With the frenzy of 2016 NFL free agency winding down, we can start to get an idea of what the Arizona Cardinals compensatory pick outlook will be for the '17 draft.

Comp picks are awarded to teams that lose more free agents than they sign. A total of 32 comp picks are awarded for any given year. No more, no less, except last year, which was an exception. This is important as I will explain a little later.

Comp picks can be awarded as high as the third round and as low as the seventh round. The round that a pick is assigned is related to the contract value the lost free agent signs with their new team for. There are other factors, but they pale in comparison to the contract value. The contract value used in the calculation includes their salary, signing bonus or roster bonus but excludes salary escalators such as post season incentives or work out bonuses. We'll call that number the APY or average per year. Essentially, the more money they make, the higher the the comp pick they earn for their former team.

So how how many comp picks can the Cards expect for their free agent loses this year? Let's take a look.

First let's list the free agents the Cards lost and their APY:

Bobby Massie, $5.9M
Ted Larsen, $2.4M
Rashard Johnson, $2M
Sean Weatherspoon, $1.5M
Bradley Sowell, $1M

Massie's APY qualifies for a fifth round pick according to the projections at OverTheCap. Massie would have to have an APY over $6.5M in order to qualify for a fourth round pick. The the other four qualify as seventh round picks. They would need to have APY's north of $3.3M to become sixth rounders.

It's looking good so far. That's five qualifying free agents but two of those are cancelled by the free agents signed by the Cards. Tyvon Branch and his $4M APY, cancels the loss of Larsen, while Evan Mathis and his $4M APY cancels the loss of Johnson.

That leaves the Cards with a net loss of three free agents and should mean that they would gain three comp picks as compensation.

Here's where things get dicey. Remember that statement I made above about there are only 32 total comp picks that are handed out any given year. Well unfortunately for the Cards, there are currently 32 qualifying free agents that signed for higher APY's than Weatherspoon and Sowell. The 32nd place APY belongs to Scott Tolzien at $1.75M.

Essentially, while Weatherspoon and Sowell do qualify in the calculation, they are disqualified because they didn't sign for enough money. Son of a biscuit.

So, as projections stand right now, the Cards can expect one 5th round comp pick in '17.

Things still have time to change though. Powers and Freeney are still out there waiting to be signed. Another team will need to sign them for more than $2M to be a factor though and then that will only get the Cards an extra 7th rounder. Maybe...