This weekend, households in Finland with exchange electricity contracts have benefitted from cheap energy, but that is set to change dramatically on Monday.
Whereas the average price of electricity was 0.59 cents per kilowatt-hour (kWh) on Sunday, it is projected to climb to 17.55 cents on Monday.
The most expensive hours are expected to be between 8 and 11 am, when the taxable hourly price will fluctuate between 30 and 45 cents per kilowatt-hour. In the afternoon, spot prices will drop briefly to around 20 cents, but rise again between 4 and 6 pm, reaching a peak of 38 cents per kWh.
Weekday morning hours are typically the most expensive. Electricity consumption rises sharply as lights are turned on in homes and workplaces, shops open, and industrial processes start up.
Monday's high prices are mainly due to light winds following several blustery days.
"A significant decrease in wind power production is indeed predicted for tomorrow. It is the most significant change compared to the last few days," Mikko Kuivaniemi, Head of Power System Reserves at transmission system operator Fingrid, told Yle on Sunday afternoon.
No significant impact from Estlink 2 damage
Consumers can track the wind power production forecast on Fingrid's continuously updated ‘State of the power system’ webpage. On Sunday evening, it showed that the country was generating some 12.7 MW of electricity but only consuming about 11.4 MW, with 1.3 MW being exported to neighbouring Sweden and Estonia. Emissions were low at 20g CO₂ per kWh, with all electricity being produced by nuclear, wind or hydroelectric or cogeneration power.
The onset of colder weather across southern Finland will naturally boost electricity consumption for heating.
However, the cold is not so severe that the high hourly prices could be explained by the failure of the 650MW Estlink 2 electricity transmission connection between Estonia and Finland. It was severed on Christmas Day, apparently by an oil tanker’s anchor. Electricity is usually exported from Finland to Estonia, but is occasionally imported from Estonia if there is a shortage in Finland.
"It doesn't have a big impact in this situation. The temperature would have to fall to at least -20 degrees Celsius throughout the country for the shortfall in electricity from Estonia to be significant. In this situation, there is enough electricity, even though wind production is lower," Kuivaniemi said.