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Search Results (496)

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16 pages, 1799 KiB  
Article
Integrating CT Radiomics and Clinical Features to Optimize TACE Technique Decision-Making in Hepatocellular Carcinoma
by Max Masthoff, Maximilian Irle, Daniel Kaldewey, Florian Rennebaum, Haluk Morgül, Gesa Helen Pöhler, Jonel Trebicka, Moritz Wildgruber, Michael Köhler and Philipp Schindler
Cancers 2025, 17(5), 893; https://doi.org/10.3390/cancers17050893 - 5 Mar 2025
Viewed by 205
Abstract
Background/Objectives: To develop a decision framework integrating computed tomography (CT) radiomics and clinical factors to guide the selection of transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) technique for optimizing treatment response in non-resectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Methods: A retrospective analysis was performed on 151 patients [33 conventional [...] Read more.
Background/Objectives: To develop a decision framework integrating computed tomography (CT) radiomics and clinical factors to guide the selection of transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) technique for optimizing treatment response in non-resectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Methods: A retrospective analysis was performed on 151 patients [33 conventional TACE (cTACE), 69 drug-eluting bead TACE (DEB-TACE), 49 degradable starch microsphere TACE (DSM-TACE)] who underwent TACE for HCC at a single tertiary center. Pre-TACE contrast-enhanced CT images were used to extract radiomic features of the TACE-treated liver tumor volume. Patient clinical and laboratory data were combined with radiomics-derived predictors in an elastic net regularized logistic regression model to identify independent factors associated with early response at 4–6 weeks post-TACE. Predicted response probabilities under each TACE technique were compared with the actual techniques performed. Results: Elastic net modeling identified three independent predictors of response: radiomic feature “Contrast” (OR = 5.80), BCLC stage B (OR = 0.92), and viral hepatitis etiology (OR = 0.74). Interaction models indicated that the relative benefit of each TACE technique depended on the identified patient-specific predictors. Model-based recommendations differed from the actual treatment selected in 66.2% of cases, suggesting potential for improved patient–technique matching. Conclusions: Integrating CT radiomics with clinical variables may help identify the optimal TACE technique for individual HCC patients. This approach holds promise for a more personalized therapy selection and improved response rates beyond standard clinical decision-making. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Novel Approaches and Advances in Interventional Oncology)
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<p>Flowchart of patient selection. Abbreviations: cTACE, conventional transarterial chemoembolization; DEB-TACE, drug-eluting bead transarterial chemoembolization; DSM-TACE, degradable starch microsphere transarterial chemoembolization; HCC, hepatocellular carcinoma; TACE, transarterial chemoembolization.</p>
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<p>Schematic illustration of the mRECIST criteria for response assessment after TACE in HCC. The arterial phase hyper-enhancing part of the tumor is shown in white. Adapted to Dioguardi Burgio et al. [<a href="#B19-cancers-17-00893" class="html-bibr">19</a>]. Abbreviations: HCC, hepatocellular carcinoma; mRECIST, Modified Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors; TACE, transarterial chemoembolization.</p>
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<p>Scheme of imaging and radiomics analysis workflow. After baseline segmentation of HCC was subsequently treated with TACE (green segmentation), radiomic features including shape, intensity, and texture were extracted and integrated with clinical data. Feature selection and model building were performed using elastic net regression. Bar charts were then generated to illustrate predicted probabilities across TACE techniques for hypothetical or observed patient profiles. Abbreviations: HCC, hepatocellular carcinoma; TACE, transarterial chemoembolization.</p>
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<p>Multivariable analysis of variables selected by elastic net regularized logistic regression for predicting TACE response. Abbreviations: BCLC, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer staging.</p>
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<p>For demonstration purposes, four patients with different values of the identified predictors were selected. The different values of the predictors etiology of liver disease, BCLC stage, and the radiomic feature “Contrast” result in different prediction probabilities of treatment response depending on the TACE technique to be selected. Abbreviations: BCLC, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer staging; cTACE, conventional transarterial chemoembolization; DEB, drug-eluting bead; DSM, degradable starch microsphere; NASH, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis; TACE, transarterial chemoembolization.</p>
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<p>A confusion matrix (<b>A</b>) and a Sankey diagram (<b>B</b>) summarize the frequency and nature of discrepancies between model-based recommended and performed TACE techniques. Abbreviations: cTACE, conventional transarterial chemoembolization; DEB, drug-eluting bead; DSM, degradable starch microsphere; TACE, transarterial chemoembolization.</p>
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23 pages, 6296 KiB  
Article
Dynamic Patch-Based Sample Generation for Pulmonary Nodule Segmentation in Low-Dose CT Scans Using 3D Residual Networks for Lung Cancer Screening
by Ioannis D. Marinakis, Konstantinos Karampidis, Giorgos Papadourakis and Mostefa Kara
Appl. Biosci. 2025, 4(1), 14; https://doi.org/10.3390/applbiosci4010014 - 5 Mar 2025
Viewed by 126
Abstract
Lung cancer is by far the leading cause of cancer death among both men and women, making up almost 25% of all cancer deaths Each year, more people die of lung cancer than colon, breast, and prostate cancer combined. The early detection of [...] Read more.
Lung cancer is by far the leading cause of cancer death among both men and women, making up almost 25% of all cancer deaths Each year, more people die of lung cancer than colon, breast, and prostate cancer combined. The early detection of lung cancer is critical for improving patient outcomes, and automation through advanced image analysis techniques can significantly assist radiologists. This paper presents the development and evaluation of a computer-aided diagnostic system for lung cancer screening, focusing on pulmonary nodule segmentation in low-dose CT images, by employing HighRes3DNet. HighRes3DNet is a specialized 3D convolutional neural network (CNN) architecture based on ResNet principles which uses residual connections to efficiently learn complex spatial features from 3D volumetric data. To address the challenges of processing large CT volumes, an efficient patch-based extraction pipeline was developed. This method dynamically extracts 3D patches during training with a probabilistic approach, prioritizing patches likely to contain nodules while maintaining diversity. Data augmentation techniques, including random flips, affine transformations, elastic deformations, and swaps, were applied in the 3D space to enhance the robustness of the training process and mitigate overfitting. Using a public low-dose CT dataset, this approach achieved a Dice coefficient of 82.65% on the testing set for 3D nodule segmentation, demonstrating precise and reliable predictions. The findings highlight the potential of this system to enhance efficiency and accuracy in lung cancer screening, providing a valuable tool to support radiologists in clinical decision-making. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Neural Networks and Deep Learning for Biosciences)
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<p>Preprocessed data sample.</p>
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<p>Annotations of nodule and the consensus mask.</p>
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<p>LDCT preprocessing pipeline.</p>
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<p>Patch extraction pipeline.</p>
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<p>Segmentation predictions I. This figure showcases the segmentation results for pulmonary nodules in low-dose CT scans for two different patients. (<b>a</b>) Axial view of a CT slice from the testing set, showing a pulmonary nodule outlined by the ground truth mask (left top) and the corresponding predicted mask generated by the segmentation model (right top). Below each axial view, the 3D representation of the ground truth mask (left bottom) and the predicted mask (right bottom) is displayed, highlighting the nodule across all CT slices. (<b>b</b>) Similar visualizations for a second testing sample, presenting the ground truth and model predictions for two nodules. These panels illustrate the model’s performance in accurately segmenting nodules in varying patient data.</p>
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<p>Segmentation underperforming ground glass opacity (GGO) case.</p>
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<p>LIDC-IDRI slice spacing histogram.</p>
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<p>LIDC-IDRI scans pixel spacing ranges and counts.</p>
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<p>Label distribution of nodule characteristics in LIDC-IDRI database.</p>
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<p>Nodule segmentation predictions (II).</p>
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<p>Nodule segmentation predictions (III).</p>
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<p>Nodule segmentation predictions (IV).</p>
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<p>Distribution of nodule characteristics in the testing set. The <span class="html-italic">X</span>-axis illustrates the annotation label, while the <span class="html-italic">Y</span>-axis illustrates the number of annotations.</p>
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<p>Nodule diameter sizes histogram. The <span class="html-italic">X</span>-axis illustrates the diameter groups while the <span class="html-italic">Y</span>-axis illustrates the number of annotations.</p>
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22 pages, 372 KiB  
Article
Efficient Post-Shrinkage Estimation Strategies in High-Dimensional Cox’s Proportional Hazards Models
by Syed Ejaz Ahmed, Reza Arabi Belaghi and Abdulkhadir Ahmed Hussein
Entropy 2025, 27(3), 254; https://doi.org/10.3390/e27030254 - 28 Feb 2025
Viewed by 173
Abstract
Regularization methods such as LASSO, adaptive LASSO, Elastic-Net, and SCAD are widely employed for variable selection in statistical modeling. However, these methods primarily focus on variables with strong effects while often overlooking weaker signals, potentially leading to biased parameter estimates. To address this [...] Read more.
Regularization methods such as LASSO, adaptive LASSO, Elastic-Net, and SCAD are widely employed for variable selection in statistical modeling. However, these methods primarily focus on variables with strong effects while often overlooking weaker signals, potentially leading to biased parameter estimates. To address this limitation, Gao, Ahmed, and Feng (2017) introduced a corrected shrinkage estimator that incorporates both weak and strong signals, though their results were confined to linear models. The applicability of such approaches to survival data remains unclear, despite the prevalence of survival regression involving both strong and weak effects in biomedical research. To bridge this gap, we propose a novel class of post-selection shrinkage estimators tailored to the Cox model framework. We establish the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators and demonstrate their potential to enhance estimation and prediction accuracy through simulations that explicitly incorporate weak signals. Finally, we validate the practical utility of our approach by applying it to two real-world datasets, showcasing its advantages over existing methods. Full article
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<p>Relative mean squared error (RMSE) of the proposed estimators compared to LASSO for different <span class="html-italic">n</span> and <span class="html-italic">p</span>.</p>
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<p>Relative mean squared error (RMSE) of the proposed estimators compared to Elastic Net for different <span class="html-italic">n</span> and <span class="html-italic">p</span>.</p>
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21 pages, 1359 KiB  
Article
Modelling the Performance of Photovoltaic Systems and Studying the Soiling Effects: Insights Based on Field Data of Environmental Factors of Solar Panel Systems
by Ali Al Humairi, Zuhair A. Al Hemyari, Hayat El Asri and Peter Jung
Appl. Syst. Innov. 2025, 8(1), 25; https://doi.org/10.3390/asi8010025 - 18 Feb 2025
Viewed by 381
Abstract
This paper focuses on the modeling of the performance of photovoltaic systems based on advanced techniques. This research leverages real-world data from the Shams Solar Facility at the German University of Technology in Oman to explore the application of Linear, Lasso, Ridge, and [...] Read more.
This paper focuses on the modeling of the performance of photovoltaic systems based on advanced techniques. This research leverages real-world data from the Shams Solar Facility at the German University of Technology in Oman to explore the application of Linear, Lasso, Ridge, and Elastic Net Regressions to predict and optimize the performance of photovoltaic systems. A comprehensive dataset of 36,851 observations of environmental and operational conditions forms the basis of the analysis. The research identifies the strengths and limitations of these modeling techniques for an accurate forecast of energy output under various scenarios. The comparative analysis highlights the precision and reliability of each regression method and offers actionable insights into their practical implementation. The findings highlight the importance of more sophisticated modeling approaches in increasing the knowledge of photovoltaic system dynamics and optimizing their performance. This research facilitates the advancement in solar energy systems and provides critical recommendations for the improvement in efficiency and reliability of photovoltaic installations under different geographic and climatic settings. Full article
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<p>Solar Facility at GUtech.</p>
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<p>Irradiance and temperature sensor of the Solar Facility at GUtech.</p>
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16 pages, 2334 KiB  
Article
A Multi-Input Residual Network for Non-Destructive Prediction of Wood Mechanical Properties
by Jingchao Ma, Zhufang Kuang, Yixuan Fang and Jiahui Huang
Forests 2025, 16(2), 355; https://doi.org/10.3390/f16020355 - 16 Feb 2025
Viewed by 440
Abstract
Modulus of elasticity (MOE) and modulus of rupture (MOR) are crucial indicators for assessing the application value of wood. However, traditional physical testing methods for the mechanical properties of wood are typically destructive, costly, and time-consuming. To efficiently assess these properties, this study [...] Read more.
Modulus of elasticity (MOE) and modulus of rupture (MOR) are crucial indicators for assessing the application value of wood. However, traditional physical testing methods for the mechanical properties of wood are typically destructive, costly, and time-consuming. To efficiently assess these properties, this study proposes a multi-input residual network (MIRN) model, which integrates microscopic images of wood with physical density data and leverages deep learning technology for rapid and accurate predictions. By using larger convolution kernels to enhance the receptive field, the model captures fine microstructural features in the images. Batch normalization layers were removed from the ResNet architecture to reduce the number of parameters and improve training stability. Shortcut connections were utilized to enable deeper network architectures and address the vanishing gradient problem. Two types of residual blocks, convolutional block and identity block, were defined based on input dimensional changes. The MIRN method, based on multi-input residual networks, is proposed for non-destructive testing of wood mechanical properties. The experimental results show that MIRN outperforms convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and ResNet-50 in predicting MOE and MOR, with an R2 of 0.95 for MOE and RMSE reduced to 46.88, as well as an R2 of 0.85 for MOR and an RMSE of 0.44. Thus, this method offers an efficient and cost-effective tool for wood processing and quality control. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Wood Science and Forest Products)
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<p>Workflow of sample preparation and data collection.</p>
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<p>Cross-sectional images of the sample dataset.</p>
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<p>Architecture of the multi-input residual network (MIRN).</p>
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<p>Comparative analysis of convergence across different networks. CNN: convolutional neural network; SIRN: single-input residual network; MICNN: Multi-Input Convolutional Neural Network; MIRN: multi-input residual network.</p>
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<p>Accuracy of different models in predicting sample MOE and MOR; (<b>a</b>–<b>f</b>) MOE prediction; (<b>g</b>–<b>l</b>) MOR prediction; The black dots represent training set sample points, while the red dots represent test set sample points.</p>
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12 pages, 823 KiB  
Article
Dynamic Arterial Elastance as a Predictor of Intraoperative Fluid Responsiveness in Elderly Patient over 70 Years of Age Undergoing Spine Surgery in the Prone Position Under General Anesthesia: A Validation Study
by Eun Jung Oh, Eun Ah Cho, Joohyun Jun, Sung Hyun Lee, Seunghyeon Lee and Jin Hee Ahn
J. Clin. Med. 2025, 14(4), 1247; https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm14041247 - 13 Feb 2025
Viewed by 462
Abstract
Background: Optimizing fluid therapy is critical for maintaining hemodynamic stability in elderly patients undergoing major surgeries. Dynamic arterial elastance (Eadyn), defined as the ratio of pulse pressure variation (PPV) to stroke volume variation (SVV), has been proposed as a predictor of fluid [...] Read more.
Background: Optimizing fluid therapy is critical for maintaining hemodynamic stability in elderly patients undergoing major surgeries. Dynamic arterial elastance (Eadyn), defined as the ratio of pulse pressure variation (PPV) to stroke volume variation (SVV), has been proposed as a predictor of fluid responsiveness, especially in challenging conditions like prone-positioned spine surgery under general anesthesia. Methods: Hemodynamic parameters were measured before and after fluid loading with 500 mL of crystalloid solution. Patients were classified as responders or non-responders based on a ≥15% increase in mean arterial pressure (MAP) post-fluid administration. Predictive performance of these parameters was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Results: Of the 37 patients, 15 were classified as responders and 22 as non-responders. Eadyn demonstrated poor predictive performance (AUC = 0.508). In contrast, SVV (AUC = 0.808), PPV (AUC = 0.738), and C (AUC = 0.741) exhibited moderate to high predictive ability. Responders exhibited significantly higher baseline SVV, PPV, and net arterial compliance compared to non-responders. Conclusions: Dynamic arterial elastance (Eadyn) showed limited predictive ability for fluid responsiveness in elderly patients undergoing spine surgery in the prone position. In contrast, stroke volume variation (SVV), pulse pressure variation (PPV), and net arterial compliance (C) demonstrated superior reliability, with SVV emerging as the most accurate predictor. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Anesthesiology)
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<p>Individual values in responder (<span class="html-italic">n</span> = 15) and non-responders (<span class="html-italic">n</span> = 22) of variations MAP after fluid loading.</p>
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<p>Comparison of the distribution of baseline arterial tone parameters between responders and non-responders at pre-loading phase. (<b>a</b>) Eadyn, dynamic arterial elastance; (<b>b</b>) Ea, effective arterial elastance; (<b>c</b>) C, net arterial compliance; (<b>d</b>) SVR, systemic vascular resistance; (<b>e</b>) SVV, stroke volume variation; (<b>f</b>) PPV, pulse pressure variation). Asterisk signs (*) indicate statistically significant differences between responders and non-responders for each variable. The orange square represents the median, while the green bar indicates the 95% confidence interval (CI).</p>
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<p>Comparison of receiver operating characteristics curves regarding the ability of studied arterial tone parameters to discriminate MAP responder patients (MAP increase ≥ 15%) and MAP non-responder patients after volume loading.</p>
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17 pages, 2027 KiB  
Article
Comparison of the Effectiveness of Artificial Neural Networks and Elastic Net Regression in Surface Runoff Modeling
by Jacek Dawidowicz and Rafał Buczyński
Water 2025, 17(3), 405; https://doi.org/10.3390/w17030405 - 1 Feb 2025
Viewed by 496
Abstract
This study compares Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Elastic Net regression for predicting surface runoff in urban stormwater catchments. Both models were trained on a data set derived from the Stormwater Management Model that included parameters such as imperviousness, flow path width, slope, [...] Read more.
This study compares Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Elastic Net regression for predicting surface runoff in urban stormwater catchments. Both models were trained on a data set derived from the Stormwater Management Model that included parameters such as imperviousness, flow path width, slope, Manning coefficients, and depression storage. ANN exhibited greater predictive accuracy and stability, especially when modeling nonlinear hydrologic interactions, while Elastic Net offered faster inference and clearer interpretability, but showed reduced accuracy in low-flow conditions. Validation on real-world data revealed the sensitivity of the models to scenarios not fully represented during training. Despite higher computational demands, the ANN proved more adaptable, while the more resource-efficient Elastic Net remains suitable for time-critical or large-scale applications. These findings provide practical insights for urban water resource management, indicating when each approach can be most effectively used in flood risk assessment and stormwater infrastructure planning. Full article
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<p>Dependence of runoff on subcatchment properties: (<b>a</b>) Dependence of runoff on subcatchment width; (<b>b</b>) Dependence of runoff on subcatchment imperviousness; (<b>c</b>) Dependence of runoff on subcatchment slope; (<b>d</b>) Dependence of runoff on subcatchment N-Imperv; (<b>e</b>) Dependence of runoff on subcatchment N-Perv; (<b>f</b>) Dependence of runoff on subcatchment D-Imperv; (<b>g</b>) Dependence of runoff on subcatchment D-Perv; (<b>h</b>) Dependence of runoff on subcatchment PctZero.</p>
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<p>Dependence of runoff on subcatchment properties: (<b>a</b>) Dependence of runoff on subcatchment width; (<b>b</b>) Dependence of runoff on subcatchment imperviousness; (<b>c</b>) Dependence of runoff on subcatchment slope; (<b>d</b>) Dependence of runoff on subcatchment N-Imperv; (<b>e</b>) Dependence of runoff on subcatchment N-Perv; (<b>f</b>) Dependence of runoff on subcatchment D-Imperv; (<b>g</b>) Dependence of runoff on subcatchment D-Perv; (<b>h</b>) Dependence of runoff on subcatchment PctZero.</p>
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<p>Comparison of flow forecasting accuracy by ANN and Elastic Net models with test data: (<b>a</b>) ANN model. Points represent actual data versus predicted values. The regression line represents a perfect fit. The ANN model achieves high prediction accuracy (MSE = 21.257, R<sup>2</sup> = 0.997); (<b>b</b>) Elastic Net model. Points represent actual data versus predicted values. The regression line represents a perfect fit. The Elastic Net model has significant prediction error, especially at low flows (MSE = 340.134, R<sup>2</sup> = 0.953).</p>
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<p>Statistical analysis of the error distribution for the ANN and Elastic Net models: (<b>a</b>) ANN model. The mean error is 0.08 m<sup>3</sup>/s with a standard deviation of 1.51 m<sup>3</sup>/s; 90% of the errors are between −2.13 and 2.78 m<sup>3</sup>/s. The median error is −0.03 m<sup>3</sup>/s. (<b>b</b>) Elastic Net model. The mean error is 0.08 m<sup>3</sup>/s with a standard deviation of 18.44 m<sup>3</sup>/s; 90% of the errors range from −24.23 to 16.10 m<sup>3</sup>/s. The median error is 3.80 m<sup>3</sup>/s.</p>
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<p>Analysis of the error difference between the ANN and Elastic Net models: (<b>a</b>) Histogram of absolute error differences (m<sup>3</sup>/s). The red line at 17.36 m<sup>3</sup>/s indicates the 90th percentile threshold. (<b>b</b>) Scatter plot highlighting cases below or above the threshold. Approximately 10% of the differences exceed 17.36 m<sup>3</sup>/s, revealing conditions under which the two models diverge considerably.</p>
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25 pages, 1642 KiB  
Article
Forecasting Follies: Machine Learning from Human Errors
by Li Sun and Yongchen Zhao
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2025, 18(2), 60; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm18020060 - 28 Jan 2025
Viewed by 544
Abstract
Reliable inflation forecasts are essential for both business operations and macroeconomic policy making. This study explores the potential of using machine learning (ML) techniques to improve the accuracy of human forecasts of inflation. Specifically, we develop and examine ML-centered forecast adjustment procedures where [...] Read more.
Reliable inflation forecasts are essential for both business operations and macroeconomic policy making. This study explores the potential of using machine learning (ML) techniques to improve the accuracy of human forecasts of inflation. Specifically, we develop and examine ML-centered forecast adjustment procedures where advanced ML techniques are employed to predict and thus mitigate the errors of human forecasts, akin to how an AI-powered spell and grammar checker helps to prevent mistakes in human writing. Our empirical exercises demonstrate the benefits of several popular ML techniques, such as the elastic net, LASSO, and ridge regressions, and provide evidence of their ability to improve both our own benchmark inflation forecasts and those reported by the frequent participants in the US Survey of Professional Forecasters. The forecast adjustment procedures proposed in this paper are conceptually appealing, widely applicable, and empirically effective in reducing forecast bias and improving forecast accuracy. Full article
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<p>Comparison of the first and the latest vintage of the actual values. This figure shows the time series of the actual values, comparing the latest vintage with the first vintage.</p>
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<p>Patterns of participation of SPF panelists. This figure compares the participation patterns of the individual SPF panelists. Each level on the vertical axis represents one forecaster, the ID number of whom is labeled. Each icon in the figure shows the number of non-missing forecasts reported by a forecaster.</p>
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<p>In-sample forecast accuracy improvements. Based on the in-sample forecasting exercises, this figure compares the improvements in forecast accuracy across forecasters, forecast evaluation metrics, and forecasting procedures. Each icon represents one forecaster. Different types of icons correspond to different forecast horizons, as depicted in the legend. Icons in gray/black represent the cases where the change in forecast accuracy is statistically insignificant/significant at the 10% level according to the DM test. In the top 2 plots, improvement in forecast accuracy is measured using the relative MAE. In the bottom 2 plots, the relative RMSE is used. The horizontal axis shows the accuracy (MAE in the top 2 plots and RMSE in the bottom 2 plots) of the human forecasts. A dotted horizontal line is added where applicable, crossing the value of 1 on the vertical axis. The solid line shows the linear fit calculated using data from all horizons. Light gray shading indicates regions where all icons represent improvements, i.e., an increase in forecast accuracy.</p>
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<p>Out-of-sample forecast accuracy improvements. Based on the out-of-sample forecasting exercises, this figure compares the improvements in forecast accuracy across forecasters, forecast evaluation metrics, and forecasting procedures. Each icon represents one forecaster. Different types of icons correspond to different forecast horizons, as depicted in the legend. Icons in gray/black represent the cases where the change in forecast accuracy is statistically insignificant/significant at the 10% level according to the DM test. In the top 2 plots, improvement in forecast accuracy is measured using the relative MAE. In the bottom 2 plots, the relative RMSE is used. The horizontal axis shows the accuracy (MAE in the top 2 plots and RMSE in the bottom 2 plots) of the human forecasts. A dotted horizontal line is added where applicable, crossing the value of 1 on the vertical axis. The solid line shows the linear fit calculated using data from all horizons. Light gray shading indicates regions where all icons represent improvements, i.e., an increase in forecast accuracy.</p>
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<p>Out-of-sample forecast bias reductions. Based on the out-of-sample forecasting exercises, this figure compares the reductions in forecast bias across forecasters and forecasting procedures. Each icon represents one forecaster. Different types of icons correspond to different forecast horizons, as depicted in the legend. The horizontal axis shows the bias of the human forecasts, while the vertical axis shows the bias of the adjusted forecasts. Dotted lines are added where applicable, crossing the value of 0 on the vertical/horizontal axis. Light gray shading indicates regions where all icons represent improvements, i.e., a reduction in the magnitude of forecast bias.</p>
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<p>Out-of-sample forecast accuracy improvements—year by year. Based on the out-of-sample forecasting exercises, this figure compares the improvements in forecast accuracy across forecasters and forecasting procedures. Each icon represents the relative RMSE of the forecasts reported by one forecaster for 1 year. Different types of icons correspond to different amounts of improvements, as depicted in the legend. From top to bottom, the plots correspond to forecast horizons 0, 2, and 4. The plots on the left report the results from the LASSO models, and those on the right report the results from the ridge regressions.</p>
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<p>Out-of-sample forecast comparison for an individual forecaster. Based on the out-of-sample forecasting exercises, this figure compares the forecasts reported by an individual forecaster and the forecasts this individual could have reported had the adjustments been made using the results of the LASSO models. The solid line shows the actual values, and the dashed line shows the human forecasts as reported to the survey. The adjusted forecasts that improved upon the human forecasts are represented by solid black dots, while those that underperformed are represented by hollow circles. The set of adjusted forecasts represents a statistically significant improvement in forecast accuracy according to the DM test at a level of 0.1%.</p>
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15 pages, 2670 KiB  
Article
Prediction Model for Cutterhead Rotation Speed Based on Dimensional Analysis and Elastic Net Regression
by Junsheng Liu, Feng Liang, Kai Wei and Changqun Zuo
Appl. Sci. 2025, 15(3), 1298; https://doi.org/10.3390/app15031298 - 27 Jan 2025
Viewed by 562
Abstract
The development and maturation of TBM (tunnel boring machine) technology have significantly improved the accuracy and richness of excavation data, driving advancements in intelligent tunneling research. However, challenges remain in managing data noise and parameter coupling, limiting the interpretability of traditional machine learning [...] Read more.
The development and maturation of TBM (tunnel boring machine) technology have significantly improved the accuracy and richness of excavation data, driving advancements in intelligent tunneling research. However, challenges remain in managing data noise and parameter coupling, limiting the interpretability of traditional machine learning models regarding TBM parameter relationships. This study proposes a cutterhead rotation speed prediction model based on dimensional analysis. By utilizing boxplot methods and low-pass filtering techniques, excavation data were preprocessed to select appropriate operational and mechanical parameters. A dimensionless model was established and integrated with elastic net regression to quantify parameters. Using TBM cluster data from a water diversion tunnel project in Xinjiang, the accuracy and generalizability of the model were validated. Results indicate that the proposed model achieves high prediction accuracy, effectively capturing trends in cutterhead rotation speed while demonstrating strong generalizability. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Tunnel and Underground Engineering: Recent Advances and Challenges)
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<p>Dimensional analysis modeling workflow.</p>
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<p>Raw torque line chart.</p>
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<p>Line chart highlighting data outliers.</p>
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<p>Comparison of data before and after boxplot outlier removal.</p>
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<p>Comparison of torque data before and after low-pass filtering.</p>
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<p>Residual plot of the elastic net regression model.</p>
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<p>Comparison of predicted and actual values.</p>
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<p>Error percentage plot of the elastic net regression model.</p>
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18 pages, 5663 KiB  
Article
Offshore Submerged Aquaculture Flow-Net Interaction Simulation: A Numerical Approach for the Hydrodynamic Characteristics of Nets Produced from Different Materials
by Zhiyuan Wang, Wei He, Weiqiang Li, Hongxing Chen, Feng Zhang and Hongling Qin
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2025, 13(2), 234; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse13020234 - 26 Jan 2025
Viewed by 454
Abstract
The mechanical and hydrodynamic characteristics of single-piece nets are key to the design and optimization of offshore aquaculture net cages. A numerical approach for offshore submerged aquaculture net materials based on the Morison equations and finite element is proposed, simulating the hydrodynamic characteristics [...] Read more.
The mechanical and hydrodynamic characteristics of single-piece nets are key to the design and optimization of offshore aquaculture net cages. A numerical approach for offshore submerged aquaculture net materials based on the Morison equations and finite element is proposed, simulating the hydrodynamic characteristics of single-piece nets under varying parameters such as wire diameter, mesh size, and flow velocity, and simulating the impact of marine organism attachment on nets by modifying the drag coefficient. The simulation results of nets made from materials such as Copper–Zinc Alloy (Cu-Zn), Zinc–Aluminum Alloy (Zn-Al), Semi-Rigid Polyethylene Terephthalate (PET), and Ultra-High Molecular Weight Polyethylene (UHMWPE) are compared, which provides a theoretical basis for optimizing design parameters and selecting materials for nets based on force conditions and hydrodynamic characteristics. The simulation results indicate that the current force on the net is positively correlated with flow velocity; the maximum displacement of the net is also positively correlated with the flow rate. Compared to other materials, the Cu-Zn net is subjected to the greatest water flow force, while the UHMWPE net experiences the greatest displacement; the larger the diameter of the netting twine, the greater the current force on the net; the mesh size is inversely related to the current force on the net. With increasing drag coefficient, both the maximum displacement of the net and the current force experiences increase, and UHMWPE material nets are more sensitive to increases in the drag coefficient, which indicates a greater impact from the attachment of marine organisms. The density and elastic modulus of the netting material affect the rate of increase in force on the net. The research results can provide a basis for further research on material selection and design of deep-sea aquaculture nets. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Ocean Engineering)
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<p>The flow chart of the numerical simulation procedures.</p>
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<p>Schematic diagram of unit division of net model and flow direction.</p>
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<p>Comparison of force on net for experimental value and simulation value.</p>
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<p>The net model with different mesh sizes (25 mm, 35 mm, 45 mm).</p>
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<p>The current force situation and deformation of the four types of material nets with a mesh size of 25 mm and wire diameter of 3.2 mm.</p>
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<p>The current force situation of different materials. (<b>a</b>) Cu-Zn alloy; (<b>b</b>) Zn-Au alloy; (<b>c</b>) PET; (<b>d</b>) UHMWPE.</p>
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<p>Growth of forces on nets of different materials with different netting wires diameter. (<b>a</b>) A1, A2, A3; (<b>b</b>) B1, B2, B3; (<b>c</b>) C1, C2, C3; (<b>d</b>) D1, D2, D3.</p>
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<p>Displacements of nets with different current velocities. (<b>a</b>) Cu-Zn alloy; (<b>b</b>) Zn-Al alloy; (<b>c</b>) PET; (<b>d</b>) UHMWPE.</p>
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<p>Growth of forces on nets of different materials with different mesh sizes. (<b>a</b>) A2, A5, A8; (<b>b</b>) B2, B5, B8; (<b>c</b>) C2, C5, C8; (<b>d</b>) D2, D5, D8.</p>
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<p>Reduction rate of forces by four materials as mesh size increases (∆F<sub>25</sub> comparing A2, B2, C2, D2 with A5, B5, C5, D5; ∆F<sub>58</sub>: comparing A5, B5, C5, D5 with A8, B8, C8, D8).</p>
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<p>The effect of drag coefficient on the maximum displacement of the net.</p>
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<p>The influence of the drag coefficient on the rate of force increase in the net.</p>
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<p>The percentage increase in force on each net and the current force curve.</p>
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<p>Growth amount of current force on each net.</p>
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19 pages, 6533 KiB  
Article
Robustness of Actual Evapotranspiration Predicted by Random Forest Model Integrating Remote Sensing and Meteorological Information: Case of Watermelon (Citrullus lanatus, (Thunb.) Matsum. & Nakai, 1916)
by Simone Pietro Garofalo, Francesca Ardito, Nicola Sanitate, Gabriele De Carolis, Sergio Ruggieri, Vincenzo Giannico, Gianfranco Rana and Rossana Monica Ferrara
Water 2025, 17(3), 323; https://doi.org/10.3390/w17030323 - 23 Jan 2025
Viewed by 577
Abstract
Water scarcity, exacerbated by climate change and increasing agricultural water demands, highlights the necessity for efficient irrigation management. This study focused on estimating actual evapotranspiration (ETa) in watermelons under semi-arid Mediterranean conditions by integrating high-resolution satellite imagery and agro-meteorological data. Field experiments were [...] Read more.
Water scarcity, exacerbated by climate change and increasing agricultural water demands, highlights the necessity for efficient irrigation management. This study focused on estimating actual evapotranspiration (ETa) in watermelons under semi-arid Mediterranean conditions by integrating high-resolution satellite imagery and agro-meteorological data. Field experiments were conducted in Rutigliano, southern Italy, over a 2.80 ha area. ETa was measured with the eddy covariance (EC) technique and predicted using machine learning models. Multispectral reflectance data from Planet SuperDove satellites and local meteorological records were used as predictors. Partial least squares, the generalized linear model and three machine learning algorithms (Random Forest, Elastic Net, and Support Vector Machine) were evaluated. Random Forest yielded the highest predictive accuracy with an average R2 of 0.74, RMSE of 0.577 mm, and MBE of 0.03 mm. Model interpretability was performed through permutation importance and SHAP, identifying the near-infrared and red spectral bands, average daily temperature, and relative humidity as key predictors. This integrated approach could provide a scalable, precise method for watermelon ETa estimation, supporting data-driven irrigation management and improving water use efficiency in Mediterranean horticultural systems. Full article
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<p>(<b>A</b>) Rutigliano, southern Italy (OpenStreetMap contributors); (<b>B</b>) aerial view of the experimental field where watermelon was cultivated in 2023.</p>
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<p>(<b>a</b>) Trend of mean temperature and relative humidity during the growing season; (<b>b</b>) daily rainfall and irrigation water applied during the growing season.</p>
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<p>Comparison between the complete set of daily watermelon actual evapotranspiration data collected throughout the study season by eddy covariance method (black circles) and the subset corresponding to dates with available satellite imagery used in the analyses (red triangles).</p>
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<p>Heatmap of the correlation matrix among the dataset variables. The values within the cells represent Pearson correlation coefficients. ETa = actual evapotranspiration after pre-processing, T_mean = mean air temperature, RH = air relative humidity.</p>
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<p>Trend of field-measured daily watermelon evapotranspiration (observed ETa) and the predicted watermelon ETa using the Random Forest-based model. The trend of watermelon leaf area index (LAI, m<sup>2</sup> m<sup>−2</sup>).</p>
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<p>Permutation-based feature importance for the Random Forest model predicting watermelon actual evapotranspiration. Error bars indicate the standard deviation of feature importance across permutations.</p>
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<p>SHAP summary plot showing the impact of each feature on the Random Forest model’s predictions for watermelon actual evapotranspiration.</p>
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<p>LIME explanation for the most accurate prediction. The bar plot highlights the contribution of specific feature ranges to the Random Forest prediction, showing their positive impact on model accuracy.</p>
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28 pages, 5309 KiB  
Article
Bayesian Hyperparameter Optimization of Machine Learning Models for Predicting Biomass Gasification Gases
by Pınar Cihan
Appl. Sci. 2025, 15(3), 1018; https://doi.org/10.3390/app15031018 - 21 Jan 2025
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 857
Abstract
Predicting biomass gasification gases is crucial for energy production and environmental monitoring but poses challenges due to complex relationships and variability. Machine learning has emerged as a powerful tool for optimizing and managing these processes. This study uses Bayesian optimization to tune parameters [...] Read more.
Predicting biomass gasification gases is crucial for energy production and environmental monitoring but poses challenges due to complex relationships and variability. Machine learning has emerged as a powerful tool for optimizing and managing these processes. This study uses Bayesian optimization to tune parameters for various machine learning methods, including Random Forest (RF), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Light Gradient-Boosting Machine (LightGBM), Elastic Net, Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost), Gradient-Boosting Regressor (GBR), K-nearest Neighbors (KNN), and Decision Tree (DT), aiming to identify the best model for predicting the compositions of CO, CO2, H2, and CH4 under different conditions. Performance was evaluated using the correlation coefficient (R), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Relative Absolute Error (RAE), and execution time, with comparisons visualized using a Taylor diagram. Hyperparameter optimization’s significance was assessed via t-test effect size and Cohen’s d. XGBoost outperformed other models, achieving high R values under optimal conditions (0.951 for CO, 0.954 for CO2, 0.981 for H2, and 0.933 for CH4) and maintaining robust performance under suboptimal conditions (0.889 for CO, 0.858 for CO2, 0.941 for H2, and 0.856 for CH4). In contrast, K-nearest Neighbors (KNN) and Elastic Net showed the poorest performance and stability. This study underscores the importance of hyperparameter optimization in enhancing model performance and demonstrates XGBoost’s superior accuracy and robustness, providing a valuable framework for applying machine learning to energy management and environmental monitoring. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Environmental Sciences)
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<p>The flowchart of the study.</p>
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<p>Violin Plots of the original dataset (<b>A</b>) and the normalized dataset (<b>B</b>).</p>
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<p>Influence of input parameters on the prediction of CO levels for the original and normalized dataset.</p>
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<p>Linear and nonlinear relationships between CO output and input variables.</p>
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<p>Linear and nonlinear relationships between CO<sub>2</sub> output and input variables.</p>
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<p>Linear and nonlinear relationships between H<sub>2</sub> output and input variables.</p>
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<p>Linear and nonlinear relationships between CH<sub>4</sub> output and input variables.</p>
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<p>Taylor diagram of CO level prediction performance for optimal and suboptimal conditions.</p>
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<p>Taylor diagram of CO<sub>2</sub> level prediction performance for optimal and suboptimal conditions.</p>
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<p>Taylor diagram of H<sub>2</sub> level prediction performance under optimal and suboptimal conditions.</p>
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<p>Taylor diagram of CH<sub>4</sub> level prediction performance under optimal and suboptimal conditions.</p>
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19 pages, 881 KiB  
Article
Exploring Flexible Penalization of Bayesian Survival Analysis Using Beta Process Prior for Baseline Hazard
by Kazeem A. Dauda, Ebenezer J. Adeniyi, Rasheed K. Lamidi and Olalekan T. Wahab
Computation 2025, 13(2), 21; https://doi.org/10.3390/computation13020021 - 21 Jan 2025
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 529
Abstract
High-dimensional data have attracted considerable interest from researchers, especially in the area of variable selection. However, when dealing with time-to-event data in survival analysis, where censoring is a key consideration, progress in addressing this complex problem has remained somewhat limited. Moreover, in microarray [...] Read more.
High-dimensional data have attracted considerable interest from researchers, especially in the area of variable selection. However, when dealing with time-to-event data in survival analysis, where censoring is a key consideration, progress in addressing this complex problem has remained somewhat limited. Moreover, in microarray research, it is common to identify groupings of genes involved in the same biological pathways. These gene groupings frequently collaborate and operate as a unified entity. Therefore, this study is motivated to adopt the idea of a penalized semi-parametric Bayesian Cox (PSBC) model through elastic-net and group lasso penalty functions (PSBC-EN and PSBC-GL) to incorporate the grouping structure of the covariates (genes) and optimally perform variable selection. The proposed methods assign a beta process prior to the cumulative baseline hazard function (PSBC-EN-B and PSBC-GL-B), instead of the gamma process prior used in existing methods (PSBC-EN-G and PSBC-GL-G). Three real-life datasets and simulation scenarios were considered to compare and validate the efficiency of the modified methods with existing techniques, using Bayesian information criteria (BIC). The results of the simulated studies provided empirical evidence that the proposed methods performed better than the existing methods across a wide range of data scenarios. Similarly, the results of the real-life study showed that the proposed methods revealed a substantial improvement over the existing techniques in terms of feature selection and grouping behavior. Full article
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<p>Overall comparison of the PSBC models on the simulated dataset.</p>
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<p>Kaplan–Meier survival curves depicting the duration from the onset of breast cancer symptoms to the occurrence of the primary endpoint (death) for different groups. The curves also highlight the ongoing risk of reaching the primary endpoint at various time points, indicating the number of patients still susceptible to the event [Data 1].</p>
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<p>Kaplan–Meier survival curves depicting the duration from the onset of breast cancer symptoms to the occurrence of the primary endpoint (death) for different groups. The curves also highlight the ongoing risk of reaching the primary endpoint at various time points, indicating the number of patients still susceptible to the event [Data 2].</p>
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<p>Kaplan–Meier survival curves depicting the duration from the onset of rituximab immunotherapy in addition to chemotherapy symptoms to the occurrence of the primary endpoint (death) for different groups. The curves also highlight the ongoing risk of reaching the primary endpoint at various time points, indicating the number of patients still susceptible to the event [Data 3].</p>
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<p>Prediction capability of the four models on three real-life datasets.</p>
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<p>Posterior credible region of the 20 genetic features; only these 20 features are presented to maintain the figure’s legibility for PSBC-GL: (<b>a</b>) gamma prior; (<b>b</b>) beta prior for Data 1.</p>
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<p>Posterior credible region of the 20 genetic features; only these 20 features are presented to maintain the figure’s legibility for PSBC-EN: (<b>a</b>) gamma prior; (<b>b</b>) beta prior for Data 1.</p>
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<p>Posterior credible region of the 20 genetic features; only these 20 features are presented to maintain the figure’s legibility for PSBC-GL: (<b>a</b>) gamma prior; (<b>b</b>) beta prior for Data 2.</p>
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<p>Posterior credible region of the 20 genetic features; only these 20 features are presented to maintain the figure’s legibility for PSBC-EN: (<b>a</b>) gamma prior; (<b>b</b>) beta prior for Data 2.</p>
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<p>Posterior credible region of the 20 genetic features; only these 20 features are presented to maintain the figure’s legibility for PSBC-GL: (<b>a</b>) gamma prior; (<b>b</b>) beta prior for Data 3.</p>
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<p>Posterior credible region of the 20 genetic features; only these 20 features are presented to maintain the figure’s legibility for PSBC-EN: (<b>a</b>) gamma prior; (<b>b</b>) beta prior for Data 3.</p>
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19 pages, 3459 KiB  
Article
Predicting the Progression from Asymptomatic to Symptomatic Multiple Myeloma and Stage Classification Using Gene Expression Data
by Nestoras Karathanasis and George M. Spyrou
Cancers 2025, 17(2), 332; https://doi.org/10.3390/cancers17020332 - 20 Jan 2025
Viewed by 953
Abstract
Background: The accurate staging of multiple myeloma (MM) is essential for optimizing treatment strategies, while predicting the progression of asymptomatic patients, also referred to as monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS), to symptomatic MM remains a significant challenge due to limited data. This [...] Read more.
Background: The accurate staging of multiple myeloma (MM) is essential for optimizing treatment strategies, while predicting the progression of asymptomatic patients, also referred to as monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS), to symptomatic MM remains a significant challenge due to limited data. This study aimed to develop machine learning models to enhance MM staging accuracy and stratify asymptomatic patients by their risk of progression. Methods: We utilized gene expression microarray datasets to develop machine learning models, combined with various data transformations. For multiple myeloma staging, models were trained on a single dataset and validated across five independent datasets, with performance evaluated using multiclass area under the curve (AUC) metrics. To predict progression in asymptomatic patients, we employed two approaches: (1) training models on a dataset comprising asymptomatic patients who either progressed or remained stable without progressing to multiple myeloma, and (2) training models on multiple datasets combining asymptomatic and multiple myeloma samples and then testing their ability to distinguish between asymptomatic and asymptomatic that progressed. We performed feature selection and enrichment analyses to identify key signaling pathways underlying disease stages and progression. Results: Multiple myeloma staging models demonstrated high efficacy, with ElasticNet achieving consistent multiclass AUC values of 0.9 across datasets and transformations, demonstrating robust generalizability. For asymptomatic progression, both modeling approaches yielded similar results, with AUC values exceeding 0.8 across datasets and algorithms (ElasticNet, Boosting, and Support Vector Machines), underscoring their potential in identifying progression risk. Enrichment analyses revealed key pathways, including PI3K-Akt, MAPK, Wnt, and mTOR, as central to MM pathogenesis. Conclusions: To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to utilize gene expression datasets for classifying patients across different stages of multiple myeloma and to integrate multiple myeloma with asymptomatic cases to predict disease progression, offering a novel methodology with potential clinical applications in patient monitoring and early intervention. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Cancer Causes, Screening and Diagnosis)
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<p>Flowchart of the analysis. (<b>A</b>) The flowchart illustrates the process used for predicting the stage of multiple myeloma. The method encompasses multiple steps: data preprocessing, model training, and performance evaluation applied across various datasets. Preprocessing includes several data transformations and the training phase incorporates a variety of machine learning models. After predictions, the model’s key features were interpreted through enrichment analyses. In the figure, (ps) indicates per-sample preprocessing, (train) indicates that normalization was applied to training samples, and (test) refers to applying the parameters learned from training to the test set. (<b>B</b>) The flowchart outlines the process used for predicting the progression of MGUS to MM using machine learning techniques. The method involves preprocessing, model training, and performance evaluation using different datasets similar to A. The boxes with a black background indicate the use of the GSE235356 dataset for training and testing in a 10-fold nested cross-validation fashion. In contrast, gray background boxes represent training on various datasets and testing on the GSE235356 dataset.</p>
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<p>Models’ multiclass auc in the external validation sets. (<b>A</b>) The performance of the external dataset used across all data transformations and machine learning algorithms. (<b>B</b>) The relation of performance to the data transformations across datasets generated in GLP96 or A.AFFY.34 platforms and all machine learning algorithms. (<b>C</b>) The relation of performance to the machine learning algorithms across datasets generated in GLP96 or A.AFFY.34 platforms and all data transformations.</p>
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<p>The number of features utilized by each model across different data transformations. The plot shows the variation in feature selection for each model, highlighting the range of features used in the analysis.</p>
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<p>Enrichment analysis for the selected probes. (<b>Top</b>)<b>:</b> KEGG pathways associated with identified genes. This figure illustrates the KEGG pathways enriched for the genes identified by the machine learning models across different data transformations and training datasets. The pathways displayed are significantly associated with the probes selected by at least one model. Key pathways related to multiple myeloma, such as PI3K-Akt, MAPK, and Wnt signaling, are highlighted. (<b>Bottom</b>)<b>:</b> Disease-related terms associated with identified genes. The figure illustrates the distribution of disease-related terms associated with the genes identified by the models. The chart highlights how different methods and data transformations reveal connections to various cancers, including multiple myeloma. Each term represents a disease category. In both figures, the size and color indicate the strength of the association and statistical significance.</p>
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<p>Performance of machine learning algorithms on the GSE235356 dataset. The figure displays the distribution of the mean cross-validation AUC (auc_cvmean, shown in red) and the distribution of the AUC from the outer hold of the nested cross-validation (auc_test, shown in cyan) for each algorithm when the GSE235356 dataset was used for training and testing. The auc_cvmean represents the performance across the cross-validation folds, while the auc_test indicates the model’s generalizability on unseen data. The comparison of these distributions highlights the algorithm’s generalization and stability.</p>
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<p>Model performance in differentiating MGUS from progressing MGUS across different datasets. The boxplots show the distribution of the mean cross-validation AUC for models trained to differentiate MGUS from progressing MGUS using the GSE235356 dataset. The colored points represent the performance of each algorithm–data transformation combination across various training datasets: models trained with the EMTAB317 dataset are shown in red; those trained with the GSE235356 dataset are in green; models trained with the GSE6477 dataset are shown in cyan; and those trained with the combined GSE6477 + GSE2113 + EMTAB316 + GSE13591 datasets are depicted in purple. Notably, in all cases except for the second (GSE235356), the models were specifically trained to distinguish MGUS from MM.</p>
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<p>Disease-related terms associated with identified genes. The figure illustrates the distribution of disease-related terms associated with the genes identified by the models. The chart highlights how different methods across all data transformations and the different training datasets reveal connections to various cancers, including multiple myeloma. Each term represents a disease category. The size and color indicate the strength of the association and statistical significance. “all GLP96” refers to the combined dataset of GSE6477 + GSE2113 + EMTAB316 + GSE13591, and “GSE” to the GSE235356 dataset.</p>
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21 pages, 12005 KiB  
Article
Shear Wave Velocity Prediction with Hyperparameter Optimization
by Gebrail Bekdaş, Yaren Aydın, Umit Işıkdağ, Sinan Melih Nigdeli, Dara Hajebi, Tae-Hyung Kim and Zong Woo Geem
Information 2025, 16(1), 60; https://doi.org/10.3390/info16010060 - 16 Jan 2025
Viewed by 664
Abstract
Shear wave velocity (Vs) is an important soil parameter to be known for earthquake-resistant structural design and an important parameter for determining the dynamic properties of soils such as modulus of elasticity and shear modulus. Different Vs measurement methods are [...] Read more.
Shear wave velocity (Vs) is an important soil parameter to be known for earthquake-resistant structural design and an important parameter for determining the dynamic properties of soils such as modulus of elasticity and shear modulus. Different Vs measurement methods are available. However, these methods, which are costly and labor intensive, have led to the search for new methods for determining the Vs. This study aims to predict shear wave velocity (Vs (m/s)) using depth (m), cone resistance (qc) (MPa), sleeve friction (fs) (kPa), pore water pressure (u2) (kPa), N, and unit weight (kN/m3). Since shear wave velocity varies with depth, regression studies were performed at depths up to 30 m in this study. The dataset used in this study is an open-source dataset, and the soil data are from the Taipei Basin. This dataset was extracted, and a 494-line dataset was created. In this study, using HyperNetExplorer 2024V1, Vs prediction based on depth (m), cone resistance (qc) (MPa), shell friction (fs), pore water pressure (u2) (kPa), N, and unit weight (kN/m3) values could be performed with satisfactory results (R2 = 0.78, MSE = 596.43). Satisfactory results were obtained in this study, in which Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) models were also used. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Emerging Research on Neural Networks and Anomaly Detection)
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<p>Summary of the study.</p>
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<p>Study area.</p>
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<p>Pairwise scatter plots of all variables.</p>
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<p>Artificial neural network model structure.</p>
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<p>Activation functions used in this study.</p>
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<p>10-fold cross validation.</p>
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<p>Scatter plot of the best performing ANN (HS).</p>
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<p>Scatter plot of the best performing ANN (FPA).</p>
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<p>SHAP summary plot.</p>
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