny with his Sox teammates?
Obviously, your moments of zen were the Bellhorn home run and Foulke freezing Jim Edmonds in the 8th with the bases loaded. And, of course, the relentless David Ortiz.
I spotted a guy in a “Cedeno” jersey on the Cardinals, and the announcers kept calling him “Roger Cedeno,” and I even recall the Roger Cedeno being on the Cardinals this year. But then I saw him get a hit in an important situation, and concluded that it had to be a different guy.
Captain’s log: it turned 10 p.m. in the bottom of the fourth inning. Way to reach out to young fans.
Kelly Clarkson, singing “God Bless America,” looked like either somebody played a prank with lampblack around her eyes, or she got her nose broken in the last 24 hours.
You lives by the knuckleball, and sometimes it goes away. Wakefield has decent stuff early, but just stopped throwing strikes. Pirates and Sox fans will recall that sometimes this goes on for years. Hopefully, he’ll find the zone again.
No, I’m not doing a prediction this series, because I’m not a doctor and can’t predict the status of Schilling’s ankle, on which all turns.
McCarver thought Varitek did a good job blocking the plate on Jason Marquis’ Enos Slaughter imitation in the 8th inning, and McCarver does know a thing or two about how hard it is to block the plate. But it looked like a lousy job to me, or at best a valiant but highly ineffective effort.
As I’ve noted before, a good Game One sets the stage for a series. Sometimes in ironic fashion – like in 1986, when the Red Sox won a 1-run game on a ball that went through Tim Teufel’s legs (and it looked like the Mets couldn’t touch Bruce Hurst), or in the 1988 NLCS, when the Mets rallied in the ninth to break Orel Hershiser’s scoreless streak. Tonight’s dramas – Wakefield’s control, Manny’s fielding, Womack’s collarbone, the Cardinal bullpen, the Fenway home cooking.

BASEBALL/To Win Just Once?

Poking my head around on the web site of the Saw Doctors, one of this site�s favorite bands, I had to laugh at this paragraph from a review of an August 12 performance by the band in Cape Cod:

With a tip of the hat to Massachusetts, [Leo] Moran introduced �To Win Just Once� off �Sing A Powerful Song� CD saying, �people keep telling me we should dedicate this song to the Red Sox. I don’t know anything about baseball� [Link added]

If he did, he would see just how applicable are the song�s words (originally written for an Irish boxer who qualified for the 1996 Atlanta Summer Olympics). Submitted for your consideration, here are the lyrics:

Continue reading BASEBALL/To Win Just Once?

Sox-Cards History

While we’re doing the memory lane stuff, consider this: The Red Sox franchise still has a winning record all time in World Serieses, having won 5 in the 1903-1918 period and lost 4 between 1946 and 1986. What’s interesting is when you look at it another way: the 1946 St. Louis Cardinals were the first team ever to beat the Red Sox in a World Series. And the 1967 Cards were the second.
Among the teams that have faced the Sox in the Series since 1918, those 1946 Cardinals are unique in another way: they didn’t win 100 games. Since then, you have the 1967 Cards (101 wins), the 1975 Reds (108 wins), the 1986 Mets (108 wins), and the 2004 Cardinals (105 wins). The Sox sure know how to pick ’em.

The Next Big Baseball Scandal

You heard it here first (I think):
1. The Yankees now have an enormous incentive to convince Jason Giambi to retire so they can get out of his contract (have the insurance company pay it, maybe get relief on the luxury tax).
2. The Yankees are, presumably, in possession of Giambi’s medical records, which may indicate things Giambi doesn’t want publicized.
3. As you may remember from the Dave Winfield/Howard Spira saga, Steinbrenner is not above getting involved in some pretty seedy things, potentially including extortion and blackmail, when he has a grudge against one of his own players.
This is all speculation, of course; I don’t know anything more than you do about any of this. But if I was with the Players’ Union, I’d be watching very carefully to see that undue influences aren’t brought on Giambi to retire.

Redbirds & Red Sox

This should be a great World Series. Brian Gunn over at Redbird Nation has a typically excellent recap of last night�s game, including this line:

Jeff Suppan outdueled Roger Clemens tonight. You know that, I know that, but I don’t care — I’m gonna say it again because I like the way it rolls off the tongue: Jeff. Suppan. Outdueled. Roger. Clemens.


And I liked these comments about the Astros:

[T]hey played some great ball against us. When one samurai warrior defeats another, he doesn’t gloat over him; he thanks him for giving him a worthy competition, for bringing out his best. These Astros brought out the best in us. And even though I don’t feel great about denying them the first World Series in their entire existence, I thank them all the same.


For the Sox side, you�ll probably want to read Bill Simmons if you haven�t already.
Finally, since you�re going to hear a lot about the 1967 Series in the next week or so, you might as well brush up on the facts of that one. As for predictions, I�m really on the fence about this series, but here goes: Cardinals in 7.
UPDATE (From the Crank, who’s been very happy to see the Mad Hibernian at least temporarily back on the blog): You can get more on Bob Gibson, the hero of that 1967 series, in my extended comparison of Gibson to 1926 World Series hero Grover Alexander.

Stretch Run

This is hardly news, but if you look at the standings after the July 31 trade deadline, the postseason runs of the Red Sox and Astros become a good deal less surprising. The best record in baseball after the deadline? The Sawx, at 42-18, a .700 clip. Second best? The Astros, 40-18 (.690). The Cardinals, who had wrapped up the NL Central already by late July, also actually picked up the pace, going 39-20 (.661), tied with the Braves for the third best record. The Yankees were sixth at 36-23 (.610). The Runs Scored and Allowed breakouts for the Sox and Yanks are even more dramatic. Runs Scored per game: Sox 6.27, Yankees 5.63. Runs Allowed per game: Sox 4.55, Yankees 5.15.
Of course, I didn’t put any stock in rational analysis before this series; like a lot of people, I stuck with the idea that the Yankees would beat the Red Sox because they always do. No more.
(On a side note, until I looked at these standings, I hadn’t grasped quite how complete was the late-season collapse of the Brewers, who had looked so promising in the early going. Folks, it’s a long season).

Aftermath

It’s gonna be a long, angry and expensive off-season for the Yankees. If George fires Cashman, the Mets should immediately sack the rest of their front office and hire him. But there will be plenty of time for recriminations. For now, it’s just enough to savor a remarkable comeback. Check out my live blog of Game Seven below.

My Two Cents

Congratulations to the Red Sox on their historic comeback. They sure earned this series victory, especially with epic wins in Games Four and Five that will be long remembered. Check out the Crank below for his definitive commentary.
Watching this game, two rather obvious things struck me about the Yankees:
1) Their pitching just wasn�t that good. On paper, it looked good, but it just wasn�t. In the playoffs, you win with pitching and the Yankees flat got out-pitched in the second half of this series. (Roger Clemens really would have helped.)
2) They miss the Jason Giambi they thought they were getting. In the 7th when it looked like they were coming back, up stepped John Olerud and Miguel Cairo. I like Olerud, but he is near the end. Giambi was supposed to be a pillar of the offense, but he�s been out for so long and was so weak earlier this year that it�s easy for people to forget what was expected from him.
Should be an interesting World Series. Do not count out the National League though � that�s been a truly excellent series in its own right. In fact, I hate to bring up 1986 – well, no I don�t – but the Red Sox had a mighty stirring win in that ALCS as well (remember Dave Henderson?).
We shall see, but these Red Sox have certainly earned their place in the sun.

Armageddon

LIVE-BLOGGING: THIS POST WILL BE UPDATED WHEN POSSIBLE
Peter Gammons is on the pregame show . . . he’s trying to fudge, but you can hear it: he thinks this is finally the year.
These are the saddest of possible words, Matsui to Jeter to Posada.
Yes, Simmons is right. They will rename it Papichusetts. 2-0 Sox.
Most similar player to David Ortiz through age 28: Tony Clark. You know it’s coming: At the end of his next contract, Ortiz will be signed by the Yankees.
Yankees had 61 come from behind wins – that means they were trailing in 122 games this year. That’s a lot, isn’t it?
John Sterling goes out on a limb: “I’d say Ortiz has been the toughest batter the Yankees have faced all year.”
It just cracks me up that one of the Yankees’ major radio ad sponsors is Johnnie Cochran.
Brown drills Cabrera to load the bases. Mister Brown is out of town. After 1.1 innings. Hide the walls!
Grand slam Johnny Damon. 6-0 Sox before the Yankees have a hit. Game Seven of the 1934 World Series comes to mind, when the home town Tigers got blown out 11-0 and the Detroit fans started pelting Cardinals left fielder Joe Medwick with bottles, rotten fruit, and auto parts (said Medwick: “I know why they threw it at me. I just don’t know why they brought it to the park.”).
Sterling: “The crowd, really, in stunned silence.” Charlie Steiner compares Ortiz to Frank Lary. A work colleague emails: “I think we’ve seen Brown’s last pitch in pinstripes.”
20-20-24 outs to go, I wanna be sedated . . .
Reality check: 24 outs against these Yankees is a lot.
No hits for the Yanks in the first two innings. Game One comes to mind. The symmetries are hypnotic . . .
Jeter singles in Cairo. 6-1. Meyers and Leskanic are up in the Boston pen already. Get real: 5-run lead, exhausted bullpen. You gotta give Lowe some rope here if you want to win the game.
Lowe gets out of the inning. Pedro is getting ready to get warmed up anyway. All hands on deck.
We know this much: if the Sox win, the odds of Clemens beating the Cards tomorrow increase exponentially.
I guess Johnny Damon’s slump is officially over. 8-1 Sox.
Javier Vazquez goes down like a tree struck by lightning!
When you are the Red Sox playing the Yankees, leaving the bases loaded with a 7-run lead feels like cause for genuine concern, rather than pure piggishness. It’s not paranoia when they are really out to get you.
The Post is getting its editorial ready.
Dr. Manhattan emails: “Well, the first part of 1999 NLCS Game 6 is going according to schedule…”
Yankees still have only one hit. Maybe we won’t see the Derek Lowe Face tonight.
Top of the 7th, Gordon and Heredia warming in the bullpen. Sterling and Steiner are thanking people – it seems to have just hit them that this may be their last broadcast of the season.
Pedro’s coming in. Why? This could be a volatile situation. I’d rather bring in Mendoza while you have enough lead to have a margin for error.
Sterling is talking up 2005 season tickets. Lowe leaves after just 69 pitches, Matsui smacks a 2-0 double off Pedro. Cue “Jaws” music.
Bernie doubles, 8-2. Lofton singles, 8-3. Olerud hobbles up to the plate.
Olerud whiffs, Lofton on second, two outs. Crowd chanting “Who’s Your Daddy” over and over and over.
Bellhorn homers, 9-3. People are starting, slowly, to realize why Bellhorn was one of the stars of the Red Sox this season. Homer is reminiscent of Strawberry’s homer off Al Nipper in Game 7 in the 1986 World Series.
Al Leiter apparently said on TV that Pedro wanted in. Um, who is the manager?
I hear “Let’s Go Red Sox” chants as Timlin sets them down in the 8th. Where are the Yankee fans?
Cabrera hits a sac fly off Gordon to make it 10-3; Gordon needs the winter to rest. Mariano’s coming in, for the same reason Gagne was on the mound at the end of the Cards-Dodgers season; why not go down with your best guy, no matter how hopeless the odds?
This still seems like it can’t be happening.
Well, it’s over. The Yankees Lose! Theeeee Yankees Lose! The Sox have extracted revenge for last season; the Yankees, gigantic payroll, stacked roster and all, have choked in a way no baseball team has ever choked. The series starts Saturday at Fenway.
The story of the 2004 Yankees is a remarkably simple one. The Yankees’ team ERA after the All-Star break was 4.95, putting stress on the team’s top relievers to keep them in games. Rivera, Gordon and Quantrill combined to throw 111.2 innings in 107 appearances in 76 games after the break. None of the three were as effective in the ALCS as you’d like; Gordon and Quantrill were terrible, and Rivera mortal. And Brown and Vazquez, the Yankee starters who collapsed in the second half after looking like their 1-2 punch early on, were shelled in this series. That’s all you need to know.

To The Brink

Astros have just tied Game 6 of the NLCS 4-4 in the ninth against Jason Isringhausen.
RUNNING UPDATES: Somehow, Izzy got out of the jam, and we go to the bottom of the ninth with Albert Pujols leading off against Brad Lidge. What will FOX do if this game goes extra innings and runs into the Sox-Yankees game?
You have to say Jeff Bagwell has redeemed himself in this postseason, the game-tying hit here being another example.
OK, I don’t think I’ll be updating this one – still got too much else to take care of before the AL game. Bottom of the 11th.
One more: Take that, Jeff Kent. Two-run walk-off homer by Jim Edmonds to send this to Game Seven, just minutes before the opening of the ALCS Game Seven. I’m wondering if any postseason series has seen walk-off homers by both teams – I’ll probably think of one later if it’s been done.

PATRIOT GAMES: View of the Sox-Yanks War From Iraq

Fifth in a series of reflections on sports by “Andy Tollhaus,” an Army officer currently serving in Iraq.
October 20, 2004, 3:45 AM
FOB Danger
Tikrit, Iraq

I just woke up for Round 14 of the Red Sox-Yankees title fight. I turned on the
TV to find a very comforting image: a close up of Curt Schilling peering in over
his glove with the score across the top showing 0-0 in the 2nd. With all the emotions just conjured up, it�s hard to remind yourself that the Sox are actually trailing in the series two games to three.
It�s been a long, painful, tiring ride, just to get to this point. Not only have the games started at the ludicrous hour of 3 AM here in the Fertile Crescent, but for a while it looked as if the Yankees were just going to steamroll my beloved Sox. This series has been highly anticipated for a year, now. For the first couple of days, though, it seemed as if it was all hype.
The Division Series against the Angels was easy enough — both for the Red Sox and for me. It started with an early, 11 PM start time and an easy Game 1 win for the good guys. I asked the company I fly with to put me on the late night/early morning schedule, so I�d be able to watch the games when I�m not flying. It backfired for me during Pedro�s 5 AM start in Game 2, though, as I drew a mission with a 6 AM takeoff time. The game was on TV during our mission planning, but it was only the 2nd or 3rd inning when we walked out to the aircraft. Of course at the same time, the Twins had taken a lead in the top half of the 12th in a classic Yankees game. As I took off for the mission I thought that the Yankees were down two games to none with their backs against a wall. The Twins� loss didn�t really matter all that much, though, since it really was inevitable that we�d have a classic rematch between the two bitter rivals. The Yankees did their usual comeback routine with very little attention from me. In fact, I was having a hard enough time watching the Sox. After missing Game 2 for a mission, David Ortiz hit his walk-off homerun in Game 3 against the Angels while I was walking back from the bathroom. Feeling that this one was in the bag, I took my toothbrush with me to the bathroom during the pitching change so I could go right to bed when the Sox won it. Ortiz wasted no time proving me right, hitting Francisco Rodriguez�s first pitch out of the park.
The sweep gave the Sox a couple of days to get their pitching rotation in order and me a couple of days to make sure I had my sleep schedule down. Still on �deep nights,� as we call it, I�d been going to bed around 8 AM and waking up around 4 or 5 in the evening. I�d maintained this schedule for about a week by the time Game 1 rolled around, so I was primed and ready to roll.
Looking back at what could become one of the greatest series of all time, I realize that I need to record my own personal view of this bit of baseball history. As I sit here and watch Game 6, I�ll create a daily log of personal events during this series. I�ve got to warn you, though, this reflection may be as long and as rambling as the series itself.

Continue reading PATRIOT GAMES: View of the Sox-Yanks War From Iraq

BASEBALL/ World Series Election Trivia

There would indeed be a little bit of humor, in this election season, if we were to see an Astros-Red Sox World Series, Texas vs. Massachusetts. Here’s a little quickie trivia (answers to follow later):
1. Who was the last team from a major party presidential candidate’s home state to make the World Series in an election year?
2. Who was the last team from a successful major party presidential candidate’s home state to win the World Series in an election year?
(“Home state” here meaning the conventional view – the state where the candidate spent his adult life and won elective office, rather than, say, considering Bush from Connecticut and Kerry from Colorado, the states of their birth)
UPDATE: The first commenter gets it, so think of your answer before you check the comments.

What Would Hurt The Most?

As I suggested in an unsuccessful prediction back in September, the most reliable guide to predicting what would happen to the Red Sox is, “what would hurt the most?” My older brother suggests winning the ALCS, finally getting past the Yankees, and getting shut down by Roger Clemens in the World Series. That’s certainly a possibility right now. Of course, staging a historic comeback – the first team down 3-0 ever to force a Game Seven – only to end with just another loss to the Hated Yankees would rank pretty high, especially since only three days ago Red Sox Nation was swearing it wouldn’t believe again. Who knows? Maybe some new cruel symmetry will emerge, as in 1986 when the Sox won Game One of the World Series on a ground ball through Tim Tuefel’s legs . . . karma they got back in spades a few days later (and on the subject of 1986, I did think it unfair to lay out the Sox’ long string of Game Seven losses without noting the 1986 ALCS, when Jim Rice & Co. pounded John Candelaria as a visibly exhausted Clemens shut down the Angels 8-1 in Game Seven).
Turning to last night, I enjoyed the irony, after pregame predictions of rampant early bunting by the Yankees against the sore-ankled Curt Schilling, of Jason Varitek dropping a bunt single in the second that caught A-Rod napping at third. I’m sure the irony wasn’t lost on Varitek.
The umps, led by Cowboy Joe West (best known for body-slamming Dennis Cook in an early-90s brawl between the Mets and Phillies) did a good, tough job last night, having the good judgment to reach collective decisions – even if it meant reversing themselves – in the face of a hostile crowd that wound up requiring cops in riot gear to line the field (the NYPD doesn’t fool around these days). But, not being a rules afficionado, I’m still puzzled – on the play where A-Rod was called out for whacking Bronson Arroyo’s wrist to knock the ball away at first base – why they sent Derek Jeter back to first instead of second after recalling his run. Had the play not been interfered with by Rodriguez, after all, Jeter would have been at second.
That play, by the way, reminded me of the horrific collision at first between Todd Hundley and Cliff Floyd (back when Floyd was a young first baseman for the Expos) that shattered Floyd’s wrist, set his development back several years and almost wrecked his career. Rodriguez and Arroyo were very fortunate to get out of that collision unscathed. Yankee fans, meanwhile, did themselves no credit with their response to the play, although as Yankee booster Tim McCarver rushed to point out, Sox fans had had a similarly bad reaction to Jose Offerman being called out for running out of the baseline in the 1999 ALCS.
This was one of those classic examples of a game where you keep expecting another shoe to drop, and it never does. I just had a feeling early on that the Sox were never going to get that fifth run, and it was all going to come down to whether or not they could hold the lead and avoid a replay of Game Seven from last year (another one of those symmetries – I may be all in favor of rational analysis of the regular season, but there are more things in heaven, earth and postseason baseball than are dreamt of in our philosophies). Still, it may catch up to the Sox tonight that they had to use Foulke again – he seemed to be losing steam rapidly just in his one inning of work – while Rivera and Gordon got the night off (me, I would have left Schilling in – Al Leiter felt the same way – although Francona undoubtedly knew things I didn’t about Schilling’s ankle, and of course Francona wouldn’t have been the first manager to get ripped for leaving Schilling in too long in a big game).
Anybody still upset that the Sox didn’t have Pokey Reese’s bat in the lineup last night?

Knuckling Down

Now, the Red Sox have really been pushing the limits of what they can expect from Tim Wakefield, and they’ve had some tense moments with Jason Varitek’s problems trying to catch him. But does anyone doubt that they would be toast now if they didn’t have a knuckleballer who’s almost immune to the fatigue concerns that plague normal pitchers?
UPDATE: Aaron Gleeman has the must-read analysis of the day, a breakdown of the number of pitches thrown by the various Red Sox and Yankees pitchers the past three days.

Doubling Down on Schilling

Last night’s action almost defies belief, let alone explanation – what unbelievable baseball. I mean, here we have two teams playing 26 innings in 27 hours, and as soon as the Sox-Yankees game ended, it was on to the 8th inning of a 0-0 tie in Houston. Dr. Manhattan emailed this morning to compare this to the 1999 NLCS – a comparison I’d been thinking of last night myself – when the Mets fell behind 3-0, rallied to finally beat John Rocker in Game Four, won the classic rain-soaked “grand slam single” game in 15 innings the next day at Shea, and then lost Game Six – after coming back from 5-0 and 7-3 deficits – in 11 innings two days later. That series involved the home team coming back from a deficit in extra innings twice in as many games, and ended with Kenny Rogers walking in the winning run. 1986 also comes to mind – especially with the parallel of two heart-stopping serieses running at the same time – with the Mets and Astros playing a 12-inning classic at Shea followed by a 16-inning topper in Houston the next day (again due to rain).
David Ortiz has been the anti-Manny, raising his game in the postseason as much as Manny’s falls off; he’s in George Brett territory right now. The two teams seem to have almost given up hope of stopping Ortiz and Matsui. It’s Poppy vs. Godzilla!
The Red Sox can eschew the bunt all they want – the Yankee announcers said only 12 sacrifices all year, which sounded low to me but I’m in too much of a hurry right now to check – but if that’s the strategy, they really need to use better judgment trying to steal bases. The caughts by Damon and Ortiz in the late innings last night were devastating.
Assuming no rainout tonight – and the day is certainly off to a rainy start here in NY – everything will turn on Curt Schilling. The Yankee bullpen is exhausted as well, but the Yankees are at home, they can still afford to lose one, and there’s no reason Jon Lieber can’t at least go 6 innings. If Schilling’s ankle holds up, he may be able to give the pen a serious rest; if he goes down in the first three innings again, I have trouble imagining this one being close.
As for the NLCS, I hope you saw a happy Jeff Kent last night, a rare sight indeed.
Predictions for the rest of the serieses? You think I’m crazy? Well, maybe. I’ll say this: I still, in my guts, expect the Yankees to face the Cardinals.

On the Ropes Again

After Pedro gets lit up in the top of the 6th, the Sox find themselves down 2 with 8 outs left. The good news: Mark Bellhorn’s on second, Tanyan Sturtze is in, and Mariano and Gordon will be tired when and if they get in. And that means hope.
RUNNING UPDATES: Sturtze walks Cabrera – not an easy thing to do, as we saw last night – and Gordon’s coming in to face Manny with the tying runs on base. Gordon has thrown 3 innings the past two days, including two late last night.
Gordon gets Manny to hit into a double play. Rally over. Ugh.
Sox are probably 1-2 outs away from seeing Rivera again.
Cairo doubles off the ubiquitous Timlin. And remember, he’s the weakest of the Yankee hitters.
Jeter bunts him to third. Timlin needs to whiff A-Rod here.
And he does!
Sheffield intentionally walked, Timlin’s out, in comes Foulke. Game on the line here, the ace is in to face Matsui.
Foulke gets him to fly out weakly to Manny.
David Ortiz goes deep off Gordon to lead off the 8th. He could run for mayor right now and win in a walk.
Gordon walks Millar. Roberts in to run for him again. Enter night, exit light?
Nope, Mel leaves him in.
0-1 on Trot, 0 out, Roberts on 1st.
2-1.
3-1, crowd’s on Gordon something fierce, Yankee announcers depressed.
Roberts running 3-1, Nixon singles him to third. Varitek will face Mariano. Kapler running for Trot, who I suppose still isn’t 100%? He used to run well.
2-0. Is Rivera sharp? Yankees playing back for the DP, ceding a tie.
Sac fly ties it.
Mueller grounds out to first, Kapler to 2d, Bellhorn up.
1-2 to Bellhorn.
Bellhorn whiffs. 4-4 going to 9th, bullpen cupboards are pretty close to bare. Due up top 9: Bernie-Posada-Sierra. Bottom: Damon-Cabrera-Manny. Foulke and Rivera both tired, Foulke sounds sharper, Sox are at home. Odds favor the Red Sox here, but only slightly. Odds really favor a 10- or 11-inning game.
2-out walk to Sierra. 1-2 to Tony Clark.
Ground rule double to right for Clark, Sierra has to stop at third. Cairo up, 2d and 3d and two outs.
Cairo pops out. Progress, of a sort, that you wouldn’t hit for him there, but aside from Lofton there’s nobody left on the Yankee bench to hit. Foulke’s thrown 22 pitches, he will likely be done now if this goes to a 10th. Can Rivera be beaten a third time in one postseason?
Infield hit for Damon on Rivera’s 15th pitch. Winning run on first, nobody up in Yankee pen. Can Cabrera bunt here or at least take a pitch?
Damon caught stealing. We will probably go 10 now.
Groundout on a 2-0 pitch. Manny up with 2 outs and bases empty; he will probably swing for the fences and whiff.
Rivera can be tough to bunt on, but man does that decision to have Damon run look bad right now. 2-0 to Manny, Yankee announcers moaning about call of check swing.
Fly to center, we go 10. Bronson Arroyo is in, Jeter up.
Jeter pops out, A-Rod whiffs, 1-1 to Sheffield, Felix Heredia warming up.
Sheffield whiffs. David Ortiz will lead off the bottom of the tenth. Dare to dream again? If Ortiz hits one out here, they’ll make him an honorary Kennedy.
Called strikeout on check swing. Calls are even now? Minky up, Quantrill warming in the pen.
3-0 to the Mighty Mink.
Minky doubles. Kapler up, 1 out, Quantrill coming in, his 266th appearance in the past three years.
Kapler grounds out, Varitek up with 2 out, man on 3d.
Varitek pops out. I’ve got to get in the car, so I’ll wrap this later.

Viva Ortiz

I can’t be the only one dragging badly this morning from staying up to 1:30 to see the end of the Yankees-Sox game. I know they needed a later start to avoid conflicts with football and the Cards-Astros game, but this is ridiculous . . . what a thrilling finish, enough to suck back in all the Red Sox fans who had written off the series, enough to put the history 3-0 deficits out of mind until the end of tonight’s game – at the end of which, if Boston wins, the series looks much more like a battle. And, of course, the most staggering fact of all – the vulnerability of Mariano Rivera, who’s now blown as many saves in this postseason as in the prior nine years.
I was really amazed by the ingratitude of Sox fans towards Mark Bellhorn, who was taunted with the “Pokey, Pokey” chants when he bobbled a grounder in the 6th inning. Bellhorn has had such a great year, yet Boston fans only focus on the negative.
I feel like if I went out in my front yard last night and threw some pitches, Orlando Cabrera would swing at them.
Remember: after tonight, if he loses, the next time you see Pedro Martinez he may be in a Yankee uniform. Which only makes Yankee fans’ taunting of Pedro – for showing the Yanks respect, no less – all the more inexplicable.

Don�t Look Back

Over the weekend, John Heyman of Newsday analyzed the status of the Mets� managerial quest:

Whether it be Omar Minaya’s early influence or merely the odds of finally getting one right, the Mets appear to be on the verge of getting one right.
Minaya interviewed highly respected Rangers hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo on Friday and will interview beloved Yankee Willie Randolph when he returns from Boston. In between those two, Newsday has learned that Minaya will squeeze in a meeting with Bobby Valentine, the one encore candidate we’d enthusiastically endorse for his New York track record�
Valentine’s candidacy is an intriguing plot twist, though one person with ties to the Mets said he believes it’s still largely a “two-horse” race between Jaramillo and Randolph, with Valentine and former Angels and Astros manager Terry Collins under consideration but less likely.


I confess to knowing nothing about Jaramillo, have always admired Randolph and would actually be receptive to a comeback by Valentine. I don�t have strong feelings about Collins.
Anyway, if you�re looking for more Mets analysis, Jason Mastaitis has a two-part prescription here and here. His recommendations include a farewell to John Franco, Al Leiter, Cliff Floyd and Richard Hidalgo, signing Carlos Beltran and starting Victor Diaz in left field next season, among other things. Also, check out this picture for a trip down memory lane.

The Net Tightens on Bonds

The evidence pointing to steroid use by Barry Bonds continues to build:

Barry Bonds was using an “undetectable” performance-enhancing drug during the 2003 baseball season, his weight trainer claimed in a conversation that was secretly recorded last year and provided to The Chronicle.
Trainer Greg Anderson, 38, who is Bonds’ longtime friend and a defendant in the BALCO steroids conspiracy case, also said on the recording that he expected to receive advance warning before the San Francisco Giants superstar had to submit to a drug test under what was then baseball’s new steroids-testing program.
The recording is the most direct evidence yet that Bonds used performance-enhancing drugs during his drive to break the storied record for career home runs. Major League Baseball banned the use of steroids beginning with the 2003 season. It has long been illegal to use them without a doctor’s prescription.
“The whole thing is, everything that I’ve been doing at this point, it’s all undetectable,” Anderson said on the recording of the drug he was providing Bonds. “See the stuff I have, we created it, and you can’t buy it anywhere else, can’t get it anywhere else, but you can take it the day of (the test), pee, and it comes up perfect.”
There was another reason the trainer was confident that Bonds’ drug use would escape detection: Anderson said he would be tipped off a week or two before Bonds was subjected to steroid testing.
“It’s going to be in either the end of May or beginning of June, right before the All-Star break, definitely,” he was recorded saying. “So after the All-Star break, f — , we’re like f — ing clear.”


Now, if this tape is authentic, that would certainly strongly suggest wrongdoing on Anderson’s part, and the high likelihood that Bonds was in on it (he certainly benefitted from it). Anderson’s and Bonds’ lawyers are denying the tape’s authenticity, as you would expect. I regard this as the first sign that we have enough to move the debate about Bonds – which has thus far seemed to me to be based on speculation rather than evidence, even if it’s speculation I tend to sympathize with – into the open.
Bonds is rapidly approaching one of baseball’s most hallowed records. Hopefully, if the evidence surfaces to show that he has used illegal performance-enhancing drugs, MLB can stop him before he gets there, rather than have the record tainted. On the other hand, one wishes there was some way that, if Bonds is actually clean, he could be definitively cleared of all this. But we are rapidly reaching the point where the skeptical fan may start to believe the charges.

Cardinal Flush

Holy Cross alum Brian at Redbird Nation has a fine writeup of last night’s action in St. Louis, with bonus points for saying the weather was “Worcestering” out. I still haven’t read enough about the game yet to find out who was shooting off the fireworks in the pouring rain in the middle of the 7th inning.
Oh, and: yes, I know I’m against big free agent signings, but I do want Carlos Beltran for Christmas (and yes, that’s a baseball-reference.com link with 2004 stats, hooray!). He’s the type of free agent worth pursuing – a top-of-the-market player, broad base of skills, showing rapid improvement in patience and power the past two years, runs well, plays great defense, and he’s only 28 next season. And just imagine a defensive outfield with Beltran and Cameron.

Just Say No

Jeff Quinton wonders about reports that the Mets might be looking to deal Cliff Floyd for Sammy Sosa. Now, there are two possible ways for me to react to this. One would be to take a rational look at the two players, break down their age, productivity, injury histories and remaining contracts.
I choose the second way. No. The Mets simply need to break their addiction to bringing in expensive old guys. Even if they may be better or cheaper or younger than some other expensive old guys they are shipping out. The first step is recognizing you have a problem. If you can’t dump Floyd’s salary for younger talent, then eat the contract. And Glavine’s, too, and the rest. (I’m OK with keeping Piazza, given the difficulty of replacing him, but Leiter has to go). A GM who can’t stop the importation of old, expensive players simply has no business with this team.

Deja Vu

As you can tell from my debate summary, I missed most of the ballgames last night. Of course, that’s aside from the fact that Major League Baseball scheduled the two games to run against each other . . .
On the Yanks-Sox side, Pedro running out of gas has become a theme. You may have been surprised when it was John Olerud who delivered the knockout blow, given Olerud’s struggles the past two seasons; even in his rejuvenated form with the Yankees, Olerud didn’t hit for power. But the unflappable Olerud has long had a knack for big hits against top pitchers, especially when the rest of the team is hitting. On the NL side, any series with the Cardinals in it will be a long one for pitchers on both sides.

Setting The Stage

In the movies, or in a novel or a play, the ideal opening act is one that introduces all the major dramatic tensions without resolving any of them. In an action film, you want a gripping opening, but one that won’t overshadow what comes later.
That’s what we saw last night. We weren’t treated to a historic comeback, or a perfect game, or a game-breaking ninth-inning rally, or vengeance for past defeats, or a beanball war. But we got a tantalizing taste of each. Dramatic themes have been introduced: Will Curt Schilling bounce back in his next start, or is he ailing? Can the Red Sox stop Hideki Matsui? Will Joe Torre ever be dumb enough to use Tanyan Sturtze again? How much gas is in Joe Frazier’s car? (Well, maybe not that last one).
Stay tuned tonight – same bat time, same bat channel.

How The Yanks and Sox Got Here

Before the season, I evaluated each of the teams around the majors based on Established Win Shares Levels (see here for a discussion of EWSL and here for the team method). Over the offseason, I’ll be taking a look back at how teams matched up against those established levels, both to explain where things went right or wrong and to fine-tune EWSL’s usefulness (within its natural limitations) as a predictive tool. For now, in advance of their playoff showdown, let’s look at how the Yankees and Red Sox stacked up to their preseason predictions. You’ll note some variance from the preseason numbers I ran because I did the Yankees before the A-Rod trade.
New York Yankees
Adjusted EWSL: 323.3 (108 wins)
Unadjusted EWSL: 310.3 (103 wins)
Weighted Age: 32.721

Actual Record: 101 wins

Pos Player EWSL 2004 Age
C JPosada 25 20 32
1B JGiambi 32 8 33
2B MCairo 3 13 30
SS DJeter 22 26 30
3B ARodriguez 34 30 28
RF GSheffield 31 31 35
CF KLofton 18 7 37
LF HMatsui* 19 29 30
DH BWilliams 21 16 35
C2 JFlaherty 5 3 36
INF EWilson 2 5 30
OF RSierra 6 9 38
13 TClark 5 8 32
SP1 MMussina 18 10 35
SP2 JVazquez 18 10 27
SP3 KBrown 12 9 39
SP4 JContreras* 7 2 32
SP5 JLieber 4 11 34
CL MRivera 15 16 34
R2 PQuantrill 10 6 35
R3 GWhite 5 -1 32
R4 TGordon 8 15 36
R5 FHeredia 6 0 29

Not a lot of things you didn’t already know here: the Yankees actually underachieved this year, due to major fall-offs from Giambi, Mussina, Vazquez, and Kenny Lofton, while the main guys who stepped way up to pick up some of the slack were Matsui, Cairo, Gordon and Lieber. There’s also the guys I hadn’t listed in the preseason:

Pos Player EWSL 2004 Age
SP OHernandez 4 9 38
1B JOlerud 20 6 35
P TSturtze 5 3 33

Five guys also contributed one Win Share each. You will note that Olerud’s 6 Win Shares, like Contreras’ total, is only for his time with the Yankees. . . and yes, I know 38 is an approximate age for El Duque, but I have to use something.
Boston Red Sox
Adjusted EWSL: 307.3 (102 wins)
Unadjusted EWSL: 307.3 (102 wins)
Weighted Age: 31.735

Actual record: 98 wins

Pos Player EWSL 2004 Age
C JVaritek 14 18 32
1B KMillar 16 17 32
2B PReese 7 3 31
SS NGarciaparra 22 6 30
3B BMueller 17 12 33
RF TNixon 19 4 30
CF JDamon 19 26 30
LF MRamirez 28 28 32
DH DOrtiz 12 25 28
C2 DMirabelli 4 7 33
INF MBellhorn 9 21 29
OF GKapler 7 5 28
13 EBurks 12 0 39
SP1 PMartinez 19 16 32
SP2 CSchilling 20 22 37
SP3 DLowe 15 6 31
SP4 TWakefield 13 8 37
SP5 BKim 16 0 25
CL KFoulke 17 15 31
R2 SWilliamson 7 4 28
R3 MTimlin 8 6 38
R4 AEmbree 5 4 34
R5 RMendoza 4 3 32

A real tribute to the Sox here for surviving the big dropoffs from the contributions of Nomar (even before he was traded), Nixon, Lowe and Kim. Ellis Burks, of course, never did get a role on the team, so his inclusion here is more a feature of February. The two guys who picked up the most slack were Ortiz (who had 15 win shares in 2003) and Bellhorn; the Sox went far this year by ignoring Bellhorn’s 177 whiffs and cashing in on his cheap (less than $500,000 this year) production. But the team’s additions, including one guy I totally overlooked in February (Bronson Arroyo) made a difference:

Pos Player EWSL 2004 Age
SP BArroyo 2 10 27
3B KYoukilis 0 8 25
SS OCabrera 19 5 29
RP CLeskanic 6 3 36
1B DMcCarty 1 3 34

Plus, Dave Roberts and Brian Daubach with two Win Shares apiece, and six other guys with one Win Share apiece, including the disappointing Doug Mentkiewicz (19 EWSL entering the season). Cabrera, clearly, was a useful pickup, and the Greek God of Walks, with his .367 on base percentage, gave the Sox some valuable fill-in work.

Houston, We Have Liftoff

After a 42-year wait and more heartbreaking playoff losses than you can count, the Astros are apparently, at long last, about to win a postseason series. Of course, nothing was more epic than their first two losses, the 1980 series (following their victory in the 1-game playoff with the Dodgers) that concluded a best of 5 series against the Phillies with four consecutive extra inning games, and the 1986 classic with the Mets, with a walk-off homer in Game Three, a 12-inning heart-stopper in Game Five (with Nolan Ryan matching Doc Gooden with a 2-hit 12-K performance despite breaking his ankle in the third inning) and the unforgettable 16-inning seesaw affair in Game Six. And, of course, I’m glad to see Bagwell and Biggio finally taste some success in October.
It’s wierd to see Jose Vizcaino out there; it seems like a generation ago that he was with the Mets (I was still in law school then), and he was neither outstandingly good nor outstandingly young then. . . am I the only one who keeps expecting Lance Berkman to break into an ad for Little Chocolate Donuts?

Dodgers Down

One entertaining moment from last night’s game was during the confrontation between Eric Gagne and Albert Pujols in the 9th; it was a fine illustration of the focus that has made Gagne such a lights-out closer. Pujols fouled a ball viciously off his foot, and was hopping around in agony – and while he’s writhing in pain, Gagne calmly steps forward, takes the ball and talks to his catcher without paying Pujols the slightest notice. Then, maybe two pitches later, Gagne throws a curveball that sails up and in just above Pujols’ head. An accident? Maybe; not too many people throw a curveball as a purpose pitch, especially one that was almost a wild pitch with a man on first. But for a guy who’s still in enough pain that he’s barely able to plant his feet, the curveball sealed the deal as far as making Pujols uncomfortable in the box, and he hit weakly into a double play shortly thereafter.
Other thoughts: Man, the Astros outmaneuvered themselves in using Brad Lidge for only 2/3 of an inning and leaving Russ Springer to take the loss; does someone at FOX Sports stay up at night thinking of annoying ways to distract from the game? The dirt-level “Diamond Cam” is silly enough, but that “Scooter” guy explaining things reminded me way too much of the paperclip guy from Microsoft Word; Game Two of the Yanks-Twins series was the first time Mariano Rivera blew a save in the postseason without costing the Yankees a series.