A fire is smoldering in Bridgeview, the flames only just beginning to rise above the ashes, licking at the proverbial boots of the MLS. The Rekindling of the Chicago Fire is upon us. Nelson Rodriguez has thrown the logs of life onto the hearth of Harlem; logs such as Nemanja Nikolic, Juninho, and Dax McCarty. Coach Paunovic is adding his gas-powered tactics to the inglenook to instigate a blaze that will consume the reigning MLS elite, as we know it. The Men in Red and their supporters lie in wait, ready to fan the flames. A hushed silence at first, and then, there, starting in Section 8, an insidious whisper turns all too quickly into a roar:
FIRE! FIRE! FIRE FIRE FIRE!
If you can't tell, I am beyond excited! These are good players, championship calibre, that should serve to rekindle the passion of a long neglected fan base. MLS supporters will recognize the names of Juninho and Dax: Juninho staking his claim to fame as a part of three MLS championship winning teams in LA, and Dax, captaining the NY Red Bulls to the third best record in the league in 2016, besides putting in the work to help add two MLS Supporter Shields to their shelves. The wild card of the bunch is Nemanja Nikolic, yet he doesn't seem like such a wild card when you take a closer look: a proven track record of goal scoring wherever he goes, and Champions League experience, to boot. He is expected by some to challenge for the MLS Scoring title. For more information detailing these players’ intricacies and the new direction of the team I suggest a search through the Twitter-sphere for contributors to the excellent Chicago Fire blog and podcast community: #CF97. I am here to discuss something else.
Last Season:
Goals For: Something the Fire were extremely lacking in last season, showing up in the bottom five teams for goals scored thanks to the 42 they managed to prod across the line. This issue has been addressed by the addition of Nikolic. This titan among mortals led Polish League Ekstraklasa the past one and a half seasons in scoring with 40 goals in 56 appearances. Based upon past history and if healthy, expecting Niko to pot 18+ goals sounds about right. That 18+ tally would place him inside the top five of MLS Goal Scorers each of the last five seasons. With a surefire scoring boost such as that, in addition to the other moves, the Fire should be able to challenge for the playoffs. After all the league leaders in scoring, NYCFC, led with 62. But despite that potential impending goal boost, the Fire may not be as close to actually securing the playoffs as it would seem, which brings me to
Goals Against: To go with that sputtering offense, the Fire paired it with one of the league's most porous defenses, allowing for 58 goals conceded. Now painted over by loaning in Juninho (with an option to purchase) and the heist of the offseason, Dax. A better midfielder pairing (on paper) in the MLS will be hard to find. Returning to the stats: The goals for and against combined for a woeful -16 Goal Differential. Good for worst in the league. These stats suggested that much needed to be done on both sides of the ball. The question is: has the Front Office done enough to address these statistics?
Expectations:
At the moment, I would suggest the Front Office has not. Clearly, enough attention has been put into the Forward and Midfield corps that we should see a measurable rise in the quality of play. I think it should be safe to expect an increase of at least 15 goals to their 42 GF. As for the other side of the ball, I’d say that Dax and Juninho are good enough to knock off at least 8 of those goals from the 58 conceded, if not a few more. Bearing those guesstimated stats in mind for this season: a conservative guesstimate of 57 GF with 50 GA, this equates to a positive Goal Differential of +7. But is a +7 GD enough to help the Fire squeak into the playoffs?
If you consider last year's table as an indicator, then the answer is yes. A positive goal differential should spell PLAYOFFS, according to last year. However, you don’t need to go that far back in the history of the MLS to find instances when playoffs were not in the offing for a team with a positive goal differential. San Jose with +2 in 2015. Portland with +9 in 2014. Vancouver with +8 in 2013. None of these teams made the playoffs, with, perhaps, Portland’s failure standing out as the most statistically significant, as far as my eyeballs were able to spot. They had the third most goals in the league that year, with 61. Their defense slotted in at just above the bottom five, with 52 goals conceded. Now the historical significance: The Timbers Goal Differential of +9 stands out as the largest positive Goal Differential for a team that failed to make the playoffs in the last ten years of MLS competition. (It may even be the largest positive GD in all of MLS's short history, but I didn't check that far back.) We have now established that a positive GD does not necessarily equal playoffs. Mid table may be where we find the Fire at seasons end, and that may not be enough to push them ahead of that thin red line.
Should the Fire be able to pull off such a drastic change in GD this season, rising far above their -16 of the 2016 season to get near that estimated +7, the fans will certainly be pleased, but will they be seeing playoff games? Possibly not, as the Fire have not put any attention into their back line, as of yet. In addition, the amount of games that were lost or tied within the last 10 minutes of the match were cause for alarm. Coach Veljko Paunovic spoke to this issue early on media day. Meanwhile, GM Nelson Rodriguez has let it be known that the Fire Front Office are satisfied with CB Johan Kappelhoff and Michael Harrington duking it out over the Right Back spot, but in the same breath, admitted that the organization wouldn't mind adding some depth to increase the competition for spots on the back line.
This back line being their most glaring hole, in my opinion, I expected a signing to bolster it weeks ago. Chicagoan Jonathan Spector, a rumored target, would have been a solid addition. Hearing it reported that the Fire passed on Spector, I would have to think that the Front Office must have something up their sleeve. With deadline day in Europe fast approaching, I’m still holding my breath for that Marquee Signing. There is rumored to be more than adequate resources in the Fire’s coffer, so their unwillingness to bolster the back line certainly seems odd, if not illogical.
As it is, Nelson Rodriguez’s interviews seem to suggest that he has been wheeling and dealing, and will continue to do so until the MLS Transfer Deadline closes on May 8. I hope to see some progress with the back line as I fully believe that being able to make the playoffs depends on an addition to that particular unit.
Until then, I will remain utterly pleased with the offseason the Fire Organization has put together so far. The direction of this team is pointed up, where just months ago, it looked without a compass. Somehow, in just 4 signings, Veljko and Nelson’s plan has finally emerged from the fog, taking observable shape on the pitch. The positive moves of the latest transfer window have elicited a modicum of patience among the #CF97 community. Even if playoffs are not in the offing for this season, exciting times are surely in store for the Chicago Fire Soccer Club and its supporters. With every passing day of the pre-season, I, for one, cannot wait to see who will be starting the season opener on March 4th!
Come on you Men in Red!