Volume 28, Issue 3

We investigate the welfare cost of anticipated inflation, when the volume of credit card transactions is included in measured monetary service flows. We use the credit-card-augmented Divisia monetary aggregates in a nonlinear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) New Keynesian model and calculate the welfare costs of inflation. The welfare costs of inflation with credit card services included are greater than without them in the New Keynesian DSGE model. Because of the complexity of the model’s dynamical structure, we are not aware of a simple explanation for the increased welfare sensitivity to inflation.

We study the role of co-jumps in the interest rate futures markets. To disentangle continuous part of quadratic covariation from co-jumps, we localize the co-jumps precisely through wavelet coefficients and identify statistically significant ones. Using high frequency data about U.S. and European yield curves we quantify the effect of co-jumps on their correlation structure. Empirical findings reveal much stronger co-jumping behavior of the U.S. yield curves in comparison to the European one. Further, we connect co-jumping behavior to the monetary policy announcements, and study effect of 103 FOMC and 119 ECB announcements on the identified co-jumps during the period from January 2007 to December 2017.

Unprecedented increases in European natural gas prices observed between late 2021 and mid 2022 raise a question about the sources of these events. In this article we investigate this topic using a time-varying parameters structural vector autoregressive model for crude oil, US and European natural gas prices. This flexible framework allows us to measure how disturbances specific to the analyzed markets propagate within the system and how this propagation mechanism evolves in time. Our findings are fourfold. First, we show that oil prices are hardly affected by shocks specific to natural gas markets, whether in the US or Europe. Second, we demonstrate that oil shocks have limited impact on US natural gas prices, which points to the decoupling of both markets. Third, we evidence that over longer horizons natural gas prices in Europe are still mostly determined by oil shocks, with idiosyncratic disturbances leading to short-lived decoupling of both commodity prices. Fourth, we illustrate that along the gradual shift from oil price indexation to gas-on-gas competition, the contribution of idiosyncratic shocks to European natural gas prices has increased. Nonetheless, we discuss why the notion that EU natural gas and crude oil prices have decoupled might be premature.

This paper investigates the stability of threshold autoregressive models. We review recent research on stability issues from both a theoretical and empirical standpoint. We provide a sufficient condition for the stationarity and ergodicity of threshold autoregressive models by applying the concept of joint spectral radius to the switching system. The joint spectral radius criterion offers a generally applicable criterion to determine the stability in a threshold autoregressive model.

The world today presents significant environmental concerns for humans, such as smog and warmer temperatures, but we also need to think about how to accomplish economic growth that is sustainable. Therefore, this exploration researches the asymmetric effect of renewable energy consumption, economic growth and financial development on carbon emanation in the emerging economies. For this reason, this investigation uses Panel ARDL and PMG estimator. The consequences of PMG estimator demonstrate that information and communication technologies reduce the carbon emanations in the sample region. Additionally, renewable energy consumption also impedes the carbon emanations. The results also suggest that financial development additionally builds the carbon emissions but the impact is very minor. Finally, economic growth and population are also contributing toward carbon emissions. The power effective recommendation is vital to present the ICT assistance to confine the utilization of obsolete machinery for power generation.

This paper uses neoclassical microeconomic theory to investigate the demand for energy and interfuel substitution in India at the sectoral level. It makes full use of the relevant economic theory and econometrics and generates inference in terms of Allen and Morishima elasticities of substitution that are internally consistent with the data and nonlinear models used. The results indicate that the interfuel substitution elasticities are consistently below unity in the household and power sectors, revealing the limited ability to substitute between major energy commodities in these two sectors. However, significant substitution relationships are found in the industrial and transportation sectors, suggesting that energy price changes in these sectors will significantly shift the demand for energy and consumption. Based on measured elasticities of substitution, we also discuss implications of energy price shocks on inflation and inflation targeting strategies by the central bank.