THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL TOURISM: A SIMULATION STUDY

Andrea Bigano, Jacqueline Hamilton and Richard Tol

No FNU-58, Working Papers from Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University

Abstract: We use an updated and extended version of the Hamburg Tourism Model to simulate the effect of development and climate change on tourism. Models extensions are the explicit modelling of domestic tourism, and the inclusion of tourist expenditures. Climate change would shift patterns of tourism towards higher altitudes and latitudes. Domestic tourism may double in colder countries and fall by 20% in warmer countries (relative to the baseline without climate change). For some countries international tourism may treble whereas for others it may cut in half. International tourism is more (less) important than is domestic tourism in colder (warmer) places. Therefore, climate change may double tourist expenditures in colder countries, and halve them in warmer countries. In most places, the impact of climate change is small compared to the impact of population and economic growth.The quantitative results are sensitive to parameter choices, both for the baseline and the impact of climate change. The qualitative pattern is robust, however. Climate change is more important to tourism than is sea level rise, because the latter heavily affects only a few places where beach nourishment is a viable option.

Keywords: Climate change; international tourism; domestic tourism (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: L83 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 23 pages
Date: 2005-01, Revised 2005-01
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (66)

Published, Integrated Assessment Journal, 7 (1), 25-49

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Related works:
Working Paper: The Impact of Climate Change on Domestic and International Tourism: A Simulation Study (2006)
Working Paper: The Impact of Climate Change on Domestic and International Tourism: A Simulation Study (2006)
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