Search Results (88)

The underground plastic vertical drains (PVDs) are a significant problem for shield machines in tunneling construction. At present, the main method to deal with PVDs is to manually adjust the parameters of the shield machine. To ensure that a shield machine autonomously recognizes and adjusts the control in soil layers containing PVDs, this study constructs a shield machine advance and rotation state-space model utilizing Bayesian decision theory for the judgment of excavation conditions. A Bayesian model predictive control (Bayes-MPC) method for the shield machine is proposed, followed by a simulation analysis. Finally, a validation experiment is conducted based on a Singapore subway project. Compared with traditional methods, the method proposed in this paper has better performance in the simulation, and it also has demonstrated effectiveness and accuracy in experiments. The research outcomes can provide a reference for the adaptive assistance system of shield machines excavating underground obstacles. Full article

Modern Multi-Function Radars (MFRs) are sophisticated sensors that are capable of flexibly adapting their control parameters in transmitted pulse sequences. In complex electromagnetic environments, efficiently and accurately recognizing the inter-pulse modulations of non-cooperative radar pulse sequences is a key step for modern Electronic Support (ES) systems. Existing recognition methods focus more on algorithmic designs, such as neural network structure designs, to improve recognition performance. However, in open electromagnetic environments with increased flexibility in radar transmission, these methods would suffer performance degradation due to domain shifts between training and testing datasets. To address this issue, this study proposes a robust radar inter-pulse modulation feature extraction and recognition method based on disentangled representation learning. At first, inspired by the Representation Learning Theory (RLT), the received radar pulse sequences can be disentangled into three explanatory factors related to (i) modulation types, (ii) modulation parameters, and (iii) measurement characteristics, such as measurement noise. Then, an explainable radar pulse sequence disentanglement network is proposed based on auto-encoding variational Bayes. The features extracted through the proposed method can effectively represent the key latent factors related to recognition tasks and maintain performance under domain shift conditions. Experiments on both ideal and non-ideal situations demonstrate the effectiveness, robustness, and superiority of the proposed method in comparison with other methods. Full article

We study stochastic linear contextual bandits (CB) where the agent observes a noisy version of the true context through a noise channel with unknown channel parameters. Our objective is to design an action policy that can “approximate” that of a Bayesian oracle that has access to the reward model and the noise channel parameter. We introduce a modified Thompson sampling algorithm and analyze its Bayesian cumulative regret with respect to the oracle action policy via information-theoretic tools. For Gaussian bandits with Gaussian context noise, our information-theoretic analysis shows that under certain conditions on the prior variance, the Bayesian cumulative regret scales as $\tilde{O}\left(m\sqrt{T}\right)$, where m is the dimension of the feature vector and T is the time horizon. We also consider the problem setting where the agent observes the true context with some delay after receiving the reward, and show that delayed true contexts lead to lower regret. Finally, we empirically demonstrate the performance of the proposed algorithms against baselines. Full article

Autonomous search is an ongoing cycle of sensing, statistical estimation, and motion control with the objective to find and localise targets in a designated search area. Traditionally, the theoretical framework for autonomous search combines sequential Bayesian estimation with information theoretic motion control. This paper formulates autonomous search in the framework of possibility theory. Although the possibilistic formulation is slightly more involved than the traditional method, it provides a means for quantitative modelling and reasoning in the presence of epistemic uncertainty. This feature is demonstrated in the paper in the context of partially known probability of detection, expressed as an interval value. The paper presents an elegant Bayes-like solution to sequential estimation, with the reward function for motion control defined to take into account the epistemic uncertainty. The advantages of the proposed search algorithm are demonstrated by numerical simulations. Full article

Milk is a kind of dairy product with high nutritive value. Tracing the origin of milk can uphold the interests of consumers as well as the stability of the dairy market. In this study, a fuzzy direct linear discriminant analysis (FDLDA) is proposed to extract the near-infrared spectral information of milk by combining fuzzy set theory with direct linear discriminant analysis (DLDA). First, spectral data of the milk samples were collected by a portable NIR spectrometer. Then, the data were preprocessed by Savitzky–Golay (SG) and standard normal variables (SNV) to reduce noise, and the dimensionality of the spectral data was decreased by principal component analysis (PCA). Furthermore, linear discriminant analysis (LDA), DLDA, and FDLDA were employed to transform the spectral data into feature space. Finally, the k-nearest neighbor (KNN) classifier, extreme learning machine (ELM) and naïve Bayes classifier were used for classification. The results of the study showed that the classification accuracy of FDLDA was higher than DLDA when the KNN classifier was used. The highest recognition accuracy of FDLDA, DLDA, and LDA could reach 97.33%, 94.67%, and 94.67%. The classification accuracy of FDLDA was also higher than DLDA when using ELM and naïve Bayes classifiers, but the highest recognition accuracy was 88.24% and 92.00%, respectively. Therefore, the KNN classifier outperformed the ELM and naïve Bayes classifiers. This study demonstrated that combining FDLDA, DLDA, and LDA with NIR spectroscopy as an effective method for determining the origin of milk. Full article

Accurate quantification of uncertainty in solar photovoltaic (PV) generation forecasts is imperative for the efficient and reliable operation of the power grid. In this paper, a data-driven non-parametric probabilistic method based on the Naïve Bayes (NB) classification algorithm and Dempster–Shafer theory (DST) of evidence is proposed for day-ahead probabilistic PV power forecasting. This NB-DST method extends traditional deterministic solar PV forecasting methods by quantifying the uncertainty of their forecasts by estimating the cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of their forecast errors and forecast variables. The statistical performance of this method is compared with the analog ensemble method and the persistence ensemble method under three different weather conditions using real-world data. The study results reveal that the proposed NB-DST method coupled with an artificial neural network model outperforms the other methods in that its estimated CDFs have lower spread, higher reliability, and sharper probabilistic forecasts with better accuracy. Full article

This study explores trust dynamics within online social networks, blending social science theories with advanced machine-learning (ML) techniques. We examine trust’s multifaceted nature—definitions, types, and mechanisms for its establishment and maintenance—and analyze social network structures through graph theory. Employing a diverse array of ML models (e.g., KNN, SVM, Naive Bayes, Gradient Boosting, and Neural Networks), we predict connection strengths on Facebook, focusing on model performance metrics such as accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score. Our methodology, executed in Python using the Anaconda distribution, unveils insights into trust formation and sustainability on social media, highlighting the potent application of ML in understanding these dynamics. Challenges, including the complexity of modeling social behaviors and ethical data use concerns, are discussed, emphasizing the need for continued innovation. Our findings contribute to the discourse on trust in social networks and suggest future research directions, including the application of our methodologies to other platforms and the study of online trust over time. This work not only advances the academic understanding of digital social interactions but also offers practical implications for developers, policymakers, and online communities. Full article

Bayesian inference typically focuses upon two issues. The first is estimating the parameters of some model from data, and the second is quantifying the evidence for alternative hypotheses—formulated as alternative models. This paper focuses upon a third issue. Our interest is in the selection of data—either through sampling subsets of data from a large dataset or through optimising experimental design—based upon the models we have of how those data are generated. Optimising data-selection ensures we can achieve good inference with fewer data, saving on computational and experimental costs. This paper aims to unpack the principles of active sampling of data by drawing from neurobiological research on animal exploration and from the theory of optimal experimental design. We offer an overview of the salient points from these fields and illustrate their application in simple toy examples, ranging from function approximation with basis sets to inference about processes that evolve over time. Finally, we consider how this approach to data selection could be applied to the design of (Bayes-adaptive) clinical trials. Full article

Shannon’s entropy is a fundamental concept in information theory that quantifies the uncertainty or information in a random variable or data set. This article addresses the estimation of Shannon’s entropy for the Maxwell lifetime model based on progressively first-failure-censored data from both classical and Bayesian points of view. In the classical perspective, the entropy is estimated using maximum likelihood estimation and bootstrap methods. For Bayesian estimation, two approximation techniques, including the Tierney-Kadane (T-K) approximation and the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, are used to compute the Bayes estimate of Shannon’s entropy under the linear exponential (LINEX) loss function. We also obtained the highest posterior density (HPD) credible interval of Shannon’s entropy using the MCMC technique. A Monte Carlo simulation study is performed to investigate the performance of the estimation procedures and methodologies studied in this manuscript. A numerical example is used to illustrate the methodologies. This paper aims to provide practical values in applied statistics, especially in the areas of reliability and lifetime data analysis. Full article

We discuss the asymmetries of dynamical origin that are relevant to functional brain activity. The brain is permanently open to its environment, and its dissipative dynamics is characterized indeed by the asymmetries under time translation transformations and time-reversal transformations, which manifest themselves in the irreversible “arrow of time”. Another asymmetry of dynamical origin arises from the breakdown of the rotational symmetry of molecular electric dipoles, triggered by incoming stimuli, which manifests in long-range dipole-dipole correlations favoring neuronal correlations. In the dissipative model, neurons, glial cells, and other biological components are classical structures. The dipole vibrational fields are quantum variables. We review the quantum field theory model of the brain proposed by Ricciardi and Umezawa and its subsequent extension to dissipative dynamics. We then show that Bayes’ theorem in probability theory is intrinsic to the structure of the brain states and discuss its strict relation with entanglement phenomena and free energy minimization. The brain estimates the action with a higher Bayes probability to be taken to produce the aimed effect. Bayes’ rule provides the formal basis of the intentionality in brain activity, which we also discuss in relation to mind and consciousness. Full article

In the present paper, the process of estimating the important statistical properties of extreme wind loads on structures is investigated by considering the effect of large variability. In fact, for the safety design and operating conditions of structures such as the ones characterizing tall buildings, wind towers, and offshore structures, it is of interest to obtain the best possible estimates of extreme wind loads on structures, the recurrence frequency, the return periods, and other stochastic properties, given the available statistical data. In this paper, a Bayes estimation of extreme load values is investigated in the framework of structural safety analysis. The evaluation of extreme values of the wind loads on the structures is performed via a combined employment of a Poisson process model for the peak-over-threshold characterization and an adequate characterization of the parent distribution which generates the base wind load values. In particular, the present investigation is based upon a key parameter for assessing the safety of structures, i.e., a proper safety index referred to a given extreme value of wind speed. The attention is focused upon the estimation process, for which the presented procedure proposes an adequate Bayesian approach based upon prior assumptions regarding (1) the Weibull probability that wind speed is higher than a prefixed threshold value, and (2) the frequency of the Poisson process of gusts. In the last part of the investigation, a large set of numerical simulations is analyzed to evaluate the feasibility and efficiency of the above estimation method and with the objective to analyze and compare the presented approach with the classical Maximum Likelihood method. Moreover, the robustness of the proposed Bayes estimation is also investigated with successful results, both with respect to the assumed parameter prior distributions and with respect to the Weibull distribution of the wind speed values. Full article

Commonly, it is accepted that oncology treatment would yield outcomes with a certain determinism without any quantitative support or mathematical model that establishes such determinations. Nowadays, with the advent of nanomedicine, the targeting drug delivery scheme has emerged, whose central objective is the uptake of nanoparticles by tumors. Once they are injected into the bloodstream, it is unclear as to which process governs the directing of nanoparticles towards the desired target, deterministic or stochastic. In any scenario, an optimal outcome, small toxicity and minimal dispersion of drugs is expected. Commonly, it is expected that an important fraction of them can be internalized into tumor. In this manner, due to the fraction of nanoparticles that have failed to uptake, the success of the drug delivery scheme might be at risk. In this paper, a theory based on the sequence electrodynamics–diffusion–Bayes theorem is presented. The Bayesian probability that emerges at the end of the sequence might be telling us that dynamical processes based on the injection of electrically charged nanoparticles might be dictated by stochastic formalism. Thus, rather than expecting a deterministic process, the chain of events would convert the drug delivery scheme to be dependent on a sequence of conditional probabilities. Full article

Genealogies, knowledge, and purity all can provide separate identities with the means for competing self-definition. This article assumes a social location near Ephesus with Samaritan Israelites and Judeans in a Jesus-believing network. Rather than providing an analysis in which divisions are transcended, this reading suggests that a negotiation in John 4:4–45 of these three characteristics navigates divisions to create a complex, merged superordinate identity. Full article

Mathematical aggregation of probabilistic expert judgments often involves weighted linear combinations of experts’ elicited probability distributions of uncertain quantities. Experts’ weights are commonly derived from calibration experiments based on the experts’ performance scores, where performance is evaluated in terms of the calibration and the informativeness of the elicited distributions. This is referred to as Cooke’s method, or the classical model (CM), for aggregating probabilistic expert judgments. The performance scores are derived from experiments, so they are uncertain and, therefore, can be represented by random variables. As a consequence, the experts’ weights are also random variables. We focus on addressing the underlying uncertainty when calculating experts’ weights to be used in a mathematical aggregation of expert elicited distributions. This paper investigates the potential of applying an empirical Bayes development of the James–Stein shrinkage estimation technique on the CM’s weights to derive shrinkage weights with reduced mean squared errors. We analyze 51 professional CM expert elicitation studies. We investigate the differences between the classical and the (new) shrinkage CM weights and the benefits of using the new weights. In theory, the outcome of a probabilistic model using the shrinkage weights should be better than that obtained when using the classical weights because shrinkage estimation techniques reduce the mean squared errors of estimators in general. In particular, the empirical Bayes shrinkage method used here reduces the assigned weights for those experts with larger variances in the corresponding sampling distributions of weights in the experiment. We measure improvement of the aggregated judgments in a cross-validation setting using two studies that can afford such an approach. Contrary to expectations, the results are inconclusive. However, in practice, we can use the proposed shrinkage weights to increase the reliability of derived weights when only small-sized experiments are available. We demonstrate the latter on 49 post-2006 professional CM expert elicitation studies. Full article

With the motivation of long-term care 2.0 plans, forecasting models to identify potential customers of long-term care insurance (LTCI) are an important and interesting issue. From the limited literature, most past researchers emphasize traditional statistics techniques to address this issue; however, these are lacking in some areas. For example, intelligent hybrid models for LTCI are lacking, performance measurement of components for hybrid models is lacking, and research results for interpretative capacities are lacking, resulting in a black box scenario and difficulty in making decisions, and the gap between identifying potential customers and constructing hybrid models is unbridged. To solve the shortcomings mentioned above, this study proposes some advanced intelligent single and hybrid models; the study object is LTCI customers. The proposed hybrid models were used on the experimental dataset collected from real insurance data and possess the following advantages: (1) The feature selection technique was used to simplify variables for the purpose of improving model performance. (2) The performance of hybrid models was evaluated against some machine learning methods, including rough set theory, decision trees, multilayer perceptron, support vector machine, genetic algorithm, random forest, logistic regression, and naive Bayes, and sensitivity analysis was performed in terms of accuracy, coverage, rules number, and standard deviation. (3) We used the C4.5 algorithm of decision trees and the LEM2 algorithm of rough sets to extract and provide valuably comprehensible decisional rules as decision-making references for the interested parties for their varied benefits. (4) We used post hoc testing to verify the significant difference in groups. Conclusively, this study effectively identifies potential customers for their key attributes and creates a decision rule set of knowledge for use as a reference when solving practical problems by forming a structured solution. This study is a new trial in the LTCI application field and realizes novel creative application values. Such a hybrid model is rarely seen in identifying LTCI potential customers; thus, the study has sufficient application contribution and managerial benefits to attract much concern from the interested parties. Full article