Search Results (67)

The field of real estate valuations is multivariate in nature. Each property has different intrinsic attributes that have a bearing on its final value: location, use, purpose, access, the services available to it, etc. The appraiser analyzes all these factors and the current status of other similar properties on the market (comparable assets or units of comparison) subjectively, with no applicable rules or metrics, to obtain the value of the property in question. To model this context of subjectivity, this paper proposes the use of a fuzzy system. The inputs to the fuzzy system designed are the variables considered by the appraiser, and the output is the adjustment coefficient to be applied to the price of each comparable asset to obtain the price of the property to be appraised. To design this model, data have been extracted from actual appraisals conducted by three professional appraisers in the urban center of Santa Cruz de Tenerife (Canary Islands, Spain). The fuzzy system is a decision-helping tool in the real estate sector: appraisers can use it to select the most suitable comparables and to automatically obtain the adjustment coefficients, freeing them from the arduous task of calculating them manually based on the multiple parameters to consider. Finally, an evaluation is presented that demonstrates its applicability. Full article

One of the key elements in real estate appraisal of residential buildings is the usable area. To determine the monetary value of real estate, appraisers in Poland often rely on transaction data registered in the Real Estate Price Register (REPR). However, the REPR may contain meaningful gaps, particularly on information concerning usable areas. This may lead to difficulties in finding suitable comparative properties, resulting in mispricing of the property. To address this problem, we used linear and nonlinear models to estimate the usable area of buildings with multi-pitched roofs. Utilizing widely available data from the Topographic Objects Database (BDOT10k) based on LiDAR technology, we have shown that three parameters (building’s covered area, building’s height, and optionally the number of storeys) are sufficient for a reliable estimate of the usable area of a building. The best linear model, using design data from architectural offices, achieved a fit of 95%, while the best model based on real data of existing buildings in the city of Koszalin, Poland achieved 92% fit. The best nonlinear model achieved slightly better results than the linear model in the case of design data (better fit by approximately 0.2%). In the case of existing buildings in Koszalin, the best fit was at 93%. The proposed method may help property appraisers determine a more accurate estimation of the usable area of comparative buildings in the absence of this information in the REPR. Full article

The possibility of carrying out the cultivation of numerous plant species in vertical farming highlights the need for policy makers to determine the cadastral value of the buildings in which these production activities are carried out. In this regard, estimates of buildings intended to host vertical farming are illustrated according to the procedure established by Italian cadastral legislation, which establishes that the fiscal value of buildings intended for vertical farming must be estimated through their market value. Appraisals is carried out using the direct capitalization method but follow two different approaches. One approach is based on the expertise of the appraiser, who acts by making assessments through subjective and arbitrary choices. The other approach is based on the use of best practices, as indicated by international evaluation standards that follow appropriate methodologies. Our comparison between the two approaches focuses on determining the capitalization rate, which determines the estimated value. The market value estimated using the procedures recognized by the valuation standards appears to be more valid methodologically and more reliable. This is demonstrated by applying yield capitalization to the same income cash flow in both formulations. Additionally, through the identification of the conversion cash flow, useful details on financial flow can be obtained and used to determine the value. The obtained results may be useful for public operators for the purposes of determining the value of assets for tax purposes. More generally, they are also useful from a methodological and application point of view in real estate valuation and support the development of tools for making efficient investment choices. Full article

This study examines whether and through which channels ESG ratings influence key metrics in the real estate industry. Focusing on Switzerland as a case study and concentrating on commercial real estate investors and their income properties, we utilize unique datasets and employ an OLS post-LASSO estimation procedure to identify and quantify the associations between ESG ratings and four key metrics: appraisal-based and transaction-based discount rates, rental incomes, and vacancy rates. Our results demonstrate that ESG ratings maintain a significant association with all four key metrics even after undergoing robustness checks. When dissecting the total ESG rating into its components, the environmental rating stands out as the most significant. While largely dependent on the specific metric being analyzed, the association of social and governance ratings tends to be less pronounced. Delving deeper into individual ESG rating levels, our findings suggest potential signaling effects, as properties with higher ESG ratings demonstrate heightened sensitivity to both types of discount rates and vacancy rates. Overall, our findings deepen the understanding of the association between ESG ratings and real estate markets, illuminating the intersection of sustainability and financial relevance. Full article

Property valuation services using artificial intelligence (AI) have been developed, with more than 20 services available in Japan. However, since their algorithms and training data are not publicly available, the extent of variations in the AI property valuations among these services is not clear. This study focuses on five services and uses a sample of 4295 valuations for 859 condominium units in six popular residential areas in Tokyo. (1) Multiple comparison tests of the AI property valuations among the services are conducted to confirm their statistical significance and to examine the extent of the variations. (2) The business models of each service are compared to examine the factors contributing to these variations. The results showed that the average variation in the AI property valuations was 10.6%, which was larger than the variations observed in traditional property valuations. It was also found that the valuation groups, categorized as high or low, varied based on the business models of the service providers. These results indicate that it is necessary to promote the healthy development of AI property valuation by establishing guidelines, such as requiring the AI property valuation services to ensure fair prices or disclosing their algorithms and data. Full article

The housing market in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, is expanding and with it a need for increased market transparency to guide investors and other stakeholders. The objective of this paper is to evaluate machine learning (ML) methods to appraise real estate in formal and informal housing markets in this nascent market sector. Various advanced ML models are applied with the aim of improving property value estimates in a market with limited access to information. The dataset used included detailed property characteristics and transaction data from both market types. Regression, decision trees, neural networks, and ensemble methods were employed to refine property appraisals across these settings. The findings indicate significant differences between formal and informal market valuations, demonstrating ML’s effectiveness in handling limited data and complex market dynamics. These results emphasise the potential of ML techniques in emerging markets where traditional valuation methods often fail due to the scarcity of transaction data. Full article

In the absence of comparative real estate data in the market segment of the property to be estimated, the appraiser may resort to income capitalization to estimate the market value. Often, however, the choice of which rate to apply is affected by subjective and arbitrary assessments. The estimation result can therefore be inaccurate and rather unclear. However, the Remote Segments Approach (RSA), through appropriate adjustments on the original values, prices, and incomes detected in the remote segments, makes it possible to arrive at an appraisal result consistent with estimative logic and real estate valuation standards. The proposed application illustrates the estimation of the market value of a specialized fruit orchard of avocado, which is to be considered new in relation to other fruit species already present in the reference area. The adjustments required by the RSA are solved with the General Appraisal System (GAS), defining the difference matrix based on relevant characters common to all segments considered. The application is carried out by comparing the segment in which the orchard being estimated falls (subject) with other remote market segments in which prices and incomes constituted by other tree crops are collected. The market value of the subject is derived by making adjustments to the prices and incomes observed in the remote segments of comparison with a comparison function constructed through relevant characters common to the segments considered. The comparison function makes it possible to arrive at the determination of the capitalization rate to be used in estimating the value of the fruit orchard by income approach. While it is based on the comparison of segments, the approach followed allows for a value judgment consistent with the estimation comparison and capable of providing a solution less conditioned by the appraiser’s expertise in the presence of particularly pronounced limiting conditions. Full article

This study addresses the scarcity of empirical findings on the determinants of discount rates in the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method, filling a crucial gap in the existing literature and enhancing the understanding of the valuation process from the perspectives of key stakeholders. Leveraging a unique dataset comprising market transactions enriched with expert-based valuation information, the study conducts a comprehensive counterfactual analysis of the fundamental determinants influencing both appraisal-based and transaction-based discount rates. The results reveal that appraisers and investors attribute different levels of importance to object-specific, locational, and macroeconomic variables. A type-specific analysis further reveals that locational and macroeconomic variables exert a greater influence on discount rates in the residential real estate segment. In contrast, object-specific characteristics hold significantly higher importance in explaining discount rates in the commercial real estate segment. Full article

Real estate mass appraisal is increasingly gaining popularity as a critical issue, reflecting its growing importance and widespread adoption in economic spheres. And data-driven machine learning methods have made new contributions to enhancing the accuracy and intelligence level of mass appraisal. This study employs python web scraping technology to collect raw data on second-hand house transactions spanning from January 2015 to June 2023 in China. Through a series of data processing procedures, including feature indicator acquisition, the removal of irrelevant sample cases, feature indicator quantification, the handling of missing and outlier values, and normalization, a dataset suitable for direct use by mass appraisal models is constructed. A dynamic neural network model composed of three cascaded sub-models is designed, and the optimal parameter combination for model training is identified using grid searching. The appraisal results demonstrate the reliability of the dynamic neural network model proposed in this study, which is applicable to real estate mass appraisal. A comparison with the common methods indicates that the proposed model exhibits a superior performance in real estate mass appraisal. Full article

In the face of pressing global challenges such as climate change, socioeconomic inequalities, and rapid urbanization, ensuring sustainable development in the regions has become essential. The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted how vulnerable cities are to unforeseen crises and underscored the urgent need for proactive urban planning strategies capable of navigating dynamic and unpredictable futures. In this context, the use of geographic information systems (GIS) offers researchers and decision makers a distinct advantage in the study of spatial data and enables the comprehensive study of spatial and temporal patterns in various disciplines, including real estate valuation. Central to the integration of modern technology into real estate valuation is the need to mitigate the inherent subjectivity of traditional valuation methods while increasing efficiency through the use of mass appraisal techniques. This study draws on extensive academic literature comprising 103 research articles published between 1993 and January 2024 to shed light on the multifaceted application of GISs in real estate valuation. In particular, three main areas are addressed: (1) hedonic models, (2) artificial intelligence (AI), and mathematical appraisal models. This synthesis emphasizes the interdependence of numerous societal challenges and highlights the need for interdisciplinary collaboration to address them effectively. In addition, this study provides a repertoire of methodologies that underscores the potential of advanced technologies, including artificial intelligence, GISs, and satellite imagery, to improve the subjectivity of traditional valuation approaches and thereby promote greater accuracy and productivity in real estate valuation. By integrating GISs into real estate valuation methodologies, stakeholders can navigate the complexity of urban landscapes with greater precision and promote equitable valuation practices that are conducive to sustainable urban development. Full article

Spatialization and analysis of the gross domestic product of second and tertiary industries (GDP₂₃) can effectively depict the socioeconomic status of regional development. However, existing studies mainly conduct GDP spatialization using nighttime light data; few studies specifically concentrated on the spatialization and analysis of GDP₂₃ in a built-up area by combining multi-source remote sensing images. In this study, the NPP-VIIRS-like dataset and Sentinel-2 multi-spectral remote sensing images in six years were combined to precisely spatialize and analyze the variation patterns of the GDP₂₃ in the built-up area of Zibo city, China. Sentinel-2 images and the random forest (RF) classification method based on PIE-Engine cloud platform were employed to extract built-up areas, in which the NPP-VIIRS-like dataset and comprehensive nighttime light index were used to indicate the nighttime light magnitudes to construct models to spatialize GDP₂₃ and analyze their change patterns during the study period. The results found that (1) the RF classification method can accurately extract the built-up area with an overall accuracy higher than 0.90; the change patterns of built-up areas varied among districts and counties, with Yiyuan county being the only administrative region with an annual expansion rate of more than 1%. (2) The comprehensive nighttime light index is a viable indicator of GDP₂₃ in the built-up area; the fitted model exhibited an R² value of 0.82, and the overall relative errors of simulated GDP₂₃ and statistical GDP₂₃ were below 1%. (3) The year 2018 marked a significant turning point in the trajectory of GDP₂₃ development in the study area; in 2018, Zhoucun district had the largest decrease in GDP₂₃ at −52.36%. (4) GDP₂₃ gradation results found that Zhangdian district exhibited the highest proportion of high GDP₂₃ (>9%), while the proportions of low GDP₂₃ regions in the remaining seven districts and counties all exceeded 60%. The innovation of this study is that the GDP₂₃ in built-up areas were first precisely spatialized and analyzed using the NPP-VIIRS-like dataset and Sentinel-2 images. The findings of this study can serve as references for formulating improved city planning strategies and sustainable development policies. Full article

The profound transformations of traditional rural landscapes have heightened attention towards the recovery and valorisation of their buildings, often abandoned, to accommodate new landscape usage needs. This aligns with the principles of sustainable landscape management. However, knowledge of the rural real estate market remains largely unexplored. This research aims to define and examine the key features influencing the purchase of rural buildings, for shedding light on their market. The objective is to provide useful new insight to the property appraisers and real estate agents involved in the sale of traditional rural buildings, even if in conditions of degradation or abandonment and in traditional landscape contexts. Furthermore, these results could serve as a valuable resource for policymakers, enabling them to indirectly evaluate the impacts of urban and landscape policies on buyers’ preferences regarding key features of rural properties. The research focused on the ‘trulli’, traditional buildings located in the Valle d’Itria (Puglia, Southern Italy). First, a detailed market analysis was carried out with the support of local real estate experts, to survey the transactions of trulli and identify the features influencing their purchase. Second, the obtained dataset was analysed through network analysis, which enabled us to explore the role and importance assigned by buyers to the identified features. The results highlighted that the quality of the landscape where trulli are located changed the buyers’ viewpoint on the purchase features. In greater detail, price, area, potable water accessibility and level of maintenance of trulli were the most crucial features, particularly in high and medium landscape value zones, compatible with touristic and recreational activities. On the other hand, the annex agricultural surface covered a central function in low landscape value zone for possible agricultural uses. Full article

In real estate valuation using the Hedonic Price Model (HPM) estimated via Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression, subjectivity and measurement errors in the independent variables violate the Gauss–Markov theorem assumption of a non-random coefficient matrix, leading to biased parameter estimates and incorrect precision assessments. In this contribution, the Errors-in-Variables model equipped with Total Least Squares (TLS) estimation is proposed to address these issues. It fully considers random errors in both dependent and independent variables. An iterative algorithm is provided, and posterior accuracy estimates are provided to validate its effectiveness. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that TLS provides more accurate solutions than OLS, significantly improving the root mean square error by over 70%. Empirical experiments on datasets from Boston and Wuhan further confirm the superior performance of TLS, which consistently yields a higher coefficient of determination and a lower posterior variance factor, which shows its more substantial explanatory power for the data. Moreover, TLS shows comparable or slightly superior performance in terms of prediction accuracy. These results make it a compelling and practical method to enhance the HPM. Full article

The policy objectives of affordable housing programs in China are two-fold: on the one hand, they are designed to assist low- and moderate-income families and reduce inequality; on the other hand, they are intended to lower commodity housing prices. However, the effects of affordable housing land on housing prices, particularly the between-city variation and the mechanisms behind the market effects, have not been sufficiently examined, making it difficult to evaluate the housing policy and improve it accordingly. In this study, we address these gaps by using a prefecture-level panel dataset covering 2009–2020, obtained from national land and housing transaction information platforms. We use a threshold model to investigate the threshold effect of population size and a mediating model to uncover the channels through which the supply of affordable housing land affects housing prices. The results confirm that the affordable housing land supply can have a beneficial influence in terms of slowing down the increase in housing prices. The population size plays a significant role in explaining the between-city market effect variations. In cities with a population greater than 10.78 million, increasing the supply of affordable housing land would cause the housing prices to increase. Meanwhile, in cities with smaller populations, increasing the supply of affordable housing land could lower the housing prices. The underlying mechanisms of the market effects vary across cities with different population sizes. Although affordable housing land crowds out commodity housing land in all cities, housing demand diversion only exists in cities with a smaller population. At present, China is experimenting with city-specific housing policies; our findings imply that decision makers should explore additional policy options, besides building on incremental construction land, in order to make housing more affordable in supercities in China. Full article

Regarding environmental sustainability and market pricing, the energy class is an increasingly more decisive characteristic in the real estate sector. For this reason, a great deal of attention is now devoted to exploring new technologies, energy consumption forecasting tools, intelligent platforms, site management devices, optimised procedures, software, and guidelines. New investments and smart possibilities are currently the object of different research in energy efficiency in building stocks to reach widespread ZEB standards as soon as possible. In this light, this work focuses on analysing 13 cities in Northern Italy to understand the impact of energy class on market values. An extensive data-mining process collects information about 13,093 properties in Lombardia, Piemonte, Emilia Romagna, Friuli Venezia-Giulia, Veneto, and Trentino alto Adige. Then, a feature importance analysis and a machine learning forecasting tool help understand the influence of energy class on market prices today. Full article