MMQB: Back Down to Earth

The Frogs lost in heartbreaking fashion to the Baylor Bears this past Saturday in a game that was indicative of the season as a whole. TCU fans saw problems that had seemingly been addressed flare up again in Waco leading to a frustrating 37-34 loss. TCU moved to 3-3 in the Big 12 and 5-4 overall with this game but the most concerning record is that TCU is now 1-3 against in-state opponents in 2024.

The Good

Josh Hoover: After a few weeks of struggling with turnovers, Josh Hoover bounced back with an excellent game against Baylor. Hoover racked up 333 passing yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions while completing over 70% of his passes. Hoover looked confident and decisive all night and kept the Frogs in the game despite some defensive struggles. A big focus for TCU had been to play complementary football and Hoover did a great job of helping his defense out, leading a TCU offense that did not turn the ball over against Baylor. Hoover did a very good job going through his progressions and spread the ball around well with eight different Horned Frogs making a catch on Saturday. Hoover and the offense as a whole did a good job pushing the ball down the field and using all three levels of the passing game. The version of Josh Hoover that showed up against Baylor was everything Frog fans hope Josh Hoover can be.

Wide Receivers: TCU’s offense was humming on Saturday night with 444 yards of total offense and a large part of that was due to great play from the TCU wide receivers. Jack Bech had an excellent day with five catches for 98 yards and two touchdowns. His ability to separate against man coverage and reliable hands have been very important for the TCU offense this season. Jordyn Bailey caught his third career touchdown pass with one of the most impressive catches I have ever seen. Bailey has excellent speed and I would like to see him featured in the offense more. Savion Williams led the team in receptions and carries with eight catches for 92 receiving yards and eight carries for 57 rushing yards. Williams was a true triple threat against Baylor as he also threw for a touchdown on a well-designed jump pass to Bech on a fourth down in the red zone. Eric McAlister had another solid game with three catches for 48 yards providing more evidence that he should receive more targets and playing time. The receiving corps for TCU has been the most consistent skill position all season and put up another great game against Baylor.

Devean Deal: Devean Deal has seen an increase in playing time in recent games due to an injury to Cooper McDonald and has taken full advantage with excellent play in three straight games. The Tulane transfer has four sacks in the last three games with one coming on Saturday against Baylor. Deal provides some versatility to the TCU defense as a solid pass rusher and run defender that Andy Avalos can move around the defensive front. The pass rush has looked solid the past few games for the Frogs and Deal’s strong play is a big reason for that.

The Bad:

Run defense: After good performances against both Utah and Texas Tech, both teams with solid running backs, I was hopeful that TCU’s run defense had turned a corner and that the early season struggles were mostly due to adapting to a new scheme. Coming into the game, Baylor averaged 176 yards per game on the ground which would rank around 50th in the nation, by no means a bad rushing attack but far from an elite one and I hoped that TCU would be able to at least slow down the Baylor ground game. Those dreams were crushed on Saturday as Baylor ran the ball with ease against the Frogs, totaling 257 yards and five touchdowns on the ground. Bryson Washington, specifically, had plenty of success against TCU with 26 carries for 196 yards and four touchdowns.

This game was a complete dismantling of the TCU defensive front both from a physicality and a tackling standpoint. The Baylor offensive line completely dominated the TCU front at the point of attack, generating movement and holes for Baylor running backs to run through. TCU did suffer injuries to defensive tackles during the game but the Frogs still needed to do a better job on the defensive line of holding their ground and preventing offensive linemen from getting to the second level. The linebackers and secondary did not have a good game in run defense either as both tackling and reading the play were issues. Washington and Sawyer Robertson made plenty of TCU defenders miss on Saturday, compounding the issue created by the lack of physicality at the point of attack.

The linebackers and secondary needed to do a better job sorting through traffic and meeting the running back in the hole. Far too often, TCU defenders jumped into the wrong gap, leaving a huge hole for a Baylor running back to run through. This was not an overly complicated rushing attack from Baylor with lots of misdirection and eye candy either, just poor reads from TCU defenders. The Frogs failed to execute in run defense at all three levels on Saturday.

Drops: The offense scored 34 points on Saturday and had a longer time of possession than Baylor did so this is mostly just nitpicking but there were missed opportunities with dropped passes. The one that sticks out the most was a drop by Williams that would have been a walk-in touchdown had he made the catch but there were also two drops by the Frogs on the touchdown drive to tie the game late in the fourth quarter. The TCU passing offense overall had a great game on Saturday but there were a few drops to clean up.

Inability to Force Turnovers: TCU’s defense has struggled in more than a few areas this season but the most underrated issue has been the inability to force turnovers. The Frogs have forced just seven turnovers through nine games which is tied for 115th out of 133 teams in the FBS. That is very bad and cannot be chalked up to fumble luck either as the TCU defense has recovered 50% of the fumbles it has forced. The TCU secondary has struggled to create interceptions with just four through nine games. A defense that is not good against the run and cannot create turnovers is a recipe for disaster.

Surrender Punt: I hated the decision to punt in the fourth quarter on fourth and two from the Baylor 46-yard line. The TCU offense was playing well and has been playing well all year. I do not know why we did not have confidence in our offense to pick up two yards and keep the ball out of Baylor’s hands. Sure, TCU has struggled to run the ball at times but I am very confident that Jack Bech can create separation on a slant route against what would have likely been man coverage for a first down. Beyond having confidence in the TCU offense, the Frog defense had struggled in the second half and it did not feel like worse field position was going to slow down the Baylor offense (spoiler alert: it did not). Punting in that situation felt like a playing not to lose decision.

Play of the Game

Jordyn Bailey channeling his inner OBJ.