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FanPost

About Those Walkoffs

Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports

A couple of days ago, before LoMo made his hopes come true, Colin O'Keefe tweeted this out:

As Colin was tweeting I was poking around walkoff data in bbref myself. Here's a little deeper dive into the walkoff stats over the last 15 years. First here's walkoff wins and losses by team this millenium. See if you can find the Mariners (I'll give you a hint, they are at the bottom).

Wins Losses Net
OAK 139 99 40
CIN 129 100 29
LAD 129 109 20
MIN 116 96 20
TBR 128 109 19
CLE 124 109 15
PHI 122 110 12
SDP 122 110 12
MIA 119 111 8
SFG 122 115 7
WSN/MON 116 110 6
LAA 115 110 5
MIL 113 110 3
NYY 99 97 2
STL 108 107 1
TEX 94 95 -1
KCR 94 100 -6
BAL 102 109 -7
BOS 101 109 -8
CHW 106 115 -9
NYM 107 116 -9
ATL 105 115 -10
DET 97 109 -12
ARI 104 118 -14
CHC 99 113 -14
PIT 99 113 -14
COL 102 117 -15
HOU 81 97 -16
TOR 99 120 -21
SEA 90 133 -43

Wow, that's pretty bad. What pitchers were responsible for all those walkoff losses? Here's some of your leaders.

Brandon League 8
Kazuhiro Sasaki 8
Miguel Batista 6
Julio Mateo 6
Eddie Guardado 5
David Aardsma 5
Brandon Morrow 5
Arthur Rhodes 4
Mark Lowe 4
Yoervis Medina 4
Fernando Rodney 3
J.J. Putz 3
Shigetoshi Hasegawa 3
Jeff Nelson 3
John Halama 3
Dan Cortes 3
Dominic Leone 3
Tom Wilhelmsen 3

Of course those numbers are not scaled for number of opportunities to give up a walkoff hit. In any case I do find it a bit sad that Dominic Leone has had the opportunity to give up 3 walkoffs in his short career. Seems unfair to put him those high leverage situations. But if we can't blame the pitchers, who can we blame?

Well, here's a little chart that shows the evolution of each team's net walkoff number starting in Y2K. Each time they win in a walkoff their line ticks up, each time they lose it ticks down. See if you can figure out who I blame.

walkoffchart.0.png

The M's actually won more walkoffs than they lost in 2009, but since then, as Colin pointed out, it's been a disaster. Almost all of the teams are bunched between -20 and +20 except for Seattle and Oakland. Almost makes you think GMs matter.

OK that's the bad news, but we won a few walkoffs as well. Let's take a look at good news - who are the batters that got the walkoff hits for us?

Jose Lopez 6
Ichiro Suzuki 5
Richie Sexson 5
Yuniesky Betancourt 5
Mark McLemore 4
Mike Cameron 4
Adrian Beltre 3
Bret Boone 3
Franklin Gutierrez 3
John Jaso 3
John Olerud 3

That was a surprise. Jose Lopez and Yuni at the top of the list? Yup:

Date Tm Rslt Pitcher Batter Play Description
5/22/09 SFG L 1-2 Pat Misch Jose Lopez Single to LF (Fly Ball to Deep LF Line); Balentien Scores; Branyan to 3B; Johnson to 2B
5/3/09 OAK L 7-8 Dana Eveland Jose Lopez Single to CF (Fly Ball to Short CF); Gutierrez Scores/unER; Betancourt to 3B; Suzuki to 2B
5/1/09 OAK L 7-8 Russ Springer Jose Lopez Single to RF (Line Drive to Short RF); Chavez Scores; Sweeney to 3B; Branyan to 2B
4/14/09 LAA L 2-3 Scot Shields Yuniesky Betancourt Reached on E1 (throw)/Sacrifice Bunt (Bunt to Short 1B Line); Gutierrez Scores/No RBI/unER
5/27/08 BOS L 3-4 Mike Timlin Jose Lopez Single to LF (Line Drive to Deep LF Line); Balentien Scores; Suzuki to 3B
9/12/07 OAK L 5-6 Andrew Brown Yuniesky Betancourt Single to CF (Line Drive); Jimerson Scores; Vidro to 2B
8/1/07 LAA L 7-8 Justin Speier Yuniesky Betancourt Single to LF (Ground Ball thru Weak 3B); Beltre Scores; Burke to 3B; Lopez to 2B
6/27/07 BOS L 1-2 Joel Pineiro Jose Lopez Double to CF (Fly Ball to Deep LF); Suzuki Scores
9/9/06 TEX L 2-3 Josh Rupe Jose Lopez Single to CF (Fly Ball to Deep LF-CF); Ibanez Scores; Perez to 3B; Johjima to 2B
4/24/06 CHW L 3-4 Brandon McCarthy Yuniesky Betancourt Single to LF (Ground Ball); Bloomquist Scores; Reed to 2B
9/14/05 LAA L 9-10 Francisco Rodriguez Yuniesky Betancourt Single to LF (Ground Ball); Santiago Scores; Dobbs to 2B

Wonder why I don't remember this gem from 2006: Yuni hits a single, Bloomquist scores, Reed to 2nd. It's like the replacement-level all stars. All I can say is that if your good news arrives in the form of Yuniesky Betancourt and Jose Lopez, there isn't really any good news.