Search Results (622)

Conventional matched-field processing (MFP) for acoustic source localization is sensitive to environmental mismatches because it is based on the wave propagation model and environmental information that is uncertain in reality. In this paper, a mode-predictable sparse Bayesian learning (MPR-SBL) method is proposed to increase robustness in the presence of environmental uncertainty. The estimator maximizes the marginalized probability density function (PDF) of the received data at the sensors, utilizing the Bayesian rule and two hyperparameters (the source powers and the noise variance). The replica vectors in the estimator are reconstructed with the predictable modes from the decomposition of the pressure in the representation of the acoustic normal mode. The performance of this approach is evaluated and compared with the Bartlett processor and original sparse Bayesian learning, both in simulation and using the SWellEx-96 Event S5 dataset. The results illustrate that the proposed MPR-SBL method exhibits better performance in the two-source scenario, especially for the weaker source. Full article

This paper presents a robust control strategy for trajectory-tracking control of Skid-Steer Mobile Manipulators (SSMMs) using a Robust Nonlinear Model Predictive Control (R-NMPC) approach that minimises trajectory-tracking errors while overcoming model uncertainties and terra-mechanical disturbances. The proposed strategy is aimed at counteracting the effects of disturbances caused by the slip phenomena through the wheel–terrain contact and bidirectional interactions propagated by mechanical coupling between the SSMM base and arm. These interactions are modelled using a coupled nonlinear dynamic framework that integrates bounded uncertainties for the mobile base and arm joints. The model is developed based on principles of full-body energy balance and link torques. Then, a centralized control architecture integrates a nominal NMPC (disturbance-free) and ancillary controller based on Active Disturbance-Rejection Control (ADRC) to strengthen control robustness, operating the full system dynamics as a single robotic body. While the NMPC strategy is responsible for the trajectory-tracking control task, the ADRC leverages an Extended State Observer (ESO) to quantify the impact of external disturbances. Then, the ADRC is devoted to compensating for external disturbances and uncertainties stemming from the model mismatch between the nominal representation and the actual system response. Simulation and field experiments conducted on an assembled Pioneer 3P-AT base and Katana 6M180 robotic arm under terrain constraints demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. Compared to non-robust controllers, the R-NMPC approach significantly reduced trajectory-tracking errors by 79.5% for mobile bases and 42.3% for robot arms. These results highlight the potential to enhance robust performance and resource efficiency in complex navigation conditions. Full article

The increased integration of renewable energy sources (RESs), such as photovoltaic and wind turbine systems, in microgrids poses significant challenges due to fluctuating weather conditions and load demands. To address these challenges, this study introduces an innovative approach that combines Unscented Transformation (UT) with the Enhanced Cheetah Optimization Algorithm (ECOA) for optimal microgrid management. UT, a robust statistical technique, models nonlinear uncertainties effectively by leveraging sigma points, facilitating accurate decision-making despite variable renewable generation and load conditions. The ECOA, inspired by the adaptive hunting behaviors of cheetahs, is enhanced with stochastic leaps, adaptive chase mechanisms, and cooperative strategies to prevent premature convergence, enabling improved exploration and optimization for unbalanced three-phase distribution networks. This integrated UT-ECOA approach enables simultaneous optimization of continuous and discrete decision variables in the microgrid, efficiently handling uncertainty within RESs and load demands. Results demonstrate that the proposed model significantly improves microgrid performance, achieving a 10% reduction in voltage deviation, a 10.63% decrease in power losses, and an 83.32% reduction in operational costs, especially when demand response (DR) is implemented. These findings validate the model’s efficacy in enhancing microgrid reliability and efficiency, positioning it as a viable solution for optimized performance under uncertain renewable inputs. Full article

Background: Pandemic outbreaks have emerged as a significant global threat, with the potential to cause waves of infections that challenge public health systems and disrupt societal norms. Understanding the underlying behavior of disease transmission can be of great use in the design of informed and timely public health policies. It is very common for many contagious diseases not to have actual incidence but rather incidence in a given subgroup. For example, in Spain, as of 28 March 2022, the incidence of COVID-19 in people under 60 years of age is not registered. Methods: This work provides a Bayesian methodology to model the incidence of any infectious disease in the general population when its cases are only registered in a specific subgroup of that population. The case study used was the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), with data for 52 Spanish provinces during the period of 1 January 2020 to 29 August 2022. Results: Explicitly, two multilevel models were proposed, one for people over or of 60 years of age and the other for people under 60 years of age. Performance of the models was 5.9% and 12.7% MAPE, respectively. Conclusions: Despite the limitations of the data and the complexity and uncertainty in the propagation of COVID-19, the models were able to fit the data well and predict incidence with very low MAPE. Full article

The sources of uncertainty in wall-to-wall AGB maps propagate from the tree to pixel, but uncertainty due to forest cover mapping is rarely incorporated into the error propagation process. This study aimed to (1) elaborate an analytical procedure to incorporate forest-mapping-related uncertainty into the error propagation from plot and pixel predictions; (2) develop a stratified estimator with a model-assisted estimator for small and large areas; and (3) estimate the effect of ignoring the mapping uncertainty on the confidence intervals (CIs) for totals. Data consist of a subset of the Brazilian national forest inventory (NFI) database, comprising 75 counties that, once aggregated, served as strata for the stratified estimator. On-ground data were gathered from 152 clusters (plots) and remotely sensed data from Landsat-8 scenes. Four major contributions are highlighted. First, we describe how to incorporate forest-mapping-related uncertainty into the CIs of any forest attribute and spatial resolution. Second, stratified estimators perform better than non-stratified estimators for forest area estimation when the response variable is forest/non-forest. Comparing our stratified estimators, this study indicated greater precision for the stratified estimator than for the regression estimator. Third, using the ratio estimator, we found evidence that the simple field plot information provided by the NFI clusters is sufficient to estimate the proportion forest for large regions as accurately as remote-sensing-based methods, albeit with less precision. Fourth, ignoring forest-mapping-related uncertainty erroneously narrows the CI width as the estimate of proportion forest area decreases. At the small-area level, forest-mapping-related uncertainty led to CIs for total AGB as much as 63% wider in extreme cases. At the large-area level, the CI was 5–7% wider. Full article

Ultra-low-voltage design brings considerable outcomes in power reduction and energy efficiency improvement at the cost of performance degradation and uncertainty. Conventional standard cell design methodology cannot guarantee optimal performance for subthreshold operations due to the lack of consideration of process variation. In this paper, an effective subthreshold cell sizing method is proposed to minimize the worst-case propagation delay by deriving the optimal pMOS-to-nMOS width ratio (β) analytically, which reveals the relation between the minimal worst-case delay and the process parameters and provides distinct guidance for standard cell library design. The proposed method demonstrated good agreement with the Monte Carlo SPICE simulation results and was validated at the cell level and the circuit level. At the cell level, the logic cells designed with the proposed method show at least 8.6% and 7.4% improvement, on average, for worst-case delay and energy-delay product (EDP), respectively, with an additional 3.2% energy overhead compared to the prior approaches. At the circuit level, the proposed method improves the worst-case performance and worst-case EDP of the ring oscillator by at least 15.5% and 15.0%, respectively, with a 0.9% energy penalty. Moreover, the ISCAS’89 and OpenCores circuits synthesized with the optimized cells achieve at least 6.6% worst-case performance enhancement, 6.9% power reduction, and 9.4% area saving. Full article

Bearings are pivotal components of rotating machines where any defects could propagate and trigger systematic failures. Once faults are detected, accurately predicting remaining useful life (RUL) is essential for optimizing predictive maintenance. Although data-driven methods demonstrate promising performance in direct RUL prediction, their robustness and practicability need further improvement regarding physical interpretation and uncertainty quantification. This work leverages variational neural networks to model bearing degradation behind envelope spectra. A convolutional variational autoencoder for regression (CVAER) is developed to probabilistically predict RUL distributions with confidence measures. Enhanced average envelope spectra (AES) are used as network input for its physical robustness in bearing condition assessment and fault detection. The use of the envelope spectrum ensures that it contains only bearing-related information by removing other rotor-related frequencies, hence it improves the RUL prediction. Unlike traditional variational autoencoders, the probabilistic regressor and latent generator are formulated to quantify uncertainty in RUL estimates and learn meaningful latent representations conditioned on specific RUL. Experimental validations are conducted on vibration data collected using multiple accelerometers whose natural frequencies cover bearing resonance ranges to ensure fault detection reliability. Beyond conventional bearing diagnosis, envelope spectra are extended for statistical RUL prediction integrating physical knowledge of actual defect conditions. Comparative and ablation studies are conducted against benchmark models to demonstrate their effectiveness. Full article

The work presented here marks a further advance in expert uncertainty quantification. In a recent probabilistic evaluation of ice sheet process contributions to sea level rise, tail dependence was elicited and propagated through an uncertainty analysis for the first time. The elicited correlations and tail dependencies concerned pairings of three processes: Accumulation, Discharge and Run-off, which operate on major ice sheets in the West and East Antarctic and in Greenland. The elicitation enumerated dependencies between these processes under selected global temperature change scenarios over different future time horizons. These expert judgments allowed us to populate a Paired Copula Bayesian network model to obtain the estimated contributions of these ice sheets for future sea level rise. Including positive central tendency dependence and tail dependence increases the fatness of the upper tails of projected sea level rise distributions, an amplification important for designing and evaluating possible mitigation strategies. Detailing and jointly computing distributional dependencies and tail dependencies can be crucial components of good practice for assessing the influence of uncertainties on extreme values when modelling stochastic multifactorial processes. Full article

Recent progress in autonomous vehicle technology has led to the development of accurate and efficient tools for ensuring safety, which is crucial for verifying the reliability and security of vehicles. These vehicles operate under diverse conditions, necessitating the analysis of varying initial conditions and parameter values. Ensuring the safe operation of the vehicle under all these varying conditions is essential. Reachability analysis is an important tool to certify the safety and stability of the vehicle dynamics. We propose a reachability analysis approach for evaluating the response of the vehicle dynamics, specifically addressing uncertainties in the initial states and model parameters. Reachable sets illustrate all the possible states of a dynamical system that can be obtained from a given set of uncertain initial conditions. The analysis is crucial for understanding how variations in initial conditions or system parameters can lead to outcomes such as vehicle collisions or deviations from desired paths. By mapping out these reachable states, it is possible to design systems that maintain safety and reliability despite uncertainties. These insights help to ensure the stability and reliability of the vehicles, even in unpredictable conditions, by reducing accidents and optimizing performance. The nonlinearity of the model complicates the computation of reachable sets in vehicle dynamics. This paper proposes a Koopman theory-based approach that utilizes the Koopman principal eigenfunctions and the Koopman spectrum. By leveraging the Koopman principal eigenfunction, our method simplifies the computational process and offers a formal approximation for backward and forward reachable sets. First, our method effectively computes backward and forward reachable sets for a nonlinear quarter-car model with fixed parameter values. Furthermore, we applied our approach to analyze the uncertainty response for cases with uncertain parameters of the vehicle model. When compared to time-domain simulations, our proposed Koopman approach provided accurate results and also reduced the computational time by half in most cases. This demonstrates the efficiency and reliability of our proposed approach in dynamic systems uncertainty analysis using the reachable sets. Full article

This study presents a model-based parameter estimation method for integrating and validating uncertainty in expert knowledge and simulation models. The parameters of the models of complex systems are often unknown due to a lack of measurement data. The experience-based knowledge of experts can substitute missing information, which is usually imprecise. The novelty of the present paper is a method based on Monte Carlo (MC) simulation and importance sampling (IS) techniques for integrating uncertain expert knowledge into the system model. Uncertain knowledge about the model parameters is propagated through the system model by MC simulation in the form of a discrete sample, while IS helps to weight the sample elements regarding imprecise knowledge about the outputs in an iterative circle. Thereby, the consistency of expert judgments can be investigated as well. The contributions of this paper include an expert knowledge-based parameter estimation technique and a method for the evaluation of expert judgments according to the estimation results to eliminate incorrect ones. The applicability of the proposed method is introduced through a case study of a Hungarian operating waste separation system. The results verify that the assessments of experts can be efficiently integrated into system models, and their consistency can be evaluated. Full article

This paper aims to detect a target that crosses the baseline connecting the source and the receiver in shallow-water environments, which is a special scenario for a bistatic sonar system. In such a detection scenario, an intense sound wave, known as the direct blast, propagates directly from the source to the receiver without target scattering. This direct blast usually arrives at the receiver simultaneously with the forward scattering signal and exhibits a larger intensity than the signal, posing a significant challenge for target detection. In this paper, a range-domain subspace is constructed by the horizontal distance between the source/target and each element of a horizontal linear array (HLA) when the ranges of environmental parameters are known a priori. Meanwhile, a range-domain subspace detector based on direct blast suppression (RSD-DS) is proposed for forward scattering detection. The source and the target are located at different positions, so the direct blast and the scattered signal are in different range-domain subspaces. By projecting the received data onto the orthogonal complement subspace of the direct blast subspace, the direct blast can be suppressed and the signal that lies outside the direct blast subspace is used for target detection. The simulation results indicate that the proposed RSD-DS exhibits a performance close to the generalized likelihood ratio detector (GLRD) while requiring less prior knowledge of environments (only known are the ranges of the sediment sound speed and the bottom sound speed), and its robustness to environmental uncertainties is better than that of the latter. Moreover, the proposed RSD-DS exhibits better immunity against the direct blast than the GLRD, since it can still work effectively at a signal-to-direct blast ratio (SDR) of −30 dB, while the GLRD stops working in this case. Full article

During a crown generation procedure, dental technicians depend on commercial software to generate a margin line to define the design boundary for the crown. The margin line generation remains a non-reproducible, inconsistent, and challenging procedure. In this work, we propose to generate margin line points on prepared teeth meshes using adaptive point learning inspired by the AdaPointTr model. We extracted ground truth margin lines as point clouds from the prepared teeth and crown bottom meshes. The chamfer distance (CD) and infoCD loss functions were used for training a supervised deep learning model that outputs a margin line as a point cloud. To enhance the generation results, the deep learning model was trained based on three different resolutions of the target margin lines, which were used to back-propagate the losses. Five folds were trained and an ensemble model was constructed. The training and test sets contained 913 and 134 samples, respectively, covering all teeth positions. Intraoral scanning was used to collect all samples. Our post-processing involves removing outlier points based on local point density and principal component analysis (PCA) followed by a spline prediction. Comparing our final spline predictions with the ground truth margin line using CD, we achieved a median distance of 0.137 mm. The median Hausdorff distance was 0.242 mm. We also propose a novel confidence metric for uncertainty quantification of generated margin lines during deployment. The metric was defined based on the percentage of removed outliers during the post-processing stage. The proposed end-to-end framework helps dental professionals in generating and evaluating margin lines consistently. The findings underscore the potential of deep learning to revolutionize the detection and extraction of 3D landmarks, offering personalized and robust methods to meet the increasing demands for precision and efficiency in the medical field. Full article

In social network analysis, entropy quantifies the uncertainty or diversity of opinions, reflecting the complexity of opinion dynamics. To enhance the understanding of how opinions evolve, this study introduces a novel approach to modeling opinion dynamics in social networks by incorporating three-stage cascade information attenuation. Traditional models have often neglected the influence of second- and third-order neighbors and the attenuation of information as it propagates through a network. To correct this oversight, we redefine the interaction weights between individuals, taking into account the distance of opining, bounded confidence, and information attenuation. We propose two models of opinion dynamics using a three-stage cascade mechanism for information transmission, designed for environments with either a single or two subgroups of opinion leaders. These models capture the shifts in opinion distribution and entropy as information propagates and attenuates through the network. Through simulation experiments, we examine the ingredients influencing opinion dynamics. The results demonstrate that an increased presence of opinion leaders, coupled with a higher level of trust from their followers, significantly amplifies their influence. Furthermore, comparative experiments highlight the advantages of our proposed models, including rapid convergence, effective leadership influence, and robustness across different network structures. Full article

Coordinate measuring machines are widely used in the industrial field due to their ease of automation. However, estimating the measurement uncertainty is a delicate task, especially when controlling for deviation, given the large number of factors that influence the measurement. A precise estimate of the uncertainty is crucial to avoid incorrect conformity assessments. The purpose of this study is to control geometrical-form tolerance specifications, taking into consideration their associated uncertainty. A surface fitting model based on the least squares criterion is proposed, allowing one to obtain the variance–covariance matrix by iterative calculation according to the Levenberg–Marquard optimization method. The form deviation is then evaluated following the Geometrical Product Specifications (GPS) Standard, and its associated uncertainty is estimated using the guide to the expression of uncertainty in measurement (GUM) propagation of the uncertainty law. Finally, the conformity assessment is performed based on the measured deviation and its associated uncertainty. Different results for the measurement of straightness, flatness, circularity, roundness, and cylindricity are presented and detailed. This model is thereafter validated by a Monte Carlo simulation, and interlaboratory comparisons of the obtained results were performed, which showed satisfactory outcome. This contribution is of great use to manufacturing companies and metrology laboratories, allowing them to meet the normative guidelines, which stipulates that each measurement result must be accompanied by its associated uncertainty. Full article

The accuracy of data-driven landslide susceptibility prediction depends heavily on the quality of non-landslide samples and the selection of machine-learning algorithms. Current methods rely on artificial prior knowledge to obtain negative samples from landslide-free regions or outside the landslide buffer zones randomly and quickly but often ignore the reliability of non-landslide samples, which will pose a serious risk of including potential landslides and lead to erroneous outcomes in training data. Furthermore, diverse machine-learning models exhibit distinct classification capabilities, and applying a single model can readily result in over-fitting of the dataset and introduce potential uncertainties in predictions. To address these problems, taking Chenxi County, a hilly and mountainous area in southern China, as an example, this research proposes a strategy-coupling optimised sampling with heterogeneous ensemble machine learning to enhance the accuracy of landslide susceptibility prediction. Initially, 21 landslide impact factors were derived from five aspects: geology, hydrology, topography, meteorology, human activities, and geographical environment. Then, these factors were screened through a correlation analysis and collinearity diagnosis. Afterwards, an optimised sampling (OS) method was utilised to select negative samples by fusing the reliability of non-landslide samples and certainty factor values on the basis of the environmental similarity and statistical model. Subsequently, the adopted non-landslide samples and historical landslides were combined to create machine-learning datasets. Finally, baseline models (support vector machine, random forest, and back propagation neural network) and the stacking ensemble model were employed to predict susceptibility. The findings indicated that the OS method, considering the reliability of non-landslide samples, achieved higher-quality negative samples than currently widely used sampling methods. The stacking ensemble machine-learning model outperformed those three baseline models. Notably, the accuracy of the hybrid OS–Stacking model is most promising, up to 97.1%. The integrated strategy significantly improves the prediction of landslide susceptibility and makes it reliable and effective for assessing regional geohazard risk. Full article