More than half of European heat-related deaths in summer 2022 attributed to anthropogenic warming

The starting point was previous research in which, using temperature and mortality records from 35 European countries, epidemiological models were fitted to estimate heat-related mortality in the summer 2022. Using a dataset of global mean surface temperature anomalies between 1880 and 2022, they estimated the increase in temperatures due to anthropogenic warming for every region. They then subtracted those increases from the recorded temperatures to obtain an estimate of what temperatures would have been in the absence of anthropogenic warming. Finally, using the model developed in the first study, they estimated mortality for a hypothetical scenario where those temperatures would have occurred.

The results, published in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, showed that the number of heat-related deaths per million inhabitants attributed to anthropogenic warming was twice as high in the Southern regions compared to the rest of Europe.

In line with previous studies, the team found a higher number of heat-related deaths attributed to climate change among women (22,501 out of 37,983 deaths) and people aged 80 years or more (23,881 out of 38,978 deaths) as opposed to men (14,026 out of 25,385 deaths) and people aged 64 years or less (2,702 out of 5,565 deaths).

"This study sheds light on the extent to which global warming impacts public health. While we observe an increase of heat-related mortality across nearly all the countries analysed, not everyone is affected equally, with women and the elderly particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of rising temperatures," says Thessa Beck, ISGlobal researcher, and the study's first author.

Urgent need for ambitious adaptation and mitigation measures

Temperatures in Europe are rising twice as fast as the global average, exacerbating health impacts. But climate change has not only exacerbated heat-related mortality in exceptionally hot summers as in 2022. According to the study's findings, between 44% and 54% of heat-related summer mortality between 2015 and 2021 can be attributed to global warming. In absolute terms, this corresponds to an annual burden of between 19,000 and 28,000 deaths. By comparison, the figures for 2022 show an alarming 40% increase in heat-related mortality and a two-thirds increase in mortality attributed to anthropogenic warming.

"Our study urgently calls on governments and national authorities in Europe to increase the ambition and effectiveness of surveillance and prevention measures, new adaptation strategies, and global mitigation efforts. Without strong action, record temperatures and heat-related mortality will continue to rise in the coming years," says Joan Ballester Claramunt, Principal Investigator of the European Research Council (ERC) Consolidator Grant EARLY-ADAPT