[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/ Skip to content
Licensed Unlicensed Requires Authentication Published by De Gruyter November 16, 2023

Zero-Inflated Autoregressive Conditional Duration Model for Discrete Trade Durations with Excessive Zeros

  • Francisco Blasques , Vladimír Holý ORCID logo EMAIL logo and Petra Tomanová ORCID logo EMAIL logo

Abstract

In finance, durations between successive transactions are usually modeled by the autoregressive conditional duration model based on a continuous distribution omitting zero values. Zero or close-to-zero durations can be caused by either split transactions or independent transactions. We propose a discrete model allowing for excessive zero values based on the zero-inflated negative binomial distribution with score dynamics. This model allows to distinguish between the processes generating split and standard transactions. We use the existing theory on score models to establish the invertibility of the score filter and verify that sufficient conditions hold for the consistency and asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood of the model parameters. In an empirical study, we find that split transactions cause between 92 % and 98 % of zero and close-to-zero values. Furthermore, the loss of decimal places in the proposed approach is less severe than the incorrect treatment of zero values in continuous models.


Corresponding authors: Vladimír Holý and Petra Tomanová, Department of Econometrics, Prague University of Economics and Business, Prague, Czechia, E-mail: (V. Holý), (P. Tomanová) (V. Holý) (P. Tomanová)

Funding source: Czech Science Foundation

Award Identifier / Grant number: 23-06139S

Funding source: Dutch Science Foundation

Award Identifier / Grant number: VI.Vidi.195.099

Funding source: Internal Grant Agency of the Prague University of Economics and Business

Award Identifier / Grant number: F4/21/2018

Acknowledgments

Computational resources were supplied by the project “e-Infrastruktura CZ” (e-INFRA LM2018140) provided within the program Projects of Large Research, Development and Innovations Infrastructures. We would like to thank Michal Černý and Tomáš Cipra for their comments. We would also like to thank participants of the 61st Meeting of EURO Working Group for Commodities and Financial Modelling (Kaunas, May 16–18, 2018) and the second International Conference on Econometrics and Statistics (Hong Kong, June 19–21, 2018) for fruitful discussions.

  1. Research funding: The work of Francisco Blasques was supported by the Dutch Science Foundation (NWO) under project VI.Vidi.195.099. The work of Vladimír Holý was supported by the Internal Grant Agency of the University of Economics, Prague under project F4/21/2018. The work of Petra Tomanová was supported by the Czech Science Foundation under project 23-06,139S.

A. Proofs of Asymptotic Properties

Proof of Proposition 1

Following Straumann and Mikosch (2006) and Blasques et al. (2022), we obtain invertibility by verifying that the conditions of Theorem 3.1 of Bougerol (1993) hold uniformly on a non-empty set Θ, for any initialization f ̂ 1 ( θ ) In particular, we note that a ln+ bounded moment holds at i = 1 since

E log + sup θ Θ c + b f ̂ 1 ( θ ) + a s ( x 1 , f ̂ 1 ( θ ) ) 4 ln 2 + E ln + sup θ Θ | c | + E ln + sup θ Θ b f ̂ 1 ( θ ) + E ln + sup θ Θ a s ( x 1 , f ̂ 1 ( θ ) ) 4 ln 2 + E ln + sup θ Θ | c | + E ln + sup θ Θ | b | + E ln + sup θ Θ f ̂ 1 ( θ ) + E ln + sup θ Θ | a | + E sup θ Θ s ( x 1 , f ̂ 1 ( θ ) ) 4 ln 2 + max { | c | , | c + | } + max { | b | , | b + | } + sup θ Θ f ̂ 1 ( θ ) + max { | a | , | a + | } + E ln + sup θ Θ s ( x 1 , f ̂ 1 ( θ ) ) < ,

where the three inequalities follow by norm sub-additivity, as well as the ln+ sub-additive and sub-multiplicative inequalities in Lemma 2.2 of Straumann and Mikosch (2006), and the last bound follows since c, b, a are strictly positive and lie on the compact Θ and f ̂ 1 ( θ ) is a given real number. We also have that E ln + sup θ Θ | s ( x 1 , f ̂ 1 ( θ ) ) | < as

E ln + sup θ Θ s ( x i , f ̂ 1 ( θ ) , θ ) = P [ x i = 0 ] ln + sup θ Θ s ( 0 , f ̂ 1 ( θ ) , θ ) + P [ x i > 0 ] E x i > 0 ln + sup θ Θ s ( x i , f ̂ 1 ( θ ) , θ ) ln + sup θ Θ s ( 0 , f ̂ 1 ( θ ) , θ ) + E x i > 0 ln + sup θ Θ s ( x i , f ̂ 1 ( θ ) , θ ) < ,

where E x i > 0 denotes the conditional expectation E x i > 0 [ ] = E [ | x i > 0 ] and

E ln + sup θ Θ | s ( 0 , f ̂ 1 , θ ) | = ln + sup θ Θ | s ( 0 , f ̂ 1 , θ ) | = ln + sup θ Θ ( π 1 ) exp ( f ̂ 1 ) ( α exp ( f ̂ 1 ) + 1 ) 1 1 + π ( α exp ( f ̂ 1 ) + 1 ) α 1 π 1 ln + sup θ Θ | π 1 | + ln + sup θ Θ | exp ( f ̂ 1 ) | + ln + sup θ Θ | ( α exp ( f ̂ 1 ) + 1 ) 1 | + ln + sup θ Θ 1 + π ( α exp ( f ̂ 1 ) + 1 ) α 1 π 1 < ,

which holds as the parameter vector θ lies on the compact set Θ, and f ̂ 1 is a given point in R , and

E x i > 0 ln + sup θ Θ s ( x i , f ̂ 1 , θ ) = E x 1 > 0 ln + sup θ Θ x 1 exp ( f ̂ 1 ) ( α exp ( f ̂ 1 ) + 1 ) 1 E x 1 > 0 ln + sup θ Θ x 1 exp ( f ̂ 1 ) 2 ln ( 2 ) + E x 1 > 0 ln + | x 1 | + ln + | exp ( f ̂ 1 ) | < ,

since x 1 has a logarithmic moment, Θ is compact and f ̂ 1 R .

Finally, the contraction condition of Bougerol (1993) is satisfied uniformly in θ ∈ Θ since

E ln sup f sup θ Θ a s ( x i , f , θ ) f + b < 0 P [ x i = 0 ] ln sup f sup θ Θ a s ( 0 , f , θ ) f + b + P [ x i > 0 ] E x i > 0 ln sup f sup θ Θ a s ( x i , f , θ ) f + b < 0

where

E ln sup f ̂ sup θ Θ a s ( x i , f ̂ , θ ) f ̂ + b < 0 P [ x i = 0 ] ln sup f ̂ sup θ Θ a s ( 0 , f ̂ , θ ) f ̂ + b + P [ x i > 0 ] E x i > 0 ln sup f ̂ sup θ Θ a s ( x i , f ̂ , θ ) f ̂ + b < 0 π + ( 1 π ) α 1 α 1 + f ̂ i α 1 ln sup f ̂ sup θ Θ a ( π 1 ) 2 exp ( 2 f ̂ ) ( α exp ( f ̂ ) + 1 ) 2 π ( α exp ( f ̂ ) + 1 ) 1 / α π + 1 2 a ( π 1 ) exp ( f ̂ ) ( exp ( f ̂ ) 1 ) ( α exp ( f ̂ ) + 1 ) 2 π ( α exp ( f ̂ ) + 1 ) 1 / α π + 1 + b + 1 π ( 1 π ) α 1 α 1 + f ̂ i α 1 E x i > 0 ln sup f ̂ sup θ Θ a ( α x i + 1 ) exp ( f ̂ ) ( α exp ( f ̂ ) + 1 ) 2 + b < 0 ln sup θ Θ a ( π 1 ) 2 2 α + sup θ Θ a ( π 1 ) α 2 + sup θ Θ | b | + E x i > 0 ln sup θ Θ a α x i + 1 4 α + sup θ Θ | b | < 0 .

This can be simplified by noting that

exp ( 2 f ̂ ) ( α exp ( f ̂ ) + 1 ) 2 1 2 α , π ( α exp ( f ̂ ) + 1 ) 1 / α π + 1 2 1 , exp ( f ̂ ) ( exp ( f ̂ ) 1 ) ( α exp ( f ̂ ) + 1 ) 2 1 α 2 .

This, in turn, implies that

E ln sup f ̂ sup θ Θ a s ( x i , f ̂ , θ ) f ̂ + b < 0 sup θ Θ a ( π 1 ) 2 2 α + sup θ Θ a | π 1 | α 2 + sup θ Θ b + < 1 E x i > 0 ln sup θ Θ a α x i + 1 4 α + b + < 0 a + ( π 1 ) 2 2 α + a + | π 1 | ( α ) 2 + b + < 1 E x i > 0 ln a + α + x i + 1 4 α + b + < 0 .

Proof of Lemma 1

This proof follows that of Blasques et al. (2022, Theorem 4.6). The existence and measurability of θ ̂ n is obtained through an application of White (1994, Theorem 2.11) or Gallant and White (1988, Lemma 2.1, Theorem 2.2), as Θ is compact and the log likelihood is continuous in θ and measurable in x i . The consistency of the ML estimator, θ ̂ n ( f ̂ 1 ) a s θ 0 , is obtained by White (1994, Theorem 3.4) or Gallant and White (1988, Theorem 3.3). Below, we note that we satisfy the sufficient conditions of uniform convergence of the log likelihood function

sup θ Θ | L ̂ n ( θ ) L ( θ ) | a s 0 f ̂ 1 F  as  n ,

and the identifiable uniqueness of the maximizer θ 0 ∈ Θ introduced in White (1994),

sup θ : θ θ 0 > ϵ L ( θ ) < L ( θ 0 ) ϵ > 0 .

The uniform convergence of the criterion is obtained since, by norm sub-additivity, we can split the log likelihood as follows

(17) sup θ Θ | L ̂ n ( θ ) L ( θ ) | sup θ Θ | L ̂ n ( θ ) L n ( θ ) | + sup θ Θ | L n ( θ ) L ( θ ) | .

The first term on the right-hand-side of (17) vanishes if | l ̂ i ( θ ) l i ( θ ) | a s 0 since

| L ̂ n ( θ ) L n ( θ ) | 1 n n | l ̂ i ( θ ) l i ( θ ) | a s 0 ,

and we have that

sup θ Θ | l ̂ i ( θ ) l i ( θ ) | sup θ Θ sup f | ( x i , f , θ ) | sup θ Θ | f ̂ i ( θ ) f i ( θ ) | a s 0 f ̂ 1 F  as  n ,

where sup θ Θ | f ̂ i ( θ ) f i ( θ ) | a s 0 follows from the invertibility of the filter (proved in Proposition 1) and the product vanishes by the bounded logarithmic moment of the score E ln + sup f | ( x i , f ) | < (see Lemma 2.1 in Straumann and Mikosch 2006). The logarithmic moment E ln + sup f | ( x i , f ) | < follows as

E ln + | s ( 0 , f ̂ i ) | = E ln + exp ( f ̂ i ) ( π 1 ) ( α exp ( f ̂ i ) + 1 ) 1 + π ( α exp ( f ̂ i ) + 1 ) α 1 π < , E x i > 0 ln + | s ( x i , f ̂ i ) | = x i exp ( f ̂ i ) α exp ( f ̂ i ) + 1 < for  x i > 0 .

Note that since we use unit scaling in Lemma 1, we have that ∇(x i , f) = s∇(x i , f). The uniform convergence of the second term on the right-hand-side of (17)

sup θ Θ | L n ( θ ) L ( θ ) | a s 0 f ̂ 1 F  as  n ,

follows by application of the ergodic theorem for separable Banach spaces in Rao (1962). We note that the { L n ( ) } t N has strictly stationary and ergodic elements as it depends on the limit strictly stationary and ergodic filter taking values in the Banach space of continuous functions C ( Θ , R ) equipped with sup norm. We also note that L n (⋅) has one bounded moment since E [ L n ( θ ) ] 1 n n E [ l i ( θ ) ] < . In particular, the bounded moment for the log likelihood holds trivially if the data has a bounded moment E[x i ] <  since ln  i (x i , θ) is bounded in μ i and bounded by a linear function in x i ,

i ( 0 , θ ) = ln P [ X i = 0 | f ̂ i ( θ ) , θ ] = ln π + ( 1 π ) α 1 α 1 + exp ( f ̂ i ( θ ) ) α 1 , i ( x i , θ ) = ln P [ X i = x i | f ̂ i ( θ ) , θ ] = ln ( 1 π ) + ln Γ x i + α 1 Γ ( x i + 1 ) Γ ( α 1 ) + 1 α ln α 1 α 1 + exp ( f ̂ i ( θ ) ) + x i ln exp ( f ̂ i ( θ ) ) α 1 + exp ( f ̂ i ( θ ) ) for  x i > 0 .

The identifiable uniqueness (see e.g. White 1994) follows from the compactness of Θ, the assumed uniqueness of θ 0, and the continuity of the limit likelihood function E[ i (θ)] in θ ∈ Θ.

Proof of Lemma 2

This proof follows Blasques et al. (2022, Theorem 4.16). In particular, we obtain the asymptotic normality using the usual expansion argument found e.g. in White (1994, Theorem 6.2) by establishing:

  1. The consistency of θ ̂ n a s θ 0 i n t ( Θ ) , , which follows immediately by Lemma 1.

  2. The as twice continuous differentiability of L n ( θ , f ̂ 1 ) in θ ∈ Θ, which holds trivially for our zero-inflated score model.

  3. The asymptotic normality of the score, which can be shown to hold by verifying that,

    (18) n L n ( θ 0 ) θ d N 0 , I ( θ 0 )  as  n ,

    and

    (19) n L ̂ ( θ 0 ) θ L ( θ 0 ) θ a s 0  as  n .

    The asymptotic normality in (18) is obtained by application of a central limit theorem for martingale difference sequences to the score, after noting that the score

    L n ( θ 0 ) θ = 1 n n i ( x i , θ 0 ) θ + i ( x i , θ 0 ) f i f i ( θ 0 ) θ .

    has two bounded moments. In particular,

    E L n ( θ 0 ) θ 2 E i ( x i , θ 0 ) θ 2 + E i ( x i , θ 0 ) f i f i ( θ 0 ) θ 2 < ,

    where the bounds

    E i ( x i , θ 0 ) θ 2 < and E i ( x i , θ 0 ) f i f i ( θ 0 ) θ 2 < ,

    hold, for example, under the assumption that

    E i ( x i , θ 0 ) f i 4 < and E i ( x i , θ 0 ) θ 4 < ;

    by a generalized Holder’s inequality as used e.g. in Blasques et al. (2022). For the negative binomial model it is easy to see for example that the four bounded moments for score term ∂ℓ i (x i , θ 0)/∂f i can be obtained if the data has four bounded moments, E|x i |4 < , by noting that

    E sup θ Θ s ( 0 , f ̂ i , θ ) 4 sup μ sup θ Θ s ( 0 , f ̂ i , θ ) 4 = sup μ sup θ Θ ( π 1 ) exp ( f ̂ i ) ( α exp ( f ̂ i ) + 1 ) 1 1 + π ( α exp ( f ̂ i ) + 1 ) α 1 π 1 4 < ,

    since s ( 0 , f ̂ i , θ ) is uniformly bounded in f ̂ i . Furthermore, by application of the so-called c n -inequality, there exists a finite constant k such that,

    E x i > 0 sup θ Θ | s ( x i , f ̂ i , θ ) | 4 = E x i > 0 sup θ Θ x i exp ( f ̂ i ) ( α exp ( f ̂ i ) + 1 ) 1 4 k sup θ Θ 1 α E x i > 0 x i 4 + k | α 1 | 4 < .

    Additionally, following the argument of Blasques et al. (2022, Theorem 4.14) and Straumann and Mikosch (2006, Lemma 2.1), the as convergence in (19) follows by the invertibility of the filter and its derivatives. The invertibility of the first derivative process can be verified by applying Theorem 2.10 in Straumann and Mikosch (2006). This theorem is analogue to Theorem 3.1 of Bougerol (1993), also used in the proof of Proposition 1 above, but it applies to perturbed stochastic sequences. For example, the updating equation for derivative process f i / c = f ̂ i / c takes the form

    f ̂ i + 1 c = 1 + b f ̂ i c + s ( x i , f ̂ i ) f ̂ i f ̂ i c = 1 + b + s ( x i , f ̂ i ) f ̂ i f ̂ i c .

    Hence, by application of Theorem 2.10 in Straumann and Mikosch (2006), the invertibility of this filter is ensured by (a) the invertibility of the filter { f ̂ i } i N (shown in Proposition 1); (b) the contraction condition E [ ln | b + s ( x i , f ̂ i ) / f ̂ i | ] < 0 ; and a logarithmic moment for 2 s ( x i , f ̂ i ) / f ̂ i 2 .

  4. The uniform convergence of the Hessian, is obtained through the invertibility of the filter and its derivative processes. In particular, a sufficient condition is for the first and second derivatives of the filtering process to converge almost surely, exponentially fast, to a limit stationary and ergodic sequence,

    f ̂ i ( θ 0 ) θ f i ( θ 0 ) θ e a s 0 and sup θ Θ 2 f ̂ i ( θ ) θ θ 2 f i ( θ ) θ θ e a s 0 as i ,

    with four bounded moments

    E f i ( θ 0 ) θ 4 < and E sup θ Θ 2 f i ( θ ) θ θ 4 < .

    and to have logarithmic moments for cross derivatives,

    E sup θ Θ 2 i ( x i , θ ) f i θ < , E sup θ Θ 2 i ( x i , θ ) f i 2 < and E sup θ Θ 2 i ( x i , θ ) θ θ < ;

    and also for the third-order derivatives of the log likelihood to have a uniform logarithmic bounded moment,

    E ln + sup θ Θ 3 i ( x i , θ 0 ) f i 2 θ < , E ln + sup θ Θ 3 i ( x i , θ 0 ) f i 3 < .

    and E l n + sup θ Θ 3 i ( x i , θ 0 ) θ θ f < ;

    Then by application of the ergodic theorem for separable Banach spaces in Rao (1962) to the limit Hessian (see also Blasques et al. 2022; Straumann and Mikosch 2006, Theorem 2.7 for additional details), we have,

    (20) sup θ Θ 2 L n ( θ ) θ θ E 2 i ( θ ) θ θ a s 0 as  n .

  5. The non-singularity of the limit L ( θ ) = E [ i ( θ ) ] = I ( θ ) follows by the uniqueness of θ 0 and the independence of derivative processes (Straumann and Mikosch 2006, Theorem 2.7).

B Model Evaluation

It is well know that ranking models based on their expected log-likelihood E[ i (θ 0)] evaluated at the best (pseudo-true) parameter θ 0 is equivalent to model selection based on minimizing the expected Kullback-Leibler divergence between the true distribution of the data and the model-implied distribution. The sample log-likelihood is however an asymptotically biased estimator of the expected log likelihood. Under restrictive conditions, Akaike (1973, 1974 showed that the bias is approximately given by the number of parameters of the model dim(θ). Since then, the AIC has been shown to consistently rank models according to the Kullback-Leibler divergence under considerably weaker conditions (Sin and White 1996; Konishi and Kitagawa 2008). Unfortunately, model specification and identification issues still exert a strong influence over the performance of in-sample information criteria.

For this reason, it could be interesting to consider criteria based on a validation sample. Lemma 3 highlights that log-likelihood based on an independent validation sample of m observations, n L ̂ m ( θ ̂ n ) , is asymptotically unbiased for nE[ i (θ 0)]. A proof can be found in Andrée, Blasques, and Koomen (2017).[5]

Lemma 3

Let the conditions of Lemma 1 hold. Then lim n , m E n L ̂ m ( θ ̂ n ) n E [ i ( θ 0 ) ] = 0 .

Lemma 4 uses a Diebold-Mariano test statistic (Diebold and Mariano 1995) to test for differences in log-likelihoods across different models obtained from the validation sample (see Andrée, Blasques, and Koomen 2017, for a proof). This test is also known as a logarithmic scoring rule, see e.g. Diks, Panchenko, and van Dijk (2011); Amisano and Giacomini (2007); Bao, Lee, and Saltoglu (2007). Given two models, A and B, let ̃ i A θ 0 A and ̃ i B θ 0 B denote their respective log-likelihood contributions at a certain time i (in the validation sample) evaluated at each model’s pseudo-true parameter. Define the log-likelihood difference

D i A , B ̃ i A θ 0 A ̃ i B θ 0 B .

Finally, define the Diebold-Mariano test statistic

D M m , n = m μ D A , B σ D A , B , μ D A , B = 1 m i = n + 1 n + m D i A , B , σ D A , B = 1 m 1 i = n + 1 n + m D i A , B μ D A , B 2 .

Lemma 4

(Validation-Sample Test). Let Lemma 1 hold for both models A and B, such that θ ̂ n A a s θ 0 A and θ ̂ n B a s θ 0 B as n → . Then we have that

DM m , n d N ( 0,1 ) as n , m ,

under the null hypothesis H 0 : E D m A , B = 0 , where σ D A , B is a consistent estimator of the standard deviation of D m A , B . If E D m A , B > 0 then DM m,n as n, m. Finally, if E D m A , B < 0 , then DM m,n → −.

C Generalized Gamma Distribution

The generalized gamma distribution is a continuous probability distribution and a three-parameter generalization of the two-parameter gamma distribution (Stacy 1962). It also contains the exponential distribution and the Weibull distribution as special cases. It uses the scale parameter β and two shape parameters θ and φ. The probability density function is

p ( x | β , θ , φ ) = 1 Γ θ φ β x β θ φ 1 e x β φ for  x ( 0 , ) .

The expected value and variance is

E [ X ] = β Γ θ + φ 1 Γ θ , v a r [ X ] = β 2 Γ θ + 2 φ 1 Γ θ β Γ θ + φ 1 Γ θ 2 .

The score vector is

( x ; β , θ , φ ) = φ β 1 x φ β φ θ φ ln x β 1 ψ 0 ( θ ) θ ln x β 1 x φ β φ ln x β 1 + φ 1 for  x ( 0 , ) .

Special cases of the generalized gamma distribution include the gamma distribution for φ = 1, the Weibull distribution for θ = 1 and the exponential distribution for θ = 1 and φ = 1.

References

Akaike, H. 1973. “Information Theory and an Extension of the Maximum Likelihood Principle.” In Proceedings of the 2nd International Symposium on Information Theory, 267–81. Budapest. https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-1-4612-1694-0_15.Search in Google Scholar

Akaike, H. 1974. “A New Look at the Statistical Model Identification.” IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control 19 (6): 716–23. https://doi.org/10.1109/tac.1974.1100705.Search in Google Scholar

Amisano, G., and R. Giacomini. 2007. “Comparing Density Forecasts via Weighted Likelihood Ratio Tests.” Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 25 (2): 177–90. https://doi.org/10.1198/073500106000000332.Search in Google Scholar

Andrée, B. P. J., F. Blasques, and E. Koomen. 2017. Smooth Transition Spatial Autoregressive Models. https://ssrn.com/abstract=2977830.10.2139/ssrn.2977830Search in Google Scholar

Andres, P., and A. Harvey. 2012. The Dynamic Location/Scale Model.Search in Google Scholar

Bao, Y., T. H. Lee, and B. Saltoǧlu. 2007. “Comparing Density Forecast Models.” Journal of Forecasting 26 (3): 203–25. https://doi.org/10.1002/for.1023.Search in Google Scholar

Bauwens, L. 2006. “Econometric Analysis of Intra-daily Trading Activity on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.” Monetary and Economic Studies 24 (1), 1–24. http://www.imes.boj.or.jp/research/abstracts/english/me24-1-1.html.Search in Google Scholar

Bauwens, L., and P. Giot. 2000. “The Logarithmic ACD Model: An Application to the Bid-Ask Quote Process of Three NYSE Stocks.” Annales d’Economie et Statistique 60: 117–49. https://doi.org/10.2307/20076257.Search in Google Scholar

Bauwens, L., and P. Giot. 2003. “Asymmetric ACD Models: Introducing Price Information in ACD Models.” Empirical Economics 28 (4): 709–31. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-003-0155-7.Search in Google Scholar

Bauwens, L., P. Giot, J. Grammig, and D. Veredas. 2004. “A Comparison of Financial Duration Models via Density Forecasts.” International Journal of Forecasting 20 (4): 589–609. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2003.09.014.Search in Google Scholar

Bauwens, L., and N. Hautsch. 2009. “Modelling Financial High Frequency Data Using Point Processes.” In Handbook of Financial Time Series. 1st ed., 953–79. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer. Chapter 41.10.1007/978-3-540-71297-8_41Search in Google Scholar

Bauwens, L, and D Veredas. 2004. “The Stochastic Conditional Duration Model: A Latent Variable Model for the Analysis of Financial Durations.” Journal of Econometrics 119 (2): 381–412. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0304-4076(03)00201-x.Search in Google Scholar

Bhatti, C. R. 2010. “The Birnbaum-Saunders Autoregressive Conditional Duration Model.” Mathematics and Computers in Simulation 80 (10): 2062–78. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.matcom.2010.01.011.Search in Google Scholar

Blasques, F., S. J. Koopman, and A. Lucas. 2015. “Information-Theoretic Optimality of Observation-Driven Time Series Models for Continuous Responses.” Biometrika 102 (2): 325–43. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/asu076.Search in Google Scholar

Blasques, F., J. van Brummelen, S. J. Koopman, and A. Lucas. 2022. “Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Score-Driven Models.” Journal of Econometrics 227 (2): 325–46. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2021.06.003.Search in Google Scholar

Bortoluzzo, A. B., P. A. Morettin, and C. M. C. Toloi. 2010. “Time-Varying Autoregressive Conditional Duration Model.” Journal of Applied Statistics 37 (5): 847–64. https://doi.org/10.1080/02664760902914458.Search in Google Scholar

Boswell, M., and G. P. Patil. 1970. “Chance Mechanisms Generating the Negative Binomial Distribution.” In Random Counts in Models and Structures, Vol. 1, edited by G. P. Patil, 3–22. Penn State University Press. http://www.psupress.org/books/titles/0-271-00114-3.html.Search in Google Scholar

Bougerol, P. 1993. “Kalman Filtering with Random Coefficients and Contractions.” SIAM Journal on Control and Optimization 31 (4): 942–59. https://doi.org/10.1137/0331041.Search in Google Scholar

Cameron, A. C., and P. K. Trivedi. 1986. “Econometric Models Based on Count Data: Comparisons and Applications of Some Estimators and Tests.” Journal of Applied Econometrics 1 (1): 29–53. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.3950010104.Search in Google Scholar

Cameron, A. C., and P. K. Trivedi. 2013. Regression Analysis of Count Data, 2nd ed. New York: Cambridge University Press.10.1017/CBO9781139013567Search in Google Scholar

Chen, F., F. X. Diebold, and F. Schorfheide. 2013. “A Markov-Switching Multifractal Inter-trade Duration Model, with Application to US Equities.” Journal of Econometrics 177 (2): 320–42. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2013.04.016.Search in Google Scholar

Christou, V., and K. Fokianos. 2014. “Quasi-Likelihood Inference for Negative Binomial Time Series Models.” Journal of Time Series Analysis 35 (1): 55–78. https://doi.org/10.1111/jtsa.12050.Search in Google Scholar

Cox, D. R. 1981. “Statistical Analysis of Time Series: Some Recent Developments.” Scandinavian Journal of Statistics 8 (2): 93–108. https://doi.org/10.2307/4615819.Search in Google Scholar

Creal, D., S. J. Koopman, and A. Lucas. 2013. “Generalized Autoregressive Score Models with Applications.” Journal of Applied Econometrics 28 (5): 777–95. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.1279.Search in Google Scholar

De Luca, G., and G. M. Gallo. 2004. “Mixture Processes for Financial Intradaily Durations.” Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics 8 (2): 1–18. https://doi.org/10.2202/1558-3708.1223.Search in Google Scholar

De Luca, G., and G. M. Gallo. 2009. “Time-Varying Mixing Weights in Mixture Autoregressive Conditional Duration Models.” Econometric Reviews 28 (1–3): 102–20. https://doi.org/10.1080/07474930802387944.Search in Google Scholar

De Luca, G., and P. Zuccolotto. 2003. “Finite and Infinite Mixtures for Financial Durations.” Metron – International Journal of Statistics 61 (3): 431–55. https://ideas.repec.org/a/mtn/ancoec/030307.html.Search in Google Scholar

Diebold, F. X., and R. S. Mariano. 1995. “Comparing Predictive Accuracy.” Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 13 (3): 253–63. https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.1995.10524599.Search in Google Scholar

Diks, C., V. Panchenko, and D. van Dijk. 2011. “Likelihood-Based Scoring Rules for Comparing Density Forecasts in Tails.” Journal of Econometrics 163 (2): 215–30. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2011.04.001.Search in Google Scholar

Engle, RF. 2000. “The Econometrics of Ultra-high-frequency Data.” Econometrica 68 (1): 1–22. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0262.00091.Search in Google Scholar

Engle, R. F., and J. R. Russell. 1998. “Autoregressive Conditional Duration: A New Model for Irregularly Spaced Transaction Data.” Econometrica 66 (5): 1127–62. https://doi.org/10.2307/2999632.Search in Google Scholar

Feng, D. 2004. “Stochastic Conditional Duration Models with “Leverage Effect” for Financial Transaction Data.” Journal of Financial Econometrics 2 (3): 390–421. https://doi.org/10.1093/jjfinec/nbh016.Search in Google Scholar

Fernandes, M., and J. Grammig. 2005. “Nonparametric Specification Tests for Conditional Duration Models.” Journal of Econometrics 127 (1): 35–68. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2004.06.003.Search in Google Scholar

Fernandes, M., and J. Grammig. 2006. “A Family of Autoregressive Conditional Duration Models.” Journal of Econometrics 130 (1): 1–23. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2004.08.016.Search in Google Scholar

Gallant, A. R., and H. White. 1988. A Unified Theory of Estimation and Inference for Nonlinear Dynamic Models, 1st ed. Oxford: Basil Blackwell. https://books.google.com/books?id=VVOqQgAACAAJ.Search in Google Scholar

Ghysels, E., C. Gouriéroux, and J. Jasiak. 2004. “Stochastic Volatility Duration Models.” Journal of Econometrics 119 (2): 413–33. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(03)00202-1.Search in Google Scholar

Gómez-Déniz, E., and J. V. Pérez-Rodríguez. 2016. “Conditional Duration Model and the Unobserved Market Heterogeneity of Traders: An Infinite Mixture of Non-exponentials.” Revista Colombiana de Estadística 39 (2): 307–23. https://doi.org/10.15446/rce.v39n2.51584.Search in Google Scholar

Gómez-Déniz, E., and J. V. Pérez-Rodríguez. 2017. “Mixture Inverse Gaussian for Unobserved Heterogeneity in the Autoregressive Conditional Duration Model.” Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods 46 (18): 9007–25. https://doi.org/10.1080/03610926.2016.1200094.Search in Google Scholar

Gorgi, P. 2018. “Integer-Valued Autoregressive Models with Survival Probability Driven by a Stochastic Recurrence Equation.” Journal of Time Series Analysis 39 (2): 150–71. https://doi.org/10.1111/jtsa.12272.Search in Google Scholar

Grammig, J., and K. O. Maurer. 2000. “Non-Monotonic Hazard Functions and the Autoregressive Conditional Duration Model.” The Econometrics Journal 3 (1): 16–38. https://doi.org/10.1111/1368-423x.00037.Search in Google Scholar

Grammig, J., and M. Wellner. 2002. “Modeling the Interdependence of Volatility and Inter-transaction Duration Processes.” Journal of Econometrics 106 (2): 369–400. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(01)00105-1.Search in Google Scholar

Greene, W. H. 1994. Accounting for Excess Zeros and Sample Selection in Poisson and Negative Binomial Regression Models. http://ssrn.com/abstract=1293115.Search in Google Scholar

Grimshaw, S. D., J. McDonald, G. R. McQueen, and S. Thorley. 2005. “Estimating Hazard Functions for Discrete Lifetimes.” Communications in Statistics – Simulation and Computation 34 (2): 451–63. https://doi.org/10.1081/SAC-200055732.Search in Google Scholar

Harvey, AC. 2013. Dynamic Models for Volatility and Heavy Tails: With Applications to Financial and Economic Time Series, 1st ed. New York: Cambridge University Press.10.1017/CBO9781139540933Search in Google Scholar

Harvey, AC, and R Ito. 2020. “Modeling Time Series when Some Observations Are Zero.” Journal of Econometrics 214 (1): 33–45. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2019.05.003.Search in Google Scholar

Hautsch, N. 2001. “Modelling Intraday Trading Activity Using Box-Cox ACD Models.” https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.289643. https://ssrn.com/abstract=289643.Search in Google Scholar

Hautsch, N. 2003. “Assessing the Risk of Liquidity Suppliers on the Basis of Excess Demand Intensities.” Journal of Financial Econometrics 1 (2): 189–215. https://doi.org/10.1093/jjfinec/nbg010.Search in Google Scholar

Hautsch, N. 2012. Econometrics of Financial High-Frequency Data, 1st ed. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer.10.1007/978-3-642-21925-2Search in Google Scholar

Hautsch, N., P. Malec, and M. Schienle. 2014. “Capturing the Zero: A New Class of Zero-Augmented Distributions and Multiplicative Error Processes.” Journal of Financial Econometrics 12 (1): 89–121. https://doi.org/10.1093/jjfinec/nbt002.Search in Google Scholar

Herrera, R., and B. Schipp. 2013. “Value at Risk Forecasts by Extreme Value Models in a Conditional Duration Framework.” Journal of Empirical Finance 23: 33–47. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2013.05.002.Search in Google Scholar

Holý, V. 2020. “Impact of the Parametrization and the Scaling Function in Dynamic Score-Driven Models: The Case of the Negative Binomial Distribution.” in Proceedings of the 38th International Conference Mathematical Methods in Economics, 173–179. Brno, Brno: Mendel University. https://mme2020.mendelu.cz/wcd/w-rek-mme/mme2020_conference_proceedings_final.pdf.Search in Google Scholar

Holý, V., and P. Tomanová. 2022. “Modeling Price Clustering in High-Frequency Prices.” Quantitative Finance 22 (9): 1649–63. https://doi.org/10.1080/14697688.2022.2050285.Search in Google Scholar

Hujer, R., S. Vuletic, and S. Kokot. 2005. The Markov Switching ACD Model.Search in Google Scholar

Jasiak, J. 1998. “Persistence in Intertrade Durations.” Finance 19: 166–95. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.162008.Search in Google Scholar

Jeyasreedharan, N., D. E. Allen, and J. W. Yang. 2014. “Yet Another ACD Model: The Autoregressive Conditional Directio, Allen, and Yangnal Duration (ACDD) Model.” Annals of Financial Economics 9 (1): 1450004/1–20. https://doi.org/10.1142/S2010495214500043.Search in Google Scholar

Konishi, S., and G. Kitagawa. 2008. Information Criteria and Statistical Modeling. Springer Series in Statistics. New York: Springer.10.1007/978-0-387-71887-3Search in Google Scholar

Koopman, S. J., and R. Lit. 2019. “Forecasting Football Match Results in National League Competitions Using Score-Driven Time Series Models.” International Journal of Forecasting 35 (2): 797–809. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.10.011.Search in Google Scholar

Koopman, S. J., R. Lit, A. Lucas, and A. Opschoor. 2018. “Dynamic Discrete Copula Models for High-Frequency Stock Price Changes.” Journal of Applied Econometrics 33 (7): 966–85. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.2645.Search in Google Scholar

Koopman, S. J., A. Lucas, and M. Scharth. 2016. “Predicting Time-Varying Parameters with Parameter-Driven and Observation-Driven Models.” The Review of Economics and Statistics 98 (1): 97–110. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00533.Search in Google Scholar

Lambert, D. 1992. “Zero-Inflated Poisson Regression, with an Application to Defects in Manufacturing.” Technometrics 34 (1): 1–14. https://doi.org/10.2307/1269547.Search in Google Scholar

Leiva, V., H. Saulo, J. Leão, and C. Marchant. 2014. “A Family of Autoregressive Conditional Duration Models Applied to Financial Data.” Computational Statistics & Data Analysis 79: 175–91. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csda.2014.05.016.Search in Google Scholar

Li, W., and Z. D. Bai. 2011. “Analysis of Accumulated Rounding Errors in Autoregressive Processes.” Journal of Time Series Analysis 32 (5): 518–30. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9892.2010.00710.x.Search in Google Scholar

Liu, Z., X. B. Kong, and B. Y. Jing. 2018. “Estimating the Integrated Volatility Using High-Frequency Data with Zero Durations.” Journal of Econometrics 204 (1): 18–32. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2017.12.008.Search in Google Scholar

Lunde, A. 1999. A Generalized Gamma Autoregressive Conditional Duration Model. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/228464216.Search in Google Scholar

Mishra, A., and T. V. Ramanathan. 2017. “Nonstationary Autoregressive Conditional Duration Models.” Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics 21 (4): 1–22. https://doi.org/10.1515/snde-2015-0057.Search in Google Scholar

Pacurar, M. 2008. “Autoregressive Conditional Duration Models in Finance: A Survey of the Theoretical and Empirical Literature.” Journal of Economic Surveys 22 (4): 711–51. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-6419.2007.00547.x.Search in Google Scholar

Rao, R. R. 1962. “Relations between Weak and Uniform Convergence of Measures with Applications.” The Annals of Mathematical Statistics 33 (2): 659–80. https://doi.org/10.2307/2237541.Search in Google Scholar

Russell, J. R., and R. F. Engle. 2005. “A Discrete-State Continuous-Time Model of Financial Transactions Prices and Times: The Autoregressive Conditional Multinomial-Autoregressive Conditional Duration Model.” Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 23 (2): 166–80. https://doi.org/10.1198/073500104000000541.Search in Google Scholar

Saranjeet, K. B., and T. V. Ramanathan. 2018. “Conditional Duration Models for High-Frequency Data: A Review on Recent Developments.” Journal of Economic Surveys 33 (1): 252–73. https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12261.Search in Google Scholar

Schneeweiss, H., J. Komlos, and A. S. Ahmad. 2010. “Symmetric and Asymmetric Rounding: A Review and Some New Results.” AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis 94 (3): 247–71. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10182-010-0125-2.Search in Google Scholar

Sin, C. Y., and H. White. 1996. “Information Criteria for Selecting Possibly Misspecified Parametric Models.” Journal of Econometrics 71 (1-2): 207–25. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)01701-8.Search in Google Scholar

Stacy, E. W. 1962. “A Generalization of the Gamma Distribution.” The Annals of Mathematical Statistics 33 (3): 1187–92. https://doi.org/10.2307/2237889.Search in Google Scholar

Straumann, D., and T. Mikosch. 2006. “Quasi-Maximum-Likelihood Estimation in Conditionally Heteroscedastic Time Series: A Stochastic Recurrence Equations Approach.” Annals of Statistics 34 (5): 2449–95. https://doi.org/10.1214/009053606000000803.Search in Google Scholar

Taraldsen, G. 2011. “Analysis of Rounded Exponential Data.” Journal of Applied Statistics 38 (5): 977–86. https://doi.org/10.1080/02664761003692431.Search in Google Scholar

Tomanová, P., and V. Holý. 2021. “Clustering of Arrivals in Queueing Systems: Autoregressive Conditional Duration Approach.” Central European Journal of Operations Research 29 (3): 859–74. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10100-021-00744-7.Search in Google Scholar

Tricker, A. R. 1992. “Estimation of Parameters for Rounded Data from Non-Normal Distributions.” Journal of Applied Statistics 19 (4): 465–71. https://doi.org/10.1080/02664769200000041.Search in Google Scholar

Tricker, T. 1984. “Effects of Rounding Data Sampled from the Exponential Distribution.” Journal of Applied Statistics 11 (1): 54–87. https://doi.org/10.1080/02664768400000007.Search in Google Scholar

Veredas, D., J. M. Rodríguez-Poo, and A. Espasa. 2002. On the (Intradaily) Seasonality and Dynamics of a Financial Point Process: A Semiparametric Approach. https://ideas.repec.org/p/cor/louvco/2002023.html.Search in Google Scholar

White, H. 1994. Estimation, Inference and Specification Analysis, 1st ed. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.10.1017/CCOL0521252806Search in Google Scholar

Wintenberger, O. 2013. “Continuous Invertibility and Stable QML Estimation of the EGARCH(1,1) Model.” Scandinavian Journal of Statistics 40 (4): 846–67. https://doi.org/10.1111/sjos.12038.Search in Google Scholar

Xu, D., J. Knight, and T. S. Wirjanto. 2011. “Asymmetric Stochastic Conditional Duration Model - A Mixture-Of-Normal Approach.” Journal of Financial Econometrics 9 (3): 469–88. https://doi.org/10.1093/jjfinec/nbq026.Search in Google Scholar

Xu, Y. 2013. The Lognormal Autoregressive Conditional Duration (LNACD) Model and a Comparison with an Alternative ACD Models. https://ssrn.com/abstract=2382159.10.2139/ssrn.2382159Search in Google Scholar

Zhang, B., T. Liu, and Z. D. Bai. 2010. “Analysis of Rounded Data from Dependent Sequences.” Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics 62 (6): 1143–73. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10463-009-0224-6.Search in Google Scholar

Zhang, M. Y., J. R. Russell, and R. S. Tsay. 2001. “A Nonlinear Autoregressive Conditional Duration Model with Applications to Financial Transaction Data.” Journal of Econometrics 104 (1): 179–207. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0304-4076(01)00063-x.Search in Google Scholar

Zheng, Y., Y. Li, and G. Li. 2016. “On Fréchet Autoregressive Conditional Duration Models.” Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 175: 51–66. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jspi.2016.02.009.Search in Google Scholar


Supplementary Material

This article contains supplementary material (https://doi.org/10.1515/snde-2022-0008).


Received: 2022-01-31
Accepted: 2023-10-17
Published Online: 2023-11-16

© 2023 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston

Downloaded on 28.12.2024 from https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.1515/snde-2022-0008/pdf
Scroll to top button