1. Introduction
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [
1] recently confirmed the alarming levels of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere, concluding that climate change is already affecting all regions of the planet, and that continued GHG emissions will cause further global warming and irreversible changes in the main components of the climate system. In most proposed mitigation pathways to limit global warming, carbon removal is strictly required, and it is estimated that about 110 to 1100 gigatons of CO
2 must be removed from the atmosphere by 2100 [
2].
The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015, was hailed as a watershed for climate action in international policy. It is based on commitments to nationally determined contributions (NDCs) which should result in a consistent global response to climate change, keeping warming well below 2 °C this century. In fact, the long-term goal is to keep warming to 1.5 °C [
3]. Following the NDCs, many countries included carbon capture and storage (CCS) in their long-term strategies to reduce emissions from the energy and industrial sectors [
4]. Global emissions of GHGs need to reach net zero by 2050, which requires the contribution of significant negative emissions to offset the remaining ones [
5,
6]. In the energy sector, there is a portfolio of alternatives for reducing net GHG emissions, such as the decarbonization of electrical matrices, fuel switching, the electrification of industrial processes and transport systems, in addition to carbon capture and storage [
2].
Regarding CCS in power plants, the database of projects provided by the Global CCS Institute [
7] lists three commercial facilities: one with suspended operation (Petra Nova, in the USA, with a capacity of 1.4 million tons of CO
2 per year—MtCO
2), one in operation (Boundary Dam, in Canada—1 MtCO
2), and one under construction (Guodian Taizhou Power Station, in China—0.3 MtCO
2). A similar database from the International Energy Agency (IEA) [
8] lists the same three projects and includes two smaller CCS facilities in the operational stage: one in China (China Energy Jinjie Power—0.15 MtCO
2) and one in Japan (Mikawa Power Plant—0.18 MtCO
2). All these power plants burn coal, except for the Japanese unit (the fuel is palm kernel shells) [
9]. In recent years, assessments have been carried out on carbon capture in power plants [
10,
11,
12,
13,
14], and, in particular, the specificities of some countries have been addressed [
15,
16,
17].
The sustainable use of biomass for energy and CCS are two alternatives for mitigating emissions, and they can be combined in BECCS systems. Biomass-to-energy is reasonably common in electricity and heat generation; in general, feedstock could include agricultural and industrial residues, sewage sludge, and forest waste [
18]. The most recent goal for BECCS, mentioned by the IEA [
8], is that almost 3000 MtCO
2 must be annually captured by 2070. By 2022, BECCS systems have contributed to the effective capture of only about 1 MtCO
2 per year [
8].
Currently, most active BECCS projects are in ethanol plants, with seven operational facilities and thirty-nine facilities in advanced development, expected to be operational by 2024–2025. Most corn ethanol plants are concentrated in the United States, accounting for approximately 95% of such facilities. In Brazil, there is an early development project centered around corn ethanol production. Additionally, Canada has a project known as the CCUS Hub in southeast Saskatchewan which involves the collection of CO
2 emissions from various sources in the Moose Jaw to Regina corridor [
7].
In the power sector, only three projects were reported [
7]. The Mendota BECCS project is based on oxycombustion technology to capture CO
2 from the synthesis gas combustion, produced by waste biomass gasification [
19]. The Drax project is expected to be the first large-scale project operating 100% on wood-pellet biomass feedstock. The pilot plant started capturing one ton of CO
2 per day, and the aim is to capture 4.3 MtCO
2 per year by 2027 [
7]. The Cyclus Project is currently under evaluation, with no information available regarding its operational status. A power plant based on biomass (various fuel sources such as wood chips, wood waste, bagasse, or other available alternative fuels) with a capacity of 200 MW, located in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, US, would have a negative net carbon impact [
20].
Critics point out that, for the large-scale deployment of BECCS, it is necessary to overcome challenges throughout the supply chain, such as in the production of biomass, the impacts associated with land-use change (e.g., the risk of deforestation), the potential impact on the prices of food, the implantation of biorefineries, the transport and injection of CO
2, and the monitoring of potential risks involved with CCS [
21,
22].
To make BECCS economically viable, it is necessary to tax fossil emissions and/or remunerate stored biogenic CO
2 [
23]. The IEA estimates that CO
2 capture from fermentation in association with ethanol production is currently the cheapest option, with costs ranging from 20 to 30 EUR
2020/tCO
2 [
24]. Likewise, capture costs in biomass-based electricity generation vary from 50 to 70 EUR
2020/tCO
2 [
25]. According to Tanzer et al. [
23], fossil fuel emissions need to be taxed by an estimated 70 EUR
2020/tCO
2 for BECCS processes to be competitive.
The sugarcane sector in Brazil has a large amount of residual biomass available, and this suggests a significant BECCS potential. Brazil is responsible for 27% of the global production of ethanol [
26], which is the most consumed biofuel in the world. Brazil currently has about 360 operating mills [
27], emitting million tons of CO
2 per year, both from fermentation and biomass burning in the cogeneration processes. Moreira et al. [
28] estimate a potential removal of 28 MtCO
2 per year through CCS, accounting only for the CO
2 from ethanol fermentation in the production of ethanol. Mills already use residual sugarcane biomass—bagasse and, more recently, straw—in conventional combined heat and power (CHP) stations, and, if CO
2 were captured and stored permanently, this would significantly improve the potential of BECCS in Brazil.
The traditional use of only bagasse has provided energy self-sufficiency to the mills. The recent transition from manual to mechanized harvesting has made straw available, and its most obvious use is also in the generation of electricity, which would allow an increase in the surplus for commercialization [
29]. In the recovery of straw from the field, the agronomic effects must be considered, and the removal depends mainly on climate and soil conditions [
30]. In the sugar–energy sector, bagasse and straw can be stored for use as fuel throughout the year, which would benefit the facility’s capacity factor.
Considering the importance of BECCS technology to achieve global goals and, in addition, the potential for sustainable biomass production in Brazil, this paper presents the final part of a study that aimed to research the capture and storage of carbon in the combined production of liquid fuels and electricity, using the already-available biomass. The authors’ first study was an evaluation of the performance and feasibility of BECCS in the Brazilian sugar–energy sector, with the CCS of carbon emitted in steam-based CHP systems, together with the capture of CO
2 produced in fermentation, in ethanol production [
31]. In a second study, the BECCS technology was evaluated in a sugarcane mill considering electricity generation based on the still noncommercial biomass-integrated gasification to combined cycle (BIG-CC) technology. Both pre- and postcombustion capture routes were considered in this case [
32].
Since the previous results indicated the feasibility of carbon capture, this paper presents the assessment of BECCS in a thermal power plant that would use residual sugarcane biomass. The scope includes three main assessments: (i) comparison with the results from previous studies, (ii) a biomass cost impact analysis, and (iii) an analysis of the scale effects.
3. Results and Discussion
The results presented are divided into three subsections. First, a comparison with carbon capture in a sugarcane mill is presented. Second, a sensitivity analysis on the cost of fuel was performed. Finally, the impact of scale effects was analyzed.
3.1. Comparison with Capturing in a Sugarcane Mill
Next to a sugarcane plant with a capacity equal to 4.8 Mt crushed per year, a thermal power plant would be installed. The sugarcane plant would have a cogeneration unit just to ensure self-sufficiency, and the surplus biomass would be transferred to the power plant. The results show that the mill can operate with 58% of available bagasse, not requiring straw. Thus, the surplus bagasse (42%) and all the straw available at the mill site are transferred to the thermal power plant.
Table 9 presents the estimates of the surplus biomass.
Comparison with previous results [
22,
23] requires that the annual capture of CO
2 be equal, and then the amount of biomass required by the power plant was calculated. In both cases, the CO
2 stream from the fermentation in the neighboring mill was added.
Table 10 presents the simulation results for both thermal power plant technologies operating with CO
2 capture.
Results from previous studies have been updated to allow for the proper comparison of the results. The mill has an annexed distillery and sugarcane is used in equal amounts to produce ethanol and sugar (i.e., 50% of the cane is used for ethanol).
In the BIG-CC case, almost all available biomass would be consumed, being all bagasse and 98% straw. In this case, the total annual capture would be 1.28 MtCO2, and this corresponds to 91% of the total CO2 flow. The power required for compression was estimated separately: the compression of CO2 from biomass combustion in the thermal power plant and the compression of CO2 produced during fermentation. The annual net electricity output would be 827 GWh.
In the CEST case, the thermal power unit would consume all available bagasse and 81% of straw. The comparison with previous results requires the consideration of a lower carbon-capture capacity (1.09 MtCO2 per year), since the BECCS system previously studied in the CEST case would be installed in a mill with a lower crushing capacity (4.0 Mt of cane crushed per year). The global capture efficiency would also be 91%. The net electricity generation would be 535 GWh, which is 35% lower than in the BIG-CC case.
For simplicity, the economic assessment was performed considering a single flow of investments in year 0.
Table 11 presents the cost estimates and economic results for the BIG-CC and the CEST technologies. The costs per year, except for CO
2 transport and storage (these were taken from NETL, 2019), were calculated assuming 25 years of useful life. The total investment in the BIG-CC case (n
th unit of the power plant) would be equivalent to EUR 3860 per installed kW, or 11% more expensive than in the CEST case (EUR 3492 per kW). In the BIG-CC case, the gasification island (gasifier plus clean-up gases and auxiliaries) represents 25% of the total capital costs and 12% of the O&M costs. The capture unit has a significant impact on the economic performance, representing 60% of the total investment in the BIG-CC case and 83% in the CEST one. For the O&M, capture expenses represent 67% of total operation costs in the BIG-CC case and 61% in the CEST case.
Table 12 compares the results for the thermal power plant that operates with residual sugarcane biomass, with CO
2 capture, with the results of previous studies [
22,
23] in which cogeneration systems installed in sugarcane mills were evaluated. These have been updated and adjusted for correct comparison.
For the BIG-CC technology (CHP and power plant), the MSP of surplus electricity was estimated at 42 EUR/MWh, which is in line with the prices paid for bioelectricity in recent auctions in Brazil [
66]. For the CEST technology, the estimated MSP of electricity is 22 EUR/MWh in the thermoelectric case and 29 EUR/MWh for cogeneration. The difference can be understood mainly as result of the larger electricity output, almost 300 GWh per year, and to a lesser extent due to the lower consumption of straw (which has a cost) in the thermal power plant.
For the thermoelectric cases, CO2 abatement costs per ton of CO2 stored ranges from EUR 62 to 73 for the BIG-CC and EUR 61 to 72 for the CEST. Comparing with the estimated (and adjusted) costs of carbon capture and storage for cogeneration cases, there is a small increase for the power plant based on the BIG-CC technology, while for the cases based on the CEST technology, the thermoelectric configuration represents an advantage. These results lead to the conclusion that the capture in thermal power plants based on residual sugarcane biomass, in principle, makes sense, which justifies further in-depth analysis.
3.2. Impact of Fuel Costs
The owners of the sugarcane mill and the thermoelectric plant are expected to be different agents, which raises the question of the impact of biomass costs on the economic results of capturing and storing carbon. This was explored by repeating the procedure that led to the results presented in
Table 12 (where only the costs of harvesting and transporting the straw were considered, i.e., which are equivalent to 0.75 EUR/GJ for the BIG-CC case and 0.67 EUR/GJ for the CEST case), now varying the energy cost in the range from 0 to EUR 5 per GJ. In the case of straw, the costs of collecting and transporting (see
Table 7) were added, resulting in higher values compared to bagasse.
Figure 2 shows the variation in estimated costs of CO
2 captured for different average biomass costs (bagasse and straw). Here, it was arbitrarily assumed that costs over EUR 90 per ton of CO
2 stored would lead to a noncompetitiveness scenario compared to other mitigation alternatives. This premise regarding the threshold value is also motivated by the expectation that CO
2 capture costs will decrease in the coming years [
67]. In this sense, it can be concluded that the maximum (average) cost of sugarcane biomass for a BECCS thermal power unit to be feasible is 3 EUR/GJ (in the case of maximum CO
2 storage costs). This value also serves as a reference for a future feasibility analysis in the case of using other biomasses.
3.3. Scaling Effects
Another important aspect in the analysis is the consideration of the scale effects of BECCS systems, assuming greater capacity to generate electricity and, consequently, greater capture of carbon dioxide. Electricity-generation capacity was increased by collecting the straw available in the field in a circle with a maximum radius of 50 km, centered on the thermoelectric (see
Table 2). The spatial distribution of sugarcane cropping in 2019 was assumed for estimating straw availability and its location. In this case, it was assumed that the straw would be transported in bales.
Here, for simplification, it was assumed that the energy component of biomass costs is EUR 1 per GJ, and this value was added to the operating and transporting costs for straw, as reported in
Table 7. The same technical parameters previously mentioned were considered both for the thermal power plants and CO
2 capture, while the costs were corrected considering the scale effect both in the power plant and in the capture unit.
3.3.1. CEST Technology
Table 13 presents results for different capacities of electricity generation based on the CEST technology. As can be seen, CO
2 abatement costs are reduced with scale effects. The increase in the cost of biomass, due to the longer transport distance, has a tiny impact on the abatement cost. Annual carbon capture is three times greater in the case of straw collection within a radius of 50 km (3.70 MtCO
2) in relation to the situation in which collection is restricted to a radius of 20 km (1.21 MtCO
2). In the best case, the abatement cost could be reduced to EUR 54–65 per ton of CO
2, which is almost 20% lower compared to the reference case.
3.3.2. BIG-CC Technology
Table 14 presents the results of scaling effects when electric generation is based on the BIG-CC technology. As a single gas turbine model was considered, the analysis was performed by increasing the number of modules (the same gas turbines plus the gasifier inland). The amount of biomass needed to operate two or more power modules was estimated from the requirements of the gasification unit. The same trend of reduction of CO
2 abatement costs can be observed with the scale. When straw is collected within a radius of 45 km, and the thermoelectric plant has three BIG-CC modules, the annual CO
2 capture (3.50 MtCO
2) is almost three times greater than when straw collection does not exceed a radius of 20 km (1.28 MtCO
2) and the power plant has only one module. To make a power plant with four BIG-CC modules viable, it would be necessary to collect straw beyond the 50 km radius. The CO
2 abatement cost could be reduced to EUR 57–68 per ton of CO
2, which is slightly higher than best figure for the CEST technology.
3.4. Feasibility in a Themal Power Plant
The comparison of the results of capturing CO2 in thermoelectric plants burning residual sugarcane biomass with those of cogeneration systems show that the costs are not higher, and may even be lower.
Finally, a case of a stand-alone thermal power plant, without including the CO
2 from fermentation, was assessed.
Table 15 and
Table 16 present results for the CEST and BIG-CC technologies, respectively. It can be seen that neglecting CO
2 capture from fermentation does not impact significantly the final cost. For both technologies, in the best cases, the abatement cost is slightly higher than when fermentation flow is considered, and this could be explained by the scale effects on CO
2 capturing.
The WGIII of the Sixth IPCC Assessment Report [
1] presents costs for the BECCS technology, with values between 13 and 355 EUR/tCO
2. (Values in US dollars (USD) were converted to Euro using the average exchange rate in 2020 (1.12 USD/EUR).) For the minimum values in the range, only the rigorous capture of CO
2 from fermentation in ethanol production would be competitive: under Brazilian conditions, these costs were estimated at 24 EUR/tCO
2 [
28] and 23 EUR/tCO
2 [
31]. However, the alternative of capturing CO
2 from fermentation at a sugarcane plant could be impacted by the scale, as CO
2 transportation represents a considerable cost factor. In fact, Tagomori [
44] showed that CO
2 capture from ethanol production needs to be combined with cogeneration plants to enable the implementation of CO
2 transport infrastructure. Even so, this BECCS arrangement may not be enough, and gains in scale and operational regularity, eventually, could only be made possible with CO
2 from fossil sources [
68].
As the range indicated by the IPCC is very wide, all the results reported in this paper are in the lower part. Nevertheless, as BECCS is not a mature technology (Technology Readiness Level–TRL–5-6), and there is little information about suitable sites for geological storage, there are significant uncertainties about the viability of the first units in Brazil.
CCS is one of the alternatives in the portfolio of actions for achieving climate goals. However, for similar mitigation costs, capturing carbon in a thermoelectric plant that operates with residual biomass is a more suitable option compared to capturing in a fossil fuel plant, mainly because emissions can be negative.
4. Conclusions
In this paper, the feasibility of CO2 capture in thermal power plants using residual sugarcane biomass was analyzed, and comparisons were made with results previously presented for capture in cogeneration facilities.
The first general conclusion is that the costs are not higher, and may be even lower than when capturing in cogeneration systems. The main reasons are the potential effects of scale and the minimization of energy penalties associated with integrating the CCS system into the mills. Capture costs fall with the scale of capture, which justifies the collection of biomass in the vicinity of the thermoelectric plant. The conclusion is valid for a maximum collection radius of 50 km with the thermal power plant as the center.
The cost of biomass impacts the results, and the scenario in which residual sugarcane biomass would be valued above 2 to 3 EUR/GJ, depending on CO2 storage costs, reduces the attractiveness of the BECCS option studied here in relation to other mitigation alternatives.
As the capacity of the thermoelectric increases, the contribution of CO2 from fermentation to the viability of the studied alternative decreases. Thus, at the limit, it would not be necessary to define the location of the power plant due to the availability of CO2 from the fermentation, which can give more locational flexibility to the thermoelectric. This raises the issue that CO2 capture from fermentation, which is the most obvious opportunity, can even be handled independently.
Although this study was carried out for the use of residual sugarcane biomass as fuel, the conclusions are also valid for other biomasses provided that the distance from the planting region—and the thermoelectric plant—to the injection sinks is equivalent to that which was considered here.
Considering only the capture of CO2, the results obtained indicate that, even in the future, assuming that they will become commercial, there should be no advantage of BIG-CC systems in relation to conventional cogeneration systems.
Finally, it is important to point out that it was assumed here that it will be possible to burn a large amount of straw to raise steam at high temperature, which today does not occur without operational problems in steam generators, even in small fractions. In the cases considered here, the amount of straw that would be burned is up to five times greater than the amount of bagasse, which clearly indicates the dimension of the problem to be faced. This is an additional challenge to overcome.