This feels like the first week where we have established a true pecking order. A lot of the ranking swaps/decisions I made this week were based upon which teams would win/lose against the teams below them on a neutral field. Some adjustments were also made for head to head results. For example, would you take any of the #13 or lower teams to beat 6-2 LSU? I wouldn't. The top 6 remains difficult to sort. Every undefeated team has struggled at some point this season with the exception of Michigan. This facilitated some more shuffling among the top tier (and obviously the dropping of Penn State, which we'll get to).
01. Michigan (8-0) B10 (+3) - Although their schedule has been crap they've still blown out all 8 opponents. It's too far into the season to ignore that fact any longer - They are the #1 team for now until proven otherwise. It'll be interesting to see if they experience a huge dropoff next year, along with some hefty sanctions, after their opponent scouting program was exposed. This is the second major scandal for Harbaugh in a very short period so I'm expecting a pretty severe hammer from the NCAA and/or Big-10.
02. Georgia (7-0) SEC (N/A) - Their game against Vandy wasn't really as close as the scoreboard said (37-20) but they also went right back to looking like an average top-25 team after that huge win over Kentucky. Is this a team that only gets up for big games? They get 3 (AP) ranked opponents in November so let's check back in on them then. They should cruise past Florida easily this week if they're the contenders everyone thinks they are.
03. Oklahoma (7-0) B12 (-2) - UCF failed on a 2-point conversion attempt that would have sent the game to overtime and the Sooners prevailed. This 2-spot drop isn't really an indictment on them. They got the job done in a scenario not dissimilar to UW's. They might drop a game in their remaining schedule still as they have three 5-2 teams remaining and the other two contests are against 4-4 and 4-3 opponents (combined 23-13). Plus they are almost certain to get a rematch with Texas in the Big-12 title game.
04. Washington (7-0) P12 (-1) - Going to preface this by saying this is not me making excuses for the team's performance last Saturday. The first 5 possessions of the game for UW covered the entire first half and were 3 turnovers, a 5 play punt, and a 73 yard field goal drive. That's about as bad a half as they've had in almost 2 full years. The defense showed that it can step up and answer when its needed which was great to see. UW dropping only to 4th is more a reflection of the teams I have below them than it is of the ASU game so read below for some further explanation.
05. Ohio State (7-0) B10 (N/A) - Normally a team would get a big bump after a win over a previously 6-0 and top 10 team but there was a lot to be concerned about with that game. Both Ohio State and Penn State do not have CFP caliber quarterbacks (yet). They missed wide open receivers all game. With that level of QB play I just can't bring myself to put Ohio State into the top 4 as a potential playoff team. I saw nothing on Saturday that tells me they can beat Michigan and certainly saw nothing that tells me they can execute a clutch drive in a 2 minute situation to eek out a win.
06. Florida State (7-0) ACC (+1) - A case could be made that FSU belongs above both Ohio State and Washington and if that's your firm belief then I probably don't have enough concrete arguments to convince you otherwise. Maybe I'm being unfair to them but it's hard to put a lot of weight into a week 1 win over LSU when it was immediately followed by near losses to Boston College and Clemson in what is a very very down year for the ACC. The wins over Syracuse and Duke are about even with the other teams that have beaten both of those programs. Simply put - Their season aggregate results have been slightly less impressive than the other undefeated teams. They've gotten past the toughest part of their schedule so I expect them to remain undefeated until at least the ACC championship game. Looking just at ranked wins (over teams I have ranked) - FSU has beaten #12 LSU and #22 duke. UW has beaten #9 O****n. And Ohio State has beaten #13 Penn State and #15 Notre Dame. Those are all fairly comparable resumes so the tiebreaker that I went with was that I think UW has the offense to beat both and I don't think FSU has the offense to get past Ohio State.
07. Texas (6-1) B12 (+1) - UW's exes live in Texas... Sark almost Sark'd but the refs came to the rescue (to an extent). Houston had a great chance to force overtime but we'll never know if they would have scored or not. Texas has a slightly easier schedule than Oklahoma to close out the regular season so I'm pretty confident they will meet the Sooners for a rematch. But they're still in a 4-way tie for 2nd in the Big-12 right now and any slip up at all could knock them out of it.
08. Alabama (7-1) SEC (+3) - Slotted here only because of the head to head. If they played again today I would pick Alabama to beat Texas. Since settling on a quarterback they've looked much more stable. They're probably not a playoff team but don't be surprised if Bama finishes conference play 11-1 before losing to Georgia in the SEC title game. Bama has the tiebreaker over Ole Miss so if they win next week over LSU they will almost certainly take the SEC West. If Bama loses that's where things get interesting because there would be a 3-way tie between LSU, Ole Miss, and Bama with each being 1-1. They're on a bye this week to prep for LSU.
09. O****n (6-1) P12 (N/A) - They let WSU put up just shy of 500 yards on them. What was the only difference in this game? WSU kicking field goals while O****n scored touchdowns. WSU had 3 FG and 2 TD to the D**ks' 5 TD and 1 FG. Their secondary depth is a major cause for concern and it did look like Bucky Irving might have been a little shaken up. They can't afford to lose him or any other DBs or they'll be in some huge trouble. The trip to Utah this Saturday is the most pivotal game of their season. Since they lost to UW this game becomes a must-win. I'm not sure I agree with the line (-6.5) or the over/under here (47.5). Bo Checkdowns is going to have to make some clutch plays and he hasn't shown that ability in any of the D**ks' biggest games over the past 2 seasons.
10. Oregon State (6-1) P12 (+2) - I think OSU fans will look back on this season and really wish they had the first half against WSU back. This could have (and arguably should have) been an undefeated team heading into this week. If we were to apply the transitive rule of college football they're about to lose by 50 points to Arizona. Obviously that's not how things work but this game is a lot tougher than most people in the country realize. I want to root for the Beavs but I think we need Arizona to pull off this upset because there's a distinct possibility that OSU might end up being UW's only conference loss this year.
11. Ole Miss (6-1) SEC (+2) - They have wins over 6-2 LSU and 6-1 Tulane to pair with their lone loss (24-10 on the road) against Alabama. None of their wins have been all that impressive but they're getting it done somehow. The wheels could still fall off this thing pretty quickly as they still face Texas A&M and Georgia.
12. LSU (6-2) SEC (+7) - On a bye this week to prep for Bama. They have what is now the #1 offense in the country but their defense is hella sus. That season opening loss to FSU has destroyed what could have been a CFP run. This team has the talent to win out and ruin both Alabama's and Georgia's seasons.
13. Penn State (6-1) B10 (-7) - What we saw last Saturday was just bad quarterback play. Allar is not accurate enough to carry this team which is why I dropped them a lot. I'm confident they would lose to all the teams ranked above them (and probably several below them) on a neutral field. This season is going to end just like last season with Penn state ranked in the top-10, having 0 wins over ranked teams (in the final polls), and losing to both Michigan and Ohio State. When that happens I shall dub Penn State the most consistently overrated team in the country.
14. Louisville (6-1) ACC (+3) - They were on a bye and Pitt (who they lost to the previous week) went and lost to Wake Forest, thereby making that loss look even worse. This position is solely because of their head to head win over Notre Dame.
15. Notre Dame (6-2) IND (+3) - If Notre Dame does this week what Louisville couldn't (beat Pitt) I will be swapping them regardless of h2h results. It's a good thing they only had 10 guys on the field on that final two plays against Ohio State because a 7-1 Notre Dame is instead looking at a breeze of a schedule to reach 11-1 and ruin the CFP for one of the major conferences.
16. Missouri (7-1) SEC (+3) - They get a bye week to prep for Georgia. Hopefully they use it well. I'm really surprised that I have them rated at the same spot the AP poll does. I felt like I might be a little low on them but given their close wins over a bunch of inferior teams in the first month of the season it was hard to push them up much higher. Their lone loss is by 10 points to LSU but that game was at home.
17. Utah (6-1) P12 (+4) - Just gonna say real quick that I told you all so about Cam Rising. Not that anyone doubted me (at least none of you said so) but it was obvious Utah was playing coy with his status for a reason. I don't know if accepting that reality changes much for this team but they remain the Pac-12's best defense with a bottom 1/3rd offense. That could be enough to get past the D**ks; especially at home with Gameday in town. I'm highly skeptical on if it's enough to get past UW in Seattle though.
18. North Carolina (6-1) ACC (-6) - What the hell was that? They had a CFP darkhorse run in their sights and then wiped out against Virginia at home. I guess the difference between great teams and good teams is finding a way to escape these kinds of games (UW > ASU???). UNC now sits with Miami as their best win and no real chances left to recover (Duke, Clemson, and NC State will not be needle movers). In a year where one bad loss is definitely a CFP elimination in the ACC there is no longer any hope left for them. Even if they finished 12-1 with a win over Florida State in the ACC championship game I think FSU would still be chosen above them by the CFP committee.
19. USC (6-2) P12 (-6) - YOU HAD ONE JOB TO DO!!! I guess the USC ticket office shouldn't have boasted about how the UW game was a sellout 2 weeks ago because the 3rd party market is getting swamped with seats now. It's difficult to understand how Grinch still has a job. There is way too much talent on that roster for a defense like that to be tolerable.
20. Tennessee (5-2) SEC (-3) - Their best win is one of UTSA (4-3), Austin Peay (5-2 FCS), or Texas A&M (4-3). Hard to see them finishing better than 8-4 with matchups against Kentucky, Mizzou, and Georgia remaining. They'll face off with Kentucky this week in an SEC East elimination game. Win and there's still hope of taking the conference. Lose and there's 0 chance. The loser of this matchup will also be on a fast track for finishing the season unranked.
21. Air Force (7-0) MWC (N/A) - With a Go5 team you'd like to see at least one power 5 game on their schedule but Air Force has none. They should cruise to 12-0 and a matchup with Fresno State for the Fiesta Bowl bid but there's no justification for them being ranked above any 2-loss power 5 team until then.
22. Duke (5-2) ACC (-7) - Duke is dutifully filling the role of "only team in the ACC that can give the other ranked ACC teams a resume boost. They still have road games against Louisville and North Carolina. If they can sweep those they'll get a rematch with Florida State. Split them and they're probably done. Next up is Louisville who had a bye to prepare. I don't like Duke's odds.
23. Kentucky (5-2) SEC (N/A) - No movement this week but their resume is now looking very weak compared to the surrounding teams. It's hard to justify moving anyone else in place of them. Florida is currently Kentucky's best win. The game against Tennessee will either be the boost they need to call this a successful season or the nail in their coffin.
24. UCLA (5-2) P12 (N/A) - It's week 9 and Chip Kelly still hasn't figured out his quarterback room. They're very fortunate to have the easiest Pac-12 schedule but any of the remaining teams could still bite them. And then of course there's the annual rivalry game against USC to worry about (although the state of USC might be in doubt by then).
25. Florida (5-2) SEC (New) - They have a win over Tennessee and an opening season loss to Utah to go along with their loss to Kentucky. If they can give Georgia a game this week they might even move up in my rankings.
Others - Adding a new section this week to discuss something. While I have 8 SEC teams in the rankings (and yes I think that's a lot but...) I also have 17 teams in my list of those just outside. This has been a fairly bizarro season with a lot of teams sitting at 2 or less losses this late into the year (and Arizona with 3 but looking quite good). You could easily make a case for Fresno State, Miami, Maryland, Wisconsin, Iowa, Arizona, Tulane, Oklahoma State, BYU, Kansas, Kansas State, Liberty, Rutgers, Georgia State, James Madison, UNLV, and Toledo to be 25th instead. What ultimately pushed the SEC teams into the bottom of this ranking is that I would pick them to beat these other 17 teams on a neutral field this week.
25. Iowa (6-2) B10 - We all saw the big controversy right? I'd rather talk about that than talk about Iowa football so let's just say they're the worst 6-2 team in the country and they have been winning a lot of games where they get massively outplayed. Now about that "fair catch"... I think the officials did everyone a huge disservice by not blowing the play dead right away and I don't think we should allow replay booths to overturn that type of call. I didn't see any of the coverage team let up so it was a legitimate run back for a touchdown. But the letter of the rule clearly states what must happen in that situation and the officials followed it (albeit after the fact). I think the rule, as written, is probably correct for the sport. It's incredibly difficult for a gunner to identify if a receiver has signaled fair catch or not when they're sprinting down the field while being blocked/impeded by an opponent. Any signal that looks even remotely like a fair catch should be considered a fair catch because otherwise the gunners are at an unfair disadvantage. If someone fair catches and you touch them at all it typically has a much more outsized impact on the game than just calling the receiver down at the point of the catch. And I will always be in favor of rules that don't give an unfair advantage to one side or the other. The game needs to be playable for a defender (which is essentially what the kicking team becomes in punt scenarios) and there are already far too many things that disadvantage that role.
ACC - 4
B10 - 3
B12 - 2
IND - 1
MWC - 1
P12 - 6
SEC - 8
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