Ballotpedia's Top 15 elections to watch, 2021

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October 26, 2021

We've compiled a list of 15 elections we watched on November 2, 2021, including races for governor and municipal office.

These elections were selected by members of Ballotpedia's editorial department based on past election results, unique election-specific circumstances, and race ratings published by elections forecasters. The final selections were made with the goal of including a mix of state and local races in mind.

The top 15 elections are grouped by race type and ordered alphabetically. See more of our 2021 election analysis by visiting our Election Analysis Hub.

Top 15 elections to watch

State executive

See also: State executive official elections, 2021

Attorney General of Virginia: Incumbent Mark Herring (D) and Jason Miyares (R) ran for attorney general of Virginia. Herring was first elected in 2013 and was re-elected in 2017, defeating John Adams (R) 54% to 47%. At the time of the 2021 election, the most recent attorney general to win election to a third consecutive term was Abram Penn Staples (D) in 1945.

Governor of New Jersey: Incumbent Phil Murphy (D), Jack Ciattarelli (R), Madelyn Hoffman (G), Gregg Mele (L), and Joanne Kuniansky (Socialist Workers Party) ran for a four-year term as governor of New Jersey. Murphy was first elected in 2017, defeating then-Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno (R) 56% to 42%. Between 1992 and 2021, Republicans held the New Jersey governorship for 16 years and Democrats held it for 14 years. At the time of the 2021 election, the last Democratic governor to win re-election was Brendan Byrne (D) in 1977.

Governor of Virginia: Terry McAuliffe (D), Glenn Youngkin (R), Princess Blanding (Liberation Party), and Paul Davis (I) ran for governor of Virginia. Incumbent Ralph Northam (D) was prevented from seeking re-election by term limits. The Los Angeles Times' Janet Hook described the election as "the first big test of strength between parties since Biden was elected."^[1] At the time of the election, Democrats had won four of the five most recent gubernatorial elections as well as all 13 statewide elections in Virginia since 2012.

Lieutenant Governor of Virginia: Hala Ayala (D) and Winsome Sears (R) ran for a four-year term as lieutenant governor of Virginia. Incumbent Justin Fairfax (D) ran for governor rather than seeking re-election and lost in the Democratic primary. At the time of the election, Ayala had served in the House of Delegates since 2017. Sears served in the House from 2002 to 2004. Virginia is one of 17 states where the lieutenant governor is nominated and elected separately from the governor. Between 2002 and 2021, there were four elected lieutenant governors, two of whom went on to later win election as governor.

State legislative

See also: State legislative elections, 2021

Virginia House of Delegates: All 100 seats in the Virginia House of Delegates were up for election in 2021. At the time of the election, Democrats had 55 seats to Republicans' 45. Democrats won control of the chamber for the first time since 1999 in the 2019 elections. Political commentators described the House elections as a gauge of political sentiment following Joe Biden's (D) election as president in 2020. Between 1993 and 2017, five of the seven state House elections that took place in the year after a presidential election resulted in the party that won the presidential election losing state House seats. During Donald Trump's (R) presidency, Republicans lost 21 seats in the state House, the largest percentage decline in any chamber in the country.

State judicial

See also: State judicial elections, 2021

Pennsylvania Supreme Court: Kevin Brobson (R) and Maria McLaughlin (D) ran for a 10-year term on the Pennsylvania Supreme Court. Incumbent Thomas Saylor (R) retired due to reaching the mandatory retirement age of 75 in 2021. At the time of the election, the court had a 5-2 Democratic majority, meaning its overall partisan balance did not have the potential to change as a result of the election. This was the first state supreme court election in Pennsylvania since 2017, when three seats were up. The next scheduled election took place in 2022.

Municipal

See also: United States municipal elections, 2021

Mayoral

Atlanta, Georgia: Sixteen candidates ran in a nonpartisan election for a four-year term as mayor of Atlanta. Incumbent Keisha Lance Bottoms, first elected in 2017, did not file to run for re-election, becoming Atlanta's first mayor since World War II to not run for a second term. Local political commentary focused on two candidates—city council president Felicia Moore and former mayor Kasim Reed, both of whom were Democrats.

Boston, Massachusetts: Annissa Essaibi George and Michelle Wu ran in the nonpartisan election for a four-year term as mayor of Boston. The two were the top finishers in a primary held September 14. Wu had 33.4% of the vote to Essaibi George's 22.5%. Incumbent Kim Janey, who succeeded to the office in 2021 to fill a vacancy, placed fourth in the primary with 19.5% of the vote. Both Essaibi George and Wu were, at the time of the election, at-large members of the city council.

Buffalo, New York: India Walton (D) and write-ins incumbent Byron Brown (D), Sean Miles (R), Benjamin Carlisle (I), William O'Dell (I), and Taniqua Simmons (I) ran for a four-year term as mayor of Buffalo. Walton defeated Brown in the June 22 Democratic primary 51% to 46%. The New York Times' Jesse McKinley described the election as reflecting "the defining tension within the national Democratic Party, pitting its new generation of left-wing politicians against its more moderate establishment."^[2] Walton's general election endorsers included U.S. Sen. Chuck Schumer (D), the local and national branches of the Democratic Socialists of America, the Working Families Party of New York, and the Erie County Democratic Party. Brown's included U.S. Rep. Tom Suozzi (D), three members of the common council, and The Buffalo News.

Minneapolis, Minnesota: Incumbent Jacob Frey (D), AJ Awed (D), Katherine Knuth (D), Sheila Nezhad (D), and thirteen other candidates ran in a ranked-choice election for mayor of Minnesota. The StarTribune's Kelly Smith described the race in terms of "a broader gap across Minnesota and nationwide as the Democratic establishment faces intense competition from a newly energized and insurgent progressive wing of the party".^[3] Among the areas where moderate and progressive candidates differed were criminal justice, housing policy, and three amendments to the city charter also up on November 2.

Seattle, Washington: Bruce Harrell and Lorena González ran in the nonpartisan general election for mayor of Seattle. Incumbent Jenny Durkan did not file for re-election. Harrell and González were the top two finishers in an August 3 primary, with 34% and 32% of the vote, respectively. At the time of the election, González was president of the city council. Harrell served as city council president between 2016 and 2017 and again between 2018 and 2019. The Associated Press' Chris Grygiel described the election as "a choice between candidates representing the political divide between activist-left residents and more moderate progressives in one of the nation’s most liberal cities," with González representing the former group and Harrell the latter.^[4]

Other municipal

Minneapolis City Council: All 13 seats on the Minneapolis City Council were up for general election in 2021. Fifty-eight candidates—including 11 incumbents—filed for the seats. The two city councilors who did not file for re-election were Alondra Cano (D) and Council President Lisa Bender (D). At the time of the election, Democrats held 12 seats and the Green Party held one. Forty-two of the 58 candidates were Democrats, four were Republicans, and 12 were independent candidates or members of another party.

Seattle City Attorney: Ann Davison and Nicole Thomas-Kennedy ran in the nonpartisan election for a four-year term as Seattle's city attorney. Incumbent Pete Holmes was eliminated in the August 3 primary, receiving 30.6% of the vote to Thomas-Kennedy's 36.4% and Davison's 32.7%. According to local blog My Northwest, Davison was "more of an overt conservative, as a registered Republican who’s been vocal on her 'tough on crime' politics", while Thomas-Kennedy was "an 'abolitionist' in favor of ending the prosecution of low-level misdemeanors."^[5]^[6]

Seattle City Council: The two at-large seats on the Seattle City Council were up for nonpartisan election in 2021. Incumbent Teresa Mosqueda and Kenneth Wilson ran for the Position 8 seat, while Nikkita Oliver and Sara Nelson ran for the Position 9 seat. Position 9 incumbent Lorena González ran for mayor rather than seeking re-election. The other seven seats on the city council, which are elected by district, were next up for election in 2023.

School boards

JeffCo, Colorado: Three of the five seats on the Jeffco Public Schools school board in Colorado were up for nonpartisan election in 2021. Seven candidates filed to run across the three seats. All three incumbents chose not to seek re-election. The outgoing incumbents were elected in 2015 as part of The Clean Slate, a group of candidates supported by the Jefferson County Education Association (JCEA). In 2021, three JCEA-endorsed candidates ran as the Jeffco Kids Slate. As of October 26, 2021, this was one of 71 school districts across 18 states where responses to the coronavirus pandemic had become a point of conflict in 2021 elections. To read more about these districts, click here.